Title: developing decadal climate projection services through stakeholder guidance and foundational science climate change is already impacting communities throughout the U.S., and the consequences of…

Title: developing decadal climate projection services through stakeholder guidance and foundational science climate change is already impacting communities throughout the U.S., and the consequences of these impacts will only become more significant in future decades. Mid-to-long-range (20 years and beyond) outlook information on coastal inundation, extreme heat, flooding, drought, and many other climate events aids infrastructure and resource planning and helps anticipate the effects of climate change. The demand for this information is very clear and increasing across a wide variety of governmental and private entities but is currently met through a hodgepodge of individual researcher-stakeholder relationships or gleaned from online graphics which are not appropriately tailored to specific needs. The proposed work will develop the scientific understanding to underpin authoritative climate projection services. The team will conduct the research necessary to support reliable and scientifically robust climate projection services, ensuring that our approaches are state-of-the art, thoroughly and transparently documented, and developed in collaboration with stakeholders. The project is coordinated across five phenomenological themes: western water resources, heat waves, coastal flood risk, wildfire risk, and extreme wind events. The planned stakeholder engagement strategy seeks to work a parallel NOAA funded project to CO-develop the research to support customized, expert-analysis informed climate services. Foundational climate projection research is a crucial component of the proposed project and is focused on three areas: understanding and constraining uncertainty, identifying the large-scale drivers of projected changes, and developing hyper-local projections information. The team will leverage multi-model large ensemble climate projections and coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP) 5 and 6 archives and will employ cutting-edge techniques such as explainable artificial intelligence. Broader impacts: the project will provide best practices and methodologies for developing decision-ready climate projection information that can be applied by a wide range of stakeholders beyond those directly involved in this effort. Datasets and analysis procedures will be made readily available for any expert-analysis informed climate services effort. Stakeholder communities that normally do not have access expert climate analysis will be engaged, and the project team will contribute to educating the next generation of climate projection translators. Project updates and results will be communicated to a broad audience via a website, blogs, and interaction with noaas climate.GOV. Competition relevance: the project builds both science and structure in line with noaas climate projection efforts. Data from gfdls spear model, as available, and other large ensemble and projection datasets will be employed. The project focuses on high-priority climate risk areas, specifically extreme heat, water resources, wildfire, extreme wind events, and coastal inundation. Scientific methodologies and lessons learned from stakeholder community interactions will be widely disseminated for application to other areas. The project will leverage existing NOAA regional information structures, will support noaas mission of science, service, and stewardship in support of developing climate projection services to enable communities to better anticipate future high-impact climate events, and is clearly aligned with the challenge areas delineated in noaas building a climate ready nation.