Attachment 1_Statement of Need.pdf

This is a Statement of Need document from the 14th Weather Squadron outlining requirements for a seasonal forecasting service. The squadron requires access to leading sub-seasonal and seasonal climate models with specialized statistical analysis capabilities to generate state-of-the-science climate predictions with quantitative confidence levels. The service must provide an intuitive interface enabling analysts to rapidly assess complex data and download files for custom visualization.

The required sub-seasonal models include ECMWF, CFS, GEFS, CMC, and JMA, while seasonal models must encompass ECMWF, CFS, CanSIPS, UKMO, BOM, ECCC, CMCC, DWD, JMA, and Meteo France. All models must be bias-corrected and calibrated to real-world physical limitations, with anomalies calculated using the model's reforecast rather than reanalysis data. The service must provide analysis of six parameters: air temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, surface wind, 500 mb heights, and surface pressure. Statistical analysis capabilities must include anomalies, ranks, calibrated probabilities, trend line climatology, trend analysis, percentiles, quantifiable verification, climate analogs, and run-to-run forecast progression. Additional requirements include a simple, intuitive graphical user interface with images and maps displayed, GeoTIFF files available for download for all parameters across all models, and on-demand access for a minimum of 10 analysts. The statement emphasizes that without this service, the squadron will be unable to advance sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting as a mission essential capability and will continue relying on unverifiable, potentially inaccurate predictions using outdated processes.