Source Sought Notice - Temp Model Development_1.pdf

Temperature Model Development

The Bureau of Reclamation has a requirement to develop a temperature modeling system. When responding to this Sources Sought notice, vendors should provide their DUNS number and describe their experience providing these services. We are seeking feedback from vendors regarding approaches to the contract type and structure of the price schedule. Vendors are encouraged to provide feedback in their response to this notice.

The NAIC code for this requirement will likely fall under one of the following:

541330 Engineering Services

541360 Geophysical and Mapping Services

541690 Other Scientific and Technical Consulting Services

Solicitation number 140R2020Q0064 has been assigned and should be referenced on all correspondence regarding this announcement. Please send your responses by email to Sherry Heibeck at sheibeck@usbr.gov before 12:00 P.M. Pacific Time on Monday, March 23, 2020.

The project is to develop a collection of data and a set of physically based tools within the CEQUAL W2 modeling platform capable of providing suggestions for short and long-term monitoring to assist resource managers of major Central Valley Project reservoirs with balancing water resources for downstream and temperature needs. A collaborative approach will be used in order to coordinate between the several agencies and parties that are actively involved in operations and water temperature management who bring considerable expertise to the process. Through community participation which allows for open communication in a transparent fashion, Reclamation intends to foster and leverage shared knowledge to produce a trusted product. The proposed approach aims to utilize existing models, update/refine existing model technology, and develop, as necessary, new models to be used to assist reservoir operation managers.

The development effort will be prioritized as follows:

First priority is completion of the Northern system – Shasta, Keswick, Trinity, Lewiston, and Whiskeytown Reservoirs.

Second priority is the American River system – Folsom Reservoir and Lake Natoma.

Third priority is the Stanislaus River system – New Melones, Tulloch, and Goodwin Reservoirs.

Reclamation’s objective is the effective and efficient management of resources for downstream regulatory and environmental requirements within the context of an uncertain environment. The primary development goal of these computational tools will be trusted, reasonable predictions of downstream water temperatures for planning, seasonal, and real-time applications while also describing situational risk and uncertainty.

For each system, a two-phase process is envisioned, with the first phase focusing on the physical lake/reservoir and facility features and the second phase establishing the downstream component, addressing uncertainty, and refining tools for application.

mailto:sheibeck@usbr.gov

Under Phase 1, models will be developed to include a strategy and implementation of data management, suggested monitoring and data collection, evaluation and selection of appropriate model/interface mechanisms, review and potential revisions / updates / developments of data, calibration, and validation.

Completion of phase 1 will be documented with a technical report outlining the development process, data stewardship, calibration methods and presentation of the validation results against historical data.

Under Phase 2, validated models will be developed into applications usable by Reclamation including the implementation of proposed model frameworks, pre and post-data processing, and implementation of proposed downstream linkages for in-river temperature prediction and identifying and describing future uncertainty. A final technical report outlining:

- Pre and post processing tools

- Forecasting

- Uncertainty

- Optimization / goal-seeking algorithms

- Hindcasting

- Model application and implementation.

For both Phases, each task will be documented by technical memorandums. Community participation including partner and stakeholder involvement and outreach are expected to be coordinated during all phases of the project. A secondary goal is the scheduling of workshop time designed to build Reclamation’s expertise in the application and implementation of the temperature models. Finally, Reclamation plans to coordinate a peer-review of the completed tool, framework and supporting materials to solidify the community’s trust in the models. The Contractor will be required to participate with the peer-review and response activities.

Technical Requirements:

Task 1 - Coordinate with Reclamation to scope Phase I of the modeling project, including prioritization of reservoirs and plans for completion of reservoir modeling whether in series or in parallel. Reclamation and contractor will cooperate to determine a schedule for Tasks 2-8 and discuss details such as data management and collection, calibration processes and validation result presentation. Contractor will produce final schedule after consultation process with Reclamation.

Task 2 - Contractor will develop a community participation plan, including but not limited to Modeling Technical Committee meetings. The purpose of these meetings will be to solicit comments and feedback on progress made in the Phase I and Phase II processes and to communicate and collaborate in an open and transparent fashion with the regional hydrologic modeling community, other agencies, and stakeholders (i.e. NMFS, State Water Resources Control Board, CVP contractors, etc.). Activities include pre-meeting preparation, attendance and note taking at meetings and calls, preparation of meeting summaries, coordination with meeting participants that will include system operators, biologists and physical modelers, follow-up on action items, and other project administrator activities. Coordination with, and training of, Reclamation staff will take place at these meetings and elsewhere in the process.

Contractor will produce and distribute PowerPoint slides and notes for each meeting.

Task 3 - Develop data management plan, specifying where data is to be stored, how it is to be communicated, and identifying missing data. This plan will describe surrogates or alternative modeling paths to deal with data that is not available. Data summaries will include metrics such as average temperatures in graphical and tabular formats, designed to Reclamation’s specifications. CVO will store inputs and data used to inform decision-making, and Reclamation modelers will be included in discussions. Security procedures will be outlined and implemented in coordination with Reclamation IT.

Task 4 - Collect necessary data for accomplishing the scoped modeling. Identify necessary data and sources for use with models. Model input data requirements will fit into three types of data in general;

time series data, physical data, and operational data. Time series data includes, but is not limited to, reservoir stage (storage), reservoir inflow (tributaries, diversions), precipitation, reservoir outflow (diversions, dam releases and spill), reservoir inflow and temperature profiles, and local meteorological data (solar radiation, cloud cover, air temperature, dew point temperature, wind speed and direction, atmospheric pressure, etc.). Physical data includes, but is not limited to, reservoir morphology (bathymetry), reservoir stage-volume-surface area curve, topographic shading information, location of diversions to and from the reservoir, and outlet work elevations and capacities (including Temperature Control Device/selective withdrawal facilities). Operations data includes, but is not limited to, storage rules and limits, operating rules, Temperature Control Device guidance, rate of change criteria, temperature targets or criteria, hydropower memoranda of agreement/understanding, and legal obligations on storage or releases. Operations data may not be formally inputted into the model but is often implicitly incorporated into analyses through pre-processing of hydrology and water temperature data and post-processing of model results to ensure operations are realistic and representative. Identify and/or develop data sources for historic data input requirements, current data input requirements, input requirements which will use forecast data, and all other data types. Develop and document metadata for all data sources. Perform quality analysis on historic data. Create automated mechanisms for data retrieval and/or quality control. Contractor will apply any filling of gaps, smoothing or other corrections deemed necessary in the data management plan. Conduct field monitoring at and near relevant reservoirs and bodies of water to collect additional data. Where necessary, work will be conducted through Reclamation staff based on their availability; contractor will also work closely with Reclamation modelers, ensuring they understand the choices made in data collection.

Task 5 - Structure model for each reservoir, determining model network and implementing unique aspects of dam operations such as Temperature Control Devices and the submerged Old Melones Dam.

Develop a system-wide framework that illustrates the spatial and temporal representation of each model used, how the different elements (reservoirs and rivers) relate to one another, how information is shared among the models (data and does the output from one model provide input to another model), status of the models (latest calibration, version), etc. This framework will provide insight into model refinement/development and ensure that tasks and phases can be prioritized based on need and ability to efficiently implement each task upon completion (i.e. place into direct use in current or refined framework).The two-dimensional network for each reservoir, including representations of important side channels, will be determined by the contractor in close coordination with Reclamation modelers and communicated in Modeling Technical Committee meetings and a technical memorandum outlining a modeling framework.

Task 6 - Calibrate model representation of reservoir temperatures to historical thermocline data to provide a stable modeling platform for future use by Reclamation. Include simulations of the fullest extent of historical data in the model package, allowing for analysis of dry and wet periods within this time frame. Contractor will produce updates on calibration for Modeling Technical Committee and Reclamation modelers.

Task 7 - Repeat Tasks 5-6 until the model structure supports an accurate calibration to historical data. Set up and use a version control process. Produce documentation on iterative improvements and provide details on a full validation of the model to historical data.

Task 8 - Deliver a Phase I report to Reclamation describing creation and implementation of data management plan, data collection, model structure and calibration, and validation to historical data. The report shall be professionally written, including a title page, table of contents, and illustrative figures throughout.

Task 9 - Conduct meeting with Reclamation to scope Phase II of modeling, comprising the development of an application-ready model for each reservoir with all necessary pre- and post-processing routines and other model support software. Contractor will work with Reclamation staff to identify application objectives, plan reservoir prioritizations, and schedule tasks 10-13 for each reservoir grouping, whether in series or in parallel. Contractor will produce a detailed schedule for the body of work described in Tasks 10-15.

Task 10 - Complete implementation of new/refined modeling components in a way that provides for operational use as early as possible, given the need to ensure that the new/refined modeling component is functioning properly and a fully operational system remains in place to prevent adverse outcomes as new modeling components are brought on-line. Implement model components in a parallel process. Define model performance metrics for comparing different modeling approaches. Develop performance information and complete comparison. Upon completion of each of the framework’s model components, the models will be applied to planning and management activities in parallel with the existing modeling and management approach. This process will provide a means for assessing model performance, identifying data gaps, and determining if continued model development or refinement of new or existing models may be desired. This process may also be used to determine if existing components of the framework are adequate and/or the most efficient means for continued operational modeling. To accomplish this task, data and similar forecasting information currently used in the temperature modeling planning and management process will be assumed. Implement planned work and produce capacity for model to operate in modalities determined for application. These may include forecasts and hindcasts as well as optimization of temperature operations given known flows. Work closely with Reclamation modelers to achieve goals and educate modelers on applications of model. This work may involve iterative development. Involve Reclamation modelers in this work and share progress in Modeling Technical Committee meetings as well as in a technical memorandum outlining procedures for model comparison, data utilized, linkage of models (modeling framework), results of comparison among models, and recommendations for future activities.

Task 11 - Contractor identifies elements in model that are potential sources of variability and uncertainty within the modeling approach. Determine data/components within system that contribute to significant uncertainty in specified model results. Contractor will review said elements with Reclamation and document them in a technical memorandum.

Task 12 – Develop procedures for uncertainty and estimation procedure for translating uncertainty to model results. Develop and communicate uncertainty bounds in estimates of water temperature downstream of reservoirs, as well as ability to achieve temperature targets throughout a complete season.

This potentially includes intermediate estimates of uncertainty on particular components of the system, such as predictions of lake stratification early in the season. Develop estimates/estimation procedures for uncertainty in relevant datasets and for translating uncertainty through modeling system to model results (may include determinations of joint uncertainty of several input/modeling components).

Task 13 - Develop any necessary pre- and post-processor software to complement model in achieving identified applications. Work closely with Reclamation modelers to achieve goals and train modelers on how to perform applications of the model using these tools.

Task 14 - Contractor will write a final Phase II report, detailing application modalities, technical steps taken to accommodate these modalities, and examples of operation. The report shall be professionally written, including a title page, table of contents, User’s Guide, Frequently Asked Questions list, and illustrative figures throughout. This report will be disseminated to the Modeling Technical Committee and will be made available to Reclamation modelers.

Task 15 - At end of FY24, peer review of the combined Phase II reports for all reservoirs will be conducted to assess the quality of the modeling conducted in the course of this project. Contractor will be available to provide information on the process, respond to questions during the review, and assist Reclamation in providing responses to completed reviews.