Revenue Forecasting

The Arizona Department of Transportation (ADOT) is seeking a qualified consulting firm to develop sophisticated revenue forecasting models for the Arizona Highway User Revenue Fund (HURF) and the Maricopa County Transportation Excise Tax under the Arizona Procurement Code. The primary objective is to create comprehensive, risk-based predictive models that can generate revenue forecasts spanning twenty-five fiscal years across multiple revenue categories. The contractor will be responsible for developing complex multi-equation models that require annual re-specification and re-estimation, along with facilitating a comprehensive Risk Analysis Process (RAP) meeting. Specific deliverables include detailed revenue projection models for the Regional Area Road Fund (RARF) and the Public Transportation Fund (PTF), with the capability to accommodate additional economic and financial research projects. The procurement opportunity was posted on November 5, 2025, with proposals due by December 3, 2025, indicating a relatively short response window of approximately four weeks for interested consultants to prepare and submit their detailed proposals.

While specific set-aside designations were not explicitly detailed in the contract opportunity description, the procurement appears to be open to qualified consulting firms with demonstrated expertise in revenue forecasting, economic modeling, and transportation finance. The contract seems to require advanced technical capabilities, including sophisticated statistical modeling techniques, risk analysis methodologies, and the ability to produce long-term revenue projections across complex transportation funding mechanisms. Potential respondents should possess significant experience in econometric modeling, transportation finance, and public sector financial forecasting. Although no specific budget range was provided, the complexity of the project suggests a substantial consulting engagement requiring advanced analytical capabilities and deep understanding of transportation revenue streams. The procurement is specifically focused on Maricopa County (FIPS Code 04013) and will support critical financial planning for Arizona's transportation infrastructure funding mechanisms.