SSJF B-43814 Population Estimates Program.pdf

Sole Source Justification Form

Version 7.01 Page 1 of 7

Bulletin Reference Number 25-444DHS-CONTO-B-43814

Requesting Agency/University Illinois Department of Human Services

Sole Source Justification Form - Part I Section I - General Information

Department/Bureau/Section: Department of Human Services/Family & Community Services

Need Identified Date: Apr 22, 2024 Supply/Service Need By Date: Jul 29, 2024

Project Title: Illinois Population Estimates Program

Vendor: National Opinion Resource Center (NORC) at University of Chicago

Provide a description of the supplies or services required:

To position Illinois to monitor, understand, and report ongoing population trends by identifying sources of information gathered by State agencies.

Until now, the State has relied exclusively on the Census Bureau for annual estimates of population at state, county, and local levels. National Opinion Resource Center at University of Chicago (NORC) will assist the State in building capacity so it can use its own administrative records to produce more timely and accurate independent population estimates

Value: Actual Value of Initial Term, this Change Order or Amendment: 870,847

Will this Sole Source amend a Professional or Artistic Services contract? Yes No

*Sole Source may not be used for amendments for Professional or Artistic Services if the amendment would increase the value by more than 5% of the initial award or extend the term by more than 60 days.

Type: New Sole Economically Feasible Source

Section II - Proposed Term

One-Time Purchase Term Contract

Estimated Contract Begin Date: Jul 29, 2024

Estimated Contract End Date: Jul 28, 2025

Number of Potential Renewals: 0

Length of Each Renewal in Months: 0

Total Value of All Renewals: 0

If a Term Contract, does the term, including renewals, exceed 12 months? Yes No

Section III - Funding Source Select the type of funding to be used (Check all that apply): State Appropriate Funds Federal Funds Other (Explain):

Section IV - Sole Source Justification

This purchase is economically only available from a single source primarily because it is: (If "Other" explain in one sentence)

Compatibility of Equipment, Accessories, Replacement Parts or Service

Are there secondary justification(s) for this sole source? Yes No

Version 7.01 Page 2 of 7

Bulletin Reference Number 25-444DHS-CONTO-B-43814

Requesting Agency/University Illinois Department of Human Services

Section V - Purchase History

Has the Agency or University Purchased these supplies or services in the past? Yes No

Term Term From Term To Value Description Contract Number Type

1 Jul 31, 2023 Oct 27, 2023 660,734 Census Appeal B-38047 Emergency

2 Oct 27, 2024 Apr 26, 2024 0 Census Appeal B-39497 Emergency Extension

3 Apr 29, 2024 Jul 27, 2024 89,917 Census Appeal B-42951 Emergency

If more than 10, or if other comments, explain:

Section VI - Business Rationale

1. Provide a detailed explanation of the need for the supplies or services:

Illinois requires the means for monitoring state population trends. Using its own extant data to meet the continuous requests for more and more granular and current information, the State needs to provide up to date and accurate data sets. Establishing an Illinois population estimates program enables the State to generate county-level estimates of population and population change on an annual basis using State administrative records.

In response to information, the State of Illinois currently relies on the decennial US Census Bureau for population estimates at the state, county, and municipal levels. These once every 10 year estimates are relied upon for governmental decision-making and planning at all levels. They also factor into funding allocations across federal and state agencies. Though the Census Bureau strives to produce the highest quality population estimates, there is evidence that the Census Bureau is potentially overestimating population loss for Illinois and its counties. Without independent state-produced population estimates, the State of Illinois is not well-positioned to assess the accuracy of the Census Bureau population estimates, let alone formally challenge the Census Bureau to rectify any possible errors and provide accurate data in response to future requests.

Version 7.01 Page 3 of 7

Bulletin Reference Number 25-444DHS-CONTO-B-43814

Requesting Agency/University Illinois Department of Human Services

2. Provide a list and describe in detail the specifications required to satisfy the need:

The specifications needed to enable the State to monitor and report population trends with greater accuracy and efficiency are to utilize IDOR tax records and IDPH vital statistics in population estimations, as well as data from other State agencies - for both past and future reporting needs.

COMPLETE DATA ACQUISITION and ANALYSIS from the IDOR and IDPH datasets. This will include a(n):

- ADDRESS-LEVEL ANALYSIS using the data from IDOR. Clean, standardize and geocode addresses as part of the filer address information analysis and enter into the annual Illinois master address file (IMAF). Addresses must be linked to other available address databases for the State including the US Department of Transportation (USDOT) National Address Database and the USPS master address file.

- INDIVIDUAL-LEVEL ANALYSIS

Use the tax records to estimate counts of filers by geography each tax year and compare these counts to population counts from the Census Bureau. Assess the stability of these counts and identify potential idiosyncrasies in filing behavior. Identify individuals each tax year and the extent they move between counties in Illinois. Compare the intrastate county-to-county flows of filers and/or tax units with those published in the IRS SOI county-to-county tables. Evaluate the ability of the tax records to provide reliable estimates of out-flow from the state (i.e. when someone files from Illinois one year and a different state the following year). Integrate Address and Individual level analysis for predictive abilities.

- DETERMINE SUMMARY ESTIMATES OF POPULATION AND SUMMARY ESTIMATES OF POPULATION FLOWS Deliverable: Summary counts by county; uncontrolled summary estimates of inter-county flows; uncontrolled summary estimates of state in-flow and out-flow.

- ANALYSIS OF BIRTH AND DEATH RECORDS FROM IDPH OFFICE OF VITAL STATISTICS

Deliverable: Obtain birth and death counts by county; compare to IDPH and Census Bureau; analyze address and name linkages to IDOR tax records.

- REPORT FINAL POPULATION ESTIMATES AND MEMO

Deliverable: Prepare final population estimates for 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, & 2023 accompanying memo to account for variance.

ENHANCING LINKAGES

Among State agencies, assess the feasibility, benefits and interest in assigning Illinois-wide unique identifiers to replace Social Security Numbers in data gathering. Provide details of the obstacles and opportunities for establishing such a process and outline the level of effort and dedicated resources required to execute it.

ACQUIRING RECORDS FROM OTHER AGENCIES OR STATE OFFICES

Continue outreach to state agencies to hold discussions about administrative records. This task is a continuation of the work already completed under an Emergency contract for population estimation services to challenge the 2020 Census. Other promising administrative records were identified during that initiative at IDES, HFS, and IDOI. The Illinois Secretary of State, Department on Aging and State Board of Eduction will be contacted as well to identify target datasets for acquisition, as well as, any pre-existing data linkage initiatives that may be occurring to determine whether these initiatives can be built upon.

Version 7.01 Page 4 of 7

Bulletin Reference Number 25-444DHS-CONTO-B-43814

Requesting Agency/University Illinois Department of Human Services

3. Provide detail explaining the justification selected in Section IV to explain why the requested supplies or services are the only ones available that can satisfy the agency or university requirements?

The continued development of an organized methodology for gathering and consolidating current, accurate population estimates in a timely manner is critical to ensure the State is able to meet the needs of its population for such essential services as Medicare, affordable housing, homeland security, among many others. The capacity to respond quickly and accurately will address and minimize the financial costs of under-counting when future opportunities arise.

DHS entered 2 emergency and 1 emergency extension contracts for the same services from NORC, albeit on a smaller scale. The engagements with NORC for the 2020 Census appeal required identification of data available at the State for very small and specific segments of the population, including those housed in congregate settings. Upon identification of relevant data, communications and authorizations were required to obtain it. NORC had to clean and convert the data into a format appropriate for manipulation. During the course of the emergency contracts, NORC has performed the foundational groundwork required to immediately begin population estimates on a larger scale. The plan and established processes have been successful and can be applied immediately to derive and merge as yet untapped sources of information at the State.

Given the amount of work NORC has successfully completed over the last several years, NORC is the most economically feasible vendor based on the rationale above. Another vendor would need to duplicate NORC's existing accomplishments thus resulting in delayed implementation and additional cost to Illinois taxpayers.

4. What are the unique features of the supplies or services that are not available in any other product or by any other vendor? Provide specific quantifiable factors/qualifications:

Illinois required expert assistance in the field of population census in August 2023, for the purpose of identifying information sources and correcting the count for Group Quarters in the 2020 Census. A correct count ensures adequate allocation of such essential services as Medicare, Medicaid and affordable housing. The State had the opportunity to make corrections to its 2020 Census submissions due to the great likelihood of an undercount. In selecting a consultant for the work, several qualities were assessed and NORC at the University of Chicago was identified as having the potential to provide the greatest value to the State.

Throughout the next 9 months, additional opportunities arose to correct different population counts reported in 2020. NORC continued to explore State data sources as it responded to each additional corrective opportunity and ultimately created the basic framework which could be instituted for all population estimates, state-wide. Based on their experience and expertise, their plan as itemized in Question 2 will enable efficient delivery of the most accurate results to future data collection and prepare for the 2030 Census.

5. Has the Agency or University considered alternative supplies or services to satisfy their need? Yes No

5a. If no, why weren't alternatives evaluated?

In addition to their substantial expertise and experience, NORC has a significant advantage over any other vendor -- in providing assistance to Illinois in correcting its 2020 Census counts -- they have gained insight into the sources of information available to the State, established methods to download and analyze the information, and established relationships with several State agencies. The correction count work they completed has already resulted in a feasible, proven plan of information gathering.

With their plan already in place, a new vendor would need at least six months to repeat the work already performed by NORC, making NORC the economically feasible option.

6. Are there resellers or distributors?

Yes No N/A

7. What efforts were made to get the best possible price (i.e. did the agency/university negotiate) and how did you determine the price for this purchase is considered fair and reasonable?

The rates charged by NORC as a not for profit, affiliated with an Illinois institution of Higher Education, were determined to be in line with pricing for similar resources and expertise in agreements with other public institutions. Given NORC's previously completed work, they are able to quickly jump in and pick up where work left off. Contracting with a new vendor would result in duplicative time and work "educating" the vendor, excessive expenditure, and delay the State's response time.

Version 7.01 Page 5 of 7

Bulletin Reference Number 25-444DHS-CONTO-B-43814

Requesting Agency/University Illinois Department of Human Services

8. Will this purchase obligate the State to this vendor for future purchases such as maintenance, licensing or continuing need?

Yes No

9. What will be the financial or other impact to the State if this sole source is not approved and a competitive bid is required?

This work is of utmost urgency. If this Sole Source is not approved for FY25, the timelines necessary in order to establish a centralized, population estimation capacity in order to accommodate requests for community counts will be jeopardized. Moreover, the previous cost, time, and effort already spent on this work will be abandon, instead of harnessed for future responses. States including California and New York began preparation for the 2020 Census more than 3 years in advance, enabling them to claim the maximum benefits available. Federal money must be shared between states and without an accurate count, Illinois will not receive adequate benefits available to them.

10. Is there any additional information you would like to add to justify this sole source?

N/A

Version 7.01 Page 6 of 7

Bulletin Reference Number 25-444DHS-CONTO-B-43814

Requesting Agency/University Illinois Department of Human Services

Section VII

Requesting Department Representative

Requesting Department Signature Required

I know and understand the contents of this Sole Source Justification and attest that all statements are true and correct and the fairness and reasonableness of the price was adequately confirmed.

Date Jul 2, 2024

Printed Name Lila Robinson E-mail Address Lila.Robinson@illinois.gov

Phone Number 217/638-0408

State Agency Bureau/Division Head or University Purchasing Director Approval and Signature Required

I know and understand the contents of this Sole Source Justification and attest that all statements are true and correct and the fairness and reasonableness of the price was adequately confirmed. (All prior form fields will lock once this e-signature is completed)

E-mail Address Jean.Sandstrom@illinois.gov

Phone Number 217-557-9298 Date Jul 2, 2024

Printed Name Jean Sandstrom

Agency Bureau/Division Head or University Purchasing Director and Not a Designee

SPO Approval and Signature Required

I have reviewed and understand the contents of this Sole Source Justification and agree with the State Agency or University determination.

I have reviewed and understand the contents of this Sole Source Justification and do not agree with the State Agency or University determination. As a result, the State Agency or University must explore other sourcing methods to satisfy their need.

State Purchasing Officer Signature Phone Number (217) 494-1354 Date 7/3/2024

Printed Name Adrienne Grover E-mail Address adrienne.grover@illinois.gov

Version 7.01 Page 7 of 7

Bulletin Reference Number 25-444DHS-CONTO-B-43814

Requesting Agency/University Illinois Department of Human Services

Sole Source Justification Form - Part II Section I - General Information

Project Title Illinois Population Estimates Program

Vendor National Opinion Resource Center (NORC) at University of Chicago

Initial Date of Procurement Bulletin Posting Jul 3, 2024

Was a Sole Source hearing held per 30 ILCS 500/20-25?

Yes - Complete Section II and III below (Section II will only be visible when this option is selected)

No - Section II not required, go to Section III below Section III - CPO Approval and Signature Required

Based on my review, I authorize the Agency/University to proceed in accordance with the published Notice referenced above.

Based upon my review, I authorize the Agency/University to proceed with the following Changes.

Based on my review, the Agency/University is not authorized to proceed with this sole source as presented and my recommendation is that it be cancelled.

Other

CPO Signature CPO Phone 217-558-2231

Printed Name Ellen H. Daley Date

CPO E-mail Ellen.H.Daley@illinois.gov

Version 7.01 Page of Sole Source Justification Form - Part I Section I - General Information Will this Sole Source amend a Professional or Artistic Services contract?

If yes, what was the original contract value?

*Sole Source may not be used for amendments for Professional or Artistic Services if the amendment would increase the value by more than 5% of the initial award or extend the term by more than 60 days.

Section II - Proposed Term If a Term Contract, does the term, including renewals, exceed 12 months?

If yes, provide a detailed justification including any economic benefit received for agreeing to a multi-year term:

Section III - Funding Source Select the type of funding to be used (Check all that apply):

Section IV - Sole Source Justification Are there secondary justification(s) for this sole source?

Section V - Purchase History Has the Agency or University Purchased these supplies or services in the past?

Term Term From Term To Value Description Contract Number Type Section VI - Business Rationale

1. Provide a detailed explanation of the need for the supplies or services:

2. Provide a list and describe in detail the specifications required to satisfy the need:

3. Provide detail explaining the justification selected in Section IV to explain why the requested supplies or services are the only ones available that can satisfy the agency or university requirements?

4. What are the unique features of the supplies or services that are not available in any other product or by any other vendor? Provide specific quantifiable factors/qualifications:

5. Has the Agency or University considered alternative supplies or services to satisfy their need?

5a. If yes, name the alternative vendors whose supplies or services were evaluated:

5b. If yes, what were the alternatives for each vendor and why were they unacceptable? Be specific with regard to features, characteristics, requirements, capabilities and compatibility:

5c. Explain how the market evaluation was conducted?

*This evaluation is to determine available options within a market. If the evaluation is to determine quality or best suited option, this is not the appropriate source selection. Under no circumstances shall the evaluation consist of testing alternative options. These activities must be conducted in a competitive transparent environment (i.e. IFB or RFP).

5a. If no, why weren't alternatives evaluated?

6. Are there resellers or distributors?

7. What efforts were made to get the best possible price (i.e. did the agency/university negotiate) and how did you determine the price for this purchase is considered fair and reasonable?

8. Will this purchase obligate the State to this vendor for future purchases such as maintenance, licensing or continuing need?

8a. If yes, please provide details regarding future obligations and/or needs:

9. What will be the financial or other impact to the State if this sole source is not approved and a competitive bid is required?

10. Is there any additional information you would like to add to justify this sole source?

Section VII Requesting Department Signature Required I know and understand the contents of this Sole Source Justification and attest that all statements are true and correct and the fairness and reasonableness of the price was adequately confirmed.

State Agency Bureau/Division Head or University Purchasing Director Approval and Signature Required I know and understand the contents of this Sole Source Justification and attest that all statements are true and correct and the fairness and reasonableness of the price was adequately confirmed. (All prior form fields will lock once this e-signature is completed) SPO Approval and Signature Required Sole Source Justification Form - Part II Section I - General Information Was a Sole Source hearing held per 30 ILCS 500/20-25?

Section II - Sole Source Hearing Details The State posted to the Illinois Procurement Bulletin a description of the State's need, the justification for the sole source decision, and information regarding the opportunity to submit comments and testify at a public hearing. Notice of the hearing was also posted outside of the hearing room 48 hours prior to the hearing.

The public hearing was conducted for the purpose of receiving testimony regarding the sole source determination. The Hearing Officer recommends the following:

The following relevant documents are attached:

Section III - CPO Approval and Signature Required 9.0.0.2.20101008.1.734229 Ellen.H.Daley@illinois.gov

estimates of population at state, county, and local levels. National Opinion Resource Center at University of Chicago (NORC) will assist the State in building capacity so it can use its own administrative records to produce more timely and accurate independent population estimates

In response to information, the State of Illinois currently relies on the decennial US Census Bureau for population estimates at the state, county, and municipal levels. These once every 10 year estimates are relied upon for governmental decision-making and planning at all levels. They also factor into funding allocations across federal and state agencies. Though the Census Bureau strives to produce the highest quality population estimates, there is evidence that the Census Bureau is potentially overestimating population loss for Illinois and its counties. Without independent state-produced population estimates, the State of Illinois is not well-positioned to assess the accuracy of the Census Bureau population estimates, let alone formally challenge the Census Bureau to rectify any possible errors and provide accurate data in response to future requests.

Q2Answer: The specifications needed to enable the State to monitor and report population trends with greater accuracy and efficiency are to utilize IDOR tax records and IDPH vital statistics in population estimations, as well as data from other State agencies - for both past and future reporting needs.

COMPLETE DATA ACQUISITION and ANALYSIS from the IDOR and IDPH datasets. This will include a(n):

- ADDRESS-LEVEL ANALYSIS using the data from IDOR. Clean, standardize and geocode addresses as part of the filer address information analysis and enter into the annual Illinois master address file (IMAF). Addresses must be linked to other available address databases for the State including the US Department of Transportation (USDOT) National Address Database and the USPS master address file.

- INDIVIDUAL-LEVEL ANALYSIS

Use the tax records to estimate counts of filers by geography each tax year and compare these counts to population counts from the Census Bureau. Assess the stability of these counts and identify potential idiosyncrasies in filing behavior. Identify individuals each tax year and the extent they move between counties in Illinois. Compare the intrastate county-to-county flows of filers and/or tax units with those published in the IRS SOI county-to-county tables. Evaluate the ability of the tax records to provide reliable estimates of out-flow from the state (i.e. when someone files from Illinois one year and a different state the following year). Integrate Address and Individual level analysis for predictive abilities.

- DETERMINE SUMMARY ESTIMATES OF POPULATION AND SUMMARY ESTIMATES OF POPULATION FLOWS Deliverable: Summary counts by county; uncontrolled summary estimates of inter-county flows; uncontrolled summary estimates of state in-flow and out-flow.

- ANALYSIS OF BIRTH AND DEATH RECORDS FROM IDPH OFFICE OF VITAL STATISTICS

Deliverable: Obtain birth and death counts by county; compare to IDPH and Census Bureau; analyze address and name linkages to IDOR tax records.

- REPORT FINAL POPULATION ESTIMATES AND MEMO

Deliverable: Prepare final population estimates for 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, & 2023 accompanying memo to account for variance.

ENHANCING LINKAGES

Among State agencies, assess the feasibility, benefits and interest in assigning Illinois-wide unique identifiers to replace Social Security Numbers in data gathering. Provide details of the obstacles and opportunities for establishing such a process and outline the level of effort and dedicated resources required to execute it.

ACQUIRING RECORDS FROM OTHER AGENCIES OR STATE OFFICES

Continue outreach to state agencies to hold discussions about administrative records. This task is a continuation of the work already completed under an Emergency contract for population estimation services to challenge the 2020 Census. Other promising administrative records were identified during that initiative at IDES, HFS, and IDOI. The Illinois Secretary of State, Department on Aging and State Board of Eduction will be contacted as well to identify target datasets for acquisition, as well as, any pre-existing data linkage initiatives that may be occurring to determine whether these initiatives can be built upon.

Q3Answer: The continued development of an organized methodology for gathering and consolidating current, accurate population estimates in a timely manner is critical to ensure the State is able to meet the needs of its population for such essential services as Medicare, affordable housing, homeland security, among many others. The capacity to respond quickly and accurately will address and minimize the financial costs of under-counting when future opportunities arise.

DHS entered 2 emergency and 1 emergency extension contracts for the same services from NORC, albeit on a smaller scale. The engagements with NORC for the 2020 Census appeal required identification of data available at the State for very small and specific segments of the population, including those housed in congregate settings. Upon identification of relevant data, communications and authorizations were required to obtain it. NORC had to clean and convert the data into a format appropriate for manipulation. During the course of the emergency contracts, NORC has performed the foundational groundwork required to immediately begin population estimates on a larger scale. The plan and established processes have been successful and can be applied immediately to derive and merge as yet untapped sources of information at the State.

Given the amount of work NORC has successfully completed over the last several years, NORC is the most economically feasible vendor based on the rationale above. Another vendor would need to duplicate NORC's existing accomplishments thus resulting in delayed implementation and additional cost to Illinois taxpayers.

Q4Answer: Illinois required expert assistance in the field of population census in August 2023, for the purpose of identifying information sources and correcting the count for Group Quarters in the 2020 Census. A correct count ensures adequate allocation of such essential services as Medicare, Medicaid and affordable housing. The State had the opportunity to make corrections to its 2020 Census submissions due to the great likelihood of an undercount. In selecting a consultant for the work, several qualities were assessed and NORC at the University of Chicago was identified as having the potential to provide the greatest value to the State.

Throughout the next 9 months, additional opportunities arose to correct different population counts reported in 2020. NORC continued to explore State data sources as it responded to each additional corrective opportunity and ultimately created the basic framework which could be instituted for all population estimates, state-wide. Based on their experience and expertise, their plan as itemized in Question 2 will enable efficient delivery of the most accurate results to future data collection and prepare for the 2030 Census.

With their plan already in place, a new vendor would need at least six months to repeat the work already performed by NORC, making NORC the economically feasible option.