IARPA-RFI-24-02 FMI_RFI_20240603 6 6 24 C.pdf

Request for Information – Methodologies to Assess Foreign Malign Influence

RFI Number: IARPA-RFI-24-02 Agency: Office of the Director of National Intelligence Office: Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity – Office of Analysis

IARPA-RFI-24-02

Request for Information (RFI): Methodologies to Assess Foreign Malign Influence

IARPA is seeking information on methodologies to assess Foreign Malign Influence (FMI). FMI includes “subversive, undeclared (including covert and clandestine), coercive or criminal activities by foreign governments, non-state actors, or their proxies to affect another nation’s popular or political attitudes, perceptions, or behaviors to advance their interests. This can include efforts to sow division, undermine democratic processes and institutions, or steer policy and regulatory decisions in favor of the foreign actor’s strategic objectives” (ICA 2022-27259-A,

p. iii).1 Additionally, IARPA is interested in better understanding potential civil liberties and privacy considerations of future FMI research to ensure accountability and transparency.

This RFI is issued for planning purposes only, and it does not constitute a formal solicitation for proposals or suggest the procurement of any material, data sets, etc. The following sections of this announcement contain details on the specific areas of interest, along with instructions for the submission of responses.

Background and Scope:

For the purposes of this RFI, IARPA is interested in characterization of research on methodologies to assess FMI activities and risks. For the purposes of this RFI, IARPA is not interested in research on FMI detection, attribution, or mitigation.

Respondents are encouraged to describe research approaches that involve foreign malign influence activities against foreign (non-U.S.) populations. IARPA does not intend to apply assessment methodologies to the U.S. population. In response to the questions below, please indicate what the FMI objective is, and the extent to which methods for assessing FMI activities and risks are applicable to other FMI objectives or target populations. Respondents are encouraged to specify the FMI activities (what, how, where, and against whom) for which assessment methodologies are applicable.

This RFI aims to elicit approaches for assessing FMI activities and risks, including the data requirements, contexts of use, and limitations of each. For the purposes of this RFI, “risk” is defined as “a measure of the extent to which an entity is threatened by a potential circumstance or event, and typically is a function of: (i) the adverse impact, or magnitude of harm, that would arise if the circumstance or event occurs; and (ii) the likelihood of occurrence” (NIST SP 800-37

1 See also 50 U.S. Code § 3059(f)(2).

Rev 1).2 Respondents may suggest risk definitions or risk measures appropriate to FMI if doing so would enable stronger responses to the below questions.

Responses to this RFI should answer any or all of the following questions:

1. What methods exist for measuring impact of FMI activities?

a. What influence indicators do researchers use? How is FMI “impact” or “effect” defined?

b. Over what period and at what intervals do researchers assess impacts or effects?

c. What are the applications and limitations for each method?

d. What are the data requirements for each method?

e. What innovative methods for measuring impact or effects from other domains might be used to assess FMI activities?

2. Have any methods for measuring impact been tested and evaluated? If so, how?

3. What modeling and simulation approaches exist for assessing FMI risks?

a. Have predictive models been used to forecast FMI risks? If so, how?

b. Has synthetic data been used to assess impacts of influence activities? If so, how?

c. What theories of behavioral change applicable to FMI have been tested with modeling and simulation approaches?

d. Has human subjects research been integrated into modeling and simulation approaches for assessing impacts of influence activities? If so, how?

e. Has social network analysis been used to assess FMI? If so, how?

4. What methods exist for measuring vulnerability to FMI?

a. How is “vulnerability” to FMI defined, and for which unit of analysis (e.g.

individual, group, society, etc.)?

b. What factors increase or decrease vulnerability to FMI activities? How was this established?

c. What methods for analyzing target audiences exist?

d. Have methods for analyzing target audiences been evaluated? If so, how?

5. What methods exist for measuring resilience to FMI activities?

a. How is “resilience” to FMI defined, and for which unit of analysis (e.g. individual, group, society, etc.)?

b. What factors increase or decrease resilience to FMI activities? How was this established?

6. What methods exist for assessing likelihood of occurrence of FMI activities?

7. What datasets are available for advancing research on FMI risk assessment?

a. What is the data availability and utility for further research?

b. Are there available ground-truth datasets on FMI topics? That is, are there available datasets for which verified FMI activities (and associated features) have been accurately annotated?

c. Are there existing relationships among researchers and industry partners that would provide opportunities for research use of FMI-relevant datasets?

d. What are the data needs and gaps that, if filled, would advance research on impact measurement of FMI?

2 See Aven et al. 2018 for an overview of risk definitions and analysis.

8. How are researchers addressing civil liberties and privacy considerations while advancing research on FMI assessments?

a. What approaches are researchers taking to ensure transparency and accountability in research on FMI activities?

b. Are researchers utilizing privacy-enhancing technologies to advance research on

FMI? If so, how?

Preparation Instructions to Respondents:

IARPA requests that submittals briefly and clearly describe the approach or capability, directly address any or all of the specific questions, and outline any known critical technical issues/obstacles. This announcement contains all the information required to submit a response. No additional forms, kits, or other materials are needed.

IARPA welcomes responses from all capable and qualified sources from within and outside of the U.S.

Because IARPA is interested in an integrated approach, responses from teams with complementary areas of expertise are encouraged.

Submissions from Federally Funded Research and Development Centers (FFRDCs) and

University Affiliated Research Centers (UARCs) are permitted but with an understanding that neither groups are able to propose against any future IARPA program. Instead, any submissions from these groups should consider the technical elements described above but include reflection upon how they would support program efforts as a potential test and evaluation partner enabling IARPA to validate different potential approaches to meet the research challenge.

In response to submissions to this RFI, IARPA may organize an invitation-only workshop for the purpose of reviewing and discussing relevant current and future research. Should a workshop occur, participants may be asked to make formal presentations based on their RFI submissions or associated research. Written submissions and information discussed at a workshop may assist in the formulation of future U.S. Government research.

Responses have the following formatting requirements:

1. A one-page cover sheet that identifies the title, organization(s), respondent's technical and administrative points of contact - including names, addresses, phone and fax numbers, and email addresses of all co-authors, and clearly indicating its association with RFI-24-02;

2. A substantive, focused, one-half page executive summary;

3. Answers to the above questions, including potential research approaches capable of achieving a potential program on this topic, are limited to 5 pages in minimum 12-point

Times New Roman font, appropriate for single-sided, single-spaced 8.5 by 11-inch paper, with 1-inch margins);

4. A list of citations (any significant claims or reports of success must be accompanied by citations);

5. Optionally, a single overview briefing chart graphically depicting the key ideas;

6. An appendix of critical reference papers or white papers (no more than 3) associated with answers or potential approaches.

Submission Instructions to Respondents:

Responses to this RFI are due no later than 5 p.m., Eastern Time, on 1 July, 2024. All submissions must be electronically submitted to DNI-IARPA-RFI-24-02@IARPA.GOV as a PDF document. Inquiries to this RFI must be submitted to DNI-IARPA-RFI-24-02@IARPA.GOV . Do not respond to or send questions with proprietary content. No telephone inquiries will be accepted.

Disclaimers and Important Notes:

This is an RFI issued solely for information and planning purposes and does not constitute a solicitation. Respondents are advised that IARPA is under no obligation to acknowledge receipt of the information received or provide feedback to respondents with respect to any information submitted under this RFI.

Responses to this notice are not offers and cannot be accepted by the Government to form a binding contract. Respondents are solely responsible for all expenses associated with responding to this RFI. IARPA will not provide reimbursement for costs incurred in responding to this RFI. It is the respondent's responsibility to ensure that the submitted material has been approved for public release by the information owner.

The Government does not intend to award a contract on the basis of this RFI or to otherwise pay for the information solicited, nor is the Government obligated to issue a solicitation based on responses received. Neither proprietary nor classified concepts or information should be included in the submittal. However, should a respondent wish to submit classified concepts or information, prior coordination must be made with the IARPA Chief of Security. Email the

Primary Point of Contact with a request for coordination with the IARPA Chief of Security.

Input on technical aspects of the responses may be solicited by IARPA from non-Government consultants/experts who are bound by appropriate non-disclosure requirements. Submissions may be reviewed and followed up on by an assigned technical contractor supporting the designated IARPA POC.

Several key laws, enacted over the past three decades, provide general privacy and confidentiality requirements that either directly or indirectly affect all government agencies.

These include The Privacy Act of 1974, The Computer Security Act of 1987, Health Insurance

Portability and Accountability Act of 1996 (HIPAA), US Patriot Act of 2001, and The Confidential

Information Protection and Statistical Efficiency Act of 2002. Under federal law, protected characteristics include race, color, national origin, religion, gender (including pregnancy), disability, age (if the employee is at least 40 years old), and citizenship status. Processing any of these data sets could inadvertently cause discrimination or bias, of these protected characteristics.

Contracting Office Address:

Office of the Director of National Intelligence Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity Washington, District of Columbia 20511 United States

Primary Point of Contact:

Dr. Perry Sherouse

Program Manager - Office of Analysis Research

Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity

Sources:

50 U.S. Code § 3059(f)(2).

Aven, T., Ben-Haim, Y., Andersen, H. B., Cox, T., Droguett, E. L., Greenberg, M., Guikema, S., Kröger, W., Renn, O., Thompson, K. M., & Zio, E. (2018). Society for Risk Analysis Glossary.

https://www.sra.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/SRA-Glossary-FINAL.pdf

Joint Task Force. National Institute of Standards and Technology Special Publication 800-37, Revision 2. “Risk Management Framework for Information Systems and Organizations: A

System Life Cycle Approach for Security and Privacy,” December 2018.

https://doi.org/10.6028/NIST.SP.800-37r2

National Intelligence Council. December 23, 2022. “Foreign Threats to the 2022 Elections.”

Intelligence Community Assessment 2022-27259-A.

https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/NIC-Declassified-ICA-Foreign-Threats-to-the-2022-US-Elections-Dec2023.pdf Accessed Nov 30, 2023.