Limited sources award justification to asca for probabilistic risk analysis support

This justification provides the rationale for limiting competition to one source for the acquisition of Launch Vehicle Mission Reliability Probabilistic Risk Analysis Support. This contract will require a five-year period of performance. In accordance with FAR 8.405-3(d)(2), the base period for this BPA will be one year and there will be four one-year options. The five-year period of performance is required to perform the necessary analysis for the Mars 2020 nuclear mission to be launched in July 2020. Under the proposed procurement action, Advanced Systems Concepts Associates, Inc. (ASCA) will provide the probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) and specific expertise necessary to develop and quantify accident sequence scenarios and probabilities to support risk analysis for space missions. The U.S. Government, on any space mission that carries significant amounts of nuclear material, must produce an environmental impact assessment in accordance with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) and a nuclear launch risk assessment in accordance with the Presidential Directive/National Security Council Memorandum 25 (PD/NSC-25) nuclear launch approval process. ASCA developed a proprietary analytical methodology framework and data set that was applied to the Cassini Mission EIS and SAR databook probabilistic assessment analyses. ASCA utilizes a proprietary process involving the creation of Event Sequence Diagrams (ESD) populated with launch vehicles' accident failure scenarios and outcomes. Once branch point probabilities are added to the ESDs, it allows ASCA to develop an independent method of determining the probability of launch vehicle failure accidents occurring in relation to mission elapsed time and the overall reliability of the launch vehicle. Another unique capability ASCA provides is their database of all launches of all launch vehicles worldwide. This database allows ASCA and NASA to examine all types of launch vehicle failures for all U.S. and international launches in an effort to validate branch point probabilities and launch vehicle accident probabilities. These two unique capabilities provided by ASCA are essential to the NEPA and PD/NSC-25 launch approval processes.