Considerations for Future DoD SATCOM 20100423.pdf

C id ti f F tC id ti f F tConsiderations for Future DoD SATCOM

Considerations for Future DoD SATCOMDoD SATCOMDoD SATCOM

Colonel Patrick RayermannColonel Patrick Rayermann National Security Space Office

27 April 2010 pat.rayermann@osd.mil

National Security Space Planning ProcessNational Security Space Planning Process

DoD IC Civ Com’l Allied

Architectures

National and Departmental

Science &

NSS Strategy Determines direction for space to support DoD / IC Strategies

E t i

X

Departmental Policy/Guidance

Concepts TechnologyIntegrated NSS

Operating Concept Enterprise

Level National Security Space Plan

NSS Plan Translates strategy into desired capabilities and

Architectures

MFP

Analysis NSS Acquisition

Funds and acquires programs to deliver space capabilities

H um an C ap ita l R es ou rc e

St ra te gy

Pr ot ec tio n St ra te gy

C om m er ci al

SA

TC

O M

S tr at eg y

S& T

St ra te gy

In te rn at io na l C oo pe ra tio n

National Security Space Strategy desired capabilities and end states by prioritizing and allocating resources

IAW DoDD 5101.2

NSS Program Assessment

Measure against policy, guidance, and approved architectures space capabilities

NSS

Capabilities and Effects

DoD and IC Strategic Guidance National Security Policies and Strategy

Wargames

Delivering NSS Capability to Create Effects

SATCOM together with the Aerial Layer:

Connecting the Warfighter and Accessing the GIG

Deployed, Dispersed Tactical

Core GIG Enclaves

Space LayerSpace Layer

Aerial LayerAerial LayerAerial LayerAerial Layer

Additional Enduring Users

Deployed, Dispersed Tactical

Enclaves

Example Communications Paths

Deployed, Dispersed T ti l

Core GIG Tactical EnclavesSpace LayerSpace Layer

Aerial LayerAerial LayerAerial LayerAerial Layer

Deployed, Dispersed Tactical

Enclaves Connecting warfighter

LEGEND

enclaves

Connecting warfighters to the GIG

Examples of the Two used Together

Deployed, Dispersed T ti l

Core GIG Tactical EnclavesSpace LayerSpace Layer

Aerial LayerAerial LayerAerial LayerAerial Layer

Deployed, Dispersed Tactical

Enclaves

LEGEND

Connections thru both Layers

LEGEND

Block Approach to Technology IntroductionBlock Approach to Technology Introduction

Block 4Block 1System Production

Block 3Block 2

Production run of each Block timed to capability improvements, regardless of number of satellites produced

Systems & Manufacturing

Production

Block 3Block 2 Block 5Block 4Block 1

Bl k 6

Development

Bl k 3

Block 3

Bl k 2

Block 2

Technology Bl k 5Bl k 4

Block 4Block 1

Block 6Block 3Block 2 gy

Development Block 5Block 4

Science & Block 5Block 4 Block 6Technology

Research

• Technology “on ramps” via introduction by Block

Block 3

• Technology “off ramps” via reverting to capabilities (not necessarily design) of previous Block

Model is evolution of GPS, especially GPS II series of spacecraft

Variety of Ways to Deliver CapabilitiesVariety of Ways to Deliver Capabilities Consistent with a TimeConsistent with a Time--phased, Block Acquisition Approachphased, Block Acquisition Approach

H d

MediumSmall

JCTD

Hosted Hosted

Hosted Large/

“Exquisite” Sat

Hosted

Medium SatSat

Sat

Improved p o ed Ground

Segment

• Waveforms

• Modems

Some Thoughts on Evolving DoD’s SATCOM Capabilities

UHF/Narrowband Unprotected;

possibly limited Jamming mitigation

• Approaches exist to assure delivery in jamming environmentUHF/Narrowband

Commercial MSS/Narrowband

FSS/Wideband possibly limited Jamming mitigation

• L, S, C, Ku, Ka-band

• Intrinsic elements of DoD

SATCOM capabilities

– Enhance robustness

– Meet affordability constraint

Commercial MSS/Narrowband

FSS/WidebandFSS/Wideband

Wideband • X-band and Ka-bandWideband

Unprotected;

possibly Protected via hosting y

• Opportunity for military-focused commercial SATCOM

• Capacity growth as commercial innovation permits

FSS/Wideband

Wideband

EHF it i d t t

• Provide greater assurance than commercial

• Grow capacity by prudent leveraging of commercial innovation

Unprotected & some Protected

Wideband

Protected • EHF capacity sized to meet communications needs of strategic forces & National leadership entirely Protected Survivable

Expansion of Protected SATCOM Protected SATCOM provides:

• Possible hosting of payloads

– On other US Government satellites

– On commercial/friendly foreign satellites

• Possible mid-size “free flyer” satellites

• Revised Tactics-Techniques-Procedures

• Assured connectivity

• Anti-Jam (AJ)

• Low Probability Detection (LPD)

• Low Probability Intercept (LPI)

• Low Probability Exploitation (LPE)

Enduring ConsiderationsEnduring Considerations

• Affordability of the systems to be built

• Predictability of delivery of capabilityy y p y

• Connect authorized users, from anywhere, on demand

• Provide for routine inclusion of commercial, allied and coalition capabilities

• Provide for interoperability among programmatically independent systems• Provide for interoperability among programmatically independent systems

• Strive to enable a net-centric environment

• Support Mission Assurance by the continuous availability of i ti t th W fi htcommunications to the Warfighter

• Manage the space layer to provide flexibility, capability, and efficiency

• Provide transparency consistent with authorization and need to know

• Incorporate terminal devices that provide [deliver] a user the usability

(functions, features, simplicity) the user will expect

• Industrial Base impact of various programmatic options and implementation approaches

Uncertain Demand for SATCOM – and How We Forecast Meeting It s ui re m en ts

45 Global Projection Extrapolated from Restrained Entries in 2005 DISA Loading Study: ~ 35 47 Gbps ht er

R eq u (G bp s)

Projected Warfighter

Entries in 2005 DISA Loading Study: ~ 35- 47 Gbps

10.2 Gbps

W ar fi gh

Warfighter

SATCOM

Demand

7.6 Gbps

5.9 Gbps

p

5 Theater Projection (2005 DISA Loading Study) : ~ 7 – 9.4 Gbps

AEHF 5 & 6

20162000 2004 2008 2012 2020 2024 2028 Historically-based Projection of SATCOM Needs for 100K Force Historically-based Projection of SATCOM Needs for 25K Force

Practical Reality – Stable Peacetime vs.

Uncertain Wartime Demand s ui re m en ts

45 Global Projection Extrapolated from Restrained Entries in 2005 DISA Loading Study: ~ 35 47 Gbps ht er

R eq u (G bp s)

Projected Warfighter

Entries in 2005 DISA Loading Study: ~ 35- 47 Gbps

10.2 Gbps

W ar fi gh

Warfighter

SATCOM

Demand

7.6 Gbps

5.9 Gbps

p

Uncertain Wartime DemandUncertain Wartime DemandUncertain Wartime DemandUncertain Wartime Demand

5 Theater Projection (2005 DISA Loading Study) : ~ 7 – 9.4 Gbps

AEHF 5 & 6

Stable (some slow increase) Peacetime DemandStable (some slow increase) Peacetime DemandStable (some slow increase) Peacetime DemandStable (some slow increase) Peacetime Demand

20162000 2004 2008 2012 2020 2024 2028 Historically-based Projection of SATCOM Needs for 100K Force Historically-based Projection of SATCOM Needs for 25K Force

Result – Net Demand which “Oscillates” Unpredictably over Time s

DoD’s Challenge: Provisioning an Affordable, Mission-assured, Flexible ui re m en ts

45 Global Projection Extrapolated from Restrained Entries in 2005 DISA Loading Study: ~ 35 47 Gbps

DoD s Challenge: Provisioning an Affordable, Mission assured, Flexible Infrastructure that adjusts as demand varies.

ht er

R eq u (G bp s)

Projected Warfighter

Entries in 2005 DISA Loading Study: ~ 35- 47 Gbps

10.2 Gbps

W ar fi gh

Warfighter

SATCOM

Demand

7.6 Gbps

5.9 Gbps

p

5 Theater Projection (2005 DISA Loading Study) : ~ 7 – 9.4 Gbps

AEHF 5 & 6

20162000 2004 2008 2012 2020 2024 2028 Demand oscillates unpredictably from peacetime “lows” to “highs” defined by size of Joint Task Force(s) deployed, mission(s) assigned and number of JTFs concurrently conducting operations.

Demand oscillates unpredictably from peacetime “lows” to “highs” defined by size of Joint Task Force(s) deployed, mission(s) assigned and number of JTFs concurrently conducting operations.

Demand to Communicate Unlikely to DiminishDemand to Communicate Unlikely to Diminish

• Tomorrow’s sailor, airman, marine and soldier are here today:

– Computer literateComputer literate

– Always connected

– Intuitively comfortable collaborating and sharing knowledge & information

This summer, soldiers from the 5th Brigade Combat Team, 1st

Armored Division will start testing hi h h d i d l d fhigh-tech devices, modeled after Apple’s popular iPhone.

“There are a lot of tactical apps that are possible . . . ”

Army Times March 15, 2010

. . . it could be added to the set [of the BCT Modernization program] scheduled for fielding in the 2013- 2014 timeframe.

March 15, 2010

Joint Space Communications Layer (JSCL) ICD:

New Perspective; New Lens

• Historically, we’ve focused on the solution (system) The JSCL provides a new view and a new lens: identify solutions appropriate h b l i d h i l d dto the battlespace environment and the operational demand

Benign Environment

Contested Environment

Nuclear Environment

UHF/Narrowband Unprotected;

li it d

UHF/Narrowband

Solutions (S )

Commercial MSS/Narrowband

FSS/Wideband possibly limited Jamming mitigation

Unprotected;

Commercial MSS/Narrowband

FSS/Wideband

(Systems)

Wideband Unprotected &

P t t d

Wideband

Unprotected;

possibly Protected via hosting

Protected some Protected entirely Protected Survivable

DoD SATCOM: Future RealitiesDoD SATCOM: Future Realities

• FSS and MSS commercial SATCOM will continue to make significant contributions to deployed US military Joint Task Forces (JTFs) Coalition SATCOM capabilities will increasingly be important contributors to the overall• Coalition SATCOM capabilities will increasingly be important contributors to the overall SATCOM capabilities used by US forces and their coalition partners

• Aerial layer communications capabilities will contribute to meeting the warfighter’s need for “beyond-line-of-sight” (BLOS) connectivity, especially within a theater

• Even with complete WGS and MOUS constellations and wide fielding of compatible terminals, the aggregate demand of a deployed JTF for SATCOM will often use & and benefit from the integration of coalition, commercial and US military systems

• The range of commercial capabilities which DoD will try to lease to support a deployed g p y pp p y JTF can be estimated; however

– Time periods of high demand (deployment) cannot

– Mission and size of JTFs cannot

Geographic areas to which DoD will deploy JTFs cannot– Geographic areas to which DoD will deploy JTFs cannot

• DoD is considering a variety of options for the future roles & contributions of commercial and coalition SATCOM systems as access points to the GIG

– Intent is to provide a clear articulation of the DoD view for the future mix of SATCOM capabilities:

p p US military, commercial and coalition

– Intent is to recognize appropriate roles & contributions for coalition & commercial capabilities

Concluding Thoughts Concluding Thoughts

• Adopting a “fresh” perspective permits us to free ourselves from limitations— intentional and unintentional—attendant to the traditional view from our past

• The current set of circumstances presents us with an unusual and valuable opportunity to assess and frame how we wish to affordably and flexibly build the set of communications access points for deployed warfighters to the GIG, especially the services and knowledge the GIG provides

• A set of communications capabilities which are scalable, adaptive and mutually supporting help to deliver network capabilities which are robust and reliable

• Ideas, innovations and collaboration are welcome from

– The COCOMs

– The Services

– Industry

O Alli

– Our Allies