Collaborative research: bocp-implementation: US-south africa: surviving a super greenhouse: terrestrial biodiversity dynamics during the cretaceous thermal maximum

The National Science Foundation's Division of Environmental Biology (Biological Sciences program, CFDA 47.074) awarded $300,663 to the Denver Museum of Nature and Science for a five-year collaborative research project spanning July 1, 2025, through June 30, 2030. This US-South Africa partnership investigates terrestrial biodiversity dynamics during the Cretaceous Thermal Maximum (approximately 95 million years ago) to provide real-world paleoclimate data relevant to predicting ecological impacts of contemporary global warming. The project will deliver freely accessible databases documenting temperature and precipitation records, species diets, migration patterns, plant community compositions, and landscape changes from the Cretaceous period.

The award supports the creation of a sustainable network of laboratories that will utilize these databases to calculate extinction and recovery rates while identifying ecosystem resilience factors. Key deliverables include quantitative analyses of environmental change duration, magnitude, and rate; identification of factors affecting species survival and habitat shifts; and a postgraduate research exchange program designed to develop the next generation of scientists with interdisciplinary expertise in addressing climate-related challenges. The project emphasizes broader impacts through expanded Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) opportunities for youth and establishes collaborative research infrastructure integrating earth and life sciences to advance understanding of ecosystem responses to rapid global environmental change.

Abstract

Accurately predicting the ecological effects of a warming planet is essential for lessening ongoing economic and societal harm. However, the potential impact of global temperature rise predicted for earth by the end of the 21ST century cannot be studied on the scale of human history alone. Fortunately, essential real-world data on the outcome of rapid and extreme warming is preserved in our planet?S deep-time rock record. Approximately 95 million years ago, earth transitioned through an interval of global change known as the cretaceous thermal maximum (KTM) with profound repercussions. Global temperature increase during the KTM matches predictions for earth's near term, making the event a critical case study for our planet?S imminent future. Research demonstrates that during the KTM, 80% of marine life went extinct due to increased ocean temperatures and oxygen starvation. However, scientists do not yet understand the impact of warming on land. Our team of earth and life scientists will address fundamental questions about the KTM, producing results directly relevant to society's health and economic well-being. The project will generate freely accessible databases of temperature and precipitation records, species diets, migration and range patterns, plant community compositions, and landscape changes. A sustainable network of labs will use these databases to calculate the duration, rate, and magnitude of extinction and recovery and identify factors affecting ecosystem resilience, such as shifting habitats and destabilizing food webs. A cross-disciplinary postgraduate research exchange program will arm the next generation of scientists with the broad skill sets necessary to tackle some of humanity's forthcoming grand challenges. Finally, the project will increase stem opportunities for youth via CO-created teacher resources and a public science project that empowers secondary school students to contribute directly to scientific research. Approximately 95 million years ago, ecosystems transitioned through an understudied hyperthermal event, the cretaceous thermal maximum (KTM), driven by increasing atmospheric CO2. Global temperature rise during the KTM was triple projections for earth by the end of the 21ST century?making the event a critical case study for predicting tipping points of functional ecosystem decline (economic risk) in as-of-yet unrealized planetary states. Previous studies have documented KTM's marine impacts, including global ocean deoxygenation and cascading extinctions; however, scientists currently lack essential data on terrestrial outcomes. This project will formulate comprehensive, open-access databases that enable cross-disciplinary study of the KTM aftermath. Research will focus on mongolia's gobi basin and north america?S western interior basin, which together preserve the world's richest records of cretaceous terrestrial life. Data generated will include floral and faunal biodiversity and spatiotemporal records, as well as biofunctional traits such as niche guild, migration and range potential, habitat requirements derived from geochemical analyses, temperature and precipitation proxies, constrained by radioisotopic ages determined using C-isotope chemostratigraphy, eggshell and pedogenic carbonate, and zircon. By integrating across earth-life systems, the project will tackle a series of hierarchical objectives, including establishing a refined chronology of ecosystem change, calculating the rate and duration of destabilization and recovery, assessing trends and drivers of habitat evolution, and exploring the impact of extreme warming on ecosystem resilience, functional biodiversity, and species threat. Beyond propelling comparative research on ancient hyperthermals, the collaboration will enable a cross-disciplinary postgraduate research exchange program to arm the next generation of scientists with the multifaceted skill sets necessary to tackle grand challenges. Finally, broader engagement objectives will increase scientific literacy and inspire youth to pursue stem careers via a public science program that enables secondary school students to discover new biodiversity records, contributing directly to data collection and through CO-created teacher resources. This project is funded by the BIO/DEB biodiversity of a changing planet (BOCP) program, the division of earth sciences (ear) and the GEO/ear life and environments through time (let) program. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.- subawards are not planned for this award.