Improving forecasting and mitigation for glacier lake outburst floods in alaskaproject dates: 6 1 2025 through 6 30 2028AWARD purpose: glacier outburst floods are a common hazard in glaciated…

The University of Alaska Southeast received a $498,865 Cooperative Agreement awarded June 1, 2025, through June 30, 2028, under the National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers (NRCASC) program (CFDA 15.820), administered by the U.S. Geological Survey. This award funds a three-year research initiative focused on improving forecasting and mitigation capabilities for Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in Alaska, with particular emphasis on Suicide Basin at Mendenhall Glacier in Juneau. The recipient will deliver four primary products: (1) enhanced operational flood forecasting data and glacier dynamics models quantifying potential GLOF magnitudes; (2) a public-facing dashboard enabling Mendenhall Valley residents to visualize flood risks to their properties; (3) ecosystem-level impact assessments of outburst floods on downstream aquatic habitats; and (4) a statewide map and dashboard communicating emergent GLOF hazards across Alaska communities.

The project addresses an escalating climate adaptation challenge, as GLOFs from Suicide Basin have increased in frequency, with the 2023 and 2024 events representing the largest floods ever recorded on the Mendenhall River and causing widespread damage to over 300 homes in the valley. By developing integrated monitoring, forecasting, and modeling technologies, this research will enhance preparedness for Alaskan communities while advancing scientific understanding of year-to-year GLOF variability and future evolution under changing climate conditions.

Activities

1. Collect data that will improve operational capabilities for flood forecasting at mendenhall glacier and employ a suite of glacier dynamics models to quantify the potential magnitude of future glofs from suicide basin 2. Develop a public dashboard to disseminate data that allows mendenhall valley residents to easily visualize and identify flood risks to their property associated with the glacier outburst flood from suicide basin 3. Collect data to quantify the ecosystem-level impacts of outburst floods, including on downstream aquatic habitats 4. Develop a statewide map and dashboard that communicates data on emergent glacier outburst flood hazards that may impact alaskan communities in the futuredeliverables and expected outcomes: project outcomes include the development of new monitoring, forecasting, and modeling techniques for glofs. The techniques developed will be portable to other areas within alaska that are at risk from outburst flood hazards, and collaboration with the state of alaska division of geological and geophysical surveys will ensure this information is disseminated across the state. The recipient will also publish a scientific paper detailing findings.intended beneficiary(IES): all project products and findings will be directly shared with project stakeholders including: the city and borough of juneau, the national weather service (NWS), the U.S. Geological survey, juneau flood solution advocates (a local citizens group), and juneau residents who are threatened by the annual outburst floods from suicide basin. Project outputs will directly support the development of strategies and solutions for forecasting and mitigating outburst flood hazards in juneau and across alaska. Models of future flood magnitudes will be employed in the design of mitigation structures within the mendenhall valley and by identifying and publicizing likely locations for future outburst floods, the recipient will provide actionable information to inform mitigation and adaptation efforts related to outburst flood hazards in alaskan communities that are located downstream from rapidly changing glaciers and icefields.

Subrecipient activities

The university of alaska SE will subaward to the alaska division of geological and geophysical surveys (dggs) to execute certain research objectives of this project.