2_4046-Cer-Background-E-5ed.pdf

COLLEGE OF INTERNATIONAL AND SECURITY STUDIES

Program in Advanced Security Studies (PASS)

Exercise

Cerulean Region Background

English

Edition 5 #4046-E

Cerulean Region Background

Introduction

Welcome to the fictitious region of Cerulea. Cerulea is made up of four countries called Denabia, Goria, Marislova, and Tashmara, These share some characteristics of states in the Marshall Center’s region, but are not meant to replicate any specific countries. To enhance realism, the fictitious area of Cerulea is placed in between Iran, Russia, and the Ukraine (see map).

All the countries in Cerulea were former republics of the Soviet Union and achieved their independence in 1991. In the case of Marislova and Goria secession was bloodless, but in ethnically divided Denabia, there was fierce fighting between Tashmaks and the majority Cisdenabs. Intervention by Marislovan and Russian troops ended the fighting in 1993 and an international agreement guaranteed Denabia’s sovereignty. Under a bi-lateral agreement, Marislovan troops have been stationed in Denabia since 1993 to deter possible military intervention by Tashmara in support of Tashmak separatists.

The River Dena is the key geographical and economic feature of the region. Its potential has been harnessed by a canal and irrigation systems, which have improved navigation and increased trade, agriculture and industry in the Dena basin. A regional treaty between Marislova, Goria and Denabia guarantees freedom of navigation on the River Dena and a tri-lateral council sets tariffs for the locks at Rokno and Garchuk and irrigation quotas.

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Marislova - Country Brief

General Marislova is an ancient Slavic state with a population of nearly 11 million. It has a strong Marislovan Orthodox tradition centered on its capital, Istvannograd. Marislova’s kings once ruled most of the Cerulean area and there is a strong sense of national identity. The modern Repubilc of Marislova is the most powerful state in Cerulea. It benefits from stable government, an absence of ethnic tensions and steady economic growth. The political reform process has been slow, but the expansion of the private sector and greater press freedom have so far counteracted demands for more rapid change. Marislova is a member of NATO’s Partnership for Peace (PfP) program and eventually hopes to become a NATO member. The country has been pursuing economic reforms in the hope of acceding to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and eventually the EU.

Governance The President, elected for five years by popular vote, is the head of state. A Prime Minister, normally the leader the majority party in parliament, heads the executive branch. The Prime Minster, with approval from the President, appoints government ministers. The legislature comprises a 400 seat unicameral council elected by popular vote on a proportional basis. The principal parties are: Democratic Left (center-left); Freedom Party (right); Free Liberals (center);

True Democrats (slightly fascist); Movement for the Left (ex-communist); and Green Tank (green, pacifist, anti-nationalist). A National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) develops internal and external national security policy.

Security and Defense The Marislovan Armed Forces are strong, well trained, and equipped with good, though somewhat dated equipment. Conscription is still accepted, but the longer term aim is to create an all professional force. Defense spending is running at 2.8% of GDP. The strategic posture of the Marislovan armed forces is still territorial defense and internal security; they have limited expeditionary capability. Details are provided below:

Army:

There are:

• 3 divisions;

- 13th Armored Division (Istvannograd)(with T80/T64 tanks),

- 8th Motor Rifle Division (central Marislova),

- 10th

Infantry Division (Kommersgrad).

• 2 brigades; Presidential Guard Brigade & 3rd Airborne Brigade (Mossaek).

Deployments: Two battalions are based in Denabia. A battalion from 10th Infantry is deployed along the Tashmara-South Kammarj border, and a battalion from 8th Motor Rifle along the Tashmara-Tashmak border.

There are also three reserve infantry divisions.

Navy:

• 3 destroyers, (30 years old, with surface-to-surface missiles, torpedoes, light guns, and antiaircraft artillery)

• 6 frigates, (15 years old, with older technology anti-aircraft and anti-submarine capabilities)

• 2 corvettes, (40 years old, with 4 inch guns)

• 2 minesweepers, (20 years old)

• 4 diesel-electric submarines, (25 years old)

• 12 river patrol vessels. (5 years old, with light guns)

A Naval Infantry brigade is stationed in Hannibal, with one battalion in Kommersgrad. Most of the navy’s dockyard facilities are based in Hannibal. Naval missions are infrequent, mostly coastal in nature, and usually designed to stop smuggling.

Air Force:

• 1st Fighter Regiment (Kommersgrad) (40 x MIG 29),

• 2nd Ground Attack Squadron (Istvannograd) (16 x SU 25),

• 3rd Transport Squadron (Mossaek) (12 x An-2)

• 5th Helicopter Squadron (central Marislova) (24 x Mi 8)

• Air Force flying hours average 40/50 hrs per year.

Border Guards: Six 500-person, lightly equipped battalions. Two battalions are based in Denabia. The Border Guards report to the Minister of the Interior, except for the Denabian battalions, which report to the Foreign Minister.

Economy The Marislovan economy is healthy but vulnerable. GDP has grown at 3.5% for six consecutive years. Inflation is stable at 4%. Manufacturing is the most important sector (44% of GDP, and 55% of hard currency earnings), concentrated in a belt along the River Dena in the north. The River Dena carries 80% of manufactured, and 49% of overall, exports. Marislova is dependent on Goria and Denabia for its power supplies; as Goria and Denabia will not barter power, Marislova requires nearly $100 million a year in hard currency to pay for this electric power− this is not a problem as long as the Dena remains open as a conduit for heavy industry.

Strategic Concerns Marislova’s principal strategic concern is the Denab basin. Marislova sees the Denabia- Tashmara border as its own first line of defense; it cannot afford to see the eastern bank of the river in hostile or unstable hands. It must have free navigation down the river to provide money for power and a route for its manufactured goods, without which its economy would be crippled.

It therefore wants a stable Goria and, above all, a stable Denabia. Though it needs to retain its bases in Denabia, it has no desire to incorporate the country, feeling this would worsen the nationalities problem. Although Tashmara is still considered a potential threat to Denabia, there are greater concerns about transnational crime and the possibility of terrorist attacks by nationalist extremists.

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Goria In-Country Brief

General Goria is a mountainous country with an ancient Christian and warrior tradition. It has a population of 8 million. The state is divided into three provinces, Hokr, Klav and North Kammar, which roughly correspond with traditional tribal areas. Historically, Gorian tribes often fought each other, but usually united against foreign invaders from Russia, Marislova or Iran.

Despite tribal loyalties, the devolution of authority to the provinces, combined with steady economic growth have ensured that Goria has been stable since its independence in 1991.

Governance A directly elected, largely ceremonial President heads the state. A Prime Minister, who is appointed from the group with a governing majority in the National Assembly, leads the government. The National Assembly is the principal legislative body, elected by universal franchise; the second chamber, the Council of Elders made up of the hereditary chiefs of the mountain clans, is a consultative body with the power only to delay legislation. Legislation passes with a simple majority vote. Under the 1991 Constitution, ministerial posts are restricted to members of the legislature. An elected regional council with control over the local police administers each province. The government is a weak coalition made up of the Progress Party (center-left), Liberal Party (center-right), and Gorian Hearth (romantic nationalist), and the Motherland Party (ex-Communist) is the principal opposition.

Security and Defense Goria is a member of PfP, but has no current ambitions to join NATO. It maintains close military links with the Russian Federation and there is a Russian army base at Klavkag. The Gorian armed forces are relatively weak, 70% of soldiers are conscripts and much equipment dates from the Cold War era. Defense spending is just 1.5% of GDP. Details are provided below:

Army:

• Four understrength “divisions”:

- Tank Division. (Hokha) (T-72)

- Mountain Division. (Klavkag )

- Rifle Division. (Gronovlad)

- Motorized Division. (Rokno) (BMP1)

The Mountain Division (deployed against smugglers on the eastern and northern borders) is the most combat capable and conducts exercises with Russian Federation forces.

Navy: Goria has no navy.

Air Force: The airforce has fifteen fixed wing fighter and ground attack aircraft (MIG 25 and SU 25), a transport squadron, and thirty well maintained Mi24 and Mi8 helicopters. Flying training is below the desired level.

Border Guards: There are six lightly equipped 500-person battalions. One battalion is based in each province, except North Kammar that contains two. Two battalions are in the capital; these serve as a national reserve police force and Presidential Guard and are in a high state of readiness. Equipment includes armored cars, mortars and light anti-tank weapons. The border guards have three armed patrol boats to patrol the River Dena. The Border Guards, although overstretched are considered to be highly reliable and reasonably capable. They report to the Minister of the Interior.

Economy GDP has grown steadily at around 3% in the last decade. Agriculture production has increased and revenue from hydroelectricproduction (HEP) and the tolls on the Rokno locks have remained healthy. The Russian Federation and Marislova are the principal trading partners. However, there is also a substantial smuggling trade over the borders, especially with Tashmara.

Strategic Concerns Like Marislova, Goria depends on stability in the Dena basin and the uninterrupted flow of trade on the Dena River. Goria has two specific security concerns:

• Activity by Kammarjan separatists in Denabia could potentially destabilize North Kammar Province and lead to pressure for an independent Kammarjan state carved out of Goria and Denabia.

• The increasing involvement of sophisticated, well armed transnational criminal cartels in smuggling activity in Goria. Especially alarming is the increase in drug, human and arms trafficking. The increased smuggling trade has caused growing concern in the Russian Federation.

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Denabia In-Country Brief

Denabia has a population of 4.5 million people who live mainly in cities on the River Dena, which flows through the middle of Denabian territory. Denabia is the weakest and most vulnerable state in Cerulea. State institutions are weak and relations between the major ethnic groups remain tense. Denabia is divided into three ethnically distinct provinces; South Kammar, Tashmak, and Cisdenab. Each provincial government has wide administrative powers, tax-raising authority and control over police and National Guard formations. Denabia has still not recovered fully from the civil war of the early 1990s and there is widespread support for separatist political parties in Tashmak and South Kammar provinces.

Governance Denabia has a directly elected President, who is head of state. The Prime Minister and head of the executive branch is currently a Cisdenab from the Progressive Party. The State Assembly in the capital city of Klyj is a unicameral parliament, made up of directly elected members and representatives from the provincial councils (divided equally between the three provinces);

legislation requires a majority of each block to pass. A simple majority vote can dismiss the government. Political parties reflect the ethnic divisions within the state. The strongest Cisdenab group is the Progressive Party with the largest number of seats in the Assembly. The main Kammarjan political party is the Justice Party, which is increasingly secessionist. The strongest Tashmak grouping is the Tashi People’s Party; originally a party of the old nomenklatura, it is now becoming Islamist and affiliated to the Truth Party of Tashmara. Over recent years in an attempt to keep the fragile Denabian state intact, power has increasingly been devolved to the provincial councils where political corruption is widespread.

Security and Defense The Denabian government has been attempting to conduct security sector reform with the aim of establishing a single state army. A national Ministry of Defense has been founded, but progress towards integrating provincial National Guard (NG) formations into a standing army has met fierce resistance from provincial authorities. The NG formations control their own recruitment and training and answer to the provincial councils. The Ministry of Defense’s authority extends only over a small presidential guard and the maintenance of the defense pact with Marislova.

The Cisdenab NG is of brigade strength, but poorly armed. The Cisdenab NG’s most able personnel usually transfer to the Marislovan armed forces. The Tashmak NG is at full brigade strength and has high morale but limited competence. It has recently benefited by the transfer of arms from Tashmara. The Kammar NG is the largest and most politicized. Of division size, it has artillery, armor, and Mi-8 helicopters, but training standards are generally poor.

The only competent, statewide, armed organization is the 4,000 person State Police; a paramilitary force primarily trained in public order duties. Organized in company-size groups, motorized and without any heavy weapons, it is answerable to the Minister of the Interior.

Denabia has no navy, air force or border guards, but does maintain State Police patrol boats on the Dena.

Under a bi-lateral defense pact of 1993, Marislova maintains two army battalions and two border guard battalions in Denabia. Their role is territorial defense and border security. These forces are stationed in the volatile South Kammar and Tashmak provinces, but keep a low profile to avoid inflaming anti-Cisdenab feeling. The Marislovan Navy also patrols the Dena delta.

Economy Denabia’s political difficulties have hurt its economy, GDP growth is minimal. Most agricultural goods are still bartered rather than sold. Foreign investment is deterred by instability and widespread corruption with links to organized crime. Manufacturing, though potentially strong, has been hampered by heavy provincial taxes. Plans for a free port at Hannibal have also had to be put on hold. The only significant investment has been in the tourist industry, with resorts concentrated around Lake Riban.

Strategic Concerns Denabia is in danger of becoming a failed state. Each of its neighbors benefits from having a comparatively homogeneous population or a strong sense of national identity, but in Denabia the central government remains weak and secessionist and criminal activity present a growing threat to the state’s survival. Given the strategic significance of the Dena basin to the whole Cerulean region, the collapse of Denabia would likely result in a regional war and prompt international intervention.

Tashmara In-Country Brief

Tashmara is the largest and most populous state in the region, with 17 million inhabitants. It benefits from ethnic and religious homogeneity. Like its neighbor Iran, the majority of the population is Shiite Muslim, although the government is essentially secular rather than Islamist.

In recent years, Tashmara has benefited from increased oil revenues and foreign investment in the offshore oil and gas fields in the Cerulean Sea, but poverty remains endemic and there is growing support for Islamist movements especially among the poor.

Governance Tashmara is a highly centralized state. Its executive President appoints his own government.

Though parliament has two directly elected Chambers both are compliant, often mute bodies, given that the President oversees the commission, which approves candidates. The principal obstacle to his will is the Council of the Guardians of the Faith, a quasi-official grouping of the leading mullahs, which has significant moral authority. This Council also controls the Guardians of the Faith, an unofficial militia that harasses organizations that it deems heretical. The President has tried to accommodate and absorb the growing Islamist movement.

Representative democracy exists only at the county level; the 36 elected county councils control local issues. Much of the Guardians of the Faith’s popularity arises from its work on welfare and reconstruction projects and the once secular county councils are gradually becoming Islamist.

There are three main political parties. The Islamic Socialist Party has secular roots and supports the President. The Liberal Party is a weak official opposition, broadly centrist. The Truth Party is nationalist, anti-Socialist and under growing Islamist influence.

Security and Defense The proportion of GDP devoted to defense has grown in recent years and now stands at 3.5%.

The armed forces are the largest in the region but relatively poorly equipped and trained. Much equipment dates from the Cold War era, the majority of the soldiers are conscripts, and there is evidence of Islamist infiltration of the officer corps. The recent upsurge in government revenues has resulted in new anti-armor missiles, air defense weapons and transport helicopters purchased from the Russian Federation, but no fundamental reform or re-structuring. Details of the armed forces are as follows:

Army: The core of the army consists of four Motor Rifle (MR) divisions and one tank division (called “armies”) with a mixture of active and reserve brigades and supporting arms. Most active brigades are reasonably well equipped and trained (T-72/BMP-1 & 2) but reserve formations have obsolete equipment (T-62/BTR-60) and poor training and leadership.

• The 2nd Army (1 x Presidential Guard MR & 1 x Tank Division) is based is based south of Sukra. This is the best formation in the Tashmaran army, but many infantry units are deployed on counter smuggling operations along the border with Denabia.

• 1st Army is based Labrog near the Iranian border.

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• 3rd Army is based at Kubai on the Russian border

• 4th Army is based at Khargiz. It has also detached units to operate as light infantry in. counter smuggling operations

Navy: The Tashmaran navy is a coastal force, based in Damask. It has 2 frigates, 2 corvettes 2 diesel electric submarines. All of these vessels are obsolete. There are 8 new fast attack boats with light guns and surface-to surface missiles.

Air Force: There is a shortage of spares and trained aircrew, but morale is high and the force is professional and apolitical.

• 5th Fighter Wing (Damask) (12 x MIG 29, 12 x MiG 25)

• 21st Ground Attack Wing (Sukra) (12 x SU 25)

• 30th Reconnaissance Wing (central Tashmara) (12 x SU 24)

• 32nd Helicopter Wing (western Tashmara) (18 x Mi 8)

Border Force: This force is recruited from the frontier tribes. The force is lightly armed and uses civilian vehicles or horses and camels. It has 4,900 personnel, organized in Lashkars, or tribal battalions, of 350 persons each. The border guards are not considered politically reliable and some officials are known to take bribes from smuggling gangs to supplement their poor pay and conditions.

Economy The Tashmaran economy is heavily dependent on oil and gas revenues. GDP growth is currently a healthy 6%, but the manufacturing and agricultural sectors remain weak and rural poverty is still widespread. Efforts to improve agricultural and industrial investment and productivity have been hampered by corruption and ill conceived irrigation projects that have worsened desertification in some eastern counties.

Strategic Concerns Tashmara’s principal strategic concern stems from internal pressures. The President wants to curb the Islamist influence without confronting it directly; an overtly Islamic state would be perceived as a threat by neighboring states. However, a large number of ethnic Tashmaks live in the Tashmak Province of Denabia. Their security and welfare are a source of popular concern in Tashmara. The President is thus anxious to avoid being drawn into Denabia’s troubles, yet unwilling to crack down on the Guardians of the Faith’s activities in support of Tashmak and South Kammarjan separatists.