Assessing historical flash drought indicator performance across the united states (1 of 2) the proposed project has two main components that together will promote a deeper understanding of how…

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration awarded a $300,011 cooperative agreement to the University of Wisconsin - Madison on July 1, 2026, under the Climate and Atmospheric Research program (CFDA 11.431) to assess historical flash drought indicator performance across the United States.

The project has two primary components. The first evaluates how different statistical methods accounting for climate non-stationarity influence the perceived occurrence and severity of flash drought events characterized by rapid intensification. The work uses the Flash Drought Intensity Index method and drought indicators from observation-informed model reanalysis datasets to capture multivariate flash drought characteristics. The recipient will construct a baseline flash drought climatology using standard statistical methods across the full period of record, then apply shorter reference periods and de-trending methods to explore how alternative methodologies affect flash drought occurrence and severity. Analyses will span different seasons, regions, and indicators to provide detailed information for project partners. The second component engages the drought monitoring community to ensure study transparency and development of usable monitoring tools, with particular focus on determining criteria for maintaining stakeholder trust in established drought indicators while incorporating new scientific understanding to better reflect flash drought and climate non-stationarity.

The award supports collaboration with partners from state, regional, and federal agencies focused on applied climate services. Performance occurs in Madison, Wisconsin, with a period of performance from July 1, 2026, through June 30, 2028.

Assessing historical flash drought indicator performance across the united states (1 of 2) the proposed project has two main components that together will promote a deeper understanding of how accounting for climate non-stationarity influences the perceived occurrence and severity of flash drought across the U.S. And how this information could be tailored to ensure its effective use by project partners when making management decisions. We will engage with partners from several state, regional, and federal agencies focusing on applied climate services. The first research component focuses on assessing how the use of different statistical methods to account for non-stationarity influences the occurrence and severity of flash drought events characterized by rapid intensification. The flash drought intensity index (fdii) method and drought indicators calculated from observation-informed model reanalysis datasets will be used to capture the multivariate characteristics of flash drought. We will first construct a baseline flash drought climatology using standard statistical methods and data from the full period of record and then use shorter reference periods and a DE-trending method to explore the impact of alternative methods on the occurrence and severity of flash droughts. Our analyses will be performed for different seasons, regions, and indicators to provide more detailed information for our project partners. The second research component focuses on engaging the drought monitoring community to ensure study transparency and the development of usable monitoring tools. A key aspect of this research is to determine the criteria for maintaining stakeholder trust in established drought indicators while incorporating new scientific understanding into those indicators to better reflect flash drought and climate non-stationarity. Interactions with the project advisory committee will help ensure that our efforts to account for climate non-stationarity will lead to useful tools when making management decisions. The project team will collect relevant input using a variety of engagement techniques, including surveys, interactive webinars, interviews, and demonstrations in which stakeholders can give feedback to the project team. This input loop will be open in nature and the team will collect feedback throughout the project. The proposed research is highly relevant to this competition because IT will lead to the development of new flash drought monitoring and assessment tools that account for long-term trends in climate conditions. IT will also provide new insight into the impact of including non-stationarity in drought indices when assessing historical risks for flash drought in different parts of the U.S. This proposal directly addresses three of the priority action items and six of the research questions listed in the information sheet. This project also supports noaas goal to develop a climate-ready nation by enhancing our knowledge of drought-related risks and by working closely with our project partners to provide information to help inform their decisions. Development of actionable information and the strengthening of partnerships will advance flash drought adaptation, resilience, and mitigation efforts.