Application of the four-part compartment models for the estimation of rates and trends in diabetes incidence and detection in the U. S. adult population.

This is a notice of intent to sole source. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) 2920 Brandywine Road, Atlanta, GA 30341 intends to sole source, in accordance with FAR Part 13.106-1(b)(1) for conducting new analyses of rates and trends of diabetes incidence and detection in the U.S. population, using specialized compartment models. The specialized compartment models are particular types of models with a unique structure created to address the complexity of chronic disease incidence as a function of prevalence and mortality in those with and without the disease. The CDC intent is to sole source the following requirement to Institute for Biometry and Epidemiology, German Diabetes Center, Auf'm Hennekamp 65, Duesseldorf, Germany 40225.

The North American Industry Classification System code is 541611. The specialized mathematical compartment models will permit 1) calculation of incidence when data on prevalence and mortality is available; and 2) incidence, including the rate of development of undiagnosed diabetes incidence, when adequate prevalence and mortality data is available. The work from this project will permit the U.S. National Diabetes Surveillance System (NDSS) to have the first-ever assessments of, or total diabetes incidence and trends in diabetes detection, along with variation according to demographic subgroups of the population. This will provide a more clear assessment of the current status and trends of the national diabetes epidemic and be used to guide future policies related to screening, detection, and prevention. These analyses will be used to develop publications for peer-reviewed reports and will be incorporated into the ongoing U.S. NDSS to serve as a baseline for future monitoring.

Specific objectives of this work are to:

1. Assess the rate of incidence and detection of diabetes in the Jackson Heart Study to validate the four-part compartment models for diabetes incidence estimation
in the U.S. population.
2. Assess the rate and trends in incidence and detection in the U.S. population using the four-part compartment models and NHANES prevalence and mortality data.
3. Assess the rate of incidence of chronic kidney disease in the U.S. population using the four- part compartment models and NHANES prevalence and mortality data

This notice of intent is not a request for competitive quotes. No solicitation document is available and telephone requests will not be accepted. However, any firm that believes it can meet the requirements may give written notification to the Contract Specialist on or before 3:00 pm EST on June 18, 2016. Supporting evidence must be furnished in sufficient detail, to demonstrate the ability to comply with the above requirements. All vendors/prospective contractors must be registered in the System for Award Management (SAM) prior to an award of a federal contract. All questions must be in writing and must be emailed to Tim Barnes at krz3@cdc.gov. Please reference CDC-2016-Q-65241 on all correspondence.

Responses received will be considered for future procurements. A determination by the Government not to compete the proposed procurement is solely within the discretion of the Government. If no responses are received, the CDC will proceed to sole source this requirement to Institute for Biometry and Epidemiology, German Diabetes Center.

The anticipated period of performance is from September 29, 2016 to September 28, 2017.