Career: feedbacks and tipping dynamics in earth system models with interactive ICE sheets

The National Science Foundation Division of Polar Programs awarded the University of California Irvine $797,727 on September 1, 2026, under the Polar Programs assistance listing (CFDA 47.078) to develop an advanced Earth system model that couples interactive Antarctic ice sheets with global ocean dynamics.

The recipient will create a new version of the Community Earth System Model incorporating a dynamic representation of the Antarctic ice sheet—the first such implementation—to enable transformative research on coupled ice-ocean feedbacks. The project will simulate how polar ice sheets and Southern Ocean current systems respond to environmental change and identify triggers of tipping points in Antarctic and Southern Ocean dynamics. Researchers will assess multiple methods for simulating ocean cavities beneath floating ice shelves using simplified dynamics, benchmarked against a single high-resolution simulation that directly resolves sub-shelf currents.

The award supports workforce development through training of PhD students and interdisciplinary undergraduate research cohorts from Earth system science, engineering, and applied mathematics and physics departments. Data products and research results will be integrated into new teaching materials for Earth system science courses across all levels, evaluated through surveys, and shared with external instructors via centralized education platforms.

Performance is based in Irvine, California. The period of performance runs from September 1, 2026, through August 31, 2031.

Abstract

Global ocean currents and polar ICE sheets are subject to variability and change, and can interact with each other in surprising ways. For example, increased melt from antarctica?S floating ICE shelves would freshen and therefore slow southern ocean currents, affecting heat transport towards the ICE and hence its melt rate. Historically modelled separately, this project will develop an advanced earth system model that will include all major components (atmosphere, biosphere, ocean, and cryosphere), enabling transformative studies of global ICE-ocean interactions. Simulations will be used to study how the polar ICE sheets, ocean current systems, and other aspects of the earth system respond to the changing environment and investigate presence and triggers of tipping points of antarctic and southern ocean change. This project will prepare the U.S. Stem workforce for a data science and computational future through training of PHD students and interdisciplinary cohorts of undergraduate researchers from earth system science, engineering, and applied math/physics departments. The new data products and research results produced by the students will be integrated into new teaching materials for earth system science courses of all levels, which will be evaluated using surveys to quantify their effectiveness and shared with external instructors through centralized education platforms. This project aims to develop a new version of the community earth system model that will be the first to include a dynamic representation of the antarctic ICE sheet and will therefore be uniquely suited for research on coupled ICE-ocean feedbacks. This project will assess several methods of simulating the ocean cavities under floating ICE shelves using simplified dynamics. A single high-resolution simulation that directly resolves the currents under ICE shelves will be run to benchmark the coarser simulations. The team will quantify the response of the fully-coupled system to radiative forcing using a series of ramp-up and down simulations. By artificially turning off ICE-ocean coupling the team will test their central hypothesis - coupled ICE-ocean feedbacks act to amplify the forcing response of the ICE sheets and ocean circulation. Paid undergraduate research assistants will use the output from these simulations to quantify the impacts of these feedbacks on temperature patterns and global sea levels and to develop reduced-form models of the emergent ICE-ocean dynamics. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.- subawards are planned for this award.