Fishes that reproduce via fish spawning aggregations (FSAS) are among the most vulnerable to threats from overfishing and climate change

The Louisiana State University will model changes in the distribution, phenology, and metapopulation structure of fish spawning aggregations for Nassau grouper and cubera snapper in three National Marine Sanctuaries under various climate change scenarios. Funded by the $171,930 cooperative agreement from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under the Climate and Atmospheric Research program, LSU will use three CMIP6 climate models to assess oceanic conditions and habitat suitability for the species. Artificial structures and larval dispersal dynamics will also be evaluated. Project results will inform sanctuary management and stakeholders through September 2025.

Marine reserves are one of the most effective ways of protecting FSAS, but IT is unknown if current reserves will support FSAS in the future. The PIS propose to model changes in the distribution, phenology, and metapopulation structure of FSAS under climate change scenarios for nassau grouper and cubera snapper in the regions of three national marine sanctuaries: gray's reef, florida keys, and flower garden banks. The PIS will use three CMIP6 climate models to assess oceanic changes at sanctuaries under two climate scenarios. Oceanic conditions from these models will then be used to determine the suitability of spawning habitat via the non-parametric probabilistic ecological niche model. The use of artificial structures and source-sink dynamics of larval dispersal will also be evaluated. An advisory panel of stakeholders at multiple NOAA PR