JA SPJA25-83_Redacted.pdf

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Probability and Statistical Services for the Analysis of Missile Systems for Strategic Systems Programs (SSP)
Solicitation number
N00030-26-C-2009_Post_Award
Issued by

About this file

This Justification and Approval (J&A) document is for a non-competitive contract award to Mathematical Analysis Research Corporation (MARC) by the Department of the Navy's Strategic Systems Programs (SSP). The $12 million contract will cover engineering and technical services for the Fleet Ballistic Missile (FBM) Program, including six key service areas: Reliability Assessments and Reports, D5LE Support, D5 Age Management Missile System Technical Services, Data System Evaluations, Test Program Evaluation, and Knowledge Continuity.

The contract is anticipated to run from October 1, 2025 to September 30, 2030, with a one-year base period and four one-year option periods. The justification for sole-source selection is MARC's unique expertise gained over 50 years of work on FBM programs, including detailed knowledge of missile system methodologies, test programs, and reliability assessment techniques. The Navy determined that competition would introduce unacceptable risks and significant costs to the program, and no other contractor has the requisite experience and capabilities to perform these specialized technical services.

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DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY

DIRECTOR, STRATEGIC SYSTEMS PROGRAMS

1250 10TH STREET SE SUITE 3600

WASHINGTON NAVY YARD DC 20374-5127

J&A No SPJA25-83 Code: SPN208

JUSTIFICATION AND APPROVAL

FOR USE OF OTHER THAN FULL AND OPEN COMPETITION

1. Identification of the Agency and Contracting Activity. Depar Strategic Systems Programs (SSP) located at the Washington Navy Yard, 1250 10th Street SE, Washington, D.C. 20374.

2. Description of the Action Being Approved. This Justification and Approval (J&A) authorizes and approves the use of other than full and open competition to award a Firm Fixed Price (FFP) contract to Mathematical Analysis Research Corporation (MARC) for engineering and technical services in support of the Fleet Ballistic Missile (FBM) Program.

3. Description of Supplies / Services and Estimated Value. This procurement is a follow-on contract for services that MARC currently performs under contract N0003021C2009. The contemplated contract will provide for the following engineering and technical services:

(1) Reliability Assessments and Reports, which requires the Contractor to review and evaluate Missile System, Launcher System, and Reentry System reliability and product assurance documentation, determine the applicability of methodologies for reliability apportionment, assessment, and forecasting, monitor current assessment techniques to quantify existing or potential errors, identify more appropriate techniques for application, and deliver Statistical Models and Analysis and Evaluation Reports

(2) D5LE Support, which requires the Contractor to evaluate the reliability predictions and assessments for the D5LE electronic packages including the flight control package, interlocks, command sequencer, and inverter, and deliver Special Reports and Assessments and Reliability Assessment Reports

(3) D5 Age Management Missile System Technical Services, which requires the contractor to provide analysis in identifying potential material degradation or material of concern through the evaluation of age management test programs, including Hardware Assessment Testing, and evaluate the age management program for adequacy in generating data appropriate for use in reliability and trend assessment, and determine the correlation of possible test failures to ensure proper reliability inputs and reporting

(4) Data System Evaluations, which requires the Contractor to assess the adequacy of present and future planned data systems supporting Missile System, Launcher System, and Reentry System reliability evaluation, participate in the planning for coherent use of data for problem detection, assessment, forecasting, and corrective actions, and evaluate data requirements related to reliability assessment programs, recommend actions to assure that the quality and type of data necessary for evaluations is available in a timely, accurate, and usable format, and deliver Statistical Models and Analysis and Evaluation Reports.

(5) Test Program Evaluation, which requires the Contractor to evaluate proposed ground and flight test programs for adequacy in generating data appropriate for use in reliability and trend assessment, determine the correlation of possible test failures to ensure proper reliability inputs and reporting, evaluate inferences concerning hardware reliability, perform assessments of specific reliability problems arising from development and production, and deliver Reliability Assessment Reports

(6) Knowledge Continuity, which requires the Contractor to deliver knowledge continuity presentations that create an opportunity for the workforce to gain vital historical knowledge in areas of probability, reliability, statistics, and data analysis, and provide informational and historical overviews on the different methodologies utilized for analysis of the Missile System, Launcher System, and Reentry System

The contemplated contract is expected to include a one-year base period (FY26) and four one-year option periods. Performance is anticipated to begin on 1 October 2025 and end on 30 September 2030.

The estimated value of the contract is $12 million, inclusive of all option line items, as detailed needs have been verified by the certifying technical and requirements personnel. The estimated cost by appropriation is provided in the table that follows.

Estimated Appropriation and Dollar Values

Appropriation FY26-FY30 Total ($M)

O&MN $5

WPN $6

RDT&E $1

Total $12

Note: The contract will include a special contract term, which applies only to Level-of- Effort (LOE) line items, intended to provide a vehicle for the Government to acquire additional man-hours for work within the scope of the contract. This optional term allows an increase not to exceed 30 percent of the total value associated with each LOE contract line item to accommodate for emergent in-scope requirements. This increase of not to exceed 30 percent for LOE line items is not included in the total value in the above table.

4. Statutory Ordering Authority and Limited Source Justification. 10 U.S.C. 3204 (a)(1), Only one responsible source and no other supplies or services will satisfy agency requirements, as implemented by FAR 6.302-1.

5. Rationale Justifying Use of Cited Statutory Authority. Pursuant to 10 U.S.C. § 3204(b) (B) (ii), as implemented by FAR 6.302-1(a) (2) (iii) (B) services may be deemed to be available only from the original source in the case of follow-on contracts for the continued provision of highly specialized services when it is likely that award to any other source would result in (1) substantial duplication of cost to the Government that is not excepted to be recovered through contract is a direct follow-on to the FY21 non- competitive effort awarded to MARC under SSP

Contract N0003021C2009. The incumbent contractor, MARC, is the only contractor that possesses the knowledge and expertise to perform the covered by this J&A. To perform the required scope, a contractor must possess the following:

(1) Detailed knowledge of methodologies used by SSP for evaluation reliability of the D5 and D5LE Missile systems, Launcher System, and Reentry System

(2) The ability to develop new models and methodologies for the currently fielded D5 and D5LE Missile systems, Launcher System, and Reentry System and upcoming D5LE2 and Reentry Systems (W93/Mk7)

(3) The ability to evaluate, assess, and correct models and methodologies used to make predictions of the D5 and D5LE Missile systems, Launcher System, and Reentry System to avoid failures and ensure reports use robust and relevant statistical methods

(4) Detailed knowledge on drivers of missile reliability, like manufacturing, design, transportation, operations, and environmental conditions as they pertain to the D5, D5LE, and D5LE2 Missile systems, Launcher System, and Reentry System

(5) Detailed knowledge of the flight test and group test programs at SSP that are used to inform the development of the Missile Reliability Report

(6) The ability to teach the methods and provide historical and technical context to the workforce

MARC, possessing all the above capabilities, which it has acquired through more than 50 years of work on the FBM program, is the only source that can develop and deliver the requisite engineering systems required for SSP. Their expertise and models have been applied to the Poseidon, and Trident I and II FBM systems, the submarines launchers, and various reentry systems. They have also reviewed every Missile Reliability Report. MARC currently serves as a trusted advisor to SSP, often collaborating closely with FBM contractor, Lockheed Martin Space (LMS), and its subcontractors, as well as other contractors like Northrop Grumman. The cost and delay associated with obtaining competition through qualification of an alternate source far outweigh any price, quality, or schedule benefits that can be reasonably anticipated from competition.

Based on the expertise of the Technical Team, the Contracting Officer Representative, and the Program Manager's, the selection of another contractor would require up to at least five (5) years of extensive orientation and training to bring the contractor up to the MARC's level of skill in theory and application of statistics and numerical analysis, knowledge of the FBM program, and understanding of the technical limitations and operational environment of the weapon system.

The schedule impact, recognized through personal knowledge of requirement technical complexity, clearly demonstrates that only MARC has the capabilities and knowledge to successfully perform the requirements set forth in the statement of work.

The unique work being performed by MARC is critical to the United States national security.

Currently, it is not reasonable to use another contractor as the unreasonable delay and duplication of cost to the D5LE, D5LE2, Launcher System, and Reentry System would not be in

6. Description of Efforts Made to Solicit Offers from as Many Offerors as Practicable. Market research was conducted in accordance with Federal Acquisition Regulation Part 10. Market research techniques included applying personal knowledge in procuring services of this type, contacting knowledgeable individuals in Government and industry regarding market capabilities to meet requirements, reviewing the results of recent market research undertaken to meet similar requirements, and querying the government-wide database of contracts at various Government and commercial websites. In addition, public solicitation resulted in responses for contractors that cannot m

SSP synopsized the proposed contract on the System for Award Management (SAM) website (www.SAM.gov) 31 January 2025 through (Please insert date it was taken down), and only one other potential expressed an interest in this requirement. Only MARC and one other offeror expressed an interest in this requirement, but the other offeror did not have the required knowledge, expertise, or capabilities to fulfill the requirement. Reasons for this determination are further detailed in the Market Research report. Additionally, the conclusion of the Market Research reached was that:

1) Potential offers did not have the requisite experience and necessary capabilities to adequately address the specific and unique FBM technical services without introducing both unacceptable risk to FBM requirements and costs to the program.

2) Competition and potential transition of remaining engineering services during the proposed contract period of performance would introduce significant impacts to D5LE, D5LE2, Launcher System, and Reentry System reliability reporting and unacceptable risk to the program.

7.Determination of Fair and Reasonable Cost. SSP proposes to execute a (Contract type) contract based on a technical evaluation of the proposal, a detailed cost analysis utilizing audit and field recommendations, and previous cost history and actuals, where appropriate. Based upon this information the Contracting Officer has determined that the anticipated cost to the Government of the supplies/services covered by this J&A will be fair and reasonable.

8. Actions to Remove Barriers to Future Competition. For the reasons set forth in Paragraph 5, SSP has no plan at this time to compete future contracts for the types of supplies/services covered by this J&A. SSP will continue to monitor the market to identify potential sources of these services for future requirements, while analyzing any potential impact to cost, schedule, and program risk. If another potential source emerges, SSP will assess whether competition for future requirements is feasible.

As this is a follow-on for supplies and services previously awarded on a non-competitive basis, in accordance with DFARS PGI 206.304(a)(S-70)(i), the prior J&A was provided to the approval authority for review. Approval of this J&A signifies the approval authority has made the determination required by DFARS PGI 206.304(a)(S-70)(ii).

COMPETITION ADVOCATE OF THE CONTRACTING ACTIVITY

Upon the basis of the above justification, I hereby approve, as Competition Advocate of the Contracting Activity of Strategic Systems Programs, the solicitation of the proposed procurement described herein using other than full and open competition, pursuant to the authority of 10 U.S.C.

3204 (a)(1), Only One Responsible Source.

APPROVED:

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