STRI BAA Amendment 1 for HDTRA124S0003_Final_080224.pdf

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STRATEGIC TRENDS RESEARCH INITIATIVE

BROAD AGENCY ANNOUNCEMENT

HDTRA1-24-S-0003

AMENDMENT 01

Disclaimer: The Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 research priorities contained in this document outline potential topics of future international dialogues, analytical studies, and other research projects and directly support DTRA’s mission to deter strategic attack against the United States and its allies; prevent, reduce, and counter weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and emerging threats; and prevail against WMD-armed adversaries in crisis and conflict.

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This amendment updates Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) HDTRA1-24-S-0003 as specified below. Please refer to the BAA for all other guidance and requirements.

1. Research Topic Information Session (RTIS, or “Industry Day”) Fiscal Year 2025 (FY25)

a. DTRA Strategic Trends Office (SI-ST) will hold a virtual RTIS for interested participants on Thursday, August 22, 2024 from 1:00 p.m. to 2:30 p.m. EDT. The RTIS will brief details of the new BAA HDTRA1-24-S-0003, including revised thrust areas, and highlight FY25 research priorities, submission deadlines for priority review of white papers, and other administrative information.

Participants will have the opportunity to ask questions about research priorities and other BAA-related contractual and administrative topics.

b. To register for the RTIS, please go to: https://osbp.my.site.com/EventRegistration/s/, select “DTRA Strategic Trends Research FY2025 Virtual Industry Day” from the dropdown list, and fill in the required information. Please note the following fields are required when completing event registration:

i. Company Name

ii. First Name

iii. Last Name

iv. US Citizen (select “Yes” or “No”)

c. Registration will close at 11:59 p.m. EDT on Monday, August 19, 2024. On Wednesday, August 21, 2024 DTRA SI-ST will send a link for the virtual session on the Zoom4Gov platform. All participants must register individually to receive the Zoom link.

d. If you encounter technical difficulties when registering, please take a screen shot of the error message and email it with your contact information to DTRA-SB-Outreach@mail.mil. All other questions should be directed to the Strategic Trends Research Initiative email address:

dtra.belvoir.si.mbx.hdtra1-stri-adm@mail.mil. Please do not contact DTRA SI-ST personnel directly with questions, inquiries, or registration requests.

2. Anticipated Open Period

a. Please submit white papers by 11:59 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, September 18, 2024. Papers received by this date will be reviewed concurrently for FY25 funding consideration. Submissions received after the 11:59 p.m. EDT Wednesday, September 18, 2024 “deadline,” will be reviewed on an as-received basis, but not until those submitted by the suspense have been reviewed.

b. DTRA accepts white paper submissions on a rolling basis throughout the entire year but institutes priority review periods as a planning and work management mechanism.

c. DTRA will not consider project submissions that delay contracted work until FY26 (after October 1, 2025). For priority FY26 funding consideration, please monitor SAM.gov for forthcoming amendments outlining research priorities for FY26.

d. DTRA SI-ST implements a two-stage review process; do not submit a proposal unless a Request for Proposal is tendered from DTRA SI-ST, following a successful white paper stage. Proposals received prior to a successful white paper review will be rejected without consideration.

https://osbp.my.site.com/EventRegistration/s/ mailto:DTRA-SB-Outreach@mail.mil mailto:dtra.belvoir.si.mbx.hdtra1-stri-adm@mail.mil https://sam.gov/content/home

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3. FY25 Research Priorities

a. As described in BAA Section IV.E.3, this section provides the specific research priorities for FY25 within each of the thrust areas. Interested applicants should review the BAA to ensure all submissions meet the general requirements listed therein.

b. This section should be reviewed in conjunction with BAA Section IV.E.1, Areas of General Interest, and Section IV.F, Research Thrust Areas.

c. These specific priorities remain in effect until replaced by another amendment that outlines research priorities. These FY25 priorities supersede the research priorities identified in amendments under previous BAAs.

d. Specific priorities are as follows:

i. Weapons of mass destruction (WMD)-relevant strategic international dialogues

a. Strategic dialogues with Japan and Australia and other allies on responses to nuclear use by adversaries and approaches for strengthening U.S. and allied (especially Japan and Australia) resiliency and survivability in WMD conflicts, including the ability to operate in contaminated environments.

b. Multilateral dialogues that include (but are not necessarily limited to) Southeast Asian nations (e.g., the Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam) on nuclear weapons threats in the Indo-Pacific and possible measures for deterrence, resilience, and risk reduction.

c. Track 1.5 dialogues on understanding nuclear perceptions, nuclear strategy and stability, and nuclear crisis dynamics to reduce nuclear escalation dynamics.

d. Strategic dialogues on risk reduction approaches, potential future arms control arrangements, and formal agreements.

e. Multilateral dialogues with allies and partners on potential collective, integrated responses to Iranian WMD threats or potential WMD use.

f. Strategic dialogues that yield insights into how protracted military conflict in Europe or the Indo-Pacific might impact the United States’ ability to deter and/or prevent future escalation or conflict with Iran, and associated implications and possible solutions.

g. Strategic dialogues with Indo-Pacific countries along the first island chain on potential concepts for increased access and basing rights for U.S. forces.

h. Multilateral dialogues with selected North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) states examining possible outcomes to the Ukraine war.

i. Strategic dialogues that explore and further refine U.S. extended deterrence alliances in Europe and the Indo-Pacific to enable new approaches to defense cooperation and coordination in a multipolar environment, with an emphasis on strengthening allied assurance and deepening defense cooperation with the Republic of Korea (ROK) and Japan in the Indo-Pacific, and Poland and the Baltic States in NATO.

j. Multilateral dialogues with Indo-Pacific allies and partners to explore cooperative approaches to constraining adversary access to dual-use technologies that support WMD (nuclear, chemical, biological) development.

k. Bilateral or multilateral dialogues focused on deepening U.S. and allied defense ties with India.

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l. Dialogues seeking to understand how adversaries’ use of foreign malign influence impacts nuclear deterrence through changing perceptions about the United States and its adversaries, particularly their withdrawal or hesitancy to join major international treaties related to nuclear weapons movement, storage, and retention.

ii. WMD-relevant analytical studies

a. Studies on the present state of U.S. conventional-nuclear integration in the Indo-Pacific, gaps in integration, and the associated implications for the U.S. ability to effectively deter or prevail in a conflict with nuclear-armed powers, including conflicts heavily involving the space and cyber domains, and potential solutions.

b. Studies exploring the extent and characteristics of adversary conventional-nuclear integration and determining possible verification measures for the United States and its allies to distinguish weapons systems in a crisis or conflict.

c. Studies that yield insights on the requirements for an enhanced, integrated military posture in the Indo-Pacific theater between the United States and its allies and partners and concepts that could meet these requirements.

d. Studies examining operational concepts for modern nuclear signaling and the potential benefits and risks to U.S. and allied interests.

e. Studies examining creative and innovative concepts and tools for future arms control arrangements, including potential informal options, options for environments in which regular on-site inspection is not feasible, and consideration for new or emerging types of weapons systems.

f. Studies exploring specific concepts and potential solutions for addressing Iran’s nuclear program in the post–Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) environment.

g. Studies examining the implications of emerging technological concepts and systems on WMD development, security of current WMD programs, and deterrence and escalation dynamics. Quantum technology, biotechnology, nanotechnology, neurotechnology, and cognitive technology are of particular interest.

h. Studies examining how Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning (AI/ML) might be applied to generate novel or enhance existing pathogens, chemicals, or toxins for weapons purposes and associated implications and possible solutions to address these concerns and challenges and to enable the United States and its allies and partners to deter, prevent, or respond to adversary development and/or use of AI/ML in these ways.

i. Studies addressing WMD- and deterrence-related implications for advancements in small modular reactor (SMR) technology and possible solutions/approaches.

j. Studies exploring trends related to advances (including by strategic adversaries) in missile and space technology and the implications for U.S. and allied strategic and operational advantage as well as possible solutions.

k. Studies examining the possible trajectories of National Defense Strategy (NDS) adversary defense and warfighting cooperation (including in the WMD sphere), adversary integrated deterrence strategies, and possible future adversarial partnerships and combined forces and the implications for the United States and its allies.

l. Studies addressing emerging and future arms control challenges in the absence of on-site inspection measures, including verifying weapons in outer space, differentiating

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between retired warheads awaiting dismantlement and unretired warheads, and distinguishing between nuclear and non-nuclear variants of the same system.

m. Studies exploring innovative solutions to address arms control challenges. For example, use of emerging technologies and improved application of commercial overhead sensing capabilities to arms control monitoring and verification.

n. Studies examining potential adversary threats to the U.S. strategic nuclear deterrent and U.S. nuclear surety over the next 5–10 years.

o. Studies addressing emergent chemical and biological weapons threats (including toxins).

p. Studies identifying and predicting emerging foreign malign influence tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) employed by adversaries to erode trust in DTRA (and partner) missions, personnel, and reputation, such as the use of common pathways consisting of online media platforms (especially newer multimedia platforms), traditional media, online communities, key influencers, and new Artificial Intelligence-enabled messaging, with an emphasis on pathway and other TTP identification that supports prediction and illuminates the role of online platforms.

q. Studies identifying recommended U.S. Government (USG) best practices related to public affairs communication to foreign target audiences using accurate and attributed messaging preemptively in support of USG and partner countering weapons of mass destruction (CWMD) efforts and related activities or to counter adversary foreign malign influence.

r. Studies exploring the impacts of advanced conventional systems/munitions (e.g., the impact of hypersonic missiles on nuclear deterrence and escalation dynamics).

iii. WMD-relevant emerging CWMD researcher projects (Note: These developmental projects, aimed at new researchers within the CWMD community, should be smaller in scale or less complex than those completed by seasoned researchers. Topics picked from the study research priorities indicated above should be scoped to accommodate learning of historical concepts and applications as well as examining new aspects. A seasoned mentor must be identified and will be responsible for contract completion should the new researcher prove unable. Ideally, these studies should involve other new researchers beyond the contracted team where possible, e.g., inviting additional new researchers to participate in roundtables/workshops. DTRA SI-ST is not accepting emerging researcher projects that include international efforts, i.e., dialogues with allies/partners.)

a. Studies examining concepts for future deterrence approaches.

b. Studies examining concepts for future risk reduction and arms control options for chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) capabilities and emerging/disruptive science and technology (S&T).

c. Studies exploring adversary prioritization of emerging and disruptive technologies to enable USG optimization of resources and efforts to address these threats.

d. Studies focused on the potential threats at the nexus of warfighting domains and adversary CBRN capabilities.

e. Studies exploring simultaneity, multi-actor deterrence, and escalation management.

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4. Submission Instructions. White papers must be submitted according to the instructions outlined in BAA Section X, Submission Instructions.

5. Contact Information. To submit questions regarding this BAA and its contents or to otherwise contact the SI-ST team, please email dtra.belvoir.si.mbx.hdtra1-stri-Adm@mail.mil.

mailto:dtra.belvoir.si.mbx.hdtra1-stri-Adm@mail.mil