Abstract: development of the arctic MOM6-cobalt configuration for noaas climate, ecosystems, and fisheries initiative: a holistic and equitable approach towards prediction and projection of arctic…

Abstract: development of the arctic MOM6-cobalt configuration for noaas climate, ecosystems, and fisheries initiative: a holistic and equitable approach towards prediction and projection of arctic ocean ecosystem change (competition 4, priority B) the arctic is the fastest changing environment in the world. Impacts, such as marine heatwaves, sea ICE loss, harmful algal blooms, and ocean acidification cumulate to unprecedented challenges. Northward shift of commercially important living marine resources and disappearing sea ICE may open up new commercial fishing opportunities, which would add more pressure on arctic ecosystems. These changes also place greater burdens on food security for alaskas indigenous peoples. Because current arctic monitoring programs cannot adequately support response strategies, the international central arctic ocean fisheries agreement'' and national arctic fishery management plan'' prevent commercial fishing operations in the high seas portion of the central arctic ocean and locally, within the U.S. Exclusive economic zone, as long as there is not enough knowledge about the ecosystems to reliably and sustainably manage commercial fisheries there. As part of the climate, ecosystems, and fisheries initiative, NOAA is tasked to develop robust regional ocean modeling systems to produce skillful hindcasts, forecasts, and projections to inform early warnings, socio-ecological projections, risk assessments and climate informed advice for fisheries management and community adaptation strategies. Since time immemorial, inuit people have been successfully monitoring and implementing adaptation and conservation strategies to respond to changing environmental conditions. Our scientific investigations can benefit indigenous communities and indigenous knowledge can valuably inform our modeling efforts. The value and need for equitable inclusion of indigenous knowledge and perspectives in the monitoring as well as decisionmaking surrounding arctic change is apparent. This value and need is officially recognized at the federal level. While there are an increasing set of examples to meaningfully relate indigenous and western knowledge systems about drivers and impacts of ecosystem change, this uniquely CO-produced approach should and can be taken in the development and use of numerical ocean ecosystem models improving scientific models and informing equitable resource management decisions in the arctic. This project will, in partnership with the national marine fisheries service, oceanic and atmospheric research and indigenous communities develop a holistic and equitable ocean modeling and prediction system to robustly meet the myriad marine resource challenges facing the arctic. Significantly, IT will also lay the foundation to weave together indigenous knowledge and perspectives in science, conservation, and decision making in arctic fisheries management. Our approach addresses the primary need to work collaboratively with climate change affected communities and weave indigenous knowledge with science by CO-developing and CO-applying the arctic MOM6-cobalt model configuration. Our main objectives are to collectively use scientific data, indigenous knowledge, and community based observations to develop and evaluate a skillful hindcast simulation, and analyze historic extreme events relevant to future commercial fisheries and the way of life of iupiaq communities. To support other CO-produced initiatives, we will develop and evaluate a framework to equitably include underserved communities and bridge different knowledge systems in model development and application.