ATTACHMENT 5 - 2024-2025 WIC eligibles PWS - with ITO attachment.pdf

USDA Food and Nutrition Service (FNA) 2024 and 2025 Estimates of WIC Eligibility and Program Reach

PERFORMANCE WORK STATEMENT

1. Introduction and Purpose

The Food and Nutrition Administration (FNA) of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) seeks a single qualified contractor to produce accurate, reliable, and timely national, regional, and State agency (including territory-level) estimates of eligibility and program reach for calendar years (CY) 2024 and 2025 for the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC). These estimates will include eligibility counts, eligibility rates, coverage rates, and participation rates. The contractor shall compile these estimates into a public-facing report, as described below, which will be the latest in a long-running series.1 For the first time, the contractor shall also develop a methodology and generate county- and Congressional district level eligibility, coverage, and participation estimates for FNA internal use for 2024 and 2025.

2. Background

WIC is administered by 88 State agencies, including the 50 States, 32 Indian Tribal Organizations, the District of Columbia, and 5 U.S. Territories. WIC provides supplemental foods, health care referrals, breastfeeding support, and nutrition education to nutritionally at-risk, low-income pregnant, breastfeeding, and non-breastfeeding postpartum women, infants, and children under age five. These agencies are responsible for administering the work of about 1,800 local WIC agencies that, in turn, operate about 10,000 clinic sites. WIC clinics are the point of service for program participants. In fiscal year 2025, WIC served an average of 6.9 million participants each month.

FNA monitors WIC participation at the national and State agency levels and uses these statistics to track program performance, develop participation projections, and inform Federal budgeting. However, participation counts alone do not provide a complete picture of program reach. To fully assess program performance, understand unmet need, and support effective outreach, FNA requires estimates of the number of individuals who are eligible for WIC benefits and the share of the eligible population that is reached by WIC. These statistics are of interest to others outside of FNA including State and local program administrators, policy officials, and researchers. Estimates of eligibility, participation, eligibility rates, coverage rates, and participation rates are required under this contract and are defined in Table 1 below.

Table 1. Definitions of Estimated Measures Required in this Contract Measure Definition Eligibility counts The estimated number of individuals eligible to participate in WIC in an average month in the calendar year of interest.

Participation counts The number of individuals who enrolled in WIC and were issued their WIC food benefits in an average month in the calendar year of interest.2

1 For most recent report, see: Kessler C., Bryant A., Munkacsy K., Maxson S., Ressler D., Saluja R., and Farson Gray K.

(2025). National- and State-Level Estimates of the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) Eligibility and WIC Program Reach in 2023. Prepared by Westat, Contract No. GS-00F-009DA/140D0424A0040, Order No.

140D0424F1045. Alexandria, VA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service, Project Officer: Grant Lovellette.

Available online at: www.fns.usda.gov/research/wic/eer/2023.

2 Participation data come directly from information reported by State agencies to FNS through form FNS-798. WIC PC data is used to further disaggregate the share of participants by the age of children and other demographic characteristics not available in the FNS- 798 data. For more information on the FNS-798 report see: https://www.fns.usda.gov/wic/certification-and-monthly-food-benefits-issuance-cycles-and-reporting-monthly-participation-fns-798. The participation count also includes the breastfed infants of WIC participating breastfeeding women even though the breastfeed infants are not issued WIC food benefits.

http://www.fns.usda.gov/research/wic/eer/2023 https://www.fns.usda.gov/wic/certification-and-monthly-food-benefits-issuance-cycles-and-reporting-monthly-participation-fns-798 https://www.fns.usda.gov/wic/certification-and-monthly-food-benefits-issuance-cycles-and-reporting-monthly-participation-fns-798

Eligibility rate The percentage of the total population in each WIC participant category estimated to be eligible for WIC in an average month of the calendar year of interest.

Coverage rate The percentage of the total estimated eligible population in each WIC participant category that is issued WIC food benefits in an average month in the calendar year of interest. Coverage rates are useful for understanding how fully WIC reaches individuals who are eligible for the program. Coverage rate is sometimes referred to under the umbrella term “program reach.”

Participation rate The percentage of the general population in each WIC participant category – regardless of eligibility – that is issued WIC Food benefits in an average month in the calendar year of interest. For example, one of the most frequently cited estimates from the report series is that, in an average month in 2023, 41 percent of all infants in the U.S.

participated (i.e., enrolled and issued food benefits) in WIC. Participation rate is sometimes referred to under the umbrella term “program reach.”

History of the Methodological Approach In the early 2000s, the Committee on National Statistics of the National Research Council (CNSTAT), under contract to FNA, examined possible approaches to estimating the size of the national population eligible for WIC benefits. CNSTAT developed two methodologies, one based primarily on the Current Population Survey of the Bureau of the Census (CPS), and the other based on the Census’s Survey of Income and Program Participation. The result of CNSTAT’s work was published in 2003 (National Research Council).3 FNA adopted CNSTAT’s CPS-based methodology, and has published sets of estimates of the national, regional, and State WIC-eligible populations with contract support with various refinements, methodological enhancements, and changes in the underlying datasets requiring occasional re-estimation of the series.

For the 2020 WIC eligibility estimates, FNA did not commission a full report; instead, FNA contracted a complete review of the WIC estimation methodology, including a review of potential new data sources and methodologies. Together with input from a variety of independent and government experts, the contractor produced a memo that provided WIC eligibility estimates using four different estimation methodologies and that recommended a CPS-ASEC-based methodology as the preferred methodology for future estimates. This methodology was further refined with the production of the 2021, 2022, and 2023 WIC eligibility estimates.

3. Scope

Required Estimates The contractor shall develop estimates of WIC eligibility counts, eligibility rates, coverage rates, and participation rates, as defined above in Table 1. Tasks under this contract shall produce 2024 and 2025 estimates and a full combined 2024/2025 report. A brief publication for 2024 estimates shall also be produced to provide timely 2024 estimates at least at the national level. The estimates will be based on the current methodology recommended in the 2020 recommendation memo (the recommendation memo will be provided to potential offerors upon request) with further adjustments as described in subsequent reports between 2021- 2023.

Participant Categories Although computation of the percent of U.S. children participating in WIC is reasonably straightforward, measuring program participation among the general population of pregnant women and breastfeeding and non-breastfeeding postpartum women is more challenging. Some of the factors that complicate those measurements include multiple births, infant deaths, reported and unreported miscarriages and other fetal loss, pregnancies in WIC-participating mothers with a child less than a year old, and variations in definition of breastfeeding.

3 National Research Council. (2003). Estimating Eligibility and Participation for the WIC Program: Final Report. Committee on National Statistics, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

The contractor shall develop the “Required Estimates” described above for each of the following populations:

• Infants

• Children o 1-year-old children o 2-year-old children o 3-year-old children o 4-year-old children

• Pregnant women

• Postpartum women o Breastfeeding women o Non-breastfeeding women

• Total WIC-Eligible Population

Geographies of Interest The contractor shall develop the “Required Estimates” for the “Participant Categories” for the following geographies as has been done in previous years:

• FNA regions,

• each of the 50 States,

• the District of Columbia,

• and five U.S. territories: the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, the United States Virgin Islands, Guam, American Samoa, and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands.

The set of State-level (including territories) estimates, when summed, must align with national estimates.

For the CY2023 report, the contractor provided, for the first time, county-level eligibility count estimates in an Excel file. As described under Optional Task 8, the contractor shall develop county-level and Congressional District-level estimates of eligibility counts, participation counts, eligibility rates, coverage rates, and participation rates for 2024 and 20254 using the appropriate WIC PC data and 5-year ACS file using a methodology consistent with the national- and State-level methodologies. These estimates should be submitted as an Excel workbook with a separate tab for each State agency, and do not need to be included in the full report.

Other Participant Characteristics of Interest The contractor shall also retain and update the following subgroup analyses as completed in recent reports (with updates specified below):

• Race/ethnicity

• Income o Updated for 2024/2025: Prior reports in this series have disaggregated eligibility by income level at the national level only. To inform WIC funding allocations to State agencies, the contractor shall prepare a table in the report that will display State agency-level counts of the eligible population by participant category (at a minimum: women, infants, and children) disaggregated into two income subgroups: (1) household income less than or equal to 185 percent of the Federal Poverty Guidelines, and (2) adjunctively-eligible for WIC and household income greater than 185 percent of Federal Poverty Guidelines.

• Urbanicity

4 2025 estimates shall be produced if the WIC PC 2026 characteristics data are available in time.

o Updated for 2024/2025: WIC PC 2024 data now include WIC participant home ZIP code for most State agencies. The contractor will produce the required estimates for rural vs. urban areas using home ZIP codes from the WIC PC 2024 data.

• WIC non-participation among SNAP and Medicaid participants

Indian Tribal Organization (ITO) Estimates Additionally, as described under Optional Task 7, the contractor shall build on the work under the prior contract to develop a methodology for ITO-level estimates. The contractor shall develop, as a separate task/CLIN, a final method to estimate WIC eligibility and coverage for ITOs. FNA will provide information collected from another study as well as a previously proposed methodology to inform this work as described in the task description below.

2024/2025 Report and Brief 2024 Report The contractor shall deliver a 2024/2025 report, suitable for publication, which will list all data sources, describe methodologies and assumptions, present and discuss findings, and discuss limitations. This report, detailed in Task 3 (Main Report) below, shall include tables and full color maps for each year reported, and tables, full color maps, and other graphics to assist in understanding changes over time at the State level for each of the eight participant subgroups. The report will include separate estimates for 2024 and 2025. The contractor’s level of detail in the estimates produced and in the discussion of these estimates shall meet or exceed the level of detail and discussion in the current series of WIC eligibility reports. Along with the 2024/2025 report, the contractor shall deliver Excel spreadsheets, not intended for publication, containing the estimates provided in the report.

New for the 2024/2025 report, the contractor shall produce a brief stand-alone executive summary that will highlight the key findings for a broader audience. The remainder of the current report would remain in its existing structure as the “Technical Report.”

In addition to the 2024/2025 report, the contractor shall publish an abbreviated 2024 report to allow FNA to make publicly available the 2024 national-level estimates in a timely manner. This abbreviated report will not include an executive summary.

Data Inputs Finally, if the necessary data are, or will be, available during the timeframe of this project, then the contractor shall update all of the various adjustment factors needed by the estimation methodology using the most recent data as they come available during this contract.

4. Government Furnished Items

FNA shall provide FNA administrative data and past contract deliverables as needed to support this effort. The contractor is responsible for securing data from non-FNA sources. The contractor shall assume that FNA needs 10 business days to fulfill any data requests.

5. Period of Performance

The period of performance shall be 18 months from the date of award. This is 6 months longer than the period of performance for prior contracts in this series to account for additional time that may be needed to develop ITO estimates and solicit feedback from ITOs.

6. Requirements Common to All Tasks

General operating constraints across all tasks under this contract include:

• The Contractor must maintain regular and open communication with FNA as part of project management and shall consult with FNA on all major aspects of the study.

• Each deliverable submitted to FNA should be in near-final form. Drafts shall not be submitted for FNA review without implementation of the Contractor’s quality control plan as described in the Contractor’s proposal. Deliverables that have not undergone editing for clarity, format, spelling, and grammar, are missing required sections, or do not adhere to the FNA-accepted study plan may be rejected without further review.

• All deliverables and materials produced by the Contractor shall demonstrate substantial expertise in the operation and administration of WIC, including program legislative and regulatory requirements, guidance, research, and program data.

• Final products for public dissemination provided by the Contractor shall be compliant with Section 508 of the Rehabilitation Act of 1973 (29 U.S.C. 794d) as amended by the Workforce Investment Act of 1998 (P.L.

105-220). Before acceptance, the Contractor will provide a completed USDA 508 Acceptance Checklist5 for each public-facing document.

• All contact with WIC participants, FNA Regional Offices, State agencies, and any other program representatives or stakeholders must be approved by FNA prior to the attempted contact.

• The contractor shall submit all files (e.g., data, report, web, and other files) to FNA, and FNA shall retain all rights to all files produced under this contract.

• The final products (e.g., the final report and final online graphics) shall not be formally accepted as complete until cleared by USDA and published on FNA's website or other publication location(s) as agreed upon with FNA.

7. Tasks

Contractors shall allow three weeks (i.e., 15 business days) for FNA to comment on all interim deliverables, except for the revised analysis plan and all versions of the report, which require at least five weeks of review by

FNA.

The contractor may propose more or fewer interim deliverables for all tasks, as appropriate to meet the project objectives.

5 Available online at https://www.usda.gov/about-usda/general-information/staff-offices/office-chief-information-officer/guidelines-and-compliance-resources/section-508-accessibility-and-compliance/section-508-checklists.

https://www.usda.gov/about-usda/general-information/staff-offices/office-chief-information-officer/guidelines-and-compliance-resources/section-508-accessibility-and-compliance/section-508-checklists https://www.usda.gov/about-usda/general-information/staff-offices/office-chief-information-officer/guidelines-and-compliance-resources/section-508-accessibility-and-compliance/section-508-checklists

Task 1: Project Management

The contractor shall propose deliverables and milestones to ensure proper and efficient project management.

The contractor shall undertake all activities necessary to manage a project of this scope. This task includes, but is not limited to, orientation meetings, routine and non-routine meetings with the FNA Contracting Officer’s Representative (COR) to discuss issues of importance to the project, and monthly progress reports.

Orientation Meeting Within two weeks after contract award, the contractor shall provide a draft agenda to FNA and work with FNA to schedule the orientation meeting. The purpose of this meeting is to refine expectations for the project, discuss and address potential challenges and concerns, and review the schedule of deliverables. Examples of specific topics to be addressed at this meeting shall include, but not be limited to:

• mutual understanding of project objectives and priorities;

• overview of the methodology, data collection activities and data sources;

• contract schedule, including milestones, dates for submission of deliverables, and required timeframes for clearance activities (data collection and reports);

• formats for reporting data collection and general project progress;

• protocols for all communications between the COR, National Office and regional FNA staff;

• confirmation of staffing; and

• potential challenges and possible strategies to successfully address them.

Within one week after the orientation meeting, the contractor shall submit to FNA the draft Summary Memorandum documenting the discussion. It shall summarize the meeting, including an elaboration of project objectives, decisions reached, and identification of any outstanding issues and strategies for resolving them. The final meeting summary shall incorporate FNA’s comments and be provided to FNA within one week of receiving FNA feedback.

Ongoing Communication Ongoing communication is necessary to ensure successful completion of this service component, and should be both verbal (e.g., regularly scheduled conference calls) and written (e.g., monthly progress reports). The contractor will propose a schedule for biweekly telephone communications to update Federal staff on progress and issues. Key contractor staff, subcontractor staff, and/or consultants will participate as needed to address progress and issues for discussion. The schedule for these discussions may be changed as agreed upon by the COR. The contractor will submit a proposed agenda for each call at least one (1) working day in advance of the scheduled date to the COR for comment. If there are materials that Federal staff will need to review prior to the call date, such materials will be submitted at least three (3) business days in advance of the call date. The contractor will submit a summary of telephone discussions to the COR for review and approval no later than three (3) working days after each regular telephone conference call.

Monthly Progress Reports By the fifteenth of every month, unless the COR and contractor agree upon an alternate date, the contractor shall submit progress reports covering work accomplished during each month of contract performance to the COR. The progress reports shall be brief and factual and shall be prepared in accordance with the following format:

1. Section I: An introduction covering the purpose and scope of the contract effort. This shall be limited to one paragraph in all but the first and final month’s report.

2. Section II: A description of overall progress plus a separate description of each task or other logical segment of work on which effort was expended during the reporting period. The description shall include pertinent data and/or graphs in sufficient detail to explain any significant results achieved.

3. Section III: A description of current technical or substantive performance, and any problems which may impede performance along with proposed corrective action.

4. Section IV: A planning schedule shall be included with the first progress report for all tasks required under the contract, along with the estimated starting and completion dates for each task. The planning schedule shall be updated and submitted with each subsequent technical progress report and shall include explanation of any difference between actual and planned progress, why the differences have occurred, and what corrective steps are planned if behind in progress.

Deliverable 1.1 Orientation Meeting Agenda Deliverable 1.2 Orientation Meeting Summary Memorandum Deliverable 1.3 Monthly Progress Reports

Task 2: Analysis Plan

The contractor shall provide a write-up of the proposed methodology to FNA for review and comment. The contractor shall consult with independent experts in developing its methodology. The contractor shall emphasize the new methodologies under this contract (e.g., county/Congressional-district level estimates and ITO estimates) when considering expertise. The independent experts proposed by contractors will be taken into account when evaluating the technical strength of contractors’ proposals. The write-up shall address the objectives of the project as described above. It shall describe the data sources to be used, the proposed analytic methodology and assumptions, and all data and methodological limitations. The analysis plan shall also include tables shells and figures for any newly proposed tables and figures, as needed. After FNA review of the proposed analysis plan, the contractor shall submit a revised version of the analysis plan, and after an additional round of comments from FNA, the contractor shall submit a final version of the plan.

The contractor shall describe in the analysis plan how they will use participant ZIP codes from the appropriate WIC PC data year to produce the urban/rural coverage rates in place of using WIC local agency location as has been done in the past. The contractor shall also describe in the analysis plan how they will use participant ZIP codes to produce county-level and Congressional-District-level estimates as described under Optional Task 8 of this PWS. FNA shall provide the contractor with relevant or summarized WIC PC 2024 data and data documentation. FNA shall provide the WIC PC 2026 data if available in time. Participant ZIP code was provided by 66 of 88 State agencies for WIC PC 2024, and approximately 90% of those participants have an available ZIP code. Participant ZIP code was provided for the first time in WIC PC 2024; the WIC PC 2024 report is not yet publicly available, but the WIC PC 2022 report can be found online.6

Deliverable 2.1 Draft Analysis Plan Deliverable 2.2 Revised Analysis Plan Deliverable 2.3 Final Analysis Plan

Task 3: Main Report

The contractor shall prepare draft, revised, and final versions of the 2024/2025 report that detail the steps in the estimation process, describe the data sources, and present findings. The stand-alone executive summary of

6 Available online at https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/wic/participant-program-characteristics-2022 https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/wic/participant-program-characteristics-2022 findings is new for this year and will be a streamlined version of the 2024/2025 report, and focused on key findings for a broad, non-technical audience. In addition, there will be a brief, approximately 5-page national-level 2024 report that the contractor shall develop as soon as possible so that FNA can make publicly available the 2024 national-level estimates as soon as possible. At a minimum, the 2024/2025 final report shall include the level of detail, tables, and graphics found in the most recent National and State Level Estimates of WIC Eligibility and Program Reach in 2023 report, incorporating revisions from FNA to streamline the report,7 which explicitly includes the following:

1. a stand-alone executive summary of findings, and

2. a stand-alone full technical report that includes, at a minimum:

a. an introductory statement of objectives;

b. a discussion of methodology, assumptions, and data sources used;

c. a presentation and discussion of results;

d. a discussion of methodological and data limitations;

e. a set of tables and full color U.S. maps displaying State and FNA region estimates for each year;

f. tables, full color maps, charts, and other graphics to assist in understanding changes over time at the national, FNA regional and State levels;

g. references; and

h. relevant appendices.

The contractor shall submit both the full technical report and executive summary as both a Word document and a PDF file. All graphics in the report must be editable.

Deliverable 3.1 Draft brief CY2024 Report (5-pages or less) Deliverable 3.2 Revised brief CY2024 Report (5-pages or less) Deliverable 3.3 Final brief CY2024 Report (5-pages or less) Deliverable 3.4 Draft 2024/2025 Report Outline Deliverable 3.5 Final 2024/2025 Report Outline Deliverable 3.6 Draft 2024/2025 Report Deliverable 3.7 Revised 2024/2025 Report Deliverable 3.8 Final 2024/2025 Report

Task 4: Data and Code

The contractor shall provide to FNA all datasets and code used to produce tables and figures for Task 3 (Main Report) in a format agreeable to FNA that includes the raw data files and data analytic files used to produce all results that appear in each draft and final report. In addition, the contractor shall provide Excel spreadsheets with all of the data in the tables and graphs presented in the report. The data files shall not include any information which would compromise participant privacy including names, addresses or other personal identifiers. With each version of the main report, the contractor shall submit all data files that were used to create the drafts including the first draft, revised draft, final draft, and the published final report. This deliverable shall include the SAS and/or R code and results for the new county-level analysis described above.

The data files should demonstrate contractor’s ability to reproduce prior year’s results. Additionally, the contractor shall review prior code and make improvements to ensure clarity for future users. Even though this contract will be producing estimates for two years, FNA generally produces estimates for one year at a time, so the code should be easily usable to produce estimates for only one year. These files shall be provided for use with SAS, R, or other suitable analytic software selected by FNA. In addition, the contractor shall provide full documentation for these data files including:

• information on how to obtain all raw files (source of all raw files, raw file version dates, etc.);

7 Available online at https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/wic/eer-2022 https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/wic/eer-2022

• file structure (data set name, record format, number of records);

• code book (record layout including variable name, variable format, variable labels, value labels, and missing values);

• variable definitions;

• imputation procedures (if used);

• editing procedures used;

• structure of composite variables, and

• fully commented SAS/R and all other code to allow full replication of analyses at FNA, other government agencies, and their contractors.

Deliverable 4.1 Preliminary Data Files, Data Documentation, Tabulations, Graphs, Figures, and Maps with Data Cleaning and Analytic Code Deliverable 4.2 Revised Data Files, Data Documentation, Tabulations, Graphs, Figures, and Maps with

Data Cleaning and Analytic Code Deliverable 4.3 Final Data Files, Data Documentation, Tabulations, Graphs, Figures, and Maps with Data

Cleaning and Analytic Code

Task 5: Briefing

The contractor shall conduct a virtual briefing for FNA managers and staff between submission of the revised and final reports. The briefing shall discuss, at a minimum, changes made to the methodology during the most recent estimation year, the analysis, data sources, and final results of the project. The presentation shall include handouts or other visual display materials. These materials shall be prepared in PowerPoint or similar format that is agreeable to FNA. Visual display materials and handouts shall be submitted to FNA for review two weeks prior to the presentations. Any files, including PowerPoint files, submitted at this time should be editable by FNA.

Deliverable 5.1 Draft Briefing Materials Deliverable 5.2 Final Briefing Materials

Task 6: Interactive Online Graphics of Report Results

The contractor shall produce interactive, online graphics of the final report results, with interactive maps, charts, graphics, etc. At a minimum, this work shall include updating and revising the existing WIC eligibility graphics posted on the FNA website.8 The contractor shall work with FNA to ensure that all web deliverables function as intended on the FNA website. The contractor shall propose interim deliverables and deliverable dates as appropriate, with the final website deliverables due no more than two months after delivery of the final draft of the report.

Deliverable 6.1 Draft Online Graphics Update Plan Deliverable 6.2 Final Online Graphics Update Plan Deliverable 6.3 Draft Online Graphics Deliverable 6.4 Final Online Graphics

8 Available online at https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/wic/eer/.

OPTIONAL - Task 7: ITO Estimates

FNA will provide the contractor with the ITO Analysis Plan developed under the 2023 report contact as well as relevant information on the WIC Tribal Organizations and U.S. Territories Study (see Appendix A). If FNA elects to execute Optional Task 7, the contractor shall implement the approach proposed in the prior ITO Analysis Plan or propose acceptable alternatives to develop a final method to estimate WIC eligibility and coverage for ITOs. This methodology will be informed by information provided by FNA from their WIC Tribal Organizations and U.S. Territories Study. The methodology should also include a proposal of how to update ITO estimates annually or bi-annually, if feasible. The contractor shall produce preliminary program reach estimates for ITOs and collect feedback on the estimates from the ITOs. Collecting feedback from ITOs will likely require a generic OMB clearance; FNA will complete any required clearance steps to solicit ITO feedback, so the contractor should not include work on an ICR in their proposal. It will be the contractor’s role to develop methods to collect feedback materials (e.g., survey, discussion guide) and to collect feedback on the estimates from the ITOs, but it will be FNA’s role to write and submit the paperwork to obtain generic OMB clearance. The contractor shall provide FNA with the feedback solicitation materials (e.g., survey, discussion guide) so that FNA can submit them to obtain generic OMB clearance. The contractor may propose additional deliverables beyond those listed below.

Deliverable 7.1 Prepare preliminary reach metrics and receive Tribal Organization feedback Deliverable 7.2 Draft memo describing recommended tailored program reach metrics Deliverable 7.3 Final memo describing recommended tailored program reach metrics

OPTIONAL - Task 8: County and Congressional District-Level Estimates

If FNA elects to execute Optional Task 8, the contractor shall develop county and Congressional District-level eligibility, coverage, and participation rate estimates.

Under the CY2023 contract, the contractor provided FNA with internal county level eligibility count estimates for the first time, which FNA will provide following the award of this contract. The contractor will likely need to use 5-year ACS estimates again for the county level analysis, unless there is the potential to pool fewer years for the Congressional District level estimates.

Participation counts (the numerator) will be obtained from the latest available WIC PC data. The contractor shall use participant ZIP codes from the latest available WIC PC data,9 for the States agencies where it is available, to produce sub-State estimates. For State agencies where participant ZIP code is not available, the contractor shall present eligibility counts and rates, but not coverage or participation rates. FNA shall provide the contractor with relevant or summarized WIC PC data and data documentation. Participant ZIP code was provided for the first time in WIC PC 2024.10 The contractor shall propose a methodology for using participant ZIP code data from the latest available WIC PC data to produce Congressional District-level and county-level participation and coverage rates in the Analysis Plan delivered under Task 2. The contractor will use the agreed upon methodology to produce the estimates.

9 As WIC PC 2026 is ongoing, we do not know whether CY2025 data from WIC PC 2026 will be available in time. If yes, sub-State level estimates should be calculated for CY2025. If not, local level estimates should be calculated for CY2024. Participant ZIP code was provided by 66 of 88 State agencies for WIC PC 2024, and approximately 90% of those participants have an available ZIP code.

10 Participant ZIP code was provided by 66 of 88 State agencies for WIC PC 2024, and approximately 90% of those participants have an available ZIP code. The WIC PC 2024 report is not yet publicly available, but the WIC PC 2022 report can be found online.

Zvavitch, P., Beckerman-Hsu, J., Huret, N., Perez-Zetune, V., Reischmann, P., & Calvin, K., and Thorn, B. (2024). WIC Participant and Program Characteristics 2022. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service. Access online at https://fns-prod.azureedge.us/sites/default/files/resource-files/wic-ppc-2022-report.pdf.

The contractor shall produce Excel tables with the counts and rates. FNA may then produce public-facing and/or internal dashboards or publications using the data or may share the data with WIC State agencies. The Excel tables should include the following: estimates delivered by county and by Congressional district, disaggregated separately by women, infants, and children:

• Number of individuals, regardless of income eligibility

• Number of individuals eligible for WIC

• Number of individuals participating in WIC

• Participation rate

• Eligibility rate

• Coverage rate

Deliverable 8.1 Draft local level Excel tables Deliverable 8.2 Revised local level Excel tables Deliverable 8.3 Final local level Excel tables

8. Schedule of Deliverables

The proposed schedule shall allow FNA at least an equal amount of time to review deliverables as the amount of time the Contractor plans to take to revise them. The contractor shall propose deliverable due dates for those not listed in the table below. Alternative deliverable due dates and formats may be suggested by the Contractor.

All deliverables listed in the below table are the minimum deliverables requested, and there is no restriction from the inclusion of additional deliverables in your proposal.

Deliverable Number

Deliverable Name Format Due Date

1.1 Orientation Meeting Agenda

.docx 2 weeks from award

1.2 Orientation Meeting Summary

Memorandum

.docx 3 weeks from award

1.3 Monthly Progress Reports

.docx On or about 15th of each month

2.1 Draft Analysis Plan .docx

2.2 Revised Analysis Plan .docx

2.3 Final Analysis Plan

3.1 Draft brief CY2024 Report (5-pages or

less) .docx

3.2 Revised brief CY2024 Report (5-pages

or less)

.docx

3.3 Final brief CY2024 Report (5-pages or

less)

.docx, .pdf

3.4 Draft 2024/2025 Report Outline .docx

3.5 Final 2024/2025 Report Outline .docx

3.6 Draft 2024/2025 Report .docx

3.7 Revised 2024/2025 Report .docx

3.8

Final 2024/2025 Report

.docx, .pdf By July 31, 2027 (earlier is also acceptable)

4.1 Draft Data and Analytic Files

.docx, .pdf, .sas, .r With 3.6 Draft Report

4.2 Revised Data and Analytic Files

.docx, .pdf, .sas, .r With 3.7 Revised Report

4.3 Final Data and Analytic Files

.docx, .pdf, .sas, .r With 3.8 Final Report

5.1 Draft Briefing Materials .docx, .pdf, .ppt

5.2

Final Briefing Materials

.docx, .pdf, .ppt After delivery of 3.7 Revised Report, but prior to submission of

3.8 Final

Report.

6.1 Draft Online Graphics Update Plan .docx

6.2 Final Online Graphics Update Plan .docx

6.3 Draft Online Graphics Varied

6.4 Final Online Graphics Varied

7.1 OPTIONAL - Prepare preliminary

reach metrics and receive Tribal Organization feedback

.docx, .pdf

7.2 OPTIONAL - Draft memo describing

recommended tailored program reach metrics

.docx

7.3 OPTIONAL - Final memo describing

recommended tailored program reach metrics

.docx

8.1 OPTIONAL - Draft Local Level Excel

Tables

.xlsx

8.2 OPTIONAL - Revised Local Level

Excel Tables

.xlsx

8.3 OPTIONAL - Final Local Level Excel

Tables

.xlsx

9. Performance Requirement Summary

The Government intends to utilize a Quality Assurance Surveillance Plan (QASP) to monitor the quality of the Contractor’s performance. The oversight provided for in the contract and in the QASP will help to ensure that service levels reach and maintain the required levels throughout the contract term. Further, the QASP provides the COR with a proactive way to avoid unacceptable or deficient performance, and provides verifiable input for the Contractor Performance Assessment Reporting System (CPARS). The QASP may be updated by modification to the contract.

Required Services/Tasks Performance Standards Method of Surveillance

(Quality Assurance) Standard to be Met/ Allowable Deviation

Quality Assurance

Contractor maintains high level of quality assurance such that all work products delivered under this contract are of high-quality.

COR and Contracting Officer monitoring and review of activities and deliverables.

COR makes no more than two written complaints for the period of performance.

Timeliness Contractor meets agreed upon timeframes for project activities and deliverables.

COR and Contracting Officer monitoring and review of activities and deliverables.

No more than one-week delay unless agreed upon, in writing, by COR in advance of the deadline/due date.

Contract Management

Contractor appropriately manages the project, including informing the COR of any challenges or issues in a timely manner and not after the fact.

COR and Contracting Officer monitoring of monthly progress reports, COR participation in regular project communication calls, and other ad hoc communication with the Contractor.

No instances of issues or problems being raised to the COR after the fact or after such time that no remedies are available.

Cost Control

Contractor manages the project budget to avoid cost overruns within task and overall budget, and notifies

COR and Contracting Officer monitoring of monthly progress reports, COR participation in regular project

Contractor shall operate within the budget for each CLIN and have no instances of cost issues the COR in advance of any potential budget concerns.

communication calls, and other ad hoc communication with the Contractor.

without raising to the COR in advance.

Written Products

Contractor provides high-quality written materials.

COR and other federal staff reviews of draft and final products.

Fewer than two rounds of revision with minimal rewriting, editing required.

Product disseminated as planned.

Appendix A:

2023 WIC Eligibility Estimates, Deliverable 6.3 - Planning How to Develop Indian Tribal Organization

(ITO) Level Measures of Program Reach

Note: The following was developed as a deliverable on a prior contract and delivered to FNA on December 23, 2024. Chapter 3 below was updated to include the final interview guide that will be fielded to all 32 Tribal Organization WIC directors under the WIC Tribal Organizations and U.S. Territories Study (OMB Control Number: 0584-0705). FNA is providing this to inform proposals for the work described under Task 7 of this

PWS.

https://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/PRAViewICR?ref_nbr=202603-0584-001

Chapter 1. Introduction

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) provides pregnant and postpartum women, infants, and children through age 4 with critical nutrition benefits and education. Currently, 88 State agencies administer WIC; these agencies include the 50 geographic States, 5 U.S. territories, 32 Indian Tribal Organizations (hereafter, Tribal Organizations)11, and the District of Columbia. There is no one data source that enables programs or policymakers to directly count the number of individuals who are eligible for WIC in the geographic areas served by their State agency. The WIC Eligibility Estimates Report published by USDA’s Food and Nutrition Service (FNS) provides national- and State-level eligibility counts (estimates of the number of individuals eligible for WIC benefits) and coverage rates (the percentage of the eligible population participating in WIC).12 The data in this report guide funding decisions and help State agencies understand how many eligible individuals they are reaching.

Standalone estimates for Tribal Organizations that administer WIC as State agencies have historically not been included in the report because of methodological limitations. These limitations have led to minimal discussion of Tribal Organizations in previous reports. Instead, participants from Tribal Organizations have been included in the estimates for the State and FNS Region where the Tribal Organization is located. As a first step toward including program reach metrics for Tribal Organizations, the 2022 WIC Eligibility Estimates Report provided coverage rates for non-Hispanic, American Indian/Alaska Native individuals and included a new table of WIC Tribal Organization participant counts. The 2022 report also suggested a plan for developing Tribal Organization–level program reach metrics in appendix A.

This draft plan builds on the preliminary outline in appendix A of the 2022 WIC Eligibility Estimates Report and provides new details about how program reach metrics could be identified for Tribal Organizations. The Study Team proposes data collection procedures and describes potential program reach metrics. The plan has been informed by consultations with two technical experts, Dr. Carolyn Liebler and Melinda Newport. It also builds from the contract structure established by FNS. More specifically, The Study Team assumes that a separate project, WIC in the Territories and Indian Tribal Organizations (hereafter WIC in the Territories and Tribes), will be responsible for data collection activities to gather information needed to design a tailored program reach metric. The development of the program reach metrics and consulting with the Tribal Organizations about proposed metrics are not presently included in any contract. The Study Team assumes that the calculation of any program reach metric will occur after the data collection and review by FNS and each Tribal Organization. The program reach metrics may not be integrated into the annual report until the 2026 WIC Eligibility Estimates Report. The plan respects Tribal sovereignty and autonomy both in how the Study Team seeks to gather information and request feedback from Tribal Organizations.

A. Challenges Estimating WIC Eligibility Counts in Tribal Organizations Using Current Methods

Adding measures of WIC eligibility and program reach for Tribal Organizations to the WIC Eligibility Estimates Report would increase information about WIC programs and where individuals are eligible for and served by WIC. Under the existing methods, the analysis faces several methodological challenges. Each Tribal Organization represents a sovereign nation or a consortium of sovereign nations with unique WIC eligibility criteria (as long as those criteria meet minimum federal requirements at 7 CFR Part 246, e.g., related to

11 Throughout this plan, we use the term Tribal Organization based on feedback from our technical advisors and report reviewers. We understand that Tribal Organizations may vary in whether they prefer to be referred to as a Tribal Organization, ITO, State agency, or another term. In interview questions, we guide interviewers to refer to the name of the Tribal Organization rather than a generic term.

12 The report also provides estimates of the population eligible for WIC in the U.S. territories that administer WIC (American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, the Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands, and the U.S. Virgin Islands) but has not yet included coverage rates for these territories.

https://fna-bwbufwdzbabpezgc.z01.azurefd.us/sites/default/files/resource-files/wic-eer-2022-report-appendices.pdf categorical, income, nutritional risk, and residency). The traditional approach to the eligibility estimation procedures relies on geographic boundaries (i.e., State boundaries). Some Tribal Organizations represent multiple Tribes (e.g., Inter-Tribal Council of Nevada); others vary in how they define their geographic reach, especially in counties served by multiple State agencies. Differences in geography are compounded by differences in who is eligible to receive WIC benefits from some Tribal Organizations. While at least one Tribal Organization serves enrolled Tribal members across a geographic State (e.g., Mississippi Band of Choctaw Indians), others are more geographically limited to counties but also serve non-Tribal members (e.g., Osage Nation).

Tribal Organizations also sometimes face limitations on how many individuals they can serve because of available WIC funding. They may establish memoranda of understanding (MOUs) or other informal agreements with other State agencies to determine the proportion of the eligible population in an area they will serve. For these Tribal Organizations, a coverage rate may not be an appropriate indicator of how many more individuals they could serve without additional context about their capacity or service area limits.

Tribal Organization State agencies also have flexibility in setting eligibility criteria beyond geographic limits or Tribal enrollment. Some Tribal Organizations may exercise the alternative method for determining participant income eligibility outlined in 7 CFR 246.13, 14 This regulation enables Indian households to enroll with a signed statement that they are at or below the income threshold rather than a formal documentation of income, given that the Tribal Organization has submitted demographic information establishing that most Indian households in its service area have incomes at or below the threshold, and received FNS approval on approach. Like other State agencies, Tribal Organizations can identify whether participation in other safety net programs establishes automatic or adjunctive income eligibility. Programs like the Food Distribution Program on Indian Reservations (FDPIR) may serve significant numbers of individuals; understanding variation in whether these services confer eligibility is important for estimating the eligible population. Our team has learned that some Tribal Organizations’ residency requirements include either residing within the Tribal Organization’s boundaries or receiving services through Indian Health Services (IHS). the Study Team also need to understand whether there is a reliable data source recording the number of individuals who participate in FDPIR, IHS, or other relevant programs.

The Study Team also faces challenges accessing data that would provide the information needed to calculate a traditional coverage rate. The surveys used to produce the eligibility estimates (i.e., the Annual Social and Economic Supplement of the Current Population Survey and the American Community Survey) include only small numbers of individuals from WIC Tribal Organizations, raising concerns about whether these surveys provide representative or adequate data for Tribal Organizations. Other data sources used to create adjustment factors (e.g., breastfeeding data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, income data from the Survey for Income and Program Participation) also do not have enough respondents from Tribal Organizations to provide data needed for the estimation procedures. Even where coverage rates could be produced, the study team anticipates most rates to have very wide confidence intervals, perhaps ranging from 0 to 100 percent, because of sample size limitations.

B. Recent Updates and Proposed Next Steps

We improved the WIC eligibility estimates for fiscal year 2022 in two ways:

We produced measures of WIC eligibility and program reach for non-Hispanic, American Indian/ Alaska Native individuals and enhanced the discussion of Tribal Organizations in the report. These

13 Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children, 7 CFR §246 (2014).

https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-7/subtitle-B/chapter-II/subchapter-A/part-246#p-246.7(d)(2)(viii) 14 The project team does not know if any Tribal Organizations currently exercise the alternative method for determining participant income eligibility outlined in 7 CFR §246.

https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-7/subtitle-B/chapter-II/subchapter-A/part-246#p-246.7(d)(2)(viii) improvements include national coverage rates for individuals who identify as non-Hispanic, American Indian/Alaska Native and the monthly average number of WIC participants in Tribal Organizations.

We added confidence intervals for coverage rates and other reach metrics in the report tables.

These improvements were made in close consultation with FNS.