GCR: predicting flood-related health threats in at-risk U.S. Communities

The National Science Foundation's Office of Integrative Activities awarded The Washington University a $1.2M project grant (CFDA 47.083: Integrative Activities) effective September 1, 2025 through August 31, 2030 to develop predictive models and tools for identifying flood-related health threats in at-risk U.S. communities. The research team will create a comprehensive, neighborhood-level dataset integrating flood frequency data, environmental pathogen analysis, resident interviews, and gastrointestinal infection rates. Through geospatial analysis and advanced Bayesian modeling, the project will produce an open-access, interactive risk map enabling communities to understand flood vulnerabilities and evaluate mitigation strategies. Deliverables include peer-reviewed research outputs, publicly accessible analytical tools, and training workshops to enhance capacity for predicting and managing flood-related health hazards across the nation.

The project employs a convergent, multidisciplinary research approach integrating expertise from anthropology, hydrology, microbiology, environmental engineering, and data science. Sub-awardees include Baylor University, which will oversee immune biomarker analysis (CRP, IgG, IgE) from dried blood spot samples collected during two data collection phases, and the University of Colorado Colorado Springs, which will contribute to the research framework. The project prioritizes community-based collaboration and citizen science initiatives, positioning the resulting risk assessment models and tools as resources for residents and decision-makers to identify and reduce flood-related health dangers in low-resource communities disproportionately affected by inadequate stormwater infrastructure.

Abstract

Flooding poses major threats to communities across the united states, especially in areas with older or inadequate stormwater systems. These floods can damage homes, contaminate drinking water, cause sewage overflows, and expose people to harmful health threats. To help address these dangers, this project will collect detailed, neighborhood-level data for building new understanding about how repeated floods affect human well-being. By combining community input with data on flooding, environmental microbes, and health outcomes, the research team will develop new ways of predicting which areas face the highest risks. The findings will be used to help residents and decision-makers identify and reduce flood-related health dangers in their communities. The project will also broaden use of the new methods and tools by providing training to help other researchers conduct related work. This research integrates expertise from anthropology, hydrology, microbiology, environmental engineering, and data science. The research team will create a comprehensive dataset linking flood frequency, pathogen presence in water and soil, resident lived experiences, and gastrointestinal infection rates in communities. Using these data, they will conduct geospatial analyses to examine links between flooding, pathogen levels, and infection risk. The research team will then apply advanced bayesian models to the dataset to predict how flooding influences infection risk over time and across different locations. These models will support an open-access, interactive risk map that helps communities understand their vulnerabilities and evaluate strategies to mitigate flood impacts. The project will also develop training workshops, citizen science initiatives, and publicly accessible tools to enhance capacity to predict and manage flood-related health hazards across the nation. By promoting collaborative, community-based research, this work aims to deepen our understanding and improve responses to flooding. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.- subawards are planned for this award.