Attachment J.3 - PSNP 5 General PIM Final (1).pdf

General Programme Implementation Manual

Ministry of Agriculture Addis Ababa

Table of Contents

SECTION 1. ABOUT THE PSNP PROGRAMME IMPLEMENTATION MANUAL

1.1 Legal Status, Approval and Revision of the PIM

1.2 Organization and Structure of the PIM

1.3 Complementary Guidelines and Reference Documents

SECTION 2. BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT

2.1. Background

2.2.Policy Framework 2.3.Key priorities for PSNP 5

SECTION 3. OVERVIEW OF PSNP5

3.1. Introduction

3.2. Programme Goal

3.3. Programme Outcome

3.4. Programme Outputs

3.5. Programme Principles

3.6. Programme Outputs and Activities

3.7. Scale and Scope

3.8. Specific Role of NGOs in the implementation of PSNP

SECTION 4. ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL SAFEGUARDS

4.1. Environmental and Social Standards (ESS)

4.2. Environmental and Social Commitment Plan (ESCP)

4.3. Citizens engagement and GRM

4.4. Gender equity and gender gap

SECTION 5. MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEM (MIS)

5.1. Overview

5.2. MIS Components and Structure

5.3. MIS Phase 2 Modules

5.4. MIS Rollout

SECTION 6. INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS

6.1. Introduction

6.2. Governance System in PSNP5

6.3. The PSNP5 Governance System

6.4. Institutional Arrangements for Implementation

Acronyms

AIDS Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome CCC Community Care Coalition CFSTF Community Food Security Task Force EWRD/ Early Warning and Response Desk/Process FSD/P Food Security Desk HEP Health Extension Programme IT Information Technology KFSTF Kebele Food Security Task Force MIS Management Information System MOLSA Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs NGO Non-governmental Organization OA Operational Annex PASS Payroll and Attendance Sheet System PDS Permanent Direct Support PSNP Productive Safety Net Programme PW Public Work SNNP Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples (Region) WFSD/P Woreda Food Security Desk WOFED Woreda Office of Finance and Economic Development WOLSA Woreda Office of Labour and Social Affairs

SECTION 1. ABOUT THE PSNP PROGRAMME IMPLEMENTATION MANUAL

This is the Programme Implementation Manual (PIM) for PSNP 5 of the Government of Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP). The PIM is the final source of guidance on programme concepts, objectives, principles and procedures.

This is the sixth major version of the PIM since the initiation of the PSNP in 2005. The history of earlier versions is as follows:

• Original PIM, produced December 2004

• Revision in March 2006

• Further revision in July 2006

• Addendum to July 2006 PIM in October 2006

• Addendum to July 2006 PIM in January 2010

• PIM for Phase III, dated May 2010

• First edition of PIM for Phase 4 dated December 2014

• Phase IV PIM dated June 2016

• This version dated December 2020.

A number of design changes were introduced to the PSNP5, and this PIM describes the new processes and procedures that support these design changes.

This is the overall programme manual, and as such it applies to all PSNP woredas – be they supported by Government or NGOs.

1.1 Legal Status, Approval and Revision of the PIM

The PIM is prepared on the basis of the PSNP design described in the Project Appraisal Document (PAD) and the Government Design Document, and in accordance with the Financing Agreement (FA) between the Federal Republic of Ethiopia and the International Development Association (IDA).

As per the FA (Section I.B of Schedule 2 ), the government of Ethiopia must prepare and adopt the Project Implementation Manual setting out rules, methods, guidelines, and procedures for the carrying out of the Project; and furnish it to the approval of IDA.

The PIM must therefore be approved by IDA (referred to in the PIM as World Bank) and may not be amended, nor any provision waived, without the written agreement of the World Bank.

In case of conflict between the provisions of the PIM and the PAD and/or the FA, the provisions of the PAD and/or FA will prevail.

The PIM must be reviewed once a year, updated in case changes have occurred or are necessary to include, and submitted to the World bank for No Objection. It will be revised, in full or in part, if:

• Evidence gathered from the regular review and supervision missions recommend a revision;

• There are changes in any of the accompanying manuals and annexes; and

• The GoE and the World Bank agree that there is a need to revise the PIM.

1.2 Organization and Structure of the PIM

1.2.1. Structure around operational processes

The PIM reflects the new design of the PSNP as it is described in the Design Document of the GOE and the PAD of the project “Strengthen Ethiopia’s Adaptive Safety Net Project” (SEASN), and as captured in the FA.

Whereas the PAD is organized around “components” or “subcomponents”, and the Design Document of the GOE is organized around “outputs”, the PIM is organized around main groups of operational procedures (sometimes referred to as “sub-programmes” or “programmes” in the PIM). The Management information System (MIS) modules also reflect this organisation around operational processes.

Each of these sub-programmes have their own criteria and process to select beneficiaries, type and level of benefits, conditionalities attached to the benefits, entry and exit procedures, etc. They may have relations between them, but they are operationally distinct.

According to this definition, the PSNP has 5 sub-programmes:

• Public Works (PW)

• Temporary Direct Support (TSD)

• Permanent Direct Support (PDS)

• Livelihoods Services, and

• Shock Responsiveness.

Some processes are common to these sub-programmes: for example the targeting, registry and enrolment follow similar processes for PW and PDS, albeit with sometimes different criteria.

The PIM is therefore structured around:

• Operations Manuals, that describe the overall set of procedures for each sub-programme;

• Operational Annexes, that describe in detail those processes that are common to several sub-programmes.

1.2.2. Operations Manuals

Volume 1: General PIM:

This is a manual introducing the PSNP’s background, context, goals, principles, outcomes and outputs, and scale and scope. It also includes a section on the PSNP 5 Safeguards, on the Management Information System (MIS) and on institutional roles and responsibilities.

Volume 2: Public Works Operations Manual:

The PWs Operations Manual describes the policies and processes that rule the programme for the public works component, in order to efficiently and effectively implement the programme. The volume starts with a description and the document is subdivided into three Sections:

• Programme Policies and Parameters

• Programme Entry and Exit

• Public Work Implementation and Attendance

Volume 3: Temporary Direct Support Operational Manual

The TDS Operations Manual describes the policies and processes that rule the programme for the TDS component, in order to efficiently and effectively implement the programme. The volume starts with a description and the document is subdivided into three Sections:

• TDS Programme Policies and Parameters

• TDS Enrolment and Exit

• Key roles and responsibilities

Volume 4: Permanent Direct Support Operational Manual

The PDS Operations Manual describes the policies and processes that rule the programme for the PDS component, in order to efficiently and effectively implement the programme. The volume starts with a description and the document is sub-divided into three Sections:

• PDS Programme Polices and Parameters

• PDS Entry and Exit

• Case Management of PDS Clients

Volume 5: Livelihoods Operational Manual

• Programme Polices and Parameters

• Livelihoods Pathways and implementation

Volume 6: Drought/Shock Responsiveness Operational Manual

• Programme Polices and Parameters

1.2.3. Operational Annexes

OA 1: Targeting, Registry and Enrollment

The Targeting, registry and enrolment Operational Annex describes processes that the targeting of households to become PSNP beneficiaries. It complements the two following operations Manuals: The Public Works operations Manual, and the Permanent Direct Support operations manual.

OA 2: Payments

The payments Operational Annex describe the payment processes for permanent direct support and for public works beneficiaries.

OA 3: Annual Planning

The Annual Planning Operational Annex describes the various planning activities that needs to take place prior to commencing programme implementation.

OA 4: Resource Management

The Resource Management Operational Annex describes management of PSNP resources and is divided into the following five chapters:

• Financial Management

• Food Management

• Procurement

• Human Resource Management

• Physical Resource Management

OA 5: Grievance Redress Management (GRM)

The Grievance Redress Mechanism annex describes the means by which programme clients and community members can raise grievances with different aspects of programme implementation and get these grievances resolved.

OA 6: Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning (MEL)

The Monitoring and Evaluation Operational Annex describes the monitoring and reporting processes for the programme along with a number of monitoring and evaluation tools.

OA 7: Capacity Development

The CD OA provides the systematic approach to annual programming of CD support for PSNP. It covers the critical procedures and standards which must be applicable for the whole program and across all implementing agencies.

OA 8: Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF)

The ESMF OA describes the potential environmental and social issues arising from PW and the livelihoods component and identifies mitigation actions on how to address these issues. In addition, certain technical aspects may be covered by guidelines. Guidelines are documents aiming at providing guidance on certain technical aspects of programme implementation and are not binding in the same way as are OMs and OAs. Guidelines must not contradict procedures described in manuals and annexes.

1.3 Complementary Guidelines and Reference Documents

This PIM includes all the key processes of the PSNP that all implementers must follow. However, it is not an entirely standalone document, and some aspects of programme implementation are further detailed in separate documents.

There are several types of documents that need to be consulted together with the PIM:

● Documents that are considered as annexes to the PIM: these documents describe processes that must be followed by all implementers. As they are part of the PIM, they are considered legally binding, in the same way the PIM is. Although they are annexes to the PIM, they are standalone documents that have been produced at different dates than the PIM – and are therefore not attached to the PIM file.

● Reference documents: these documents mostly include technical guidelines, which provide guidance but do not include procedures that are legally binding.

The table below lists all the documents that complement the PSNP PIM and their status.

Table 1. Comprehensive List of Documents (PIM Annexes or Reference Documents)

Name of document Date of last revision

Language Status

Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF)

January

English Annex to the

PIM

Stakeholder Engagement Plan (SEP)

January

English Annex to the

PIM

Environmental and social Commitment Plan (ESCP)

October

English Annex to the

PIM

Community-Based Participatory Watershed Or Rangeland Development Guidelines

August

English Reference

Contingency planning guideline

Reference

MIS user’s Manual English Reference

PWMDBIS English Reference:

Coaching and mentoring guidelines for DA’S

Reference

Technical guidelines for livelihood pathways will be developed as part of the LH redesign

Training curriculum for livelihood pathways will be developed as part of the LH re-design

Financial Management guidelines

Annex of the

PIM

Procurement guideline Annex of the

PIM

Comprehensive National Case Management Guideline for PSNP Clients and other Vulnerable Groups

Decemb er 2019

Reference

SECTION 2. BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT

2.1. Background

Ethiopia’s economy registered strong, broad-based growth averaging about 10% a year from 2007/08 to 2017/18, compared to a regional average of 5.4%1. Higher economic growth brought with it positive trends in poverty reduction. However, sustaining positive economic growth and accelerating poverty reduction remains a challenge. According to a UNDP report in 2018, over 22 million people are living below the national poverty line2. Poverty is a predominantly rural phenomenon in Ethiopia; an estimated 25.6 percent people in rural Ethiopia are below the poverty line, which necessitates a programme like PSNP to help build their resilience to shocks.

Prior to 2005, the needs of both acute and chronically food insecure people were met through emergency appeals, even though the shortfalls faced by the latter group are structural in nature and not necessarily related to short-term events such as drought. While the emergency assistance succeeded in saving many lives by meeting the short-term food consumption needs of the chronically food insecure, it was unpredictable for both planners and households, often arriving late relative to the need. The delayed and uncertain aid did little to address the underlying causes of food insecurity, had minimal impact on protecting livelihoods, preventing environmental degradation, generating community assets, or preserving household assets (physical or human capital). As a result, household-level food insecurity remained both widespread and chronic in Ethiopia3.

In 2005, the Government of Ethiopia, with the support from Development Partners, designed and commenced implementation of a Food Security Programme, which included a Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) as well as complementary programming to strengthen local livelihoods.

The launch of the PSNP in 2005 represented a pivotal departure from the cycle of annual emergency food aid appeals. The PSNP provided food and/or cash transfers to food insecure households in chronically food insecure woredas in exchange for labor-intensive public works, while labor-poor households received unconditional “direct support” transfers. The public works component, which covered approximately 80% of programme participants, focused on the implementation of soil and water conservation measures and the development of community assets such as roads, water infrastructure, schools, and clinics. The Livelihoods4 component provided productive asset packages on credit in order to build household assets and enable graduation from the PSNP.

PSNP has evolved through several phases, and the programme has witnessed significant expansion and some important improvements in its design and implementation over the years. Building on the lessons learned from PSNP4 (2015–2020) and the historical evolution of the programme, PSNP5 will continue to focus on building resilience of the extreme poor and vulnerable. The cornerstone of PSNP5’s strategy is a strong emphasis on system building, modernization, and transparent accountable structures with key outputs of 1) Timely and adequate transfers received by eligible core caseload of clients; 2) Shock-responsive transfers received by eligible clients when needed; 3) Public Works respond to community livelihoods needs and contribute to disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation and mitigation; 4) Linkages to available social services facilitated for core PSNP clients with

1 Ethiopia Overview https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ethiopia/overview. Accessed on 22/05/2020 2 UNDP Ethiopia (2018) ‘Ethiopia’s Progress Towards Eradicating Poverty’ Paper presented on the Inter -Agency Group Meeting On the “Implementation of the Third United Nations Decade for the Eradication of Poverty (2018 – 2027)”. Available at https://www.un.org/development/desa/dspd/wp-content/uploads/sites/22/2018/04/Ethiopia%E2%80%99s-Progress-Towards- Eradicating-Poverty.pdf. Accessed on 22/05/2020 3 World Bank (2006) ‘Project Appraisal Document PSNP APL II .

4 Livelihoods support was mainstreamed in PSNP in 2015. Prior to this, it was addressed through complementary programmes.

https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ethiopia/overview https://www.un.org/development/desa/dspd/wp-content/uploads/sites/22/2018/04/Ethiopia%E2%80%99s-Progress-Towards-Eradicating-Poverty.pdf https://www.un.org/development/desa/dspd/wp-content/uploads/sites/22/2018/04/Ethiopia%E2%80%99s-Progress-Towards-Eradicating-Poverty.pdf emphasis on PDS and TDS; 5) Tailored livelihood options accessed by eligible PSNP clients; and 6) PSNP management and capacity enhanced.

2.2.Policy Framework

With about 109 million people (2018), Ethiopia is the second most populous nation in Africa, and the fastest growing economy in the region. However, with a per capita income of $790, Ethiopia is also one of the poorest countries, yet it aims to reach lower-middle-income status by 2025. The country’s economy experienced strong, broad-based growth averaging 9.9% a year from 2007/08 to 2017/18, compared to a regional average of 5.4%. However, the current COVID-19 pandemic will have a severe impact on the economy. It is estimated that the pandemic will cost sub-Saharan Africa between $37 billion and $79 billion in output losses due to disruption to trade and value chains, reduced foreign investment and aid. As one of sub-Saharan Africa’s most populous countries, Ethiopia will be severely affected by the pandemic. The country’s Growth and Transformation Plan (GTPI I), the second five-year national development plan is ending in 2019/20. The government is currently developing a new plan, the ‘Ten-Year Strategic Development Plan’.5 6

The PSNP 5 aligns with the 10-year strategic development plan and directly contributes to the realization of three of the strategic directions: ensuring quality economic growth, ensuring that women and youth are properly benefited, and building climate change resilient green economy.

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a collection of 17 global goals designed to be a "blueprint to achieve a better and more sustainable future for all"7, were set in 2015 by the United Nations General Assembly and are intended to be achieved by the year 2030. The 2030 SD agenda aims at alleviating poverty and hunger from all people, saving the world from climate change, fostering all-inclusive peace and freedom and ensuring well-being and prosperity for all humanity8. It.is ‘well in harmony with the development needs of the people of Ethiopia,’ according to a document by the National Planning Commission9. It accelerates the broad-based, all-inclusive and rapid economic growth, social and economic development, environmental development and building of a democratic system.

PSNP5 contributes towards the realization of most of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It has direct relevance to at least 12 of the 17 SDGs, namely: no poverty; zero hunger; good health and well-being; quality of education; gender equality; clean water and sanitation; decent work and economic growth; industry, innovation and infrastructure; reduced inequality; climate action; life on land; and partnerships. (Refer to Annex 2 for description of these SDGs and how PSNP5 contributes to them.)

2.2.1. Key GOE Policies informing PSNP5

Five complementary policies provide a more specific framework for PSNP5. In particular, the Social Protection Policy and the Disaster Risk Management Policy (DRMP) provide the majority of the foundational framework for the PSNP5. These are complemented by the National Food and Nutrition Policy (NFNP) and the Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE). The Green Legacy Initiative launched by the Prime Minister’s office in 2019 further complements the CRGE. The Pastoral Development

5 ኢትዮጵያ 2022፣ ፍኖተ ብልጽግና፤ የአሥር ዓመት መሪ የልማት ዕቅድ (2013 – 2022) ( Translation: Ethiopia 2030: Road Map to Prosperity: Ten-

Year Strategic Development Plan) DRAFT 6 Note: Official translation of the document is not available yet; therefore, author of the PSNP5 design document takes responsibility for translations used in the document.

7 "About the Sustainable Development Goals". United Nations Sustainable Development. Retrieved 05 May 2020.

8 ibid 9 National Planning Commission (2018). Accelerating the Implementation of the 2030 Agenda in Ethiopia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_General_Assembly https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_General_Assembly https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/sustainable-development-goals/

Policy10 endorsed in 2019 informs PSNP5’s design and implementation in lowland regions. Addressing the challenges of growing youth unemployment has led to the establishment of the Job Creation Commission as per proclamation 1097/2018. The regulation 435/2018 promulgated by the council of ministers mandated the commission with the authority to lead the job creation agenda, coordinate stakeholders, and monitor and evaluate performance. The strategies outlined by the Commission11 inform the livelihoods (employment pathway) aspect of PSNP5.

PSNP5 supports the Social Protection Policy by reducing institutional budgetary fragmentation among services supporting the same client (such as the safety net, livelihoods support, and nutrition and health services). Specifically, PSNP5 pursues the harmonization activities referenced above and serves as a platform to facilitate linkage to social services to its clients. Through the Public Work (PW) subprojects (e.g. construction of social infrastructure), PSNP also contributes to further development of basic services for health and education for its clients. The programme also supports livelihood and employment schemes.

PSNP5 is an important contributor to the Disaster Risk Management Policy, whose objective is to reduce risks and the impacts of disasters through the establishment of a comprehensive and integrated disaster risk management system within the context of sustainable development. This will entail a shift from response and recovery to a multi-sectoral and comprehensive approach that focuses on disaster prevention, mitigation and preparation. PSNP5 contributes to disaster risk management by helping to improve national risk management. While transfers help poor households mitigate and cope with the impact of climate change induced shocks, PWs will aim at reducing the probability of a weather shock turning into a production shock, and/or reduce the severity of a shock when it occurs, thereby helping prepare households and communities against the impacts of disasters. Strengthening and adjusting the response instruments (PSNP contingency budgets, Disaster Risk Financing mechanisms and humanitarian resources) and putting in place single delivery system aims enabling timely and adequate responses.

The National Food and Nutrition Policy was approved in 2018 in line with the Seqota Declaration, which was passed in 2015 articulating the nation’s ambition to end malnutrition and stunting by 2030. PSNP5 will contribute to the NFNP through provision of timely, predictable, and adequate transfers to the extreme poor and vulnerable in rural Ethiopia. The programme integrates nutrition sensitive approaches and facilitates specific linkages to ongoing health and nutrition interventions.

PSNP5 contributes to the Climate Resilient Green Economy. Launched in 2011, the CRGE aims to build Ethiopia into a middle-income country by 2025 in a way that is both resilient to the negative impacts of climate change and does not result in a rise in greenhouse gas emissions. PSNP5 contributes to climate resilience by strengthening household resilience to shocks by increasing food security and livelihoods; and by reducing carbon emissions and increasing carbon sequestration through public works. Furthermore, PSNP5 contributes to the Green Legacy Initiative, which was launched in 2019 by the Prime Minister’s Office. Green Legacy, for a greener and cleaner Ethiopia, is a national go green campaign to educate society on the importance of adopting green behavior. The goal is to become a green society by planting eco-friendly seedlings to combat environmental degradation.

Afar and Somali regions and parts of Oromia and SNNP regions form the lowland areas comprising most of the pastoralist community in the country. The Pastoral Development Policy12 (PDP) endorsed in 2019 informs PSNP5’s design and implementation in lowland areas. PSNP underscores the importance of context specificity whereby development programmes are based on pastoral communities’ natural resources and the NRM styles applicable to their environment. PSNP recognizes

10 ሰላም ሚኒስቴር (2011 እ.ኢ.አ.) የኢፌድሪ የአርብቶአደር ልማት ፖሊሲና ማስፈጸሚያ ስትራቴጂዎች (ለመንግስት ውሳኔ የቀረበ የመጨረሻ ረቂቅ) (Translation:

Ministry of Peace (2019) FDRE Pastoral Development Policy and Implementation Strategies (Final Draft for government’s decisio n) 11 FDRE Job Creation Commission, Sustainable Jobs for All: Plan of Action for Job Creation 2020 -2025 12 ሰላም ሚኒስቴር (2011 እ.ኢ.አ.) የኢፌድሪ የአርብቶአደር ልማት ፖሊሲና ማስፈጸሚያ ስትራቴጂዎች (ለመንግስት ውሳኔ የቀረበ የመጨረሻ ረቂቅ) (Translation:

Ministry of Peace (2019) FDRE Pastoral Development Policy and Implemen tation Strategies (Final Draft for government’s decision) that for pastoralists who are not successful in nomadic livestock herding, it is important to engage them in sedentary farming and income generating activities (IGAs), hence, the inclusion of livelihoods component in this phase of PSNP

The National Community Based Participatory Watershed and Rangeland Development Guideline gives due attention, among other things, to identification and implementation of PW projects that are relevant to lowland contexts. The livelihoods component, which will start to be implemented in lowland regions13 in PSNP5, will contribute to the realization of the policy.

According to FDRE 10-Year Strategic Development Plan (DRAFT)14, the youth unemployment rate is estimated at 25.3% (18.6 among males and 30.9 among females). Estimated at 2%, rural unemployment seems much lower than urban unemployment. However, the document asserts that due to the declining smallholder farmers’ land-holding size, there is high ‘hidden rural unemployment’.

The FDRE Job Creation Commission (JCC) recognizes the need for improving the inclusiveness of the labor market: The Commission’s proposed strategies to address this challenge involve promoting off-farm activities, promoting women’s economic empowerment by implementing programmes that reduce the level of unpaid employment in rural areas among women, and expanding village and community-based economic empowerment and livelihood programmes for women.15

PSNP5 contributes to job creation for unemployed youth in rural Ethiopia. The livelihoods output of the programme promotes off-farm activities and wage employment. PSNP5 aims to enhance women’s equal participation and increase their benefit including in the programme’s livelihood pathways. The programme facilitates linkages to available employment opportunities. Furthermore, provision of numeracy, reading, and financial literacy skills is expected to increase programme clients’ employability and/or engagement in income generation activities. PSNP5 will hire rural youth as community facilitators to support the livelihoods, nutrition and other elements of the programme.

2.3.Key priorities for PSNP 5

Sustainable and predictable financing: PSNP5 is designed to fit within a sustainable financing envelope means that hard choices were made to determine what is to be funded. Accordingly, the following are identified as top priorities, which have been informed by the lessons learned from PSNP4:

1. Accountable and transparent governance structures: A robust accountability and governance structure will be put in place for PSNP5 at all levels to ensure the various implementing agencies will be accountable for their performance in delivering PSNP5 in accordance with their respective roles and responsibilities. This will include a combination of incentives and deterrents, with a strong focus on addressing capacity gaps in capabilities and systems, as well as implementing performance-based financing.

2. Focus on extreme poverty in drought-prone areas: PSNP5 will shift its focus from ‘chronic food insecurity’ to “extreme poverty”, thereby targeting and addressing the needs of the extreme poor (for core caseload) and the most vulnerable (for the transitory caseload). This will be accompanied by a re-alignment of PSNP woredas to drought prone woredas and the existing PSNP caseload will be re-allocated according to extreme poverty needs.

3. Ensuring timely, predictable and adequate transfers: This is a core element in PSNP and remains a top priority for PSNP5. New mechanisms to enhance timeliness will be introduced, such as automated payments, improvements and expansion of e-payments. Stronger accountability measures, for

13 A tailored and incremental approach will be adopted for livelihoods in lowland regions, beginning with 48 woredas with a livelihood grant. This will be assessed and verified before further expansion.

14 ኢትዮጵያ 2022፣ ፍኖተ ብልጽግና፤ የአሥር ዓመት መሪ የልማት ዕቅድ (2013 – 2022) ( Translation: Ethiopia 2030: Road Map to Prosperity: Ten-

Year Strategic Development Plan) DRAFT 15 Sustainable Jobs for All: Plan of Action for Job Creation, page 17 example performance-based conditions whereby funding is contingent on achieving timely transfers will also be introduced. Adequacy of transfers will be addressed through annual adjustments to the wage rate in line with consumer price index (CPI) to protect its real value.

4. Shock-responsive safety net: A single delivery system for assistance, particularly in response to droughts, will be made operational during PSNP5. The programme will transition from a scalable safety net in response to shocks to a more pre-emptive approach that will address the needs of the extreme poor in drought prone woredas. The shock-responsive safety net will encompass improved early warning systems, standard operating procedures for scale-up, and a drought response plan.

5. Rehabilitated watersheds to support livelihoods productivity: PSNP5 will place greater emphasis on utilizing rehabilitated watersheds to increase productivity of households, thereby creating the conditions for increased levels of programme exit.

6. PSNP5 will serve as a platform for linkages to social services: PSNP can contribute to strengthening relevant, existing social service delivery in its operational areas through, for example, construction/ maintenance of school blocks, health posts, etc. as part of its public work subprojects. Even though creation or development of the social services is not the role and realistic mandate of the programme, PSNP5 actively engages in facilitation, follow up, and monitoring of linkages to available services (case management) to its clients.

7. ‘Big push’ for on- and off-farm livelihoods: The livelihoods component will improve the targeting for livelihood support interventions to maximize their impact. The quality and intensity of support will also be enhanced through a reduction in the trainee to trainer ratio, revised package of support, increased livelihoods grant and by hiring community-based youth as community facilitators to support the extension service (in livelihoods as well as in other areas). The livelihoods programme will also be rolled out to lowland regions on a phased basis.

8. Mainstreaming gender, nutrition and social development: PSNP5 will continue to mainstream gender, nutrition and social development but will incorporate greater accountability measures, a mix of conditionality and incentive strategies, earmarking of resources where appropriate, and adoption of strategies to provide greater autonomy and control over resources for women.

2.4. Response to COVID-19

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), an infectious disease that was first identified in Wuhan, China in 2019, has since spread globally. While the rate of infection has been relatively slow in Ethiopia, the true scale of the outbreak is likely not yet clear. A nationwide State of Emergency was declared on April 8, 2020 for a period of five months to curb the spread of the virus, limiting travel, public gatherings, meetings and closing or reducing activity in government offices.

A World Bank report predicts that ‘sub-Saharan Africa will post its first recession in 25 years as the coronavirus pandemic brings economies to a halt and disrupts global trade’ 16. It is estimated that the pandemic will cost sub-Saharan Africa between $37 billion and $79 billion in output losses due to disruption to trade and value chains, reduced foreign investment and aid. As one of sub-Saharan Africa’s most populous countries, Ethiopia will be severely affected by the pandemic.

The impact of COVID-19 will be much worse among the extreme poor and vulnerable households that PSNP5 targets. They are vulnerable to both the direct health and indirect economic impacts. One possible scenario is that the pandemic persists through most of the first year of PSNP5 (or even longer), 16 Bloomberg, 2020. Available at https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-09/world-bank-sees-sub-saharan-africa-s-first-recession-in-25-years https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infectious_disease https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-09/world-bank-sees-sub-saharan-africa-s-first-recession-in-25-years https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-09/world-bank-sees-sub-saharan-africa-s-first-recession-in-25-years and the other scenario is that the pandemic subsides, but the economic effects on the extreme poor and vulnerable clients of PSNP continue especially during the first year of PSNP5.

In either scenario, it is important that the PSNP5 design recognises the potential impact of the pandemic on the programme and its clients, and identifies ways of mitigating the risks. Measures need to be taken to minimise the risks of programme clients contracting the virus as they participate in PSNP activities, and the activities themselves need to be prioritised especially during the first year of PSNP5, in case restricted movement and social distancing measures persist.

If proper and timely measures are not taken, the following challenges are expected to exacerbate the vulnerability of the extreme poor and vulnerable people in PSNP woredas to the pandemic and its economic effects:

• Lack of awareness coupled with lack of appropriate sanitary facilities/materials and personal protective equipment (PPE) make the extreme poor and vulnerable more susceptible to the spread of the pandemic.

• Decline in agricultural produce, high demand for food crops, and shortage of industrial food items like oil, may result in high inflation making it difficult for PSNP clients who receive cash transfers to access adequate food with the amount they receive.

• Lack of access to grains (both in the global and local market) and a food price crisis make both PSNP clients and non-PSNP households in PSNP woredas (and non-PSNP woredas) more vulnerable for an extended duration i.e. increased number of months with a food gap.

• The extreme poor may be forced to sell off their livelihood assets to survive the shock.

• Clients reducing/terminating regular saving affect RuSACCOs and VSLAs as they fully depend on members saving.

• MFIs and RuSACCos may have budget shortfalls due to low repayment rates.

• There are financial constraints to scaling up transfers to core PSNP clients for an extended duration, to non-PSNP households within PSNP woredas, and to beneficiaries in non-PSNP woredas.

• PSNP5 will take appropriate measures to address the challenges outlined above. Among the decisions already made to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic are: waiver of PW and permission to make lump sum payments to help beneficiaries cope with a possible food gap.

The proposed response measures are:

• Strengthen Behavior Change Communication (BCC) through including production of BCC materials to enhance awareness of programme clients about the pandemic and safety measures

• Install hand-washing facilities and enhance availability of sanitary (e.g. soap) materials and personal protective equipment (PPE) for programme beneficiaries and staff as appropriate

• Regularly adjust wage rate responding to expected regular price inflations

• Determine the need for extending duration of months of transfer support to PSNP clients;

identify the most vulnerable non-PSNP beneficiaries within PSNP (both current and new) woredas to extend shock-responsive transfers

• Support MFIs and RuSaCCos (this may involve injecting some liquidity from the programme) to enhance access to finance to the extreme poor and vulnerable.

SECTION 3. OVERVIEW OF PSNP5

3.1. Introduction

The design of PSNP5 builds on the achievements from previous phases, and on the lessons from these experiences, and makes adjustments in the light of this experience, and to address the key priorities.

Central to the design is its strategic framework, in the form of the PSNP5 logframe (which is presented in the Operational Annex “Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning”). The logframe forms the structure around which the higher level of objectives and detail of implementation are arranged.

This section presents an overview of the whole programme, including explanation of the programme strategic framework and the reasons why it has been designed in the way it has. First, it explains the wider programme Goal to which PSNP 5 contributes and the expected Outcome of the programme.

Then it explains which Outputs are required to achieve the Outcome. Finally, it presents a number of principles.

3.2. Programme Goal

PSNP5 has the following Goal statement which it cannot achieve on its own but to which the programme is expected to meaningfully contribute alongside a raft of other efforts:

“Extreme poverty reduced in rural Ethiopia”

PSNP5 is a part of the national effort to reduce poverty from its current rate of 23.5%17, and the Goal statement links the programme to that wider effort. This linkage in PSNP5 is sharpened by the shift in focus from chronic food insecurity to extreme poverty as the overarching targeting criterion. There are several expected transmission channels between PSNP5 and poverty levels:

● The support provided by PSNP is likely to enable some participants in PSNP to ‘graduate’ from poverty based on the more successful livelihood strategies they adopt

● Depending on the level of support provided and the extent to which it tops up existing resources, some further households will move above the poverty level as a direct result of PSNP transfers received supporting their incomes and consumption

● Some non-participant poor households may benefit from the multiplier effects of PSNP transfers, which are estimated at 1.7218 and move above the poverty line; and

● Further households in receipt of PSNP transitory support are likely to remain above the poverty line in the event of any shocks, where they might otherwise have fallen below it without PSNP support.

Expectations of the PSNP contribution to national poverty reduction statistics will be shaped by the degree of engagement in PSNP by poor people, and by its success in addressing the causes of poverty:

coverage of PSNP comprises more than 60%19 of the rural woredas in the country; 39% of recipients of PSNP supported were below the poverty line in 201620; PSNP5 will reach 15% of the total number of people categorized as poor in Ethiopia21; and in this phase the livelihoods component will focus the ‘big push’ on 750,000 households.

Expected levels of poverty reduction from PSNP5 have not been calculated, and will depend on the effectiveness of support, and on the wider context for poverty reduction. Recent modeling22 suggests

17 HICES poverty statistics, 2015/16 18 Filipski et al (2017) 19 The percentage is expected to increase as PSNP expands to more woredas in PSNP5 20 World Bank (2020). Ethiopia Poverty Assessment 21 White (2020). Analysis conducted for DFID SEASN appraisal 22 White (2020). Analysis conducted for DFID SEASN appraisal that 700,000 people will be raised above the poverty line as a direct result of direct transfers under transmission channel ii) above.

A key issue is the sustainability of any poverty reduction supported by PSNP. The direct and temporary reduction from transfers is not sustainable poverty reduction and only persists as long as transfers are received. And analysis testifies to the dynamic nature of poverty in Ethiopia, with 50% of all households being poor in a five period23 so movement out of poverty does not necessarily mean a sustainable enhancement in status. This suggests the need for firm measures under PSNP5 to enhance the likelihood of poverty reduction being sustainable.

Measurement of poverty reduction involves a wide range of income and non-income indicators of welfare. However, the PSNP5’s contribution to achieving the programme Goal will be regularly measured through programme impact assessments, and through use of national poverty data and surveys.

Achievement of the PSNP5 Outcome and contribution towards the PSNP5 Goal will ensure that PSNP5 will contribute to national developmental objectives through the wider national policy framework.

3.3. Programme Outcome

The PSNP5 Outcome statement is the overall programme objective, which all PSNP interventions are collectively designed to achieve. It is stated as:

“Enhanced resilience to shocks of extreme poor and vulnerable rural households in PSNP woredas”

Resilience. The focus of PSNP efforts is therefore centered around the concept of resilience to shocks of participating clients. Resilience is understood in PSNP5 as ‘the ability of households and communities to absorb and recover from shocks, whilst positively adapting and transforming their structures and means for living in the face of long-term stresses, change and uncertainty. If PSNP5 is able to support its clients to be resilient to shocks, they will be able to protect consumption and assets in the face of shocks and so will be better placed to continue or enhance their livelihood trajectories thereafter. This is a fundamental requirement for addressing chronic and transitory food insecurity in the longer-term, both for individuals and communities.

Idiosyncratic and covariate shocks. The shocks referred to in the Outcome statement comprise idiosyncratic shocks and certain covariate shock. This is because if PSNP is to protect consumption and assets in order to enable its clients to become and remain non-poor it needs to protect them from personal household shocks such as loss of income, family ill-health or crop failure because these shocks have the potential to damage livelihood stability and sustainability and prevent progression. Equally larger-scale shocks, notably the droughts, which underlie the origin of PSNP and other climate-related shocks can have similar effects on large numbers of people simultaneously, and PSNP therefore protects its clients from these types of shocks and helps build their resilience over time.

Extreme poor and vulnerable rural households. In all phases to date, location of the PSNP in regions and woredas, and targeting criteria for individuals and households, have been based on chronic food insecurity. But recent analysis24 finds that food insecurity has fallen rapidly in Ethiopia between 2005 and 2016, notably in Afar and Somali, while extreme poverty for the poorest 10% has deepened – with the highest levels in SNNPR and Amhara. Woreda selection based on food insecurity does not now add to targeting performance, indicating the need for a change in approach. As indicated in the lessons and priority section above, PSNP5 will therefore for the first time focus its geographic and household targeting on extreme poverty and vulnerability to extreme poverty through shocks rather than chronic food insecurity. The specific vulnerability of women in married households and female headed

23 World Bank (2020) . Ethiopia Poverty Assessment 24 World Bank (2019) and World Bank (2020) households is considered, given that female farmers are less educated and have lower access to land and finance compared to their male counterparts. They are also less likely to attend extension programmes and use agricultural inputs like fertilizers, pesticides and herbicides, and as a result agricultural productivity is lower for female farmers. In the labor market, women are less likely to be in more desirable types of employment and earn substantially lower wages for similar characteristics.

The focus of PSNP5 remains on rural households, with the urban caseload increasingly captured by the Urban PSNP.

PSNP woredas. PSNP4 was operational in 382 woredas; and the number of woredas is expected to grow in PSNP5 as the programme expands its geographic footprint. Core PSNP components will be implemented in all these woredas. The shock-responsive transfers will be for non-PSNP households within the PSNP woredas. However, the refocusing of PSNP5 on extreme poverty and vulnerability will include a realignment of PSNP woredas to the most drought-prone woredas, which is not currently the case.

The dimensions of resilience will be unpacked in the M&E framework so that different aspects of resilience can be assessed, and progress towards Outcome can be tracked. These will include as key elements: enhanced food security; enhanced stability of assets; enhanced nutrition security; more secure livelihood assets and strategies; and climate change adaptation and mitigation.

3.4. Programme Outputs

The PSNP5 expected Outcome will be achieved through the combined effect of six Outputs through which PSNP5 will focus its efforts. These are as follows:

1. Timely and adequate transfers received by eligible core caseload of clients . This Output ensures the most in need people receive PSNP regular cash or food transfers as either direct support or in return for labor, enabling them to smooth consumption and prevent asset depletion. It focuses on ensuring these transfers are of sufficient value, are in the most appropriate form, can be received with low transaction costs, and arrive predictably on time.

2. Shock-responsive transfers received by eligible clients when needed. In times of shock, people in the PSNP core caseload may need additional support to protect consumption and assets, and others beyond the caseload may also be at risk. This Output allows the PSNP to scale up temporarily to provide this support, with systems in place to ensure an early response, which provides effective protection to recipients.

3. Public Works respond to community livelihoods needs and contribute to disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation and mitigation. Under this Output, PSNP labor-intensive public works are planned and delivered in ways, which maximize the benefits to PSNP clients and their wider communities, and support their wider livelihood needs.

4. Linkages to available social services facilitated for core PSNP clients with emphasis on PDS and TDS. This Output supports the poorest and most vulnerable PSNP clients, who are often socially marginalized, to access necessary services beyond the PSNP, such as for health, education, and nutrition.

5. Tailored livelihood options accessed by eligible PSNP clients . This Output supports selected households to improve their livelihoods by facilitation of appropriate strategies and investments and provision of cash grants and technical support.

6. PSNP management and capacity enhanced. This Output strengthens the ability of programme managers to deliver effectively on their responsibility to ensure the whole PSNP – as delivered through the other five Outputs – is well managed and governed, functions smoothly, and achieves against expectations.

Together these Outputs deliver the following:

• Well-targeted cash and food support to the most in need, to build food security;

• The ability to protect households in PSNP woredas from shocks so they are able to retain their assets;

• Appropriate community infrastructure which sustainably rebuilds environmental resilience and enables climate change mitigation and adaptation;

• Access to a wider set of social services which would otherwise not be available or accessible, and which help build human capital for the most vulnerable and counteract intergenerational transmission of poverty;

• New opportunities for appropriate and sustainable livelihood enhancement, providing the chance to graduate beyond the need for PSNP support for those who are successful;

• Inclusive and fair access to the programme benefits;

• All of which is well-managed, delivered effectively and maximizes potential impacts

These expected results provide the elements for building resilience among PSNP clients and communities, and for successful achievement of the PSNP5 Outcome, as long as key Assumptions hold true.

3.5. Programme Principles

Principles represent fundamental ideas that guide action, and are mandatory and not optional. The PSNP principles complement the programme strategy by providing additional guidance on programme design, programme implementation and informing ongoing decisions to ensure that adherence to the principles is always ensured. The following principles are adopted in PSNP5.

1. Focus on extreme poverty and the most vulnerable. PSNP5 support will address the needs of the extreme poor (for core caseload), the most vulnerable (for the transitory caseload), and the nutritionally vulnerable within these cohorts.

2. Fair and transparent client selection. Clients are selected through community-based targeting, with an effective appeal mechanism to address inclusion or exclusion errors. The client list is verified through public meetings during which it is read aloud and discussed. The final client list is also posted in public locations.

3. Timely, predictable and appropriate transfers. To create an effective safety net, clients must be sure that they can depend on the PSNP at all times. Transfers can be considered predictable if PSNP clients have timely knowledge of their eligibility for the programme, and they know what type of transfer they will receive, how much of this transfer they will receive and when they will receive it.