Somalia RFSA MY APS Round 1 For Public Comment.pdf

Issue Date: January 26, 2024 Deadline for Questions: February 16, 2024 at 4:00p.m. ET Closing Date: TBD

CFDA Number: 98.007 Closing Time: TBD

Subject: DRAFT Round 01 Somalia Resilience Food Security Activity

Program Title: BHA Multi-Year APS: Round 01 Somalia Resilience Food Security Activity (RFSA)

Federal Assistance Listing Number: 720BHA23APS00002-01-SOM

Introduction

Interested Applicants:

PLEASE NOTE: This Notification of Funding is Round One for full applications under existing “Multi-Year Annual Program Statement No. 720BHA23APS00002”.

All interested organizations should carefully review both this Round AND the full Annual Program Statement (APS), which can be found here: https://grants.gov/search-results-detail/348888. Important information contained in the full Base APS is not repeated in this specific Round One documentation.

Round One of the Multi-Year Annual Program Statement (MY APS) No. 720BfHA23APS00002-01-SOM USAID (referred to as MY APS Round, RFSA, or Somalia RFSA) is requesting the submission of applications focused on resilience and food security in Somalia. USAID anticipates issuing up to two (2) awards under this Round. Unless otherwise stated herein, all terms and conditions of the MY APS apply.

Please refer to the Base MY APS for additional information. While this Round is intended to be an elaboration of the information provided in the Base APS, should there be differences between the two, this MY APS Round 1 will supersede information in the Base APS. As such, both documents should be read in conjunction to ensure all application requirements are met.

Applicants should refer to the RFSA Application Guidance on the Resilience Food Security Activity section of the BHA website, including Technical References and the Monitoring and Evaluation Policy.

Thank you for your interest in USAID programs.

Sincerely, Matthew Nims Agreement Officer, Title II

Renee Newton Agreement Officer, Community Development Funds (CDF) https://grants.gov/search-results-detail/348888 https://www.usaid.gov/humanitarian-assistance/bha-rfsa https://www.usaid.gov/humanitarian-assistance/bha-rfsa

TABLE OF CONTENTS

This MY APS Round provides the following:

SECTION A: Program Description 3

SECTION B: Federal Award Information 22

SECTION C. Eligibility Information 23

SECTION D: Application and Submission Information 24

SECTION E: Application Review Information 55

SECTION F: Federal Award and Administration Information 60

SECTION G: Federal Awarding Agency Contact 61

SECTION H: Other Information 62

Appendix I: Essential Supporting Documents 63

Appendix II: Geographic Areas 64

SECTION A: Program Description

This funding opportunity is authorized under the Foreign Assistance Act (FAA) of 1961 and the Food for Peace Act of 2018, as amended (See Base APS Section B). The resulting award will be subject to 2 CFR 200 – Uniform Administrative Requirements, Cost Principles, and Audit Requirements for Federal Awards, and USAID’s supplement, 2 CFR 700, as well as the additional requirements found in the Base APS Section F. See Base APS Section A.1 for background information on BHA.

1. Overview

USAID’s Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (BHA) is committed to enhancing the resilience of vulnerable populations around the world. BHA’s resilience programming helps save lives, strengthen livelihoods, and build people’s capacities to better manage shocks and stresses. Using all of these approaches, BHA strengthens capacities of vulnerable populations to combat malnutrition, reduce morbidity and mortality, promote economic growth, minimize disaster risks, improve food security, and adapt to climate change. This RFSA will implement a contextually-adapted version of the graduation approach. This approach includes a strategically sequenced combination of consumption support, coaching, livelihood skill building, asset transfer, and savings that have been proven to improve the lives, and increase the resilience, of extremely poor households in many contexts, as detailed in Section A.7.

2. Country/Context/Background

Somalia remains one of the poorest countries in Africa, with nearly 70 percent of Somalis living in poverty1 and per capita annual income estimated at approximately $315 in 2018 (World Bank 2019).2

Poor Somali households face a variety of interconnected barriers, which reduce their resilience to shocks, including low literacy rates and educational attainment, limited labor market opportunities and participation, limited access to health services, and limited access to water and sanitation.3 Up to one-third of Somali households are headed by women,4 and according to the Federal Government of Somalia’s (FGS’s) ninth National Development Plan (NDP-9) 2020-2024, women “generate up to 70 percent of household income.”5 Despite the important role women play in the Somali context, cultural norms and beliefs limit women’s ability to access services, exercise decision-making power at the household and community levels, and pursue economic opportunities.6

6 USAID. Somalia Country Development and Cooperation Strategy (CDCS).

https://www.usaid.gov/sites/default/files/2022-05/Somalia_CDCS_External-2025.pdf

5 The Federal Government of Somalia. (January 5, 2020). Somali National Development Plan 9 - 2020 - 2024.

https://mop.gov.so/somali-national-development-plan-9-2020-2024/, page 22. As cited in USAID CDCS https://www.usaid.gov/sites/default/files/2022-05/Somalia_CDCS_External-2025.pdf

4 The Somali Health and Demographic Survey 2020 (SHDS). (2020). Directorate of National Statistics, Ministry of Planning, Investment and Economic Development, Federal Government of Somalia. Page 22: Separate UNFPA data indicates that one-fourth of households across all age groups are headed by women, including among displaced populations. Retrieved by UNFPA. (December 2019). Gender Equity: Hit or Miss in the Somali Population, pages 33-34. As cited in USAID CDCS. https://www.usaid.gov/sites/default/files/2022-05/Somalia_CDCS_External-2025.pdf

3 World Bank. (2022). Somalia Economic Update: Investing in Social Protection to Boost Resilience for Economic Growth. Washington, D.C.: World Bank.

https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099645010242215445/pdf/P17502402429f50e708a6408e3872dbb193.pdf.

2 Directorate of National Statistics, Federal Government of Somalia. The Somali Health and Demographic Survey 2020.

1 World Bank Group. (August 2019). Somali Poverty and Vulnerability Assessment.

https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/2869359f-a8b7-5a1a-aee4-f6ba7177a5ce https://www.usaid.gov/sites/default/files/2022-05/Somalia_CDCS_External-2025.pdf https://mop.gov.so/somali-national-development-plan-9-2020-2024/ https://www.usaid.gov/sites/default/files/2022-05/Somalia_CDCS_External-2025.pdf https://www.usaid.gov/sites/default/files/2022-05/Somalia_CDCS_External-2025.pdf https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099645010242215445/pdf/P17502402429f50e708a6408e3872dbb193.pdf.

https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/2869359f-a8b7-5a1a-aee4-f6ba7177a5ce

According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, at the end of 2022, there were 3.9 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Somalia,7 nearly 20 percent of the population.8 Additionally, an increasing number of rural Somalis are migrating or becoming displaced to urban areas. However, many are unable to productively join urban society as a result of social exclusion, extreme poverty, and limited urban livelihoods.9 Complicating matters, women and children move to IDP settlements first, as they are seen as more vulnerable and more likely to receive emergency relief in urban areas. Men usually stay behind to tend to remaining property. However, as many rural communities are engaged in climate-vulnerable agro-pastoral livelihoods, men will join their households in IDP settlements after either losing all livestock and assets or after guarding them has become untenable.10

“Another core challenge emanates from the interrelated issues of Somalia’s weak (and, in some cases, absent) state, prolonged conflict, and political instability, all of which serve as formidable impediments to economic growth, household resilience, and food security. Overall, these complex issues combine to create multidimensional poverty traps as households face major difficulties overcoming diverse hazards, accumulating assets, and building capabilities.”11 Additionally, high levels of poverty serve as a barrier for households to access sufficient foods. When faced with shock and stresses, desperate households are more likely to resort to negative coping mechanisms such as liquidating savings and selling off productive assets that have long-term negative consequences. “Food insecurity is thus both a consequence and cause of persistent poverty due to the complex interplay of poverty, conflict, climate vulnerabilities, inadequate infrastructure, and other economic constraints.”12

Somalia's geography and reliance on rain-fed agriculture make the nation vulnerable to severe climatic events, such as cycles of drought and flooding. These climatic events lead to periodic spikes in acute food insecurity, waterborne diseases, malnutrition, reduced agriculture production, livestock loss, negative coping mechanisms, and displacement - with women disproportionately bearing the heaviest burdens.13

With approximately 49 percent of the population residing in rural areas and 46 percent of the workforce engaged in agriculture—including crop cultivation, herding, fishing, and related activities—the recurrent onslaught of climate-related shocks intensifies food scarcity, exacerbates poverty, and deepens food insecurity in Somalia.14 Livestock rearing is a traditional practice with significant social, economic, and political dimensions. Livestock is the backbone of the economy and contributes to 80 percent of the agriculture GDP and nearly one-half of the national GDP. As a result of the drought and conflict, increasing numbers of pastoralists have become displaced.15 Additionally, the 2020-2021 desert locust infestation resulted in substantial damage to crops and grazing lands, severely impacting the livelihoods of farmers and herders.16

16 Satterlee, Erin, Madden, Payce, Wicaksono, Nicolas, Zhangalova, Ayazhan, & Miettunen, Juuso. (2023).

15 Wong, Madeleine. (August 17, 2023). Exploring investment opportunities for the livestock sector in Somalia.

https://www.ilri.org/news/exploring-investment-opportunities-livestock-sector-somalia

14 World Bank. (2017). Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture in Somalia. Washington, D.C.: World Bank.

https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/781281522164647812/pdf/124651-REVISED-Somalia-CEM-Agriculture-Report-Main-Report-Revi sed-July-2018.pdf.

13 USAID. Somalia CDCS. https://www.usaid.gov/sites/default/files/2022-05/Somalia_CDCS_External-2025.pdf

12 Ibid.

11 Satterlee, Erin, Madden, Payce, Wicaksono, Nicolas, Zhangalova, Ayazhan, & Miettunen, Juuso. (2023). BHA/TPQ/SPADe Somalia RFSA Activity Design Project Workplan. West Lafayette, IN: Long-term Assistance and Services for Research - Partners for University-Led Solutions Engine (LASER PULSE Consortium).

10 Spencer, J. & Yusuf, B. (August 8, 2023). Mixed approach to learning consultancy: Understanding livelihood-related urban-rural connections for women from Displacement Affected Communities (DACs) in South-West State of Somalia. UI.

9 Ibid.

8 USAID. Somalia CDCS. https://www.usaid.gov/sites/default/files/2022-05/Somalia_CDCS_External-2025.pdf

7 Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre. Somalia.

https://www.internal-displacement.org/countries/somalia#:~:text=Violence%20in%20the%20Galgaduud%20and,data%20became%20available %20in%202009 https://www.ilri.org/news/exploring-investment-opportunities-livestock-sector-somalia https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/781281522164647812/pdf/124651-REVISED-Somalia-CEM-Agriculture-Report-Main-Report-Revised-July-2018.pdf.

https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/781281522164647812/pdf/124651-REVISED-Somalia-CEM-Agriculture-Report-Main-Report-Revised-July-2018.pdf.

https://www.usaid.gov/sites/default/files/2022-05/Somalia_CDCS_External-2025.pdf https://www.internal-displacement.org/countries/somalia#:~:text=Violence%20in%20the%20Galgaduud%20and,data%20became%20available%20in%202009 https://www.internal-displacement.org/countries/somalia#:~:text=Violence%20in%20the%20Galgaduud%20and,data%20became%20available%20in%202009

Economic challenges add yet another layer of complexity to Somalia's food crisis. The nation's reliance on food imports exposes Somalia to volatility in international market prices, making it increasingly arduous for vulnerable populations to access affordable and nutritious sustenance. For example, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has exacerbated economic challenges, further deepening the multi-faceted humanitarian crisis and heightening the vulnerability of individuals in the affected region.17 Alarming levels of poverty and soaring unemployment rates further erode the purchasing power of the populace, leaving them even more susceptible to food insecurity and deepening multidimensional poverty traps. In addition to these economic challenges, according to Springer et al, as of 2022, “Al Shabaab is considered to be the most powerful market stakeholder, controlling over 80 percent of agricultural land, significant water resources, and movement of people and goods (through armed checkpoints and additional taxation, with the power to exclude certain groups from participating in market activities), and inhibiting infrastructure development.”18

In 2022, the food security situation in Somalia deteriorated further, prompting a surge in humanitarian interventions under the US Government’s leadership. The sustained distribution of food and cash assistance reached an average of 4.4 million people per month from January to March 2023.

Consequently, the rapid scale-up and continuity of humanitarian aid has played a crucial role in mitigating against excess mortality, forestalling a deterioration in food security, and thereby preventing famine outcomes in numerous regions.19

3. US Government Policies and Strategies

By implementing a contextually-adapted version of the graduation approach, this RFSA will align with the following US Government policies and strategies in addition to those listed in the Base APS:

● The Strategic Framework for Early Recovery, Risk Reduction, and Resilience (ER4) provides guidance on BHA’s ER4 programming as humanitarian assistance evolves and adapts to a changing humanitarian landscape, characterized by climate change, global migration, urbanization, and the rise of infectious disease outbreaks and global pandemics. As humanitarian crises grow more protracted and complex, humanitarian and development actors must move beyond responding to sudden-onset disasters and towards addressing chronic vulnerabilities and reducing the overall impact of recurrent shocks and stresses. The graduation approach successfully builds household-level resilience to shocks and stresses, with examples from multiple contexts including Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and South Sudan.20, 21

21 Chowdhury, R., Collins, E., Ligon, E., and Munshi, K. (2016). Valuing Assets Provided to Low-Income Households in South Sudan. Working Paper.

https://bracupgi.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Valuing-Assets-Provided-to-Low-Income-Households-in-South-Sudan.pdf.

20 Bedoya, G., Belyakova, Y., Coville, A., Escande, T., Isaqzadeh, M., and Ndiaye, A. (2023). The Enduring Impacts of a Big Push during Multiple Crises: Experimental Evidence from Afghanistan. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper #10596.

https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/40577 Balboni, C., Bandiera, O., Burgess, R., Ghatak, M., and Heil, A. (2021). Why Do People Stay Poor? The Quarterly Journal of Economics 137 (2):

785-844. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjab045

19 Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) Technical Working Group for Somalia. (April 25, 2023). Somalia: IPC Food Security & Nutrition Snapshot: March-June 2023.

https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/somalia-ipc-food-security-nutrition-snapshot-march-june-2023-published-april-25-2023.

18 Springer et al. (2022). Comparative resilience of Somali (non-producer) grain and livestock market systems in Baidoa and Hudur. For RTI in partnership with the GEEL project, using the USAID Market Systems Resilience Analysis (MSRA) approach as cited in Spencer, J. & Yusuf, B.

(August 8, 2023). Mixed approach to learning consultancy: Understanding livelihood-related urban-rural connections for women from Displacement Affected Communities (DACs) in South-West State of Somalia. UI.

17 CARE. (September 2022). Somalia Food Insecurity Crisis.

https://www.care.org/our-work/disaster-response/emergencies/somalia-food-insecurity-crisis.

https://www.usaid.gov/humanitarian-assistance/what-we-do/early-recovery-risk-reduction-resilience https://bracupgi.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Valuing-Assets-Provided-to-Low-Income-Households-in-South-Sudan.pdf https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/40577 https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjab045 https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/somalia-ipc-food-security-nutrition-snapshot-march-june-2023-published-april-25-2023.

https://www.care.org/our-work/disaster-response/emergencies/somalia-food-insecurity-crisis

● The Building Resilience to Recurrent Crisis: USAID Policy and Program Guidance details approaches to leverage the broad range of our institutional capabilities to implement innovative programmatic approaches to promote resilience. This policy specifically focuses on areas where chronic poverty intersects with shocks and stresses, resulting in recurrent crises that undermine development gains. The policy focuses on women’s empowerment to increase the ability to respond quickly and effectively to new circumstances (adaptive capacity) and improve the ability to address and reduce risk. The graduation approach successfully builds household-level resilience to shocks and stresses for households experiencing chronic, multidimensional poverty.

● The proposed activity is consistent with the objectives of the Global Food Security Strategy, 2022

– 2026; in particular, strengthened resilience among people and systems.

4. Alignment with the Somalia Country Development and Cooperation Strategy

The Somalia RFSA will align with Development Objective Two (DO2) of the Somalia Country Development and Cooperation Strategy (CDCS), “Enable marginalized Somalis to more effectively withstand shocks and stresses.” To achieve this, livelihoods of marginalized populations must be strengthened and diversified (CDCS IR 2.2), social capital of marginalized populations must be strengthened (CDCS IR 2.3), and human capital of women must be strengthened (CDCS IR 2.4). DO2 builds the resilience of marginalized households and communities by focusing programming on improving crucial resilience capacities:

diversifying livelihoods, strengthening social capital, and enhancing the human capital of women.

5. Programming Principles

BHA expects applicants to design a graduation approach program that aligns with the following value statements:

● Design for People-Centered Approaches: BHA is committed to keeping the interests and voices of the people who are most vulnerable at the center of its work, and to funding activities based on the strengths, priorities, risks, and needs of the target population. Integrating diverse voices into program design requires intentional stakeholder engagement and meaningful partnerships to understand community resources and capacities, as well as the broader systems that support them through formal and informal institutions and social dynamics.

● Prioritization and Focus: In low resource environments, needs and opportunities can easily exceed an activity’s capacity to respond comprehensively and effectively. There are also limits to the level of change in knowledge, attitudes, and practices that individuals, households, and communities can absorb. Thus, prioritization and focus of activities are paramount in order to maximize impact. This RFSA will implement a contextually-appropriate graduation program, focusing resources and attention on a strategically sequenced suite of interventions that have been proven to generate progress toward the three Purposes outlined in Section A.8.

● Sequencing, Layering, and Integrating (SLI): Applicants are required to utilize SLI in their activity designs, both across BHA programs and other USAID activities as well as programs funded by the FGS and donors across the Humanitarian Development Peace (HDP) nexus, to maximize the impact and sustainability of interventions and create potential for longer-term success. Please see Section D.6.c.4 for more information on SLI.

https://www.usaid.gov/sites/default/files/2022-05/USAIDResiliencePolicyGuidanceDocument.pdf https://www.usaid.gov/what-we-do/agriculture-and-food-security/us-government-global-food-security-strategy https://www.usaid.gov/what-we-do/agriculture-and-food-security/us-government-global-food-security-strategy https://www.usaid.gov/sites/default/files/2022-05/Somalia_CDCS_External-2025.pdf

● Strive for Sustainability: BHA is committed to supporting long-term and self-perpetuating change and the continued well-being of populations who are vulnerable. This RFSA will achieve sustainability in multiple ways: first, by implementing a specific approach–the graduation approach–whose positive impacts on consumption and assets have been demonstrated to persist for at least seven years after graduation in multiple settings.22, 23, 24 Please see Section D.6.c.4 (page 37) for more information on the Sustainability Plan and Section D.6.c.4 (page 31) for more information on SLI.

● Localization and Private Sector Engagement: BHA is committed to locally led, inclusive, and equitable approaches. To the greatest extent possible, applicants should be guided by the leadership and experience of communities and diverse local actors, including women, persons living with disabilities, youth, Indigenous Peoples, and other individuals who have been marginalized and underrepresented. Likewise, activities are encouraged to link to the private sector, which can offer an opportunity to improve the impacts and sustainability of interventions. Please see Section D.6.c.4 (page 31) for more information on SLI and Section D.6.c.5 (page 39) for more information on management.

● Climate Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management: Climate change increases the frequency and intensity of disasters and food insecurity, escalating the need for humanitarian assistance as well as leading to social disruption, displacement, and political instability and exacerbating fragility, conflict, and violent extremism. Disaster Risk Management lays the foundation for resilience and safeguards the success of the graduation approach in the face of shocks and stresses. By reducing the impact of recurrent disasters, households can reduce loss of livelihoods and assets, invest resources for development and bounce back from crises without significant loss of wellbeing gains. The graduation approach improves households' resilience and ability to adapt by increasing savings, assets, and productive skills. Please see Section A.8.c (page 17) for more information on disaster risk management.

● Use Evidence and Learning for High Quality and Adaptive Management: BHA is leveraging the learning from past and ongoing programming, and the global body of cost-effectiveness evidence, to improve program quality and apply evidence-based approaches to support communities to move towards sustainable change and out of extreme poverty and chronic vulnerability. Building upon and applying both cost-effectiveness evidence and operational knowledge from past emergency and development activities, especially graduation programs implemented in relevant contexts, fosters a more holistic understanding of the context-specific, social, political, economic, cultural, and climatic factors that affect vulnerability, stability, resilience, and growth. Effective learning approaches work to anticipate and mitigate context-specific shocks and stressors and potential unintended consequences of interventions through data utilization, experiential learning, and adaptive management.

24 Barker, N., Karlan, D., Udry, C., & Wright, K. (2023). The Fading Treatment Effects of a Multi-Faceted Asset Transfer Program in Ethiopia.

Northwestern Institute for Policy Research WP-23-14.

23 Banerjee, A., Duflo, E., & Sharma, G. (2021). Long-Term Effects of Targeting the Ultra Poor Program. American Economic Review: Insights, 3 (4), 471-486. https://doi.org/10.1257/aeri.20200667.

22 Bandiera, O., Burgess, R., Das, N., Gulesci, S., Rasul, I., & Sulaiman, M. (2017). Labor Markets and Poverty in Village Economies. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 132 (2), 811-870. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjx003.

https://doi.org/10.1257/aeri.20200667.

https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjx003

6. Operational Principles

The operating environment in Somalia is incredibly complex, and the rent-seeking behavior of gatekeepers and landowners are deeply entrenched in clan dynamics that have developed over decades.

Considering complications that past and current programs experienced implementing in Somalia, it is important for organizations to have clearly defined operational principles. These include decentralized decision-making within a consortium, allowing local partners and those implementing the program agency for improved learning, accountability, transparency, and risk management. This also includes allowing for adaptive management, flexible budgeting, and the use of crisis modifiers. For effective adaptive management, evidence-based pivots do not need to be based on complex research, nor do implementers have to wait to fail to decide to adapt programming. Applicants will be asked to operationalize adaptive management through proposed management innovations that lower structural barriers to change, incentivize change to take place, and inspire a culture of change through demonstrating what is possible. There should also be a focus on on-going operational learning to allow for scenario planning and adaptive programming. Please see Section D.6.c.5 (page 39) on the management plan.

7. Graduation Approach

This approach combines and carefully sequences interventions tailored to the challenges faced by the ultra-poor in a particular context. “Working together, these interdependent interventions lead to strong outcomes at the household level including increased or improved assets, food security, savings and financial inclusion, health outcomes, social integration, and productive skills.”25

The selection of the graduation approach for this RFSA is motivated by a broad evidence base indicating that graduation programs can be highly cost-effective across settings. Randomized evaluations across 6 countries (Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Ghana, India, Pakistan, and Peru) found impacts on household economic outcomes after both 12 and 36 months: households reported a 5 to 18 percent increase in household consumption, with program costs ranging from about $800 to $2,000 per household in 2022 USD.26 These effects are meaningful, and the intervention is cost-effective, relative to effects generated by alternative approaches. Other programs, like one in Afghanistan, found household food insecurity fell by 0.48 points relative to a score of 5.9 in the comparison group, participant’s earnings increased by 39 percent, and total savings were six times greater than those in the comparison group; the intervention cost $1,997 per household in 2022 USD.27 Another program in Afghanistan found that, four years after a graduation program, participating households had higher consumption (16% higher), income (32% higher), and ability to recover from shocks (53% more likely) than those in the comparison group, despite two severe droughts, escalating conflict and insecurity, and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the years following the intervention.28 The graduation approach can also drive a sustained impact on

28 Bedoya, G., Belyakova, Y., Coville, A., Escande, T., Isaqzadeh, M., and Ndiaye, A. (2023). The Enduring Impacts of a Big Push during Multiple Crises: Experimental Evidence from Afghanistan. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper #10596. https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10596

27 Gibbs A., Corboz J., Chirwa E., et al. (2020). The impacts of combined social and economic empowerment training on intimate partner violence, depression, gender norms and livelihoods among women: an individually randomised controlled trial and qualitative study in Afghanistan. BMJ Global Health; 5:e001946.

26 Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL) & IPA. (September 2015). Building Stable Livelihoods for the Ultra-Poor.

https://poverty-action.org/sites/default/files/publications/building-stable-livelihoods-ultra-poor.pdf

25 Dharmadasa, H., Hashemi, S. M., Samaranayake, S., & Whitehead, L. (2016). BRAC Propel Toolkit: An implementation guide to the ultra-poor graduation approach. https://www.un.org/esa/socdev/egms/docs/2016/Poverty-SDGs/BRAC-PROPEL-Toolkit.pdf https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10596 https://poverty-action.org/sites/default/files/publications/building-stable-livelihoods-ultra-poor.pdf https://www.un.org/esa/socdev/egms/docs/2016/Poverty-SDGs/BRAC-PROPEL-Toolkit.pdf poverty. Other long-run follow-up studies conducted in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and India, saw an increase in impacts over time (seven, seven, and 10 years, respectively).29, 30, 31

In Samburu County, Kenya, participants in a “streamlined” graduation program, in which productive asset grants and mentorship were provided to groups of three participants, and no consumption support was provided, found their annual income increased by 12 percent, assets increased by 414 percent, and savings increased 500 percent with a benefit-cost ratio of 2.2, including spillovers to non-participants;

the intervention cost $632 per household in 2022 USD.32 Other “streamlined” programs have generated similarly positive results: in Zambia, a government-implemented program that provided only a productive cash grant and access to savings groups (without additional training, coaching, or consumption support) generated a 20% increase in household consumption, a 165% increase in household savings, and improvement on multiple food security indicators; the intervention cost $394 per household in 2022 USD.33

In many cases, psychosocial well-being and other outcomes also improve as a result of the graduation approach; indices of physical well-being (which summarize participants’ perceptions of their own health, whether they need to miss work, and ability to perform physical tasks) increased by 0.11 standard deviations four years after a graduation program in Bangladesh, and by 0.19 standard deviations ten years after a program in India; these programs cost $419 and $463 per household, respectively, in 2022 USD.34, 35 Graduation programs have also generated positive impacts on social capital, with programs in Afghanistan, Niger, and Uganda leading to 0.09 to 0.33 standard deviation increases in indices summarizing participants’ responses to questions about social connectedness and support; the per-household cost of these programs ranged from $210 to $1,997 per household in 2022 USD.36, 37, 38, 39

The graduation approach includes the following five core elements:

● Consumption support to ensure basic needs are met while starting or expanding livelihoods.

This is typically provided in the form of cash assistance, delivered in installments that generally last 10 to 24 months, and is designed to help participants stabilize food consumption levels until they start earning income from the livelihoods facilitated through other program components. In most graduation programs, the total amount transferred tends to fall within the range of $10 to

39 Sedlmayr, R., Shah, A., & Sulaiman, M. (May 2020). Cash-plus: Poverty impacts of alternative transfer-based approaches. Journal of Development Economics 144, 102418. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2019.102418

38 Blattman, C., Green, E. P., Jamison, J. M., Lehmann, C., & Annan, J. (April 2016). The Returns to Microenterprise Support among the Ultrapoot:

A Field Experiment in Postwar Uganda. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 8 (2), 32-64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/app.20150023

37 Bossuroy, T., Goldstein, M., Karmou, B., Karlan, D., Kazianga, H., Pariente, W., Premand, P., Thomas, C. C., Udry, C., Vaillant, J., & Wright, K. A.

(April 2022). Tackling psychosocial and capital constraints to alleviate poverty. Nature 605, 291–297.

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04647-8

36 Bedoya, G., Coville, A., Haushofer, J., Isaqzadeh, M., & Shapiro, J. (June 2019).

35 Banerjee, A., Duflo, E., & Sharma, G. (December 2021). Long-Term Effects of the Targeting the Ultra Poor Program. American Economic Review: Insights, 3 (4): 471-486. https://doi.org/10.1257/aeri.20200667

34 Bandiera, O., Burgess, R., Das, N., Gulesci, S., Rasul, I., & Sulaiman, M. (March 2017).

33 Botea, I, Brudevold-Newman, A, Goldstein, M, Low, C, and Roberts, J. (2023). Supporting Women’s Livelihoods at Scale: Evidence from a Nationwide Multi-faceted Program. NBER Working Paper #31625. http://www.nber.org/papers/w31625

32Carter, M., Zheng, G., & Jensen, N. (April 2022). Clearing Pathways to Prosperity with a Livelihood Building Program in Kenya. Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Markets, Risk & Resilience, no. 2022-02.

https://bracupgi.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/MRR-Evidence-Insight-2022-02-Samburu-midline-FINAL.pdf

31 Barker, N., Karlan, D., Udry, C., & Wright, K. (May 11, 2023). The Fading Treatment Effects of a Multi-Faceted Asset Transfer Program in Ethiopia. Northwestern Institute for Policy Research WP-23-14.

https://www.ipr.northwestern.edu/our-work/working-papers/2023/wp-23-14.html

30 Banerjee, A., Duflo, E., & Sharma, G. (December 2021).

29 Dizikes, P. (May 10, 2022). Springing people from the poverty trap. Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) News.

https://news.mit.edu/2022/poverty-trap-bangladesh-0510 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2019.102418 http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/app.20150023 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04647-8 https://doi.org/10.1257/aeri.20200667 http://www.nber.org/papers/w31625 https://bracupgi.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/MRR-Evidence-Insight-2022-02-Samburu-midline-FINAL.pdf https://www.ipr.northwestern.edu/our-work/working-papers/2023/wp-23-14.html https://news.mit.edu/2022/poverty-trap-bangladesh-0510

$30 per month, with variations based on local purchasing power, household size, availability of other sources of income, and presence of other high frequency cash transfer programs in which households already participate. Cash transfers should align with HA and social safety net transfer values, as applicable. See cash transfer section for more information.

● Ongoing coaching and mentoring. Graduation programs provide ongoing support designed to help participants overcome emotional and psychosocial hurdles and knowledge gaps that might prevent them from running a successful livelihood. In addition to helping participants with business planning, money management, financial refresher skills, and social support, coaches also provide referrals to health and other services. Many graduation programs include weekly household visits from implementing partner staff, delivered for 12-24 months, though some programs provide less frequent (e.g., every 6 weeks) visits, provide visits for a shorter time (e.g., 6-9 months), or deliver coaching to groups instead of one-on-one. In addition, some programs identify local community volunteers who can fulfill the coaching function, rather than using paid program staff. The coaching and mentoring component of the graduation includes elements of social and behavior change, the systematic application of iterative, theory-based, and research-driven processes and strategies for change at the household level.

● Improved access to savings or other financial services. Once their food consumption stabilizes, graduation programs encourage participants to start saving, either by facilitating the creation of informal savings groups (including through Self Help Groups (SHG), village savings and loan associations (VSLA), etc.) or by linking participants to formal financial service providers.

● Training on business-related and other skills (e.g., soft skills) to increase economic security.

Participants receive training on the skills (both technical and interpersonal) required to start or expand a viable livelihood. Most trainings include a total of 20-40 hours of content, which can be delivered in a concentrated period of 4-5 days, or through shorter weekly sessions delivered over the course of 10-16 weeks. Training is typically delivered immediately before, or shortly after, the transfer of the productive asset, so it will be fresh in participants’ minds. See the Contextualization Period (Section D.6.c.4) for critical discussion of local adaptation required in order to identify viable livelihoods. Applicants should describe how they will adapt their training material to meet the needs and skills of the target population, including literacy and numeracy levels.

● Provision of a productive asset, typically as a cash transfer. Participants receive a productive asset transfer designed to “jump start” one or more income-generating activities in order to start (or expand) a viable livelihood (see point #3 under Contextualization Period below for identification of viable livelihoods). The productive asset should be timed in accordance with other elements of the graduation approach. For example, the productive asset should be provided after training on business-related skills, business planning, and money management. In most cases, the asset is provided in the form of a lump-sum cash transfer, but it may also be delivered in-kind. The value of the asset typically ranges from $200-$400 per household, again varying based on local purchasing power and the target livelihoods. See cash transfer information in Section D.6.c.4 (page 35).

Applicants should detail how they will provide linkages between participating households and services such as healthcare, water, and/or livelihoods-related technical assistance. Applicants should detail how they will link extremely poor and socially marginalized households with the broader systems for sustainable change in food security and related outcomes. These services will vary depending on the context and may include:

● Access to community health workers, government health facilities, and community clinics;

● Access to safe water points or support to install water points at the household level;

● Participation in maternal health care, ante- and post-natal programmes;

● Provision of support packages for expectant and lactating mothers, including supplemental nutrition and hygiene packages;

● Linkages to support services, such as veterinary or agriculture extension services; and/or

● Linkages to markets where goods and services can generate an income for the household.

Linkages should be incorporated within the five components of the graduation approach. Illustrative examples of linkages include:

● Information to participants during coaching sessions: As part of Component #2, in the above description of the graduation approach, coaches provide information about how participants can access services offered by other implementers (whether for-profit, nonprofit, or government)

● Invite external providers to savings group meetings: As part of Component #3 detailed above, the implementing partner may inform relevant service providers about the time and location of participant group meetings (e.g., savings group meetings) so that providers can make their services or information available to participants (at no additional cost to the implementing partner)

● Coordination with service providers: As part of Component 4, implementing partner staff may coordinate with the private sector and invite them to participants' meetings/sessions to introduce the participants as potential business clients and partners.

Proposed interventions should align with the BHA Strategy and Programming Principles outlined in Section A and be described in sufficient detail to assess their operational and technical appropriateness and feasibility. Technical approaches proposed should be evidence-based and adhere to the graduation approach. The technical approach must include, at a minimum, the following:

● Details of why each component of the graduation approach will achieve the purposes and sub-purposes;

● Details of how each component of the graduation approach will be implemented and by whom;

and

● Details of how each component of the graduation approach will work together.

8. Theory of Change

a. Activity Goal

Extremely poor, socially marginalized populations in IDP settlements and surrounding host communities improve and maintain their food security despite shocks and stresses.

b. Activity Purposes/Sub Purposes/ Cross-cutting Themes

● Purpose 1: Social capital strengthened

○ Sub-Purpose 1.1: Existing social capital networks strengthened and expanded

○ Sub-Purpose 1.2: Linkages to new social capital networks established

○ Sub-Purpose 1.3: Linkages between urban and rural communities improved

● Purpose 2: Human capital increased

○ Sub-Purpose 2.1: Psychosocial capacities and well-being increased

○ Sub-Purpose 2.2: Capacities and skills increased

● Purpose 3: Prosperous and resilient livelihoods improved and sustained

○ Sub-Purpose 3.1: Livelihood opportunity access improved

○ Sub-Purpose 3.2: Access to information and market opportunities increased

○ Sub-purpose 3.3: Savings and access to capital to start or expand livelihood access

c. Theory of Change Narrative

BHA expects applicants to propose a classical Graduation activity with five components contextualized to the Somalia context. Extremely poor, socially marginalized populations in IDP settlements and surrounding host communities improve and maintain their food security despite shocks and stresses.

THE REMAINDER OF THIS PAGE LEFT BLANK INTENTIONALLY.

Exhibit 1: Theory of Change Diagram

There is an overwhelming need to increase the extremely poor and socially marginalized populations’ ability to improve food security and maintain these gains even in the face of shocks and stresses. The graduation approach, Section A.7, can support participating households in the Somali context by:

1. Strengthening social capital including expanding existing social networks, accessing new social networks, and continuing to bolster linkages between rural and urban communities;

2. Increasing human capacities including self-efficacy, ability to meet basic needs, and livelihood-related skills; and

3. Improving and sustaining prosperous and resilient livelihoods through increased access to diversified livelihood opportunities, livelihood skill building, increased access to information and market opportunities, and improved access to savings and capital.

Extremely poor and marginalized households in Somalia struggle under the weight of extreme and pervasive poverty. In a complex and shock prone context like Somalia, resilience to shocks and stresses is paramount for long-term well-being. In addition, improvements to social and human capital, which are likely outcomes of the graduation approach, are necessary complements to improved and sustained livelihoods for long-term resilience and food security.

Purpose 1 Narrative: Social capital strengthened

Purpose One directly aligns with the CDCS IR 2.3: Social capital of marginalized population strengthened.

Social capital consists of the benefits an individual gains from their social networks, connections, and groups.40 “More than just human relationships, social capital refers to and consists of a range of social factors, including social norms, trust, social identity, and group belonging.”41 In the Somali context, social capital underpins all elements of resilience and food security as the “ability to turn to one’s connections during a crisis plays a pivotal role in households’ capacity to cope and manage the impact of shocks and stresses.”42 For example, households report relying on their neighbors, clan, community members, and the diaspora for support in the forms of cash loans, labor, livestock, and credit during periods of flooding, crop failures, and upticks in insecurity. In Somalia, social capital depends on several factors, including a clan or social group’s history of migration, education, urbanization, and emigration. Additionally, rural-urban linkages are a critical component of social capital. Household members will likely live in various geographic locations including rural, peri-urban and urban. These family members are interdependent on one another as part of Somalia's social fabric. Applicants will need to consider rural-urban socio-economic networks.

In the context of the graduation approach, some evidence indicates that facilitating interaction among participants can enhance the impacts and cost-effectiveness of the core program. Additionally, the RFSA is likely to generate improvements in social capital by virtue of implementing the graduation approach, which has generated positive impacts on community participation, social cohesion, and community closeness, social support, and risk sharing even when implemented without specific components

42 Elsamahi, M., Kim, J, & Scantlan, J. (April 2022).

41 ResilienceLinks. Social Capital. https://www.resiliencelinks.org/building-resilience/social-capital

40 Elsamahi, M., Kim, J, & Scantlan, J. (April 2022). Resilience in Somalia and Opportunities for Measurement Innovation for the Resilience Population-level Measurement Activity. Mogadishu, Somalia: Resilience Population-level Measurement (RPM) Activity.

https://dldocs.mercycorps.org/ResilienceInSomaliaMeasurementInnovationRPM.pdf https://www.resiliencelinks.org/building-resilience/social-capital https://dldocs.mercycorps.org/ResilienceInSomaliaMeasurementInnovationRPM.pdf focused on these outcomes.43, 44, 45, 46 For example, in the Graduating to Resilience activity in western Uganda, a group coaching model led to improvements in an index of bridging social capital.47 In postwar northern Uganda, adding a short, relatively low-cost training on how to establish SHGs and work together to a graduation-style program increased participants’ cooperation and earnings.48 Evidence on SHGs more broadly finds that SHG participation “appears associated with increased community participation and influence.”49 In Somalia, SHGs have been operationalized in multiple projects, including as part of the Building Resilient Communities in Somalia (BRCiS) program, with more than 30 organizations implementing the model.50 Findings from a government-run SHG program in India indicate that formation of higher-level federations of SHGs and SHG-bank linkages can be achieved at a relatively low marginal cost. The program in India only improved social empowerment when implemented at a small scale (200 villages), and failed to generate similar impacts once it had been scaled up (about 540 villages), necessitating attention on program quality when scaled.51

Building on this evidence and an understanding of the Somali context, applicants should include explicit attempts to build social capital within the core components of the graduation approach such as group coaching coupled with savings groups, linkages, and other approaches built on lessons learned from past programming.

Purpose 2 Narrative: Human capital increased

Purpose 2 aligns with CDCS IR 2.4, human capital of women increased, and focuses on the marginalized population’s ability to make proactive and informed choices by addressing knowledge gaps, improving psychosocial well-being, and supporting access to and use of basic services. By implementing the graduation approach, this Purpose will specifically focus on livelihood skills development and psychosocial functioning and well-being, including aspirations, planning, and self-efficacy. In addition, given that “women’s physical health is also a vital factor strengthening human capital,"52 this activity will promote good health and hygiene behaviors and practices through either (a) specific, evidence-informed components of the coaching curriculum, or (b) linkages and referrals to existing services such as education, health, nutrition, and WASH.

Maintaining and building human capital requires that households are able to meet their basic needs; by delivering (or coordinating with other actors who deliver) consumption support, this activity will ensure

52 Ibid.

51 Siwach G, Paul S, de Hoop T. (May 2022). Economies of scale of large-scale international development interventions: Evidence from self-help groups in India. World Dev.; 153:105839. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X22000298

50 Venton, C.C., Clarey, T., Calhoun, N., & Loselben, E. (January 2019). Self Help Groups and Resilience in Somalia: Supporting and Strengthening the SHG Ecosystem Consultation Report.

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5b2110247c93271263b5073a/t/5d115737ec47000001362ce8/1561417529541/Somalia+SHG+Consultati on+report+Final+Jan+28+2019.pdf

49 Gugerty, M.K., Biscaye, P., & Anderson, C.L. (April 2018). Delivering Development? Evidence on self-help groups as development intermediaries in South Asia and Africa. Development Policy Review 37(1), 129-151. https://doi.org/10.1111/dpr.12381

48 Blattman, C., Green, E. P., Jamison, J. M., Lehmann, M. C., & Annan, J. (April 2016). The Returns to Microenterprise Support among the Ultra Poor: A Field Experiment in Postwar Uganda. American Economic Journal: Applied, 8(2), 35-64.

https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/app.20150023.

47 Technical and Operational Performance Support (TOPS) Uganda Graduation Randomized Control Trial Associate Award. (2022).

https://pdf.us…