Accurate and robust sea level forecasts can help residents of coastal regions, and decision-makers, manage risks associated with coastal flooding (including changes in event frequency, severity,…

The Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) awarded a $207,189 Cooperative Agreement to the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), which manages the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), under the Climate and Atmospheric Research program (CFDA 11.431). The project aims to analyze state-of-the-art global ocean model simulations to quantify improvements in forecasting coastal sea level variability over seasonal to annual timescales. This work will help enhance the accuracy and reliability of coastal flood risk forecasts, which is critical for decision-makers and residents in vulnerable coastal regions. The project leverages UCAR/NCAR's extensive expertise and facilities in Earth system science to deliver this technical solution from Sep 1, 2023 through Aug 31, 2026.

Accurate and robust sea level forecasts can help residents of coastal regions, and decision-makers, manage risks associated with coastal flooding (including changes in event frequency, severity, and/or duration). To improve seasonal to annual (S2A) forecasts, IT is vital to assess the ability of underlying tools, including dynamical ocean models, to capture the processes governing coastal sea level variability over S2A lead times. Observations from satellites and tide gauges reveal a rich spectrum of small-scale sea level variability, both forced by the atmosphere and "intrinsic", in the coastal ocean. Yet its relevance to S2A forecasts, and its predictability, is relatively poorly characterized, in part due to a lack of appropriate modeling tools. This project will analyze emerging state-of-the-art global ocean model simulations from two modeling centers to quantify resolution-related improvements in the ability to forecast forced and intrinsic coastal sea L