Accurate and robust sea level forecasts can help residents of coastal regions, and decision-makers, manage risks associated with coastal flooding (including changes in event frequency, severity,…

Accurate and robust sea level forecasts can help residents of coastal regions, and decision-makers, manage risks associated with coastal flooding (including changes in event frequency, severity, and/or duration). To improve seasonal to annual (S2A) forecasts, IT is vital to assess the ability of underlying tools, including dynamical ocean models, to capture the processes governing coastal sea level variability over S2A lead times. Observations from satellites and tide gauges reveal a rich spectrum of small-scale sea level variability, both forced by the atmosphere and "intrinsic", in the coastal ocean. Yet its relevance to S2A forecasts, and its predictability, is relatively poorly characterized, in part due to a lack of appropriate modeling tools. This project will analyze emerging state-of-the-art global ocean model simulations from two modeling centers to quantify resolution-related improvements in the ability to forecast forced and intrinsic coastal sea LE