The shelfbreak front in the northwest atlantic is an important feature demarcating the boundary between continental shelf and slope water masses

This region is among the most rapidly warming in the world oceans which has led to substantial impacts on the shelf and slope ecosystem. Despite the importance ecologically, there have not been studies regarding the predictability of the cross-shelf motions of the shelfbreak front on seasonal to inter-annual time periods to date. We propose to investigate seasonal and inter-annual motions of the foot of the shelfbreak front using hydrographic data from two programs, the ecosystem monitoring program from the northeast fisheries science center and the shelf research fleet from the commercial fisheries research foundation and the woods hole oceanographic institution. The initial goal will be to develop a front index based on integrated onshore/offshore distance of the foot of the front from a reference position at the 100 m isobath. The time series for this index will then be used to examine simple models using upstream velocity, warm core ring proximity, and wind forcing to investigate skill in seasonal and inter-annual forecasts. This work will follow a similar methodology to previous work by the authors forecasting the gulf stream position. The proposed work features two early career scientists. There will be significant effort in communications and outreach with both northeast fisheries science center scientists as well as fishers in the commercial fishing industry. Quantifying and forecasting the variability in the position of the foot of the shelfbreak front will lead to a better understanding of several environmental stresses to the shelf ecosystems as movement of the front is linked to fluctuations in bottom temperature anomalies, restriction in the spatial extent of the cold pool, and onshore limits in predator habitat. This proposed work is timely as IT addresses issues relating the recent mortality event of scallops in the region to fluctuations in multiple stressors related to the cross-shelf position of the shelfbreak front.