PI: freeman lead institution: university of colorado title: analysis, prediction, and projection of ocean physics and biogeochemistry to inform national marine sanctuary planning along the US west…

This Cooperative Agreement award from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) under the Climate and Atmospheric Research program (CFDA 11.431) will provide the University of Colorado with $443,869 to analyze, predict, and project ocean physics and biogeochemistry to inform national marine sanctuary planning along the U.S. West Coast. The key products and services to be delivered include:

• Leveraging historical coastal observations and high-resolution ocean reanalyses to identify dominant bio-physical processes driving variability at West Coast national marine sanctuaries
• Conducting retrospective seasonal-to-multi-annual forecasts of relevant bio-physical properties to assess predictive skill and understand drivers of this skill
• Developing long-term projections out to 2100 of changes at the West Coast national marine sanctuary sites using climate model simulations and regional downscaling
• Compiling disparate observations from 5 West Coast national marine sanctuaries into a gridded, publicly-available dataset to support future climate impact studies

The project will run from January 1, 2025 to December 31, 2027 and leverages the University of Colorado's extensive expertise in climate research, ocean sciences, and federal collaborations to advance NOAA's climate science and adaptation priorities.

PI: freeman lead institution: university of colorado title: analysis, prediction, and projection of ocean physics and biogeochemistry to inform national marine sanctuary planning along the US west coast summary of the review: the objectives of this proposal are to provide west coast sanctuaries with a better understanding of and the ability to predict BIO-physical linkages to climate forcing through in-depth regional analyses, multi-year forecasting, and century-scale projections of the most relevant climate indicators found throughout the sanctuary water column (e.g., upwelling, PH, temperature, oxygen). The proposed approach combines historical coastal observations (with particular emphasis on those collected in-sanctuary) and high-resolution ocean reanalyses to explore and identify the dominant BIO-physical processes driving historic variability at west coast sanctuaries. The proposal would also utilize model forecasts at two different time scales: (1) a suite of retrospective seasonal-to-multiannual forecasts of relevant BIO-physical properties will undergo a predictive skill assessment as well as examine the sources of skill, and (2) long-term projections (out to 2100) of changes at the west coast NMS sites using large ensembles of climate model simulations paired with downscaled regional simulations. Strengths the modeling component of this proposal is strong. The two prediction experiment ensembles proposed for use, one of which is from a NOAA lab, have shown predictive skill in the region. Identifying the processes responsible for predictive skill not only improves understanding of climate projections, but can inform targeted observations in the future. The project leverages observations from 5 west coast nmss, many of which are not publicly available. Compiling these disparate observations into one place is valuable, and making them readily available in the same units, as a gridded product, etc., will aid other climate impact studies. The emphasis on subsurface properties in models and observations is important because they are less studied. Including a case study of the sanctuary-response to the recent combined strong 2015-2016 EL nino and 2014-2016 marine heatwave could serve as a natural experiment of conditions expected under climate change. Analyses focus on impacts at the sanctuary scale of the 5 west coast nmss (rather than looking at broader regions) and will facilitate comparisons between the nmss. Alexander, jacox, and capontondi are leaders in this field and the results from prior research are all very relevant to this project. Weaknesses though the proposed work seems important in general, the greatest weakness of the proposal was the lack of coordination with the nmss; specifically, IT is unclear whether the proposed work addresses an identified or assumed NMS need and how NMS decision-making would change based on the results of the project. For instance, there is no justification (i.e. references of publications or NMS reports) for the utility of the 9-12MO timescale of forecasts for NMS decisions. Also, the spatial scale of the high resolution model size relative to the size of the targeted nmss is not provided. The proposal could be strengthened by more meetings with NMS staff or other stakeholders, especially early in the project period. No technology transfer is planned, nor is any outreach. In the timeline, NMS may be engaged in year 3 to explore ways the results can be used but no mechanism is described in the narrative. Virtual communication with west coast sanctuaries on a quarterly basis is mentioned but not detailed. However, there are letters of support from 2 of 5 partner NMS that indicate buy-in. The PI team could consider adding a CO-PI or collaborator from one of the sanctuaries. A few other weaknesses are related to the methods, budget, and team management. The PIS state that the proposal addresses priority a (linkages between physical and biological parameters), but there is no explicit