Dengue Mathematical Model

The Defense Health Agency, through the United States Army Medical Research Acquisition Activity (USAMRAA), has published a Special Notice for a sole source contract to develop mathematical models for Dengue Virus (DENV) infection research. This Justification and Approval (J&A) document, posted on December 11, 2025, announces the agency's intent to award a contract to Johns Hopkins University for a two-year period with a potential one-year option, extending from August 2025 through August 2027. The sole source procurement is being used because Johns Hopkins University possesses unique, pre-established mathematical models, proprietary datasets, and specialized expertise in infectious disease modeling that cannot be replicated by competing contractors within a reasonable timeframe. Market research conducted from September through November 2024 and a subsequent Request for Information posted on January 29, 2025 yielded no acceptable alternative proposals, further supporting the sole source justification.

The primary objective of this contract is to develop mathematical models that will quantify the probability of DENV infection, severity of illness, and infection risk for United States military personnel deployed to specific geographic locations at designated times, thereby supporting military readiness and force protection. The contract supports critical applied research in health services and infectious disease modeling, classified under NAICS code 541715 (Research and Development in the Physical, Engineering, and Life Sciences) and PSC code AN12. Due to the sole source nature of this procurement, interested parties should note the December 17, 2025 deadline, though this Special Notice serves primarily as a transparency posting rather than an open competition opportunity. Only Johns Hopkins University is eligible to respond to this specific contract award, as the sole source justification has already been approved based on the organization's unique capabilities and the government's prior determination that no other entity can meet the accelerated timeline and technical requirements for this military medical research initiative.