Risk_Assessment_BDO_2017_0001.pdf

MP Region Risk Assessment Worksheet unlikely = 1 possible= 2 likely=3 almost certain= 5

Likelihood low= 1 medium=3 high=5

Impact (Likelihood * Impact)=

Rating

5 3 15

3 5 15

1 1 1

3 3 9

5 5 25

5 3 15

2 1 2

5 3 15

3 5 15

3 3 9

5 3 15

3 5 15

2 3 6

3 3 9

3 5 15

5 5 25

3 5 15

5 5 25

3 5 15

3 3 9If additional staff is not secured, then implementation of projects of regionwide importance may be delayed

If stakeholder increased involvement backfires because of inability to reconcile interests, then projects of regionwide importance may be derailed, resulting in litigation If Resource agency staff is not able to participate in projects of regionwide importance due to overcommitment, then projects would be delayed or stopped, and quality may suffer

If Reclamation and SWRCB processes and projects do not align, then Reclamation's processes and projects may be delayed or stopped

If Settlement processes are derailed, then Reclamation is subject to additional SWRCB regulatory requirements further restricting our operations If water users, power customers, environmental interests and resources agencies are unable to work together, then projects of regionwide importance may be derailed, resulting in litigation

Breakdown of communication or trust (internal or with other Federal agencies)

If staff is not able to become certified at a COR II level, then the other staff that are certified will be overburden and more prone to mistakes

If BDO looses staff with institutional knowledge, then projects can be delayed and/or derailed and confidence in our agency may deteriorate

If projects of regional significance are litigated, then: (1) delayed implementation may occur; (2) uncertainty with court ruling will affect our operational and administrative flexibility; (3) potential for additional regulations to be imposed upon Reclamation; and (4) Reclamation resources will be negatively impacted

If we are not able to get through the acquisition phase in a timely manner for projects of regional importance, then projects may be delayed and support for the projects are reduced

If the State does not make policy decisions in time regarding their enviromental compliance, then joint projects may be delayed and additional resources may be needed, creating an ineffective and inefficient process

Reconsultation ‐ need funds and contractor to implement Funding for collaborative science (current BiOp, CWF pre‐construction monitoring, IEP, CSAMP, Salmon and Smelt resiliency strategies and new requirements in reconsultation)

New listing of species (Longfin smelt)

Not willing to take calculated risks (paralysis by analysis)

Risk Statement

Not having adequate science to address management/operational needs Not having the agility (contracting, funds, staff) to take advantage of special events/opportunities (naturally high outflows, algae blumes, mark increase or decrease in species, turbidity pulses,….)

Turn over reducing staff capability

Sufficient staff to perform various reviews and participate in various meetings (CWF adaptive management, EcoRestore, CSAMP,…)

SAMPLE

MP Region Risk Assessment Worksheet

3 5 15

2 5 10

2 5 10

2 5 10

5 3 15

3 3 9

Likelihood Definitions: Impact Definitions:

Unlikely: Not likely to occur under most circumstances

Possible: Might occur at some time

Likely: Expected to occur at some time

Almost Certain: Expected to occur in most circumstances

If Reclamation staff is not able to participate in projects of regionwide importance due to phenomenal workload, then projects would be delayed or the quality may suffer.

If the Biological Opinions, cost allocation, ROD, NOD, permitting, and approval of the joint change of diversion petition for CWF are not completed by the end of 2017, then there is risk that the project will be unable to begin the next phase of final engineering/design, and therefore, construction of the project. As the project becomes further delayed, there is a risk that water contractors will withdraw their participation.

If Reclamation does not have enough resources/funding to participate in CWF adaptive management activities, there is risk of Reclamation being pushed out of the decision process.

If relationships continue to be strained among the PWA's, NMFS, FWS, DFW, DWR, and Reclamation, then there may not be enough support to continue with CWF.

possible=2, high impact=5

High: The potential impact is high if the loss of reliability, integrity, accountability, confidentiality, or availability could be expected to have a severe or catastrophic adverse effect on organizational operations, organizational assets, or individuals; and or, if there is a court order mandate to take specific action. A severe or catastrophic adverse effect could mean that any of these losses could:

•Cause a severe degradation in or loss of mission capability to an extent and duration that the organization is not able to perform one or more of its primary functions;

•Result in major damage to organizational assets, major financial loss, severe loss of stakeholder confidence and trust; or severe or catastrophic harm to individuals involving loss of life or serious life threatening injuries, or national security threat.

likely=3, low impact=1 almost certain=5, low impact=1

If Reclamation and DWR are litigated on CWF's BiOps and/or ROD/NOD, then the project will be further delayed.

If the current cost allocation proposal is accepted by Reclamation, then there is a risk of budget impacts for future CWF O&M costs.

unlikely = 1, high impact=5 unlikely = 1, medium impact=3

Low: The potential impact is low if the loss of reliability, integrity, accountability, confidentiality, or availability could be expected to have a limited adverse effect on organizational operations, organizational assets, or individuals and safety. A limited adverse effect could mean that any of these losses could:

•Cause degradation in mission capability to an extent and duration that the organization is able to perform its primary functions, but the effectiveness of the functions is noticeably reduced;

•Result in minor damage to organizational assets, minor financial loss, or minor physical harm to individuals, minor decrease in employee morale.

Medium: The potential impact is medium if the loss of reliability, integrity, accountability, confidentiality, or availability could be expected to have a serious adverse effect on organizational operations, organizational assets, or individuals. A serious adverse effect could mean that the any of these losses could:

•Cause a significant degradation in mission capability to an extent and duration that the organization is able to perform its primary functions, but the effectiveness of the functions is significantly reduced;

•Result in significant damage to organizational assets, significant financial loss, or significant harm to individuals, but not loss of life or serious life threatening injuries, significant decrease in employee morale, minor decrease in stakeholder confidence and trust in the Mid‐ Pacific Region.

Rating Definitions:

almost certain=5, high impact=5 likely=3, high impact=5 possible=2, medium impact=3 likely=3, medium impact=3 almost certain=5, medium impact=3 unlikely = 1, low impact=1 possible=2, low impact=1

SAMPLE