Short-term earthquake forecasting in california: prospective evaluation of a decade of csep modelsproject period: 1 1 2024 thru 12 31 2024PLAIN language description: the collaboratory for the study of…

Ended Project Grant Awarded Last action

Award ID
G24AP00059
Recipient
Awarding agency
Obligated
$99,092

Award facts

Assistance listing
15.807 Earthquake Hazards Program Assistance
Completion date
Place of performance
Great Britain, United Kingdom

Award details come from USAspending.gov.

Description

As the agency reported it.

Activities
The first activity is an evaluation of the forecasting skills of the 24 short-term probabilistic forecast models in california between 2007 and 2018. The recipient will (1) test for significant differences between model forecasts and the observed rates, spatial and magnitude distributions and (2) compare the models against each other using several scoring metrics. The second activity is to ensure the legacy of this multi-decadal effort by turning IT into an international community benchmark. The recipient will curate forecasts, data, code and results in open-access reproducibility packages for anyone to critique, RE-use and build on. The third major activity is to benchmark the spatio-temporal operational forecast model for california developed by the USGS, which currently provides on-demand forecasting in california and is the first model to self -consistently combine long-term fault rupture behavior with short-term earthquake clustering. The model is not currently under prospective testing, so we will use existing retrospective simulations to perform comparisons, assess model calibration and identify potential discrepancies.deliverables and outcomes: the first major activity will generate a suite of model evaluations, which provide thebasis for insights into the performance of the many models under testing. In particular, the recipient aims to extract lessons for operational models, for example whether clustering models perform well under a range of seismicity patterns, including mainshocks with and without foreshocks, a range of aftershock behavior, swarms and quiet periods. The second activity comprises a major deliverable, namely a community benchmark to be hosted online including data, forecasts and a documented workflow for replicating evaluations. The third activity will generate a retrospective evaluation of the spatio-temporal forecast model for california.intended beneficiary(IES): beneficiaries include those that develop and evaluate earthquake occurrence models, especially short-term operational forecast model developers and their end-users. This includes the USGS and other governmental agencies around the world with a mandate for short-term real-time earthquake forecasting. In addition, users of short-term seismic hazard information will benefit from an independent assessment of predictive skills.

Quick answers

Who received award G24AP00059?

G24AP00059 was awarded to University Of Bristol by Office of Acquisitions and Grants (US Geological Survey) on January 1, 2024.

How much is award G24AP00059 worth?

$99,092 has been obligated on G24AP00059.

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