Industry Day Presentation -STORM.pptx

SecAF / Studies & Analysis

SAF/SAW

Mr. Mark Stankiewicz SAF/SAW Technical Director Ms. Lori. Rush COR - STORM Support 1570 AF Pentagon, Washington, DC 20330-1570 lori.rush@us.af.mil – 571-256-2032 - DSN 260-2032

Synthetic Theater Operations Research Model (STORM) Campaign Analytic Support Contract Industry Week 9 January 2023

Innovate, Accelerate, Thrive

As of: 17 Nov 2022

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Overview Contractor Notice & Rules of Engagement (ROE) SAF/SA Organization Overview STORM Overview STORM Support Activity Overview Campaign Analytic Support Software Development and Maintenance STORM User Support Vendor Expectations

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Contractor Notice No part of this briefing should be construed as direction or authority to proceed or obligate any cost to the Government.

All Government employees have an affirmative legal duty under Federal law to protect business trade secrets and proprietary information.

If during the activities of the Industry Day you have a question or comment that could involve the discussion of your company’s confidential/proprietary business or technical data, please wait until your individual break-out session to discuss.

All information discussed, both provided to and received by the Government, during the open sessions of the Industry Day will be considered public and fully releasable.

Similarly, any comments regarding the improvement of the draft solicitation, either during open or break-out sessions, may be incorporated into the official solicitation when released.

To further aid the Government in safeguarding your company’s information, please notify the Government personnel within your break-out session when any confidential/proprietary information is discussed to prevent any inadvertent releases.

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Rules of Engagement Asking Questions:

Questions should pertain to Performance Work Statement (PWS) clarifications Questions not pertaining to the PWS and supporting documentation may not be answered

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Innovate, Accelerate, Thrive Secretary of the Air Force Studies and Analysis (SAF/SA) Our Vision:

We are the Airmen and Guardians… military, civilian and contractor… who provide objective insights through modeling, simulation, and analyses to inform senior leader decisions that deliver decision advantage to commanders, and who build the Department of the Air Force Analytic Community (DAFAC) that sustains that advantage

Our Mission:

To Shed Light… Modeling, Simulation, and Analytic Excellence at the Speed of Relevance

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Our Priorities & Desired End States:

1. Build/Sustain Our Foundation: Taking care of SAF/SA people and resources Recruit, develop, and maintain our talent while effectively managing our resources; making SA a place to thrive

2. Support the Secretary and Chiefs Informed, smart, unbiased, defendable decisions through timely, credible and innovative analyses

3. Support our key HAF partners (AF/A8, AF/A5/7, CSRO and Others) Informed Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution (PPBE) choices through timely, credible, and innovative analyses

4. Lead the DAF Analytic and Modeling & Simulation Communities Innovative DAF Military and Civilian Airmen with the required technical capabilities supporting analytics DoD wide

5. Synchronize Modeling, Simulation, & Analytic actions across the DAF Coordinated DAF Analytic Community supporting Senior Leaders Secretary of the Air Force / SA: Studies & Analysis

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SAF/SA Organization

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SAF/SA

Director

Principal Deputy Director

National Guard Assistant

Director of Staff

Technical Director

Chief Modeling and Simulation Officer

Military Deputy Director

SAF/SAA

Analyst Community Development

SAF/SAO

Directorate Support

SAF/SAE

Executive Services

SAF/SAF

Force Capability Analysis

SAF/SAW

Future Warfare Analysis

SAF/SAR

Resource Analysis & Innovation

SAF/SAI

Analysis Integration

SAF/SAAA

Analytic Community & Governance

SAF/SAAD

Analyst Force Development

SAF/SAAX

Assessments

SAF/SAAM

Modeling and Simulation

SAF/SAFX

Multi-Domain Analysis

SAF/SAFM

Mission Analysis

SAF/SAWP

Force Projection Analysis

SAF/SAWC

Joint Campaign Analysis

SAF/SARI

Cost and Readiness

SAF/SARP

Manpower

Who is SAF/SAW Why:

Ensure the future Air Force, Space Force, & Joint Force, can be relied on to project power and achieve national defense strategy objectives.

How:

Investigate & learn about 21st Century high-intensity theater-level warfare, to communicate relevant & rigorous analytic insights to DAF & DoD decision-makers on future force capabilities & capacity, risks and vulnerabilities.

Understand these potential conflicts better than our adversaries.

What:

Analyze theater-level warfare & preparation for war Develop scenarios & model data Develop Modeling and Simulation (M&S) tools (contracted & in-house)

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SAF/SAW Organizational Structure Campaign Analysis Division (SAWC) Joint Campaign Analysis Integrating Air, Space, & Cyber Domains Analyze Combat Force Structures and Future Force Design Provide Space Campaign Analysis for the DAF Build Warfare Scenarios and Data Sets Develop Future Global Force Apportionments

Force Projection Analyses Division (SAWP) Analyze Force Projection Capability and Capacity Develop Logistically Feasible Force Flows Examine Munitions/Platforms Tradeoffs Perform Base Assessments Analyze Mobility Force Structures Model Combat Logistics and Generating Combat Power Under Attack

As of 10 Jan 2022

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STORM Overview Synthetic Theater Operations Research Model (STORM) is a multi-sided, stochastic, constructive, simulation tool for air, space, ground, and maritime planning and execution The software is developed for the office of Sectary of the Air Force (SecAF) to provide insight into a wide range of potential campaign outcomes It is designed to help policymakers evaluate military strategy and capabilities, force structure, and operation effectiveness in a joint warfighting context STORM is widely adopted by the campaign analytic community and has over 100+ domestic and international users across all services

STORM Support Activity Overview SAF/SA is responsible for managing STORM software and support activities STORM Program Manager, Mr. Thomas Timmerman (SAF/SAW) STORM Model Manager, Mr. Kyung Park (SAF/SAW) STORM support activities include:

Campaign analytic support Software development and maintenance STORM user support including:

Annual Global Users of STORM (GUSt) Meeting STORM Configuration Control Board STORM Trainings STORM Help Desk (including international user support)

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Campaign – A series of related military operations aimed at accomplishing a strategic or operational objective within a given time and space (JP-1.02, 15 August 2012) Campaign Analysis – The disciplined study of military campaign activities for improved understanding of impacted policy, acquisition and / or operational issues.

A methodology providing senior leadership quantitative insights on policy, operations and acquisition issues Conveys results in terms of comparative high-level outcomes Distinguishes relative contributions of disparate capabilities in an extremely complex environment Gets at high-level “What if?” and “So what?” questions Using STORM as an analytic engine, different types of campaign analytic studies are performed Force structure (platform-based) Operation Plan (OPLAN) / Concepts of Operations (CONOPS) (rules-based) System trades (capabilities-based) STORM Today STORM Campaign Analytic Support

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Database refinement / development timeline:

9-12 months from a new scenario baseline 3-6 months to update CONOPS assumptions and input data from an existing scenario database Joint participation essential to increase collaboration / coordination Coalition of the willing Significant time commitment of analytic partners on coordinating, building, integrating, testing and coordinating / reviewing with Senior Leaders Security classification and access to Special Access Program (SAP) portfolios across the Services

Campaign Analytic Support Scenario Development

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STORM functionality built to leverage existing, credible data sources:

Weapon Effects and Analysis Probability Software (WEAPS) Air-to-Surface Probability of Kill (Pk) data Brawler based Air-to-Air data STORM functionality requiring an “analytic process” to generate data Attrition Calibration (ATCAL) Phase II determines shots fired, munitions expended, targets killed based on data calibrated from Combat Sample Generator (COSAGE) Enhanced Surface-to-Air Missile Simulation (ESAMS) / Radar Directed Gun System Simulation (RADGUNS) surface-to-air data Performance data requiring calibration or derived from mission-level tools (e.g., Air Force Simulation (AFSIM) Suppressor) Intel Community (Joint Country Force Assessment (JCOFA), Technology Estimates) Operator “CONOPS” (use of forces, campaign objectives, etc.) and weapon system concepts; M&S informed wargames, Operator / Subject Matter Expert (SME), etc.

Scripted (rule-based) effects (e.g., cyber operations)

Campaign Analytic Support Generation of Effectiveness/Behavior/Adjudication Data

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STORM software is:

Object-oriented, C++ Structured Query Language (SQL) compliant Data Warehouse results capture Advanced input data capability for power users (e.g., Variable Resolution Data Table (VRDT), Rule Language, Conditional Plan Selection) Reconfigurable internal and external architecture Internal: Encapsulated structure allows for ready replacement of functions / algorithms External: Common Analytic Simulation Architecture (CASA) enhances replacement and integration of external tools Runs on common hardware/operating system: Red Hat Enterprise Linux Graphical User Interface (GUI) driven study management and analysis tools Software Development and Maintenance

STORM captures following theater-level representations:

Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) centric: Perception-based planning and execution Doctrinally-neutral command processes, structures and relationships Networked, non-linear ground combat: Advanced territorial control Robust space representations: Full spectrum of space missions Explicit maritime and expeditionary representations Special and systemic effects models representing campaign impacts not explicitly represented (e.g., special operations force (SOF), Cyber) Software Development and Maintenance

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STORM user group meeting, called Global Users of STORM (GUSt) meeting, is scheduled annually During the GUSt meeting, following STORM-related topics are discussed:

STORM model management status STORM software development and support status STORM user organization quad-charts STORM pre/post processing tools The meeting hosting and preparation involves both government and support contractor teams Advanced training is usually offered during the GUSt meeting

STORM User Support STORM User Group Meeting

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Mission: provide community greater visibility of changes to the model, ensure coherence and credibility of methodologies across modeling domains, and enable more transparent prioritization of investments in model capability Core Function: review and prioritize proposed modifications that add new capability to the model Each CCB voting organization represents different services / commands / organizations SAF/SA – USAF and Intel

OPNAV N81 – USN

CD&I OAD - USMC

J8 WAD – Joint Staff / OSD / Combatant Commands (CCMD)

STORM User Support Configuration Control Board (CCB)

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Each year, two STORM introductory courses are offered to all active user group members Primary purposes of the course are:

Providing an overview of STORM and its modeling capabilities to new users Familiarizing with campaign analysis techniques The course is hosted by the support contractor team The course is offered in person with instructors providing the overview of STORM and guiding each student using following tools:

A course material describing all capabilities of STORM An exercise book containing sample problems for students to test their understanding of course materials A workstation configured for executing STORM STORM User Support Trainings

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The user group website offers a convenient portal for STORM users to:

Report software bugs and submit change requests Download patches for STORM versions Submit inquiries to the STORM Model Manager and STORM software development team As part of STORM user support, SAF/SA manages the access to the user group website STORM User Support User Group Website / Help Desk

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STORM User Support GUSt Website / Help Desk

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STORM Support Contractor shall provide all personnel and support for STORM per section 2 of the PWS In addition to section 2 of the PWS, STORM Support Contractor shall provide all personnel and support for:

Supporting campaign analytic activities, such as scenario development, data generation, etc.

Conducting STORM software development and maintenance Providing STORM user support through:

Hosting and preparing the GUSt meeting Assisting the STORM CCB meeting preparation Providing STORM trainings to STORM users Maintaining the GUSt official website Answering to help desk / software change requests in coordination with the Program Manager Data Not Separately Priced (NSP) Contractor shall provide all personnel and support for STORM per section 6.4 of the PWS.

Travel in support of PWS and in accordance with Federal Travel Regulations (FTR) and Standard Regulation Section 925, as applicable, with a not to exceed price of $100,000 Per Year Cost No Fee.

Vendor Expectations Contract Tasking

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Questions ?

MiG-29 Crash at 1989 Paris Airshow

Mr. Mark Stankiewicz SAF/SAW Technical Director mark.stankiewicz.1@us.af.mil

571-256-2044 - DSN 260-2044

Ms. Lori Rush COR for STORM lori.rush@us.af.mil

571-256-2032 - DSN 260-2032

SAF/SAWC

1570 AF Pentagon Washington, DC 20330-1570

Contacts

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