RFI Actuarial Catastrophic Modeling Branch 11.26.2024.docx

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Actuarial & Catastrophic Modeling Branch Request for Information (RFI) November 26, 2024

NOTE: This notice is being issued for market research purposes only. The information obtained as a result of this notice will be used to assist the Government in its acquisition strategy.

REQUEST FOR INFORMATION (RFI) ONLY to identify sources that can provide support of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), Actuarial & Catastrophic Modeling Branch. FEMA requires actuarial consulting services to provide advice and guidance on actuarial activities for the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), and to provide staff augmentation services to the NFIP actuaries as they grow their internal capabilities.

GENERAL INFORMATION: This RFI is issued solely for information gathering purposes to identify sources that can provide support for the Actuarial & Catastrophic Modeling Branch. In accordance with FAR 15.201(e), RFIs may be used when the Government wants to obtain price, delivery, other market information, and capabilities for planning purposes. Responses to these RFIs are not offers and cannot be accepted by the Government to form a binding contract. This RFI shall not be construed as a commitment by the Government for any purpose, nor does it restrict the Government to an ultimate acquisition approach. Respondents are solely responsible for all expenses associated with their RFI response. Respondents will not receive additional information in response to their submittal to the RFI and will not be notified of the resulting market research.

PROPRIETARY INFORMATION AND DISCLAIMERS: Respondents shall identify any proprietary, confidential, privileged commercial or financial information in its RFI response and mark accordingly to ensure appropriate handling and disposition by the Government. Information submitted in response to this RFI will be used at the discretion of the Government. Further, the information submitted will remain confidential so as permitted by law, including the Freedom of Information and Privacy Acts. All submissions become Government property and will not be returned.

Although it is not necessary to address in their response, respondents shall be aware of any potential, actual, or perceived organizational conflicts of interests. Any real or potential conflicts must be sufficiently mitigated prior to a contract award. For further guidance, refer to the Federal Acquisition Regulation, Part 9.5.

NAICS CODE: 524298

PRODUCT SERVICE CODE (PSC): R499/Other Professional Services

ANTICIPATED PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE START DATE: 09/29/2025.

RFI RESPONSE SUBMITTAL INSTRUCTIONS:

Interested contractors shall submit their RFI responses electronically to Valerie Almodovar, Contracting Officer, at valerie.almodovar2@fema.dhs.gov and Bryan Falcone, Contracting Officer, at bryan.falcone@fema.dhs.gov no later than 3:00PM Eastern Standard Time (EST), December 13, 2024. Questions regarding this RFI are due no later than December 06, 2024.

“RFI Response for (Actuarial & Catastrophic Modeling Branch and Actuarial Consulting Services)” shall be in the subject line of your e-mail. All responses shall be unclassified, with proprietary information clearly marked. The document format shall be either Microsoft Word (.doc or .docx), or Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) formats. Pages shall be 8.5 by 11 inch and shall use a type of pitch that is no smaller than a standard 11-point font type, with the exception of charts, graphs, or tables, which shall use a pitch not smaller than 10-point font. Responses shall not exceed (page limit) pages in length including images, data displays, charts, graphs, and tables. Page limitation does not include: 1 cover page. Do not include promotional materials.

RFI Responses shall include the following information in the order below:

6. GSA Schedule Number (if applicable), Contract Number, and Period of Performance and/or DHS Strategic Sourcing Vehicle Category Name and Contract Number, if applicable.

C. Contractor RFI Responses to questions (No more than nine pages in length)

The responses received will assist FEMA with identifying the number and nature of the entities that consider themselves potential technical solution providers. Each respondent, by submitting a response, agrees that any cost incurred in response to this RFI, or in support of activities associated with this RFI, shall be the sole responsibility of the respondent. FEMA shall incur no obligations or liabilities whatsoever, to anyone, for any costs or expenses incurred by the respondent in responding to this RFI.

REQUEST FOR INFORMATION (RFI) QUESTIONS

1. Capabilities Statement:

Provide a capabilities statement that demonstrates your ability to support the modernization of the program described in the FEMA’s NFIP Risk Rating Methodology and Data Sources (dated January 18, 2022). Specifically, highlight your experience with actuarial services and pricing natural catastrophe risk, catastrophe modeling, and data validation.

2. Gaps in Current Methodology:

Based on your expertise and review of FEMA’s NFIP Risk Rating Methodology and Data Sources (dated January 18, 2022), are there any gaps, limitations, or areas for improvement in the current methodology? If so, please describe gaps and limitations identified with suggestions for improvement/enhancement.

3. Scope and Level of Effort:

Based on your experience, what would be the appropriate scope or level of effort for a project of this nature, focusing on risk rating methodology and data integration? Additionally, what do you identify as the primary cost drivers in such projects (e.g., data acquisition, model development, computing resources)?

4. Advancements in Support Services:

Over the past five years, what advancements or innovations have been made in geospatial data integration, catastrophe modeling, or flood risk assessment that FEMA should consider for this project? Please describe any emerging technologies or practices that could enhance FEMA’s ability to understand and price flood risk.

5. Geospatial Data Handling and Integration:

How does your organization acquire, process, and validate geospatial data (e.g., DEMs, flood hazard layers, and hydrography datasets)? What technologies, tools, and methodologies do you use to ensure data accuracy and completeness?

Can you describe your process for integrating geospatial data with flood risk models? How do you handle variations in data quality across different geographic regions?

What innovations in GIS data processing or flood risk modeling have you implemented that could improve the accuracy of risk assessments?

6. Catastrophe Model Usage:

Describe your experience with catastrophe models (e.g., AIR, KatRisk, CoreLogic) for flood risk assessment. What are the strengths and limitations of each model, and how do you adjust for inconsistencies or gaps in the models?

What methods do you use to calibrate model outputs to ensure they align with real world data and historical flood risk events? How do you address extreme outliers or anomalies in the model data?

How do you incorporate nonmodeled risks (e.g., coastal erosion, tsunami risks in specific areas) into the catastrophe modeling process?

7. Data Quality and Variable Imputation:

What methodologies do you use for handling incomplete or missing property data (e.g., firstfloor height, replacement cost values) in large datasets? How do you ensure the imputed data accurately reflects real world conditions?

How do you validate the imputation process to ensure the data remains robust and free of bias? Can you provide examples of successful data imputation in similar projects?

8. Risk Rating Factor Development:

How do you develop and validate geographic and property specific rating factors in flood risk models? What methods do you use to ensure the factors reflect local risk variations (e.g., elevation, distance to water bodies, levee status)?

What experience do you have in calculating and applying concentration risk loads for high density policy areas? How do you account for geographic variability and ensure equitable pricing across regions?

9. Innovative Methodologies:

What emerging technologies, methodologies, or industry best practices do you recommend for improving FEMA’s Risk Rating 2.0 methodology? How can these innovations improve flood risk assessments and ensure more accurate premium calculations?

How do you incorporate machine learning, artificial intelligence, or other advanced data science techniques to improve the accuracy of risk modeling, especially in complex geographic areas?

10. Optimization and Automation:

What opportunities exist to automate the premium calculation process to ensure consistency and reduce manual errors?

11. Quality Assurance and Validation:

How do you measure the effectiveness and accuracy of your methodology? Can you provide examples of how your QA process improved the accuracy of a previous flood risk project?

12. Contributions to the Performance Work Statement (PWS):

What specific elements would you recommend including in the PWS to ensure that the work required is clear and measurable? How should we structure deliverables to ensure the success of the project?

How can FEMA better define its objectives to allow for more precise proposals from vendors? What additional clarity or information would help you deliver an optimized solution?

13. Risk Management in Methodology Implementation:

What potential risks do you foresee in implementing NFIP pricing methodology, and how would you mitigate those risks? How do you manage unforeseen technical challenges or data discrepancies during project execution?

Can you outline any contingencies or fallback strategies that ensure smooth project continuity in the event of disruptions (e.g., data gaps, model failures)?

Referenced Documents:

https://www.fema.gov/sites/default/files/documents/FEMA_Risk-Rating-2.0_Methodology-and-Data-Appendix__01-22.pdf