Research Report on Chinese Strategic Deception

The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (hereafter the Commission) invites submission of proposals from contractors capable of providing a one-time report investigating the significance of influence operations, perception management, and intentional strategic misdirection on the part of PRC state entities within the context of Chinese foreign and security policy. The study should also examine the institutional actors and methods by which such operations are implemented.



Key issues and questions to be addressed by the report are:



Examine the extent to which the Chinese government employs strategic-level deception in the course of its relations with the U.S. government. Address the Chinese motivations for such deceptive behavior, and address the major policy areas which would be most affected by such strategic deception.

Address the question of whether or not U.S. perceptions of active Chinese deception efforts could in some cases reflect an incomplete understanding of Chinese policy-making in certain areas. If this were to be the case, identify the gaps in U.S. understanding of the opaque Chinese decision-making process which need to be addressed.

Examine and explicate whether or not there are identifiable strains within historical Chinese political and strategic culture, or within the political culture of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which would incline Chinese decision-makers to consciously mislead U.S. leaders regarding the nature and intent of Chinese policies, and/or future Chinese courses of action.

Determine whether or not there might exist identifiable historical case studies involving significant U.S. decisions in the military, foreign policy, or national security decision-making realms, in which U.S. officials have been affected by intentional Chinese deception. If so, one or more of these case studies should be examined and explicated.

Determine whether or not there is sufficient evidence to suggest that PRC officials may have conscious intent to mislead U.S. business and political leaders regarding the ultimate intent behind purchases of dual-use technology, and/or investment in U.S. high-tech firms.

If identifiable deception operations exist, describe whether they appear to be piecemeal efforts by individual government entities, or whether they appear to be centrally coordinated. If centrally coordinated, identify the leading institution(s) involved in these efforts, and describe the specific means, methods and institutional actors by which the PRC government implements efforts at strategic deception.

Address efforts by PRC state entities to influence the perceptions and opinions of those who help to shape public policy in the government, business, academic, media, and think tank communities of the United States. Explicate perception management efforts which have been made by PRC entities, and the means by which this been accomplished particularly, the specific methods and institutional actors which the PRC government employed in these influence operations. In such cases, examine whether or not the decisions of targeted individuals and/or institutions may have been significantly affected, and whether this might have distorted U.S. understanding of China or otherwise affected U.S. policy-making.

Determine whether there might be any adjustments to U.S. government policy which would be recommended in order to counter PRC strategic deception and influence operations.

Include, as an appendix, a summary literature review of prior relevant studies and academic articles published within the last ten years on the topics of PRC strategic deception and influence operations.



A full description of the request for proposal may be found on the Commission's website at: www.uscc.gov