AREFSPacificAdaptationAssessment_final_draft.pdf

ASIA

ASIA REGIONAL

ENVIRONMENTAL FIELD

SUPPORT

STATE OF CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY AND

ADAPTATION IN SELECTED PACIFIC ISLAND

NATIONS

Draft

January 19, 2012 This report is made possible by the support of the American People through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents of this report are the sole responsibility of International Resources Group (IRG) and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.

PHOTO: Tidal flooding in Tuvalu

Contract No.: EPP-I-00-06-00007

Task Order: AID-OAA-TO-11-00068

USAID/ASIA BUREAU

ASIA REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL FIELD SUPPORT

STATE OF CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION

IN SELECTED PACIFIC ISLAND NATIONS

Draft

19 JANUARY, 2012

Prepared by: Maria Haws, PhD For:

International Resources Group 1211 Connecticut Avenue, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036 202-289-0100 Fax 202-289-7601 www.irgltd.com

January, 2012 This report is made possible by the support of the American People through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents of this report are the sole responsibility of International Resources Group (IRG) and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.

http://www.irgltd.com/

Table of Content Table of Contents ...................................................................................................................................................................................... i

Glossary .......................................................................................................................................................................................................v

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................................................................... vi

Assessment Objectives and Methods ....................................................................................................................................... vi

Geographic Scope and Methods ................................................................................................................................................. vi

Findings and Recommendations ............................................................................................................................................... vi

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background

1.2 Structure of the Report

1.3 Report Methodology and Data Sources

1.3.1 Online survey

2. CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION TRENDS IN PACIFIC ISLAND STATES

2.1 Trends and Drivers of Climate Change Vulnerability

2.1.2 Vulnerability by Ecosystem Type

2.1.2.1 Coastal ecosystems

2.1.2.2 Forests and terrestrial ecosystems

2.1.2.3 Freshwater Ecosystems

2.1.2.4 High Seas resources

2.1.3 Human Drivers of Climate Vulnerability

2.1.3.1 Population growth

2.1.3.2 Gender

2.1.3.3 Youth

2.1.3.4 Poverty

2.1.3.5 Conflict

2.1.3.6 Disasters

2.1.3.7 Urbanization

Pacific Island Country CCA Assessment Page ii

2.1.3.8 Health

2.2 Impacts of Increased Global Warming on Vulnerability

3. PRINCIPAL SECTORS, POPULATIONS AND ASSETS AT MOST RISK

3.1 PNG, a special case in Oceania

3.2 The atoll nations

3.3 Urbanized areas

3.4 Countries or regions with particularly low institutional capacity, budgetary constraints or which are currently under-served

3.5 The U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands

4. CURRENT CLIMATE ADAPTATION INTERVENTIONS BY DONORS AND OTHER ORGANIZATIONS

4.1 Interventions to mitigate vulnerabilities and to support planned adaptation policies and measures

4.1.1 Mitigation

4.1.2 Adaptation

4.2 Country Interventions

4.2.1 Kiribati

4.2.2. Federated States of Micronesia (FSM)

4.2.3 Fiji

4.2.4. Nauru

4.2.5. PNG

4.2.5 Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI)

4.2.6. Republic of Palau

4.2.6. Samoa

4.2.7. Solomon Islands

4.2.8 Tonga

4.2.9. Tuvalu

4.2.9 Vanuatu

5. GAPS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR REGIONAL ADAPTATION PROGRAMMING

Pacific Island Country CCA Assessment Page iii

5.1 Investments

5.1.1. Sector and Adaptation Priorities

5.1.1.1 Water Resources (cross-cutting)

5.2. Policy Reform

5.3 Capacity Building

5.4 Education and awareness

5.5. Research and Monitoring

5.6 Finance and management

6. Ranking of Gaps and Opportunities by Priority

7. EXISTING USAID REGIONAL OR BILATERAL PROGRAMS THAT MERIT EXPANSION OR ENHANCEMENT

7.1 UNFCCC

7.1.1. Global Environmental Fund (GEF)

7.1.2. Least Developed Country Fund (LDCF)

7.1.3 Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF)

7.1.4. Adaptation Fund (AF)

7.1.5. Tropical Forest Account (TFA)

7.1.6. Earth Fund

7.1.7. Small Grants Programme (SGP)

7.2 Regional Platforms and Bodies

7.2.1. Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)

7.2.2. Pacific Island Forum (PIF)

7.2.3. Micronesia Conservation Trust (MCT)

7.3 Multilateral Development Banks

7.3.1. Asian Development Bank

7.2.3. World Bank

7.4 Bilateral Donors

7.4.1 Australia

Pacific Island Country CCA Assessment Page iv

7.4.2. Canada

7.4.3. Italy

7.4.4. Japan

7.4.5. European Union

7.4.6. Germany

7.4.7. New Zealand

7.4.8. Spain

7.4.9. Taiwan/ROC

7.4.10 United Kingdom

7.5 USAID Initiatives

7.5.1. Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA)

7.5.2. Opportunities to support or expand

7.5.3. Coral Triangle Initiative (CTI)

7.5.4. Investing in People: HIV/AIDS (PNG)

7.6 Other USG Agency Programs Which Merit USAID Support

8. REFERENCES

Glossary APRCCAA Asia-Pacific Regional Climate Change Adaptation Assessment AREFS Asia Regional Environmental Field Support CCA Climate change adaptation CO2 Carbon dioxide FSM Federated States of Micronesia GCC Global Climate Change GHG greenhouse gas (for example, carbon dioxide or methane) IFCCC Intergovernmental Framework Convention on Climate Change IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IRG International Resources Group NAPA National Adaptation Programme of Action MDB multilateral development bank MDG Millennium Development Goals NGO non-governmental organization PICs Pacific Island Countries RAMSAR The Convention on Wetlands of International Importance RDMA Regional Development Mission for Asia RMI Republic of the Marshall Islands RoP Republic of Palau SLR Sea Level Rise USAID United States Agency for International Development UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change V&A vulnerability and adaptation VA vulnerability assessment

Glossary to be completed for Final Report draft

Pacific Island Country CCA Assessment Page vi

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Pacific Island Countries (PICs) are highly diverse politically, geographically, socially, economically and culturally. Even within some countries, populations are highly diverse. All PICs are confronted with issues related to development, governance, conservation and maintaining their traditions and cultures. Climate change adds an additional stressor to these challenges, often bringing them near the tipping point in maintaining a toe hold on fragile island and ecosystems. All PICs are highly vulnerable to natural disasters (storms, tsunamis, volcanos, landslides, flooding and earthquakes) and large portions of their lands and populations are highly exposed to these dangers.

Moreover, climate change impacts such as sea level rise and ocean acidification may make some islands uninhabitable or greatly threaten the quality of life. The PICs governments and peoples have taken steps to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) despite their relatively small contribution to global warming. It is incumbent upon the developing nations to undertake sustainable and feasible actions to assist the people of the Pacific Islands to adapt to the numerous threats imposed by global climate change. Moreover, experiences gained hand-in-hand with the PICs can benefit U.S. effort to manage adaptation in its own tropical and island states and territories. This report aims to identify gaps, opportunities and strategies to provide support for climate change adaptation in the region.

Assessment Objectives and Methods The objective of this assessment is to provide an updated and objective review, analysis and synthesis to identify opportunities and gaps to address climate change adaptation needs for the PICs. The assessment can be used to inform activities by the new USAID office located in Papua New Guinea and USAID/RMDA.

Geographic Scope and Methods Twelve countries were considered in this assessment: Kiribati, Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), Fiji, Nauru, Papua New Guinea (PNG), Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), Republic of Palau (ROP), Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu and Vanuatu. Countries which are associated with New Zealand and France were not considered. The assessment was conducted as a desktop study utilizing extensive source of available information including scientific publications, policy documents, assessments, consultation reports and other sources of information. An online survey was also designed and conducted to elicit the opinions and perspectives of key stakeholders in the PICs and from institutions working in the region.

Findings and Recommendations Extensive regional and country assessments and consultations have been conducted by regional, national and donor groups. CCA has also been integrated into policy and action plans at multiple levels. A review of the outcomes of consultation as well as regional documents suggests the following areas are priorities to address, both regionally and at the country and community levels.

While a high level of effort has been exerted by practitioners to understand the complexities that hinder progress and to take positive action, significant gaps exist in each area that present opportunities for USAID support. Priorities, gaps and possible approaches are as follows.

Pacific Island Country CCA Assessment Page vii

Water resources are critical to survival on all islands. Seasonal shortages, periodic droughts and added climate change impacts are stressing already critical supplies, services, distribution and usage. Planning for shortages, strengthening the ability of water suppliers to manage distribution and reducing waste, and increasing catchment capacity at all levels are priorities to assure sufficient supplies and universal access. Issues also exist with contamination and waste water treatment.

Approaches: Both public and private water suppliers require support to plan for routine and emergency measures to monitor, plan for and assure water supplies to all types of users, including the poor, the isolated and industry. This includes improving delivery, reducing waste, increasing conservation and re-use, and establishing sustainable financing mechanisms. The same issues and suggested approaches also apply to other utilities and services such as sewage, solid waste and

Food security has always been fragile for island populations and is becoming more problematic due to stress on traditional agriculture, declining fisheries, heavy reliance on imported food, shift in consumption patterns and added stressors such as changing precipitation patterns, droughts, increased temperatures and SLR impacts such as salinization of ground water. Renewed attention and funding for agriculture can be strengthened to revive traditional agriculture while improving production through modern tools such as salt-resistant cultivars, irrigation and improved water use, agriculture extension and services and post-harvest methods. Water supply and quality continues to deteriorate.

Fishing resources and habitat decline also contribute to food insecurity, as these continue to be impacted through over-exploitation, weaknesses in fisheries management and terrestrial impacts.

More emphasis is needed for watershed management and improved fisheries management.

Alternative livelihoods and economic development at all levels is needed to support efforts that contribute to increasing food security.

Approaches: Applied research, extension services and financing are required to maintain and strengthen small scale and traditional agriculture as basic underpinning of local food security.

Modern methods need to be introduced more widely. Climate proofing is needed to assure supplies, infrastructure, distribution and processing services. Reducing dependence on imported sources, promoting local products and nutrition education will help reduce nutrition-related disease and improve overall health. Water for agriculture needs to be assured and impacts related to coastal processes (erosion, saltwater intrusion) reduced. Soil quality is also key. Fisheries resources that contribute to basic food security need improved management. Alternative livelihoods, particularly those related directly or indirectly to food security, can be supported.

Integrated coastal zone management capacity has improved throughout the region, but is insufficient to meet the magnitude and critical nature of the needs. Understanding and adaptive measures are needed to save coastlines and coastal assets from SLR impacts, erosion and unplanned development.

Approaches: existing coastal programs or other inter-institutional mechanisms at the national level are ideal entry points to mainstream CCA and to integrate CAA and DRR into policies, regulations and implementation. Capacity building in integrated approaches and planning is also needed.

Pacific Island Country CCA Assessment Page viii

Urbanization is a reality for PICs and is accelerating. Urban and regional management capacity is relatively weak. Moreover, capacity to manage the built environment and climate proof infrastructure is insufficient in light of the increasing needs.

Approaches: More emphasis on planning and management for human settlements and infrastructure can address critical issues for growing segment of the population and assist in reducing risk for key coastal assets. This should include for integrating climate change into development projects and for conducting vulnerability assessments of infrastructure.

Disaster risk management is steadily improving on a regional basis, but gaps exist in implementation, principally in the areas of integration with CCA and in implementing measures that adequately assure public safety and impacts on the productive sectors. Planning for recovery is still weak.

Approaches: Detailed risk mapping for planning and development purposes can be expanded.

Improving the capacity for disaster warning procedures and systems, particularly for remote areas can help build out existing systems. Improving the capacity and support for institutional mechanisms for integrated coastal zone management and planning will contribute to the overall safety of coastal populations and assets. Increase planning efforts as part of disaster recovery to include the principle of “build back better” are needed before disasters occur.

Tourism and health are sectors that lag in mainstreaming CCA despite their importance in economic development and assuring community adaptive capacity.

Approaches: The tourism sector can be strengthened in terms of integrating CCA and DRR measures. Best practices to incorporate CAA and to avoid increasing impacts on coastal resources can be developed and implemented within the sector. The health sector issues can be approached by strengthening programs that address both communicable and non-communicable disease.

Forestry management and restoration efforts have largely focused on the high Melanesian islands.

Gaps still exist elsewhere for integrated watershed approaches, restoring forests to protect watersheds, coastal ecosystems and populations, and utilizing forestry strategies to realize their full potential.

Approaches: Forestry efforts can be extended and intensified on a regional basis in order to derive the well-known multiple benefits of restoring and protecting forests. Watershed management efforts require more attention in order to lessen impacts on water resources and coastal/fisheries habitats, reduce erosion and sedimentation and to provide food, fiber and fuel resources. Inclusion of agro-forestry and urban forestry will support food security efforts and providing a much needed cooling effect as temperatures rise.

Applied research and monitoring to improve understanding and predictive ability for GCC impacts for specific local areas, assess local vulnerability and monitoring on-going processes as well as to rigorously evaluate the success of CCA measures.

Approaches: Specific opportunities for targeted, rigorous studies of localized processes and impacts on infrastructure, populations and habitats should be identified and implemented. Support for applied research, assessments and monitoring efforts should include mechanisms to assure that findings are applicable and accessible to practitioners and policy-makers.

Pacific Island Country CCA Assessment Page ix

Environmental Assessment, permitting and enforcement require strengthening in all aspects and lag in the integration of CCA and DRR.

Approaches: CCA and DRR can be integrated into environmental assessment protocols, regulations and permitting processes. Capacity building is needed to both implement measures and also for inspection and enforcement to assure compliance. This is good area to raise awareness and build capacity within the private sector, as well as engaging it for development and implementation of improved practices.

Mainstreaming and no-regrets options for sectors and at community level are current areas of focus for most countries. Support for this level of activity is still insufficient.

Approaches: opportunities exist to provide support for integrating CCA into local level policies and action plans and for technical assistance for implementation. Working with municipalities, communities and NGOs/CBOs with good community partnerships will be critical for success in this area.

Education in technical specialties to support CCA activities. While the educational capacity of the region has increased rapidly, the deficit of professionals in STEM fields impedes progress with development and CCA efforts. This deficit also extends to professions such as planning, management, fiscal management and vocational areas, particularly related to utilities and services.

Approaches: a dual approach of increasing interest and capacity for students, educators and educational institutions at the secondary and post-secondary levels could increase student recruitment into STEM fields to support CCA and DRR efforts. Established mechanisms such as improving teaching capacity, scholarships, interns and support to local schools, colleges and technical training facilities could be effective.

Technical assistance to support implementation is required in most fields, but particularly for implementation. Long-term, resident technical assistance or intensive technical training appears to be most effective in supporting regional professionals than generalized, one-time workshops.

Approaches: Targeted, long-term technical assistance for implementation activities could be highly effective in both building skills and achieving desired outcomes in CCA initiatives, as well as specialized technical training, as opposed to generalized, one-time workshops. Technical assistance is particularly needed at municipal and the community level.

Access to funding, sustainable financing and management still impede immediate and long-term progress for development and CCA activities. Donor funding is still complicated, difficult and time consuming to access and subsequently manage. Sustainable financing and budgetary incentives for CAA are developing slowly. Management and absorptive capacity is still low at many levels.

Approaches: USAID has the opportunity to assure that financial support is facilitated and that procedures are clear, transparent and simple. A small grants program that targets established priorities and provides low-level, multi-year support could facilitate progress towards regional goals. Technical support to develop feasible initiatives and prepare and manage proposals by all institution could improve access to funding. Project management support is still needed by most institutions, as well as training in this area.

Pacific Island Country CCA Assessment Page 1

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background

USAID in Asia is addressing climate change under the President's Global Climate Change (GCC) Initiative by working to reduce emissions, protect forests and promote adaptation.

The Asia Regional Environmental Field Support (AREFS) task order of the PLACE IQC mechanism is part of this initiative. AREFS will help USAID Missions to address a range of climate stressors, including the extreme challenges of glacial melt in the mountains of High Asia, of water resource management in the Mekong River Basin and conservation of the Coral Triangle. Asia's bilateral missions and activities in Nepal, Bangladesh, India, the Maldives, Cambodia, the Philippines, Indonesia and the South Pacific are also embarking on programs to support adaptation. Such programs focus on coastal zone management, water scarcity, agriculture and disaster risk reduction, among other areas. In addition to South and Southeast Asia, the Asia portfolio includes the Central Asian Republics.

The objective of AREFS is to provide a resource for Asia and Middle East Missions to aid them in the planning, implementation of programs and evaluation of climate related activities in the two regions. The task order is a source of short-term technical assistance on topics such as climate change adaptation, climate change integration within the development portfolio, monitoring and evaluation and the impacts of infrastructure development. The task order will provide additional assistance by compiling climate-related statistics, communicating USAID region-wide results and monitoring overall environmental threats, changes and opportunities, some of them related to infrastructure development.

USAID is reopening its assistance program to selected Pacific island nations with a limited portfolio.

One of the programmatic priorities will be climate change assistance. USAID has asked the AREFS Team to assess sectoral priorities, needs and funding opportunities for climate change adaptation (CCA), as well as approaches to vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning, and the potential for synergy and leveraging through collaboration with other partners and their climate related activities.

1.2 Structure of the Report

This report provides information on the research methods used to collect information from written and stakeholder sources on climate change activities and perspectives on priorities for on-the-ground activities, policy reform and capacity building. It then provides a discussion of each country’s current climate, future predicted climate, climate impacts and related non-climate stressors, and inventories relevant country interventions. A gap analysis is conducted along with a list of opportunities for USAID support. Stakeholder perspectives and opinions on possible approaches and mechanisms gathered from the online survey are included. A preliminary prioritization of opportunities is provided by sector.

1.3 Report Methodology and Data Sources

Research for this report included review, synthesis and analysis of existing sources of information including previous assessments and reports, scientific publications, policy documents and related

Pacific Island Country CCA Assessment Page 2 works. An online survey was also designed and executed. Informal interviews and follow-up questions were conducted through email and Skype.

1.3.1 Online survey

An online survey was designed with the purpose of garnering information and perspectives from key stakeholders in the region. Even recent reports and assessment may overlook new initiatives and may be more representative of official government or donor perspectives rather than the views of the “on-the-ground” practitioners. The survey asked the following questions (stated here in a shortened form):

1. The respondents name, official role, institution and contact information.

2. What is your organization’s or your professional in relationship to climate change adaptation activities?

3. Please list the current activities or projects related to climate that your organization supports.

4. Are there any other climate change adaptation projects/initiatives in your country that you are aware of?

5. What bilateral or regional projects/initiatives are currently active in your country?

6. This assessment is designed to identify gaps and opportunities for USAID support. In the area of “potential on-the-ground projects” please list your top 5 priorities for potential USAID support.

7. This assessment is designed to identify gaps and opportunities for USAID support. In the area of “policy reform” please list your top 5 priorities for potential USAID support.

8. This assessment is designed to identify gaps and opportunities for USAID support. In the area of “institutional strengthening” please list your top 5 priorities for potential USAID support.

9. To inform future project design, is there any other information or opinions you’d like to offer.

One-hundred twenty regional stakeholders were identified through online searches and an invitation email was sent to them requesting they take the survey. A request was also made to share the survey link with colleagues as a “snowball” survey approach in order to reach stakeholders who may have been overlooked in the initial search.

There were 50 respondents who completed the survey. The information contained in the responses was integrated into the assessment and the raw responses provided in Appendix 2. Twelve individuals provided information but did not complete the survey.

Table 1 shows the types of respondents and Table 2 presents the number of responses by the institution.

Table 1: Geographic location of survey respondents.

A=Australia, C=Cook Islands, K=Kiribati, FSM=Federated States of Micronesia, F=Fiji, N=Nauru, NZ=New Zealand, P=Palau, PNG=Papua New Guinea, RMI= Marshall Islands, S = Samoa, SI=Solomon Islands, Ton=Tonga, Tuv=Tuvalu, V= Vanuatu, R=Regional (individuals with regional responsibilities).

Pacific Island Country CCA Assessment Page 3

PICs Other Geographic designation

C K FSM F N PNG P RMI S SI Ton Tuv V A NZ R O

Number of responses

2 2 1 3 1 2 4 5 6 3 0 2 3 3 2 8 3

Table 2: Institutional responses.

Institution type

Government NGO Education Regional or

Bilateral

Bank Private Sector

Independent Researcher or consultant

Number of responses

20 9 7 8 1 1 4

2. CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION TRENDS

IN PACIFIC ISLAND STATES

2.1 Trends and Drivers of Climate Change Vulnerability

Numerous non-climate stressors for ecosystems, economies and human welfare already exist in the Pacific. While progress has been made over the recent past, many lingering and seemingly intransigent problems not related to climate continue to exist and grow. Climate change impacts will exacerbate existing problems and create new ones. Unforeseen interactions may also contribute to the magnitude of the issues-impacts can be cumulative or multiplicative. Hence, adopting “not-regrets” options or mainstreaming CCA into existing policies, programs and institutional agenda is potentially an effective strategy and lessens the risk of diverting focus on critical issues or introducing new burdens on key stakeholders and resources.

The general nature of climate change impacts and their expected effects on ecosystems, human populations and infrastructure have been extensively characterized in a general fashion in so much as the current status of the available data and modeling allows. Two major gaps exist that present obstacles to implementing locally-appropriate CCA measures: 1) improved downscale modeling to predict the nature and magnitude of specific climate drivers and their cumulative effects; and 2) V&A studies of specific, well-define areas and scenarios that provide sufficient detail for project design, budgeting and implementation. Some applied research in the form of monitoring the impacts of climate change impacts and the level of success of mitigation or adaptation measures may also be needed in specific circumstances. It is important however, that applied research be carefully designed to answer specific questions in a cost-effective manner, with mechanisms in place to assure its usefulness to the on-the-ground practitioner.

2.1.2 Vulnerability by Ecosystem Type

2.1.2.1 Coastal ecosystems

Given that all the PICS are islands, coastal ecosystems are clearly the outstanding ecosystems that underpin the survival of the island societies and culture. Few other regions are so highly

Pacific Island Country CCA Assessment Page 4 vulnerable to climate change impacts, particularly SLR and storms, as the PICS. Moreover the diversity of PICs populations and what is in many cases, the low capacity for ecosystems management, greatly increases the vulnerability of the PIC coast lines. Habitat types found on the coast include coastal forests, beaches, estuaries, mangroves, sub-tidal areas, and coral reefs.

Biodiversity is generally high in the Pacific region, with biodiversity increasing in a western direction. The Coral Reef Triangle is notable for its high biodiversity and encompasses many of the PICs of concern. The other non-Coral Triangle areas, however, should not be overlooked in terms of their value to biodiversity. Micronesia, for example, has unique ecosystems and a high rate of endemism of both terrestrial and aquatic species.

Coasts provided much of the needs of the original inhabitants of the islands, and in many cases, this high level of dependence continues today. Atoll and outer island populations often continue traditional and subsistence lifestyles. Coasts provide food and revenues in the form of tourism, settlement areas, and transportation routes. The coasts of the PICs are the main sites of accelerating urbanization economic development, leaving the modern economic mainstays highly exposed to climate change impacts.

Coral reefs are perhaps the marine ecosystem of most concern in the Pacific Islands considering their ubiquity and importance for human well-being and for biodiversity conservation. With coral bleaching increasing in both frequency and geographic extent, there is a new sense of urgency.

Immediate reversal of sea temperatures and ocean acidification is not likely, but opportunities exist to focus on non-climate change stressors which may contribute to bleaching, as well as other impacts on corals. Integrated watershed management efforts offer a vehicle to employ proven methods to reduce impacts of all types. Additionally, improved management of near shore fisheries can also be addressed to increase resilience once bleaching occurs.

Other important, but sometimes overlooked, marine and coastal habitats such as seagrasses, inter-tidal zones and estuaries also require prioritization and effort in conjunction with coral and mangrove management.

The capacity for ecosystems management has improved greatly in the last two decades, as evidenced by the proliferation of protected areas and organic initiatives to protect and manage the environment. Both the governmental and NGO sectors demonstrated many successes in habitat, ecosystems management. For example, the Micronesia Challenge, a locally-generated movement to protect 30% of marine areas and 20% of terrestrial areas, coupled with concerted efforts to implement this goal, demonstrate increased awareness and prioritization. Linking climate change to biodiversity conservation management may help lessen some of the outcomes of climate change.

2.1.2.2 Forests and terrestrial ecosystems

Forests are clearly important for the production of food, fuel and fiber, as well as being critical for protecting human populations, watersheds and coast lines. The Pacific Islands host unique terrestrial ecosystems related to forests, including 2 in Micronesia (Carolines Tropical Moist Forests and the Yap Tropical Dry Forests) and 9 in the South Pacific (Cook Islands tropical moist forests; Fiji tropical dry forests; Fiji tropical moist forests; Tuamotu tropical moist forests; Tongan tropical moist forests; Society Islands tropical moist forests; Samoan tropical moist forests; Marquesas tropical moist forests; and Tubuai tropical moist forests). Each of these host numerous and unique plant and animal species. Forests are also important to Pacific Island food security, with many traditionally important food and fiber sources coming from tree crops. Agro-http://www.nationalgeographic.com/wildworld/profiles/terrestrial/oc/oc0103.html http://www.nationalgeographic.com/wildworld/profiles/terrestrial/oc/oc0103.html http://www.nationalgeographic.com/wildworld/profiles/terrestrial/oc/oc0201.html http://www.nationalgeographic.com/wildworld/profiles/terrestrial/oc/oc0105.html http://www.nationalgeographic.com/wildworld/profiles/terrestrial/oc/oc0115.html http://www.nationalgeographic.com/wildworld/profiles/terrestrial/oc/oc0114.html http://www.nationalgeographic.com/wildworld/profiles/terrestrial/oc/oc0114.html http://www.nationalgeographic.com/wildworld/profiles/terrestrial/oc/oc0113.html http://www.nationalgeographic.com/wildworld/profiles/terrestrial/oc/oc0112.html http://www.nationalgeographic.com/wildworld/profiles/terrestrial/oc/oc0112.html http://www.nationalgeographic.com/wildworld/profiles/terrestrial/oc/oc0108.html http://www.nationalgeographic.com/wildworld/profiles/terrestrial/oc/oc0116.html

Pacific Island Country CCA Assessment Page 5 forestry also evolved on most Pacific Islands, providing the basis for much of traditional agriculture, as well as offering new opportunities for economic development. In addition to existing non-climate change stressors as wide-spread clearing and urbanization, forest ecosystems are expected to change as precipitation, evaporation rates and storms also change. Maintaining and expanding all forest types and thinking beyond mangrove restoration, offers multiple benefits in terms of increasing food, fiber and fuel supplies, stabilizing coast lines and slopes, maintaining biodiversity and protecting water sources. Urban forestry also offers unrealized potential to increase the ability of towns and cities to adapt, particularly for their cooling effect to decrease energy consumption and protect heat-sensitive sectors of the population.

2.1.2.3 Freshwater Ecosystems

The Pacific Islands, even the low altitude atolls, have significant areas of freshwater wetlands that provide water reservoirs, agricultural and gathering sites, and recreation. Wetland-based agriculture is particularly important to traditional forms of agriculture such as taro cultivation.

Wetlands also serve to sequester large amounts of carbon. Freshwater wetlands have already been reduced in area due to modern land use practices and due to shifting precipitation patterns.

Relatively little attention has been focused on freshwater ecosystems as compared to marine. For example, only five Pacific Islands’ wetlands have been designated as “important” under the RAMSAR convention. Of these 664,417 ha, 89% are in PNG. Opportunities exist to increase utilization and protection of freshwater ecosystems for both mitigation and multiple forms of adaptation.

2.1.2.4 High Seas resources

The EEZs of the PICS encompass some of the richest fishing grounds on earth and encompass 27,449,000 square kilometers. This area provides about 35% of the world’s tuna as well as other fisheries resource. Deep sea bed mining is still a future economic potential. Most Pacific Islands derive a significant portion of their national revenues from fishing in their EEZ. This activity is predicted to be impacted by fishing trends as well as possible changes in migratory fisheries dynamics related to changes in sea surface temperature, ocean acidification and wind patterns.

Efforts by the PICs under the FFA have led to sub-regional agreement (Parties to Nauru Agreement- PNA) involving the FSM, Kiribati, RMI, Nauru, Palau, PNG, Solomon Islands and Tuvalu which mutually devised new fisheries regulations that are intended to conserve fisheries stocks and increase direct benefits to member countries. The PNA members now regulate 25% of the world’s tuna source. Issues still exist with monitoring, compliance and IUU activities within the EEZ and in international waters. Support to this and other regional fisheries management initiatives can help improve governance as well as increasing the adaptive capacity of entire nations.

2.1.3 Human Drivers of Climate Vulnerability

2.1.3.1 Population growth

In 2011, the population of the PICS is believed to have reached 10 million and is expected to reach 15 million by 2035. Melanesia accounts for 88% of the population with Polynesia (7%) and Micronesia (5%) making up the rest. Growth rate is highly variable within the region, with Guam (2.7%), Solomon Islands (2.7%) and Vanuatu (2.6%) having the highest growth rates. Growth rates are somewhat deceptive in that the fertility rate still exceed 2 children per woman (Solomon Islands tops the list with 4 children/women) in most countries. The net growth rate is believed to be moderated by out-migration. In some cases, islands such as the FSM have decreased in total

Pacific Island Country CCA Assessment Page 6 population. The increase in population means that increased demands on already scarce and expensive commodities and services will only grow. This will increase vulnerability in many ways in the face of climate change impacts, which in turn may further decrease needed supplies of goods and services.

2.1.3.2 Gender

The Pacific Islands are home to a highly diverse population on both a regional and national scale.

PNG alone hosts over 850 indigenous languages. Different segments of the population differ in their vulnerabilities to climate change impacts. For example, women are estimated to be 14 times more likely to suffer death in natural disasters than men. In most PICs, gender equity is still an issue.

Women also tend to be poorer and have less power than men in many cultures in the Pacific, although in some cases, matrilineal land ownership may influence this equation. Women and youth may be more disproportionately affected by change in agriculture, food supplies and health issues, thus incurring a higher level of burden when climate change or disasters affect their communities.

2.1.3.3 Youth

Most PICs have very high proportions of youth. Approximately 20% of the total region's population of 2 million is 15- 24 years old. Many countries have high percentages of their populations with ages under 15 with the Marshall Islands at 42%, Samoa at 38% and Tonga at 38%. Youth of all ages (under 25) are also lagging in gaining employment, have high adolescent pregnancy rates, increasing use of drugs and alcohol, and have other indications of poor well-being. This may be a harbinger of future social conflict as new generations lack jobs, housing and social status.

2.1.3.4 Poverty

Most indicators of poverty demonstrate the Pacific Islands suffer from unemployment, lack of access to basic services and education, and fail to provide educational opportunities. Additionally, most countries have high age dependency ratio, e.g. 85 in Tonga and the Marshall Islands, possibly reflecting the outcomes of immigration and role of remittances. Most of the PICs have medium to low Human Development Indices, although the trend in the last 20 years shows a rise for most countries, as well as an increase for the region as a whole. The factors contributing to poverty make the PICs residents more vulnerable to climate change impacts, primarily through lower adaptive capacity. Moreover, this may be linked to non-climate stressors which exacerbate the impacts of climate change.

2.1.3.5 Conflict

While most Pacific Island nations are relatively peaceful in comparison, conflict does occur. PNG has had a history of civil unrest since 1999. A recent outbreak occurred in November 2011. Fiji has had 3 coups and unrest has been experienced in Tonga and Vanuatu. Crime, including transnational crimes such as drug and human trafficking may be on the increase. Multiple factors appear to be contributing to this including improved transportation, urbanization, and marginalization of different segments of the population, poverty and lack of opportunities. Increasing conflict may undermine efforts to adapt though weakening civil society, reducing productivity, affecting traditional forms of cooperation and general economic costs associated with conflict. Conflict can also be triggered by natural disasters and subsequently increase the magnitude of impacts.

2.1.3.6 Disasters

The Pacific Islands tend to rank relatively high on the World Banks’ Hazard Management Unit’s list of Hotspots. For example, Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands rank within the top 15 countries

Pacific Island Country CCA Assessment Page 7 exposed to multiple hazards in terms of land area (Vanuatu 28.8%, Solomon Islands 7.1%) exposed to hazards and population exposed (20.5% and 4.9% respectively). For countries exposed to 2 hazards, Vanuatu has 80.8% of its land mass exposed and 75.6% of its population; Fiji, Solomon Islands and PNG also rank within the top 60. Nearly all Pacific Islands are exposed to droughts, floods, storms, earthquakes and tsunamis. The low lying atolls, and particularly atoll nations such as the Marshall Islands, Kiribati and Tuvalu are among the most exposed in the world, and at the same time have low adaptive capacity.

2.1.3.7 Urbanization

As in the rest of the world, the Pacific Islands populations are rapidly urbanizing, which coupled with the overall population growth trend, is changing the nature and dynamics of life on Pacific Islands. The percentage of population that lives in urban areas varies between 12.5% (PNG) to 100% (Nauru), with the average being 46% in the region. By 2030, the regional average is predicted to be 55%. Some urban areas also experience a high population density. For example, Ebeye (RMI) has a density of 36,000 inhabitants/ km2 while that of the Tongoa-Futuna urban area (Port Vila) is 31,000 km2, as compared to 6,040 /km2 for Hong Kong. Some nations are essentially one single urban area (e.g. Marshall Island-71.8%; Palau-82.7% and Cook Islands-76.3%) which also affects the portion of the population remaining in remote areas. Clearly this increases the need for housing, sewage, water, utilities, solid waste management, hence the need for climate proofing in these areas. This naturally requires a greater capacity for urban and environmental planning and management. It also potentially puts larger proportion of the population at risk from disasters, disease, conflict and crime. Land tenure issues are also made more acute. Hence, CCA initiatives must take into account the changing nature of the Pacific Islands.

2.1.3.8 Health

Although great strides have been made in improving health indicators in the Pacific Islands, serious health problems still exist, and some may be worsening. The incidence of most communicable diseases have been reduced, but considerable efforts are still required to address water borne diseases of all types, in particular. All water borne diseases are liable to increase as precipitation patterns change. HIV/AIDS, while still relatively less of an issue than for other regions, is a serious concern in much of the region, even if in the context of preventing further introduction and spread.

Non-communicable diseases, particularly those related to food security and life style changes appear to be increasing in many areas. Diseases related to food security and food quality are of particular concern. While malnutrition is still an issue, particularly with children, over reliance on poor quality imported foods and the loss of traditional agriculture and food consumption/activity patterns have made obesity, diabetes type 2, cardiovascular disease, hypertension and similar disease a genuine threats to the adaptive capacity of entire populations. Climate change impacts will directly affect the incidence of nearly all types of health issues. Economic costs incurred by climate change will make meeting new health care costs difficult. Health issues also impact other nations where Pacific Islands seek health care; New Zealand, Australia, Guam, and the U.S.

(particularly Hawaii) struggle to meet health care needs of island immigrants. In some cases, care has been denied. Given that health is a basic constituent of community resilience, any effort which reduces health impacts can have a multiplicative effect on CCA.

2.2 Impacts of Increased Global Warming on Vulnerability

The fourth IPPC (2007) stressed the extreme vulnerability of the PICS, while highlighting the need for more specific information on climatic drivers and trends for small islands. The Australian CSIRO report, “Climate change in the Pacific: scientific assessment and new research” (2011) provides the

Pacific Island Country CCA Assessment Page 8 most recent observations and modeling effort for the Pacific Islands with reference to detecting changes in climate and possible impacts. It also makes one of the most intensive efforts at downscale modeling for regional scenarios, although it also notes that there is a need for more down-scale modeling.

The findings in the CSIRO report generally confirm the IPCC general predictions in most cases.

Modeling results tend to confirm previously predicted trends.

While temperatures changes in the PCCSP region may be about 70% of the global average, due to the moderating influence of the ocean, temperatures are predicted to increase by 0.5 to 1.0 °C by 2030 and by 1.0 to 1.5 by 2055. Depending on which model scenario is used, temperatures are predicted to increase by 1.5 to 3.0 by 2090. The incidence of very hot days and nights is also predicted to increase. The lack of cool hours or season is particularly stressful for the elderly and people afflicted with certain ailments. This trend may exacerbate health issues for individuals and institutions, particularly in urban areas, which now house the majority of many country’s inhabitants.

Temperature increases can also impact sensitive habitats, particularly in habitats which represent the extreme temperature tolerances of particular organisms. Coral reef bleaching is clearly correlated with sea surface temperatures, for example. Other habitats such as intertidal reef flats, which are a common source of food for reef gleaners, already required resident organism to adapt to periods of extreme heat during low tide. The altitudinal distribution of plant and animal species may also change as upper slope areas increase in temperature. In some cases, changing temperature regimes may also facilitate the spread of invasive species. This has occurred for example in Hawaii, where avian malaria carrying mosquitos have move to higher areas thus affecting remaining population of endangered native birds.

Changes in rainfall are much more variable depending on which region of the Pacific is considered.

For areas near the SPCZ and the ITCZ, annual mean rainfall is predicted to increase while rest of the region will experience little change. The number of days with light to moderate rain is predicted to increase near the equator with less change elsewhere. The number of days with heavy rain (20-50

mm) will be experienced on a more widespread basis, as well as the number of extreme rainfall events. Fewer droughts are predicted.

While the prediction of fewer droughts in some areas is apparently good news, evaporation, and hence aridity, is expected to increase regionally as the rate of rainfall increase does not match the increase in temperature. This will impact terrestrial and wetland habitats, and potentially reduce the amount of water resources for urban and agricultural uses. The need for a focus on assuring freshwater supplies and water quality still remains. Food security will be impacted from multiple climate stressors; hence adaptation measures are needed in this broad area. Preparation for emergencies is still needed, as well as measure to protect sensitive habitats during droughts.

Humidity and solar radiation are expected to show a less than 5% increase by 2090.

Small decreases in wind surface speed are expected in most areas.

The surface salinity of the ocean is projected to decrease and is correlated with the expected changes in rainfall. Along with intensified warming, this may lead to increased stratification of the ocean. This decreased mixing of ocean layers will reduce the movement of nutrients from deep

Pacific Island Country CCA Assessment Page 9 areas to the surface, hence potentially serious impacts for biological productivity. Fisheries, both near shore and the pelagic, would be impacted by this.

The CSIRO models suggest that SLR in the region will be similar to the global average. The last IPCC Assessment (2007) projected sea level rise at 0.18 to 0.59 m by 2080-2099, with possible additional increases from ice sheet melting (in the range of 10 to 20 cm). SLR is of particular concern to all Pacific Islands, but the low-lying atoll nations of Kiribati, Tuvalu and Marshall Islands, as well as the atoll islands of other nations, would be most vulnerable. It should be noted that the Micronesian Islands lie near the center of the area of the Pacific expected to experience the highest SLR. In general, the issue of how atolls and low islands will adapt to SLR with its adjunct stressors such as storms, has remained inadequately unaddressed.

CSIRO has attempted downscale projections bases on six global climate models. For the south Pacific sub-basins (latitudes 0-35 °S; longitudes 103°E-130°W), the models suggest that hurricanes will decrease while intense storms will increase. This would affect the nations of Tuvalu, Vanuatu, PNG, Tonga and Samoa. In the care of the Northern Pacific Sub-basin (latitudes 0-15 °N; longitudes 130°-180°E), both hurricanes and intense storms would decrease. This would affect the Marshall Islands, FSM and Palau.