Willamette Systems Alternatives Analysis and Simulation Tool Development and Application to Inform Implementation and Adaptive Management Plans

This proposed agreement proposes three key aspects to support timely implementation of the WS EIS and AM Plan: 1. Development of simulation tools that are then transferred to managing agencies for ongoing implementation, 2. Demonstrated application of simulations to inform management direction under uncertainty 3. Incorporation of the best available data as it comes available to update the simulation modeling, leading to a more informed management decision. This will require a combination of salmon life cycle modeling, refinement and application of downstream passage modeling using the Fish Benefit Workbook developed by the Corps, and ongoing monitoring and analysis to inform these models.

The proposed work includes completing analysis of effects of the preferred alternative on Upper Willamette River Spring Chinook and winter steelhead, supporting completion of the final EIS. Work proposed also includes description of an adaptive management framework wherein objectives, performance, uncertainty, risk, and value of information are explicitly quantified. This allows resource managers to 1) update testable hypotheses efficiently, 2) make use of limited data or disparate data types, 3) reduce analytical timelines, and 4) when presented with logistic or funding obstacles, can identify which monitoring data should be prioritized and collected thus remaining efficient with taxpayer dollars. The proposed work further includes refining the Corps Fish Benefit Workbook (FBW), recently converted to R, to address structural limitations identified in previous scientific reviews, and completion of FBW models delivered for future application by USACE and other parties. Similarly, proposed work includes development and delivery of lifecycle models for future application by USACE and other parties, with capabilities similar to those applied in the 2022 WS EIS.

Analysis will occur once Biological Opinions from NMFS and USFWS are received and associated recommended changes (expected in summer 2024). Analysis during summer 2024 will be supported by contracts which expire in September 2024, however analysis will continue into fall 2024 and potentially winter 2025. Once final and a record of decision is signed, implementation and adaptive management begins during the remainder of 2025 and future years.