10-Attachment B Sample Health Plan Projection.xlsx

This file is a five-year health plan projection for a synthetic public-sector employer, designed as a sample illustrative model to support the Hillsborough County Board of County Commissioners' Benefits Consulting and Actuarial Services contract opportunity in Florida. The projection models enrollment growth of approximately 0.5 percent annually from 6,000 to 6,121 employees between 2027 and 2031, with detailed cost forecasts for medical claims, prescription drug claims and rebates, and fixed costs including administration, stop-loss premiums, plan administration personnel, and wellness programs. The total plan costs are projected to increase from $124.95 million in 2027 to $160.08 million in 2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.4 percent. A reserve target equal to 25 percent of total plan costs is maintained throughout the projection period, increasing from $31.24 million to $40.02 million.

The funding model demonstrates how employee contributions (increasing 4 percent annually from $21 million to $24.57 million), retiree contributions (also increasing 4 percent annually from $4.8 million to $5.62 million), and employer funding (increasing from $99.15 million to $129.90 million) collectively support the projected plan costs. Medical claims trend is assumed at 6.0 percent annually, while prescription drug claims trend at 9.0 percent annually with offsetting rebates also trending at 9.0 percent. Fixed cost categories including administration and network access, other fixed charges, and stop-loss premiums are modeled with varying trend assumptions ranging from 3.0 percent to 10.0 percent annually. The model indicates that employer funding will need to increase by approximately $30.75 million over the five-year period to sustain the health plan's projected cost trajectory.