SATPC0037701 TAB 04 4 SOW.pdf

STATEMENT OF WORK

Launch Vehicle Probabilistic Reliability Risk Analysis Services Purpose

The purpose of this effort is to perform launch vehicle probabilistic reliability risk analysis to verify compliance with NASA's mission requirements, including nuclear mission launch vehicle risk analysis, earth orbit failure probabilities, and other relevant studies as required by the Government.

Scope

The contractor shall perform Bayesian statistical and probabilistic reliability analysis for the launch vehicles specified in this statement of work utilizing only launch vehicle design reliability models and mission trajectory timelines. The probabilistic risk analysis shall be developed to include basic initiating events, accident initial conditions, and partition mission time phases necessary to develop accident outcome conditions. The contractor shall compile and utilize all available worldwide launch systems flight data, test data, and failure history information of parts, sub-systems, and integrated systems to develop failure probabilities and failure modes in support of NASA's risk assessments. The contractor shall perform Bayesian updates for the compiled database and appropriate similarity mapping of components, sub-systems, and integrated systems for NASA's required launch vehicles and missions.

This effort is in support of the nuclear launch approval processes. In order to meet requirements for the Presidential Memorandum on Launch of Spacecraft Containing Space Nuclear Systems (NSPM-20), NASA produces a data book. The data book includes chapters from the launch vehicle provider, other Government contractors, and the awardee of this contract. Specifically, the awardee of this contract shall be required to produce a Chapter 8, Accident Probabilities.

Task Definitions

Tasks below are related to the multi-mission data book. This multi-mission data book is a living document that is used as a starting point for the NSPM-20 process. The contractor shall develop accident scenarios, event sequence diagrams (ESDs)/event fault trees (FTs) and perform quantification of failure probabilities for all prelaunch and post-liftoff Accident Initial Conditions (AICs) and Accident Outcome Conditions (AOCs) required to support development and release of a Multi-Mission Data Book for Blue Origin’s New Glenn launch vehicle. Task 3, Option A and Task 4, Option B are potential task order awards for a future TBD date.

Task 1 Preliminary Logic Model Development (Baseline):

Develop the logic structures for a new probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model for the aforementioned launch vehicle. The state of such model should be mature enough to proceed into Task 2 upon completion. This task is broken out into two sub-tasks:

Sub-task 1a Development of the Accident Model Pinch Points:

First, decompose the launch vehicle into major sub-systems and define the Basic Initiating Events (BIEs). Then, identify the launch vehicle accident sequence initiating points, i.e., the AICs, and organize them in a Master Logic Diagram (MLD). Finally, classify the launch vehicle threats into a MLD of the AOCs.

Sub-task 1b Development of the Accident Sequence Models:

Link the pinch points developed in Sub-task 1a with appropriate logic models. For BIE-to-AIC, construct fault trees and/or logic mappings. Whereas, for AIC-to-AOC, develop ESDs and/or event trees.

Task 2 Preliminary Model Quantification (Baseline):

Quantify the BIEs developed under Task 1 with similarity data processed from comparable sub-systems in other launch vehicles. Propagate the quantification into the AICs and perform Bayesian updating with relevant flight history. Finally, propagate the AIC estimates through the ESDs to quantify the AOCs.

Task 3 Logic Model Refinement (Option A):

Refine the logic models developed under Task 1 with specific information for the New Glenn launch vehicle. These specific data could include up-to-date vehicle configuration or New Glenn-specific Flight Termination System design.

Task 4 Final Model Quantification (Option B):

Quantify the updated logic models from Task 3 with up-to-date vehicle reliability information provided by Blue Origin.

Deliverables and Schedule

The Government shall supply launch vehicle design reliability models (or best available information) and mission trajectories/timelines prior to contract authority to proceed (ATP).

For each task, the contractor shall submit a draft report at ATP + X weeks. In particular, the deliverables for Task 1 and Task 3 will be reports in chart format, whereas the deliverables for Task 2 and Task 4 will be full-text report documents. The Government shall supply review comments on the draft report within 30 days of receipt of the draft report. The contractor shall incorporate review comments from the Government team and incorporate them into the final report.

For each final report deliverable, all analytical inputs and tools, including, but not limited to, failure databases, engineering judgment, information obtained from expert elicitations, computer models, spreadsheets, Event Sequence Diagrams, Fault-Trees, Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) models, supporting memoranda, and references shall be included in the delivery package and referenced in the appropriate final report. The contractor's final report shall include narrative descriptions of all steps taken to complete the tasks above, all analytical inputs, models, spreadsheets, and data required for the Government to reproduce the results in the final report, and shall be submitted with the final report deliverable. The Government will have the authority to use and disseminate all data provided to reproduce the results, if desired.

NASA Technical Contacts

David Piryk David.A.Piryk@nasa.gov 321-861-3508

Jacob Roth Jacob.Roth@nasa.gov 321-867-1979