Contextualizing drought severity benchmarked to multiple time periods drought is typically assessed relative to a historical reference period, but multidecadal variability and nonstationarity…

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration awarded Trustees of Indiana University a Cooperative Agreement worth $499,998 on July 1, 2026, under the Climate and Atmospheric Research program (CFDA 11.431) to develop drought severity benchmarking products that contextualize drought conditions across multiple reference periods.

Indiana University will create weekly drought map products spanning 2000 to 2025 using three distinct benchmarks: a historical benchmark highlighting conditions relative to multidecadal climate patterns, a recent benchmark reflecting drought relative to recent experience, and a future benchmark contextualizing drought against near-term climate projections. The work addresses a core limitation in the United States Drought Monitor, which currently converges datasets with varying reference periods into a single framework that undermines interpretation during periods of multidecadal variability and nonstationarity. By providing drought metrics tailored to different time intervals, the products will enable water and drought management decision-makers to adapt their strategies across historical emergency response evaluation, recent management performance assessment, and emerging long-term management requirements.

The period of performance runs from July 1, 2026 through June 30, 2028, with performance taking place in Bloomington, Indiana.

Contextualizing drought severity benchmarked to multiple time periods drought is typically assessed relative to a historical reference period, but multidecadal variability and nonstationarity complicate this approach and challenge the interpretation and management of drought severity. Recent work by the PIS demonstrated how emergent nonstationarity influences drought classification in the united states drought monitor (usdm). Central to the problem is the choice of the reference period and how IT shapes the classification of drought severity during periods of multidecadal variability and nonstationarity. The usdm currently uses a framework that converges datasets with varying reference periods into a single tool, undermining its interpretation during such periods. As such, there is a need for drought metrics based on clear, flexible, and tailored reference periods that address the evolving nature of drought using different benchmark periods. Our proposed work is motivated by the need to provide contextualized drought assessment using multiple benchmarks. Benchmarking droughts to a longterm historical baseline helps evaluate historical emergency management practices. Benchmarking against a recent baseline helps evaluate against recent drought management efforts. Benchmarking to a projected future baseline highlights emerging changes required for water and drought management. Collectively, benchmarking droughts to different time intervals empowers decision makers to adapt their drought management decisions, which is difficult using metrics based on a single reference period. We will create a weekly drought map product from 2000 to 2025 using three benchmarks: historical benchmark, highlighting conditions relative to the multidecadal past; recent benchmark, reflecting drought relative to recent experience, and future benchmark, contextualizing drought against the near-term future. We have two objectives: 1. Develop three distinct benchmarks to contextualize drought drought will be measured using variables such as precipitation, runoff, and soil moisture from multiple datasets. 2. Evaluate temporal and spatial drought sensitivity to benchmarks drought severity will be evaluated across benchmarks and how classifications vary in management-relevant regions. Both objectives will engage multiple regional stakeholders to solicit feedback, ensuring the product aligns with practical decision-making needs and provides actionable insights. Our collaboration with stakeholders from various regions and sectors ensures actionable insights and wide dissemination of our contextualized drought assessment. By providing codes and methods, we will enable real-world applications that help communities adapt to evolving drought conditions, thus enhancing preparedness, mitigation, and resilience in sectors like agriculture and water resources. Our project directly addresses challenges identified in the NOAA/nidis technical memorandum on drought assessment, which states drought metrics and models are very sensitive to the reference period chosen to assess current conditions. More broadly, our project aligns with the mission of the nidis in helping the nation adopt a proactive approach to understand and manage drought risks and impacts and the overarching goals of the nidis to [] better understand length and severity [] of drought and collect, integrate, and communicate information on [] drought to inform timely drought assessments.