Statement_of_Work_Earth_Quake_Center_1.pdf
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- Forecast Model Update NOTICE OF INTENT
- Solicitation number
- 140G0324Q0263
About this file
This document is a Statement of Work (SOW) related to a federal contract opportunity. The USGS intends to award a contract to the University of Alaska Fairbanks to update the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) Model used in the USGS Operational Aftershock Forecasts. The key objectives are to determine new parameters for regions of Alaska with consistent aftershock behavior, update the OAF Tools software package to accommodate changes in the USGS Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog, and collaborate on a journal article. The period of performance is estimated to be 09/23/2024 - 09/22/2025. The federal contract opportunity, a Special Notice, indicates the USGS intends to award the contract to the University of Alaska Fairbanks as the sole source, as they are the original developers of the OAF Tools software. The NAICS code is 541990 and the PSC code is R425. Responses are due by 09/10/2024.
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Scope of Work:
The USGS Operational Aftershock Forecasts are publicly available information about future earthquakes after magnitude and 5 and greater earthquakes in the U.S. and its territories. Due to the high level of seismicity in Alaska, many of these forecasts are in that state.
The Reasenberg-Jones aftershock model is being replaced by the USGS with the more realistic Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) Model in order to improve the quality of the USGS Operational Aftershock Forecasts. To accomplish this goal, new parameters must be determined for regions of Alaska that have consistent aftershock behavior. To accomplish this work, the USGS could use the following information:
1. Suggestions on possible ways to divide Alaska into regions that have common earthquake clustering behavior. Possible choices Possible choices include the regions model used in the USGS National Seismic Hazard Model and the regions used the Alaska Earthquake Center to develop the earthquake catalog.
2. Advice on the magnitude of completeness in the Alaska catalog as a function of space and time based on the evolution of the AEC network geometry and processing strategy.
3. Suggestions on the selection of sequences for use in parameter determination.
4. Collaborate on parameter determination for the individual sequences and on combining those parameter distributions into generic models for the regions defined in step 1.
5. Collaborate on a journal article about aftershock parameters and sequence behavior in Alaska.
Due to changes in the operation of the USGS Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog (ComCat), the OAF Tools package needs to be updated. This package is critical to monitoring ongoing forecasts and testing the forecasts against observed earthquakes so that we can make improvements. The overall goal is to make update the package so that it is functioning. Specific tasks are to:
1. Update the startviewer function so that searching for deleted products is an option.
2. Update the package so that the maximum time for a URL to return a result is an option.
3. Update the functions that store forecasts to read the current json product format. In particular, the code needs to read and store the median forecast number of events and to ignore the full distribution of the forecast number of events. The median and full distribution were not originally included in the json files.
4. Add the median values to the forecast success plot.
Period of Performance (estimated): 09/23/2024 - 09/22/2025
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