Geoeconomic Modeling for National Security

The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) has issued a Request for Information (RFI) seeking detailed insights into geoeconomic modeling for national security applications. The Special Notice focuses on understanding the current landscape of economic modeling techniques, including structured econometric, semi-structured, and agent-based models. DARPA aims to explore the capabilities, limitations, and challenges of existing approaches to predicting economic activity and outcomes. The RFI covers three primary areas of interest: the current state of geoeconomic models, the availability and quality of data used in these models, and best practices for integrating data analysis into the modeling process. This research initiative is designed to enhance the understanding and predictive capabilities of economic systems in the context of national security.

Contractors are invited to submit responses to the RFI by December 18, 2024, with specific formatting requirements including a maximum 7-page response using 12-point font and 1-inch margins. The technical submission should include a cover sheet, a detailed technical description, and a bibliography, focusing on model types, scalability, performance metrics, data sources, and integration capabilities. DARPA is particularly interested in models that can predict the effects of economic sanctions, detect changes in global financial systems, identify economic tipping points that may lead to conflict, and track production and trade flows. While there is no specific set-aside for this opportunity, the RFI is open to potential respondents who can provide innovative insights into geoeconomic modeling. DARPA may potentially convene an invitation-only follow-up workshop to explore developing a composable system of geoeconomic models based on the received submissions, presenting an additional opportunity for advanced research and collaboration.