SOL-306-13-000034_-_RADP_NW_-_2FBO_-_Attachment_J.16_-_MAIL_Agriculture_Prospects_Report_2012_Jul8th.pdf

AGRICULTURE PROSPECTS REPORT

Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock

General Directorate of Planning and Policy Statistics and Marketing Information Office

Kabul, 8 July 2012

دکرھنی ، اوبولگولو او مالداری وزارت

وزارت زراعــت ،آبيـاری و مالـــــداری

دافغانستان اســــــــــلامی جمھوريت

جمھوری اســــــــــــلامی افغانستان

Islamic Republic of Afghanistan Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock

Abbreviations

APR Agriculture Prospects Report CSO Central Statistics Organization DAIL Department of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock (Provincial Office of MAIL) DAP Di-ammonium Phosphate EU European Union FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FFS Farmer Field School FMD Foot and Mouth Disease GDPP General Directorate of Planning and Policy, MAIL IPM Integrated Pest Management MAIL Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock MY Marketing Year (1 July through 30 June) NDVI Normalized Difference Vegetation Index NRVA National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment PPR peste des petits ruminants RFA Regional Field Assistant (of FAO) USGS United States Geological Survey WFP World Food Program

Acknowledgement

Primary sources of information for this report are 34 DAILs and over 7,850 farmers across 34 provinces.

Very many thanks are due to farmers, projects, agencies and individuals for their help. Thanks are also due to many others who contributed towards field work and/or helped with the writing of this report.

The APR for 2012 was ready for the internal use of MAIL by the 3rd of June. The main findings of the report were presented by GDPP on the 13th of June at a meeting chaired by His Excellency the Minister of MAIL and attended by Heads of General Directorates and National Mangers of various projects in MAIL. In accordance with the directives given by HE, further inputs were provided by the individual directorates of MAIL. The contents of the second version of the APR were discussed further in an ad-hoc meeting held at GDPP on the 24th of June. Additional inputs were received from the attendees of June, 24th meeting by June, 26th and the updated APR was deemed ready for public delivery at the Technical Advisory Team (TAT) Meeting of July, 7th chaired by HE the Minister. MAIL appreciates contributions made by all involved in the extensive consultation process described above.

Cover photo

Perfectly healthy improved irrigated wheat (PBW-154) in Mashakzi Village of Dand District in Kandahar (Photo taken by Mohammad Yousuf Sadiq on May, 17th)

EU-funded project of FAO (DCI-FOOD/2008/020-138/228-825; GCP/AFG/063/EC) provided technical guidance for the conduct of the 2012 agriculture assessment and the production of this report.

Wheat Balance in MY 2012

HIRAT

FARAH

HILMAND

GHOR

NIMROZ KANDAHAR

BADAKHSHAN

GHAZNI

BALKH

FARYAB

ZABUL

BADGHIS

PAKTIKA

BAGHLANSARI PUL

DAI KUNDI

BAMYAN

TAKHARJAWZJAN

URUZGAN

WARDAK

SAMANGAN

KUNDUZ

NURISTAN

KUNAR

KABUL

NANGARHAR

KHOST

PAKTYA

PARWAN

LOGAR

LAGHMAN

PANJ SHER

KAPISA

Legend Surplus 50,000 tonnes or more Surplus from 25,000 to 50,000 tonnes Surplus up to 25,000 tonnes Deficit up to 25,000 tonnes Deficit from 25,000 to 50,000 tonnes Deficit 50,000 tonnes or more¬

CONTENT

Wheat Balance by Province in 2012

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1. INTRODUCTION

2. WEATHER AND CEREAL CROP CONDITION

3. CEREAL AREA, PRODUCTION, REQUIREMENT AND DEFICIT

4. PLANT PROTECTION

4.1. GRAPE VINE DISEASES

4.2. LOCUSTS

4.3. HAIRY TENT CATERPILLAR

4.4. BROWN TAIL MOTH

4.5. SUNN PEST

4.6. COLORADO POTATO BEETLE

4.7. CODLING MOTH

4.8. POMEGRANATE BORER

4.9. MELON FLY

4.10. IPM AND FARMER FIELD SCHOOL (FFS)

4.11. CHALLENGES TO THE IPM

5. LIVESTOCK AND ANIMAL HEALTH

5.1. OVERALL CONDITION

5.2. INTEGRATED DAIRY SCHEMES

5.3. ANIMAL HEALTH

6. ON-FARM IRRIGATION

7. HORTICULTURE

8. NATURAL RESOURCES

9. RESEARCH AND EXTENSION

10. ADVERSE FACTORS

11. REMARKS

11.1. SUPPLY AND PRICE OF WHEAT

11.2. RELIABILITY OF CROP DATA

11.3. NEXT ISSUE OF AGRICULTURE PROSPECTS REPORT

Tables

1. Forecasted area and production of different cereals in 2012

2. Changes in the 2012 wheat area, yield and production compared to 2011 3: Changes in the 2012 wheat area, yield and production compared to 2010

4. Cereal production in Afghanistan (2005-2012)

5. Cereal balance sheet in MY 2012/13 6: Livestock numbers (‘000) in 2003 7: Livestock products in 2012 8: Production of fruits and vegetables, 2012 9: Development of forest nurseries, 2010-12 10: Forests rehabilitation, 2006–2011

Annexes

1. Rainfall amount in the current crop season compared to the Long-Term Average

2. Wheat seed produced by the FAO seed project (2003-2011)

3. MAIL irrigation projects' development, improvement and rehabilitation report

4. Area and Production of wheat in 2012 by province

5. Wheat balance in 2012 by province

6. Production and requirements of various cereals in 2012

7. Adverse conditions of crops and livestock

Annex 7a: Districts in Afghanistan Annex 7b: Adverse conditions of irrigated wheat Annex 7c: Adverse conditions of rainfed wheat Annex 7d: Adverse conditions of other crops Annex 7e: Adverse conditions of livestock

8. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) maps Annex 8a: NDVI difference: Apr 22 - May 07 2012 minus 2011 Annex 8b: NDVI Anomaly: Apr 22 - May 07 2012 minus Average (2000-2009) Annex 8c: NDVI: Apr 22 - May 07, 2012

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Agriculture in Afghanistan

Agriculture sector in Afghanistan contributed 28% to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 2010/11 market price1. The sector’s share in overall employment is 59%.2 The total value of licit export from Afghanistan was US$388.5 million in 2010/11.3 The major export items were carpets and rugs (40% of the total value of the licit export), dried fruits (27%), medicinal plants (10%), wool (8%), fresh fruits (7%), skin (4%) and other items (4%). Hence, the importance of agriculture sector in the national economy and the export earnings is obvious.

Overall performance of agriculture in Afghanistan is very much dependent on cereal production, which accounted for over three-fourth (77%) of the agricultural GDP at 2010/11 market prices. Corresponding shares of horticulture and livestock sub-sector in agriculture GDP were 9% and 14%, respectively.4

Average annual cereal production of Afghanistan (2005 to 2009) is 5.2 million tons. Year to year changes in the production level of cereals are considerable, ranging from 3.6 million tons (in 2008) to 6.3 million tons (2009) in 5 years (2005 to 2009). In 2002, 2004, 2006 and 2008 cereal production dipped considerably down mainly due to prolonged drought followed by dismal failure of rainfed crops. In 2003, 2005, 2007, 2009 and 2010 rich cereal harvest was reaped due to favourable weather conditions.

The highest self-sufficiency in cereal (97%) was achieved in 2009 when there was bumper harvest of cereals (6.33 million tons). In that year the shares of irrigated area and rainfed areas in the total cereal production were 67% and 33%, respectively.

The importance of rainfed agriculture cannot be overemphasised given its one-third share in the overall cereal production. Firstly, among the households engaged in agriculture, about one-third households have access to rainfed land.5 Secondly, households that rely heavily on production from rainfed crops are in the remotest areas and are intensely vulnerable to crop failures. Lastly, irrigated land access to a household is typically estimated at less than 0.8 ha.6 Hence, one of the challenges is to achieve long-term sustained growth in agriculture where the weather should not play a very dominant role in the overall cereal supply.

1 Source: Central Statistics Organization (CSO)

2 Source: NRVA 2007/08

3 Source: Central Statistics Organization (CSO)

4 Source: Central Statistics Organization (CSO)

5 Source: NRVA 2007/08

6 Source: NRVA 2007/08

About this report

This report delivers the findings of the missions commissioned by Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock (MAIL) to 34 provinces to assess the production prospects of cereals, horticulture crops, livestock and forestry. The primary sources for the report are Provincial Offices of MAIL (DAILs) in 34 provinces and over 7,850 farmers in them. However, other sources of information have also been used extensively. The estimates given in the report are preliminary at the time of reporting. Ultimate outcome will come later in the season. The purpose below is to give the main findings of the report:

Agriculture Prospects in 2012

Current year offers bright prospects for cereal crops, horticulture, livestock and forestry.

Overall cereal production in 2012 is forecasted to reach 6.3 million MT, which is the 2nd highest in 35 years. It is virtually on a par with the record level of 6.33 million MT in 2009;

42% up from 2011 and 21% above the average (5.2 million tons).

Wheat production in 2012 is going to be only 2% below the record level of 5.1 million MT in 2009. Compared with 2011, which was a bad agriculture year, increases in the production of various cereals in 2012 is forecasted as follows: wheat 48% (irrigated wheat 14%; rainfed wheat 367%)7; rice 11%; maize 3% and barley 65%.

Amount of cereal required for 2012 is estimated at 6.7 million MT. Given that the domestic production of cereals is 6.3 million MT, cereal deficit in 2012 is estimated at 400,000 MT.

This translates into 94% self-sufficiency in domestic production of cereals (or a considerably narrowed deficit of 6%). Estimated wheat supply situations in MY 2012/13 in various provinces are given below:

7 provinces (Badghis, Faryab, Balkh, Kunduz, Helmand, Takhar and Jawzjan) will have surplus over 50,000 MT

3 provinces (Nangarhar, Samangan and Sari-e-Pul) will have surplus between 25,000 MT and 50,000 MT

3 provinces (Logar, Nimruz and Baghlan) will have surplus less than 25,000 MT 10 provinces (Farah, Kunarha, Wardak, Badakhshan, Ghor, Paktika, Panjshir, Nuristan, Zabul and Uruzgan) will have deficit below 25,000 MT 8 provinces (Daikundi, Herat, Bamyan, Parwan, Kapisa, Khost, Laghman and

Paktya) will have deficit between 25,000 MT and 50,000 MT 3 provinces (Kabul, Kandahar and Ghazni) will have deficit over 50,000 MT

7 2011 was a very bad agriculture year specifically for rainfed wheat

Reasons for the excellent agriculture prospects in 2012

The main reason for the bright agriculture prospects in 2012 is the favorable weather conditions. Rainfall amounts in November, and January to June were good, although December was rather dry. The density and greenness of plant/pasture have been very conducive to favorable growth and development of cereal crops, horticulture and livestock alike. These conditions are likely to be similar in the coming months. Other good reasons for the excellent prospects include:

• Irrigated wheat area up 1%; its yield up 14%

• Rainfed wheat area up 25%; yield up 270%. Rainfed wheat had dismally failed in

• Other cereals (barley, corn and rice) area up 7%; yield up 16%

• Incremental irrigated area from 2010 to 2011 is 28,000 ha

• Distribution of 17,000 MT wheat seed and 18,000 fertilizer (urea and DAP)

• Estimated production increases from 2011 to 2012 in horticulture sub-sector (7%) and livestock sub-sector (5%) will match well with rich cereal harvest

• Relatively lower incidence of pests and diseases

• Effective control of Locust (175,000 ha); Sunn pest (434,000 fruit frees); Melon fly

(12 provinces; on-going) and Brown Tail moth (11,700 fruit trees)

• Provision of basic public services such as (i) Animal health services, (ii) On-farm irrigation (27 projects), (iii) Integrated Dairy Schemes for increased access to regular and dependable raw milk market (5 locations), (iv) Farmer Field Schools (104), (v) Research and extension and (vi) Reforestation.

Impacts and Action Needed in 2012

Cereal production of Afghanistan remains in deficit with the requirement. The deficit is typically narrowed by four means: commercial import, food aid, use of Strategic Grain Reserve (SGR), and uncovered deficit (hunger).

In 2012 wheat import requirement will be less than one-fourth of the estimated imported amount in 2011 (1.8 million MT). Due to higher volume of domestic production, hunger will be alleviated because the amount of “uncovered deficit” will be smaller. Furthermore, compared with 2011, smaller amount will be needed for food-based safety nets such as (i) General Food Distribution; (ii) Food for Work for relief/recovery; (iii) Cash Vouchers; (iv) Food for Training; (v) Mother & Child Nutrition/Health and (vi) SGR.

The year-end-stock of wheat in MY 2012/13 is very likely to be larger compared with MY 2011/12, given that 2011 was a bad agriculture year with dwindling stock.

This year offers a golden opportunity to exploit considerable potential of Afghan agriculture for reaching near self-sufficiency in cereals and for attaining maximum food security. As regards this, good investment in the following areas is a key:

Diversification and intensification of whole farm operations by:

(i) increased dependence on irrigation

(ii) distribution of 30,000 MT of wheat seed and 80,000 MT fertilizers

(iii) animal feed distribution (15,000 MT; to be purchased locally)

(iv) protecting agriculture against diseases and pests

(v) controlling weed as it is one of the main factors behind reduced crop production

(vi) ensuring greater access to agricultural and veterinary extension services and technological knowledge, both public and private

(vii) reducing post-harvest losses

(viii) increased crop areas in the spring

(ix) wider outreach and easier access to markets for horticulture crops

(x) purchasing grains and seed from farmers as preventive measures for price stabilization/incentives

(xi) provision for farm credit

Strengthen agriculture value-chain by stimulating external, public and private investment in:

(i) fruit/vegetable processing factories

(ii) dairy scheme

(iii) flour mills

(iv) seed enterprises

(v) fertilizer production and import

(vi) slaughterhouse

(vii) widening market outreach for fresh and dry fruits exports

(viii) land leasing for:

a. commercial farming

b. other agribusinesses

(ix) storage facilities for grain, fruits and vegetables, in particular

Updated land cover map and the results of provincial crop cuts surveys are needed for bringing increased reliability in agricultural data.

Agriculture Prospects Report 2012

1. Introduction

This report provides preliminary estimates of cereal crop outputs and surplus/deficit for Afghanistan for the Marketing Year (MY) 2012/13. For the production of this report, Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock (MAIL) commissioned agriculture assessment missions to 34 provinces twice. The first mission was fielded in February, 2012 and the second in April/May.

In each province the first mission monitored progress of planting of cereal crops in the current cropping season and collected information on the area intended for planting. The second mission gave sharper focus on the assessment of the production prospects of crops (cereals and horticulture) and livestock. MAIL missions from Kabul visited the following 25 provinces:

North Faryab, Juzjan, Sar-i-Pul, Balkh and Samangan North-East Bughlan, Kunduz, Takhar and Badakhshan West Herat and Badghis West Central Bamyan Central Kabul, Parwan, Panjsher, Kapisa, Logar and Wardak South Paktya, Khost and Ghazni East Nangarhar, Laghman and Kunarha South West Daikunde

For the remaining provinces, FAO Regional Field Assistants (RFA) stationed in Kunzuz (North and North-East), Herat (West), Kandahar (South West) and Jalalabad (East) trained respective staff of Department of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock (DAIL) to do provincial agriculture monitoring/assessment. Accordingly, DAIL staff members undertook the crop assessment in the following provinces:

West Farah (RFA Herat was held responsible for training) West Central Ghor (RFA Herat) South Paktika (RFA Kandahar) East Nooristan (RFA Jalalabad) South West Kandahar, Helmand, Zabul, Nimroz, and Uruzgan (RFA Kandahar)

The MAIL and DAIL missions held in-depth discussions with the provincial and district staff of MAIL. They collected provincial level information and data on planting progress, crop area/production, livestock condition and the adverse factors (e.g. drought, floods, avalanche, frost, pests, diseases, quality of seed, etc.). The missions interviewed over 7,850 farmers (2,730 in February and 5,123 in April/May) from 34 provinces with the purpose of validating the data provided by DAILs. In the case of the second mission, MAIL received the reports and data from the missions, in electronic forms, by the third week of May. These data were quickly processed for analysis, interpretation and report writing.

In each DAIL 3 staff members collect and maintain information on cereal, horticulture and livestock production prospects on a regular basis. When needed MAIL contacts DAILs via Codan communication radios or mobiles. Technical departments of MAIL in Kabul and DAIL provide a wealth of information on current crop and livestock situation. Information and data provided by FAO projects, FAO area offices and units, Ministry of Energy and Water, FEWS NET, USGS (Agro-met project), WFP missions, and FAO missions are also useful for the APR.

Agriculture is the backbone of Afghanistan's licit economy and the engine of the recovery process and further development. Agriculture sector contributed 28% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 2010/11 market price8. The sector’s share in overall employment is 59%.9 The total value of licit export from Afghanistan was US$388.5 million in 2010/11.10 The major export items were carpets and rugs (40% of the total value of the export), dried fruits (27%), medical plant (10%), wool (8%), fresh fruits (7%), skin (4%) and other items (4%).11 Hence, the importance of agriculture sector in overall economy and export earnings is obvious.

Overall performance of agriculture in Afghanistan is very much dependent on cereal production, which accounted for three-fourth of the agricultural GDP at 2010/11 market prices.

Corresponding shares of horticulture and livestock in agriculture GDP were 11% and 14%, respectively.12

This report translates latest data and information into decisive, quantitative data. Most of data presented in the report are primarily based on the provincial assessment reports and the results of the farmers’ survey. However, data from secondary sources have also been used extensively. For example, provincial level data on incremental irrigated areas obtained from the Ministry of Energy and Water were very important data considered. For validation and consistency checks, absolute and relative data provided by DAILs, farmers and others were compared with historical data sets, latest rainfall amount/pattern, and most updated field reports.

2. Weather and Cereal Crop Condition

The country experienced good amount of rainfall in November. December was rather dry, but the accumulated rainfall from January to April was above normal in most parts of the country. The amount and distribution of rainfall in April and May/June 2012 were very much favorable for the growth and development of standing crops and already rich pasture. (Annex 1)

The results of the DAIL reports/feedback as well as farmers’ interviews suggest that both irrigated and rainfed crops are in good conditions. The key factors that contributed towards bright cereal production prospects in 2012 are:

(i) generally adequate and well distributed rainfall/snowfall; good weather conditions for farming; increased water table, favorable spring and good river flows

(ii) incremental areas brought under irrigation in recent years, which translates into about 28,000 ha annually, on average

8 Source: Central Statistics Organization (CSO)

9 Source: NRVA 2007/08

10 Source: Central Statistics Organization (CSO)

11 Source: Central Statistics Organization (CSO)

12 Source: Central Statistics Organization (CSO)

(iii) 33% increase in the production of improved wheat seeds13 (Annex 2);

(iv) increased use of improved seeds/fertilizers; increased distribution of spring seeds

(v) effective and timely control of pests and diseases (Locust, Sunn pest, Brown tail moth, Colorado potato beetle, and Melon fly, in particular)

Latest field reports suggested that weather condition in May/June was highly favorable to the standing crops and that the standing crops are generally in good conditions. Latest satellite imagery confirm that there is rich density and greenness of plant and pasture canopy in 2012.

(Annex 8)

3. Cereal Area, Production, Requirement and Deficit

Cereal harvest in 2012 is going to be very rich. This is good news specifically for people and institutions that have wider agricultural development horizons. To emphasize strongly, overall cereal production in 2012 is forecast to reach 6.32 million tons, which is almost on a par with the record level of 6.33 million tons in 2009 and 21% above the average (2005 to 2009; 5.2 million tons). Production of wheat in 2012 is forecast to reach 5.0 million tons, which is less than 2% below the record level of production of 5.1 million tons in 2009.

Total area planted with cereal crops in 2012 is estimated at 3.14 million hectares. The forecast for cereal production in 2012 is 6.3 million tons, including wheat 5.0 million tons (79%) and barley

13 Details on the quality wheat seed production are shown in Annex 2

Afghanistan Cereal Production 2002-2012

2,690

4,357

2,294

4,265 3,711

4,484

2,623

5,115

4,532

3,388

5,008

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

P ro d u ct io n

'0 t o n s)

Wheat Milled Rice Maize Barley

505,000 tons (8%). In recent years barley and paddy are gaining popularity, slowly but surely.

Paddy and maize will be cultivated later in the year. Anticipating favorable planting/growing conditions for paddy and maize, milled rice and corn production in 2012 are forecasted to reach 500,000 tonnes and 310,000 tons, respectively.

Table 1: Forecasted Area and Production of different Cereals in 2012

(Preliminary estimates)

Crop Area (‘000 ha)

Yield (tons/ha)

Production (‘000 tons)

Irrigated wheat (Winter & Spring) 1,167 3.01 3,510 Rainfed wheat (Winter & Spring) 1,345 1.11 1,498 All wheat 2,512 1.99 5,008 Barley 280 1.80 505 Milled rice (paddy yield) 205 3.64 500 Maize 141 2.20 310 Overall 3,138 2.01 6,323

Compared with 2011, increases in wheat area and yield are estimated at 13% and 31%, respectively. As a result of these increases, rise in the wheat production in 2012 is forecasted to reach almost 50% up on 2011.

Table 2: Changes in the 2012 wheat area, yield and production compared to 2011

2011 2012 % change in Crop

Area

Yield Prod Area Yield Prod

Yield Prod

Irrigated wheat 1,156 2.65 3,067 1,167 3.01 3,510 1.0 13.6 14.4 Rainfed wheat 1,076 0.30 321 1,345 1.11 1,498 25.0 270.0 366.7 All wheat 2,232 1.52 3,388 2,512 1.99 5,008 12.6 30.9 47.8

Table 2 indicates that 2011 was a very bad year for rainfed wheat yield. Compared with the 2010 level, increases in wheat area and yield/production in 2012 are estimated at 0.3% and 10%, respectively.

Table 3: Changes in the 2012 wheat area, yield and production compared to 2010

2010 2012 % change in Crop

Yield Prod Area Yield Prod

Yield Prod

Irrigated wheat 1,151 2.68 3,082 1,167 3.01 3,510 1.4 12.3 13.9 Rainfed wheat 1,353 1.07 1,450 1,345 1.11 1,498 -0.6 3.7 3.3 All wheat 2,504 1.81 4,532 2,512 1.99 5,008 0.3 9.9 10.5

Year to year changes in the production levels of cereals in the last eight years are shown in Table

4. The 2005, 2007, 2009 and 2010 were years with good cereal harvest mainly due to favorable weather conditions. In 2006, 2008 and 2011 cereal production dipped considerably down due to drought.

Table 4: Cereal production in Afghanistan (2005-2012) (‘000 tons)

Harvest Year Crop

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 201214

Irrigated wheat 2,728 2,902 2,878 2,406 3,433 3,082 3,067 3,510 Rainfed wheat 1,537 809 1,606 217 1,682 1,450 321 1,498 All wheat 4,265 3,711 4,484 2,623 5,115 4,532 3,388 5,008 Milled rice 325 361 425 410 432 450 450 500 Maize 315 359 360 280 300 301 301 310 Barley 337 364 370 333 486 305 305 505 Total cereals 5,242 4,795 5,639 3,646 6,333 5,588 4,444 6,323

The total cereal requirement in MY 2012/13 is forecasted to reach 6.77 million tons, of which

5.43 million tons (80%) is wheat’s share. Assuming no difference in “year-end-stocks” between MY 2011/12 and MY 2012/13, net import requirement of cereals in MY 2012/13 is estimated at 442,000 tons, which includes 422,000 tons of wheat and 20,000 tons of milled rice.

Table 5: Cereal Balance Sheet in MY 2012 (‘000 tons)

Requirements Crop

Food Seed Feed Loss Total Domestic production Surplus/

Deficit Irrigated wheat 204 527 3,510 Rainfed wheat 112 225 1,498 All wheat 4,362 316 752 5,430 5,008 -422 Milled rice 463 22 35 520 500 -20 Maize 55 8 200 47 310 310 Barley 27 45 357 76 505 505 Total 4,907 391 557 910 6,765 6,323 -442

Exact details on cereal crop data and wheat balance by province can be found in Annex 4 to Annex 6.

Yield potential in wheat

Typically yield of wheat in irrigated field is 2.7 times more than the yield in rainfed field in a good year. In comparison with local or traditional varieties, the improved wheat varieties are estimated to give up to 30% incremental yield in irrigated areas.

14 Forecast

This year’s agriculture prospects demonstrate that, under favorable weather conditions, Afghan agriculture has the potential to reach near self-sufficiency in cereals and to achieve maximum food security. To achieve self-sufficiency, good rainy year, increased dependence on irrigation, provision of modern inputs, protection against diseases and pests are required. As regards this essential agricultural services are not available or accessible to most farmers. Insufficient outreach of agricultural and veterinary extension services and poor accessibility of markets for input supplies and product sales are other serious constraints specifically to households in remote areas. Large-scale investment in agriculture is needed swiftly to increase the sector's low productivity and to provide basic agricultural services to the farmers.

Some useful indicators15

Gross Domestic Products (GDP) at market price, 2010/11 Share of agriculture sector 28%

OF WHICH

Cereals and tubers 22% Horticulture 2% Livestock 4%

Additional indicators16

Households with Access to land 55% Mean land size All households 0.54 ha Households owning irrigated land 1.34 ha Households with no irrigated land 60% Households with no rainfed land 83% Employment

Agriculture sector’s share in overall employment 59% Unemployment rate 7% Vulnerable employment 91%

Cultivation Manual 8% Animal 52% Tractor 39% Households using fertilizer 62% Households receiving agricultural extension advice 10% Households obtaining vet service 15% Main reason for leaving rainfed land fallow Lack of rain 37% Land not fertile 31% No resources for cultivation 13% Household having some kind of livestock 68%

15 Source: Central Statistics Organization

16 Source: National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment, 2007/08

Bright agriculture prospects in 2012 are the results of:

• Generally favorable weather: November and January to June good, although December was rather dry

• Irrigated wheat area up 1%; its yield up 14%

• Rainfed wheat area up 25%; yield up 270%. Rainfed wheat had failed in 2011

• Other cereal area up 7%; yield up 16%

• Incremental irrigated area of 28,000 ha

• Distribution of 17,000 MT wheat seed and 18,000 fertilizer (urea and DAP)

• Effective control of:

• Locust (175,000 ha)

• Sunn pest (434,000 fruit frees)

• Melon fly (12 provinces; on-going)

• Brown Tail moth (11,700 fruit trees)

• Density and greenness of plant/pasture very conducive to favorable growth and development of all types of crops/livestock (Annex 8)

In this connection, rich cereal harvest will match well with the production growth in horticulture and livestock sub-sectors. Towards this end the contributions made by individual General Directorates of MAIL are described below:

4. Plant protection

MAIL mounted control campaign against major crop pests and diseases such as grape vine diseases, locust, hairy tent caterpillar, codling moth, pomegranate borer, sun pest, Colorado potato beetle and melon fly. The campaign began in line with the weather conditions and cropping calendar. Pesticides and equipment were sent to the provinces according to their needs and based on the incidence and the nature of the pest and disease attacks. The control campaign against locust, hairy tent caterpillar, grape vine-diseases and potato beetle is virtually in the process of completion, whilst campaign against codling moth, pomegranate borer and melon fly is on-stream.

4.1. Grape vine diseases

Lime sulfur spray started on February 20th, 2012 and ended on March 24, 2012. Parwan, Kabul, Ghazni, Logar, Hirat, Kandahar, Zabul and Faryab (8 provinces) were covered by this activity.

Under this 20,000 kg of sulfur was used to prevent vine yards from fungal diseases.

Sulphur dust spray in vineyards covered Kunduz, Takhar, Samangan, Balkh, Jawzjan, Sar-e-pul, Faryab, Hirat, Kabul, Parwan, Kapisa, Logar, Paktia, Ghazni, Zabul, Kandahar and Nangarhar (17 provinces).

4.2. Locusts

The campaign against locust started on April, 3rd and ended on June, 9th in most of the provinces.

The campaign has covered over 175,500 hectares of (mostly) cereal crops in Jawzjan, Sar-e-pul, Balkh, Samangan, Baghlan, Kunduz, Badakhshan, Hirat, Ghor, Kabul and Logar (11 provinces) by end-May. There are no reported cases of the locust in Parwan, Bamyan, Badghis and Panjshir provinces.

4.3. Hairy tent caterpillar

This campaign started on the 13th of April and ended on the 20th June. Kapisa, Nooristan, Parwan, Wardak, Ghazni, Panjshir, Balkh, Baghlan, Bamyan, Takhar, Badakhshan and Samangan (12 provinces) were covered under this.

4.4. Brown tail moth

The campaign against brown tail moth covered 433,753 fruit trees in Samangan, Baghlan, Takhar, Badakhshan, Parwan, Kapisa, Maidan Wardak and Panjshir (8 provinces).

4.5. Sunn pest

This pest is not common this year. The campaign against the pest was planned in Samangan, Balkh, Jawzjan, Faryab, Sar-e-pul, Hirat, Badghis and Helmand (8 provinces). The campaign against this pest was launched in Helmand (1,200 ha) and in Kushk Rubat Sangi district of Hirat province. Biological control of sunn pest is greatly preferred choice.

4.6. Colorado Potato Beetle

The campaign against Colorado potato beetle was planned for one month. Accordingly, the campaign in Baghlan (458 hectares), Takhar (526 hectares), Badakhshan (10 hectares) and Samangan (8 hectares) ended successfully. It is underway in Bamyan. Kunduz has no reported case of common occurrence of this pest this year.

4.7. Codling moth

Kabul, Parwan, Panjshir, Logar, Maidan Wardak, Paktia, Nangarhar, Ghazni, Baghlan, Takhar, Samangan, Kunduz, Bamyan, Badakhshan, Faryab and Bamyan (16 provinces) will be covered under this. By mid-June 11,705 trees of Samangan, Hirat, Parwan, Logar, Maidan Wardak, Paktia and Ghazni (7 provinces) have been treated. The campaign against this pest will last for another one month at least. Necessary campaign against this is yet to be launched in Takhar, Baghlan, Faryab. Kunduz, Kabul, Badakhshan, Panjshir, Bamyan and Nangarhar.

4.8. Pomegranate borer

One-month long control campaign against this pest is planned for Kandahar, Balkh, Kapisa, Farah and Nangarhar (5 provinces).

4.9. Melon fly

Baghlan, Kunduz, Takhar, Badakhshan, Samangan, Balkh, Sar-e-pul, Jawzjan, Faryab, Badghis, Hirat and Ghazni (12 provinces) are covered by this activity. As regards this, mulching17 started in middle of May in these provinces. Bagging18 has been started in Helmand.

MAIL is concerned about a melon disease in Kunduz and other north and northeastern provinces which may cause serious damage to the said crop. MAIL is taking appropriate measures to diagnose and contain the disease.

4.10. IPM and Farmer Field School (FFS)

For successful pest management, the IPM approach using Farmer Field School (FFS)19 has been introduced. In FFS, farmers grow crops together, monitor their growth on a weekly basis, and discuss crop management practices that are most effective. As of May 2012, the participants from Badakshan, Takhar, Kunduz, Baghlan, Samangan, Balkh, Juzjan, Sar-i-Pul, Faryab, Bamyan and Herat (11) have attended FFS. A total of 2,600 households participated in these 104 FFS as the direct beneficiaries, whilst the indirect beneficiaries are estimated to be over 5,200 households.

4.11. Challenges to the IPM

There is a lack of public cooperation for effective implementation of the campaign.

Free distribution of inputs/cash has changed attitude of farmers and service providers.

Lengthy process of procurement.

5. Livestock and animal health

5.1. Overall condition

Latest data on livestock numbers are unavailable. Livestock numbers in Afghanistan in 2003 were as follows:

Table 6: Livestock numbers (‘000) in 200320

Cattle Sheep Goats Donkeys Camels Horses

3,715 8,772 7,281 1,588 175 142

17 A protective covering placed around plants to prevent the evaporation of moisture, the freezing of roots, and the growth of weeds.

18 Covering the plants with cloth or plastic bags, 19 FFS is sponsored by “Promoting Integrated Pest Management”, a MAIL/FAO project funded by the Government of Norway

20 Source: Afghanistan National Livestock Census 2002-2003. Latest data on livestock numbers are unavailable

For most Afghan farmers, animals are the only source for power for cultivation and transport. The preferred animal for draft power is the oxen; however, many farmers are too poor to own oxen.

The next most frequently used animal for draft is donkey.

In 2012 livestock will also be in very good conditions. Feed and chaff will be available well above normal level in MY 2012/13, thanks to the large volume of cereal production. Pastures will be in very good conditions too. As a result, production prospects of livestock number and products are also going to be very attractive in 2012. Compared with the last year production of livestock products in 2012 is estimated to be up 5%. Based on available information from various sources within MAIL and latest field reports, preliminary estimates of the production of various livestock products in 2012 are presented in Table 7.

Table 7: Livestock Products in 2012 (Preliminary Estimates)

Type Unit Production in 201221

Meat Ton 156,900 Beef

Mutton Goat meat

Camel meat Chicken

Other

Ton Ton Ton Ton Ton Ton

61,900 40,900 34,300

3,300 8,800 7,700

Milk22 Ton 2,032,400 Hides No. 796,600 Skins No. 4,647,000 Eggs Ton 25,90023

The main problems in livestock sub-sector are loss of and reduction in animal numbers, declining feed, overgrazing, and the adverse effects of animal diseases. Rangelands are overgrazed and nomadic and semi-sedentary sheepherders are operating with high livestock mortality rate. Some rangelands have been converted into rainfed crop land, leading to soil instability, soil erosion and other problems. Even when rainfall conditions are favorable, productivity improvements in the small ruminant sector (sheep and goats) are hampered by traditional user-rights and grazing practices.

21 Based on the production estimates for 2003 given in Master Plan for Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock, field reports and the growth projections

22 Estimated shares in 2003 were cow’s milk (67%), ewe’s milk (15%), goat’s milk (13%) and camel milk (4%)

23 This is equal to 17 eggs/person/year @57 gm/egg

5.2. Integrated Dairy Schemes

The goal of Integrated Dairy Schemes (IDS) established in Kabul, Kunduz, Mazar and Herat – and to be established in Nangarhar, shortly - is to raise the productive capacity of the national dairy sector for the sustainable development of the schemes. These schemes aim to improve livestock productivity by bringing improvements in feeding, breeding, animal health, housing and cattle management.

The challenges to be responded by the IDS are (a) the need for swift transfer of all technical, financial and managerial functions to MAIL, (b) competition from unregulated imports of dairy products, and (c) volatile security situation.

5.3. Animal health

Animal health care has 60 years’ history in the country. Previously, 166 animal clinics were functioning under the Animal Health Department. In line with the policy shift, MAIL handed over all the clinics, in two phases, to private sector. In totality, 954 animal clinics in the country will be delivering animal health services in 2012.

Poultry Survey of 2011

Horticulture and Livestock Project had established 25,000 small scale layer-units in 19 districts of Afghanistan by 2011, targeting vulnerable, poor and rural female beneficiaries.

The 2011 Poultry Survey, which covered 7,000 layer units from 2009 revealed the following:

92% of the beneficiaries had continued to be engaged in the small enterprise. The distributed birds had already completed their productive cycle; majority of the beneficiaries of 2009 were witnessing third productive cycle in 2011.

Average number of birds owned per beneficiary was 1.2 birds before project the project; 13 after the project. One-fourth of the beneficiaries had more than 15 birds.

All beneficiaries had culled the non-productive hens of the first cycle.

Most of the feed agents had converted their feed shops into full-pledged farm shops enabling them to supply the inputs required by the beneficiaries.

Additional 794 non-beneficiaries had started poultry farming emulating the project’s effort. They were rearing 16 birds on average.

More common diseases found in livestock are FMD, Brucellosis, PPR, Anthrax, Q-Fever, New castle and Hemorrhagic Septicemia. The number of animal deaths due to various diseases and adverse factors in 2011 is estimated at 139,000. (See Annex 7e) Unless effective preventive measures are taken, the number of animals’ death due to diseases and adverse factors is forecast to reach 150,000 in 2012.

6. On-farm irrigation

There is a pressing need for on-farm, low-cost water-efficient technologies. Irrigation Department of MAIL started its activities in 2010. The department is implementing 27 projects in 16 provinces. Precise details on the progress made by these projects are presented in Annex 3.

7. Horticulture

Data on horticulture products are scanty. Based on available information from various sources within MAIL and latest field reports, preliminary estimates of the production of various fruits and vegetables in 2012 are presented in Table 8.

Table 8: Production of Fruits and Vegetables, 2012

(Preliminary Estimates)

Commodity Production (‘000 tons)

All fruits (Afghanistan) 1,401

Almond Walnut

Grape Apple

Apricot Orange

Other citrus Pomogranate

Pear Peach Plum

Melons Water Melons

Other fruits

All vegetables (Afghanistan) 834

Potato Onion

Tomato Carrot

Okra Pumpkin

Others

At the national level horticulture production in 2012 is estimated to be 7% more than the last year. Higher and sustained growth followed by marketable surpluses of fruits and vegetables will enable substantially higher foreign exchange earnings for Afghanistan in 2012.

In the northern region, fruits and vegetables are in good conditions, although there are reported cases of slight damage by the flash floods in few areas. The main fruits for the northern region are melon, water melon, almond and pomegranate. Fruit production in the northern region is expected to be 10% more than the last year. Main fruits in Balkh are melon and water melon.

Grapes are in good conditions but almond suffered damage by frost. Melon flies and aphid have been reported to be serious problem in some areas of this province. In Mazar the farmers, fruits’ and vegetables’ wholesalers are happy to have a better production and marketing prospects than the last year. In Samangan, the main fruits are almond, grape, apricot, pomegranate and walnut.

Aphid in grape has been reported. Little over 300 ha of fruits and vegetables have been destroyed by floods. In Faryab production of fruits is estimated to be 8% more than the last year. The main fruits are apple, grape, apricot and peach. Aphid in grapes has been reported. In Sar-I-Pul fruit production is going to be at least 15% less than the last year. The main fruits are grapes, almond, peach, pistachio and pear. Serious damage due to floods have been reported in fruits (100 ha) and vegetables (over 50 ha).

Fruits and vegetables in the North-East are generally in very good conditions and are expected to be at least 10% more than last year, thanks partly to ample marketing opportunities. The main fruits in North-eastern region are melon, water melon, grape, apple and almond. Some areas with horticulture were damaged by floods in Khinjan and Dushi districts of Baghlan province. Reports of disease in fruits (aphid, anthracnose and melon flies) and vegetables (Colorado beetle in potato and grasshopper) have been reported in Kunduz and Baghlan. Hailstone damaged fruits in Kunduz. Grape production is very good this year especially in Kunduz. Recent rainfalls in Kunduz caused rust and aphid in vegetables.

Area with fruit in the West is estimated to be only slightly higher than last year. Grape production is going to increase by over 20%. Stone fruits (apricot, almond and plum) in some districts have been adversely affected by harsh weather conditions, including frost. The yield reduction in these crops will be 20% compared to the potential yields. As regards vegetables, both area and production have increased by 5% compared to last year and their production prospects are good.

Aphid has been spotted in vegetables and fruits in few areas. Hailstorm of the 26th and 27th of May impacted negatively to some orchards in rainfed areas of Herat (Gulran, Kushk-i-Robat Sangi and Kushk-i-Kuhna districts). In Farah, area under and production of fruits are forecasted to be same as last year. Vegetables have been adversely affected by harsh weather conditions that would cause estimated 10% reduction in their potential yield. In Badghis, area with fruits has increased by about 10% compared with last year but their potential yield will be reduced by about 5% because of the hailstone damage of May, 26th and 27th. Vegetable area is expected to be same as last year but its production will be reduced by 6% because of the afore-mentioned causative factor.

In West Central Region, area with fruits and vegetables shows an increase by a narrow margin only. In Bamyan, area with fruits (apple and apricot, especially) has increased by about 5% than that of last year, thanks mainly to the considerable effort made by Root of Peace (an NGO). Yield of fruits is forecasted to be at the same level as last year. Area with vegetables (potato, cabbage, tomato and carrot, in particular) is at par with the last year but their yield will be reduced due to unfavorable weather condition and aphid. Major problems in vegetable production are short growing season, cut worms, aphids and lack of good quality seed. In Ghor, area planted with fruits has increased by about 15% compared to last year, and yield by 10% compared to last year.

Vegetable area also shows an increase of over 15% and overall vegetable production is likely to increase by over 10%. Hailstone, pest and diseases are the main challenges faced by horticulture crop growers in Ghor this year. These adverse factors will cause reduction in the “potential yield” of such crops by about 15%.

In Central Region, more ideal conditions exist for growing fruits and vegetables. Irrigation is available and widely used for intensified and diversified horticulture. Marketing of fruits and vegetables is easier due to relatively easier access to transportation facilities. Access to extension facilities and good seed is also unrestricted. A sharp (15%) and sustained rise in production of fruits and vegetables is realistically expected.

Paktya in South has good conditions for growing fruits and vegetables. Irrigation is available and widely used for horticulture. Apple gardens have been adversely affected by powdery mildew, causing reduction in yield potential by 5%. Farmers have requested DAIL to help eradicate the disease. In Paktika horticulture this year is good because there was adequate rainfall during the crucial period of flowering. Less damage due to hailstone and less prevalence of pests and disease are other salient features this year. Hence, bumper production of fruits is expected. Horticulture is in good condition in Khost also. DAIL has made plan to control common diseases and insects in horticulture. In Ghazni prospects of horticulture are good as there were timely precipitation of snow and rains. Bumper harvest of fruit is going to be reaped this year. Spring rainfall has also helped a lot in this regard.

In Eastern Region area under and production of fruits have increased specifically for citrus (lemon, orange and Keno), pear, peaches and apricot, especially in the last 5 years. Yield is going to be at least 5% higher than normal this year due to availability of enough water for irrigation and good weather condition. There is no reported case of adverse conditions also. Area cultivated with vegetables has significantly increased compared to last year and before last year because it has potential to generate much higher income compared to other (licit) crops. Last year and this year the price of vegetables was favorable and there are good market outlets for fruits and vegetables within eastern region and outside. In the last two years the price of tomato and onion has gone higher encouraging farmers to increase the area under these crops. Yield of these crops is much better than last year and the year before that. Main vegetables grown in Nangarhar and Laghman are cauliflower, cucumber, onion, tomato, spinach, squash, okra and eggplant.

Cucumber, tomato and onion, in particular, bring in very healthy profit to farmers. If enough water is available for irrigation, substantial increase in the area under vegetables is a profitable venture in the eastern region.

In the South-West overall condition of horticulture, with flowering in the mid or late spring, is very good. Some fruits like plums have been adversely affected by harsh weather in winter, and by early spring. High wind also damaged some fruit trees during flowering. This year supply of irrigation water is reliable and there is no reported case of any serious pests or diseases in fruits and vegetables. Following DAIL’s and donors’ efforts new seedlings are being planted. Since three 3 years the only direction area under horticulture is going is up. Peach, plum and apricot from Kandahar fetch high price in the market for their best quality. Additional cold stores established in the province will help reduce post harvest losses. In Helmand farmers grow fruits primarily for home consumption because of a lack of good market opportunity locally or out side.

DAIL is working with Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRT) and other stakeholders to increase horticulture production. In Zabul fruits and vegetables were badly damaged by hailstone. There is no reported case of other diseases or pests. Irrigation water is enough in Karizes and canals. In Urozgan horticulture has been badly affected by cold weather during flowering stage. Almond are affected by soft scale and grapes have powdering mildew. Other fruits are in normal conditions.

In Nimroz horticulture is yet to revive its lost vigor, especially in Khashrod and Zarang, which have potential to become important areas for fruits. Zarang has great potential for horticulture production particularly after Nahre Lashkari will be rehabilitated. In other parts of the province the farmers have lesser access to irrigation water. They have no sizeable marketable surpluses of fruits and vegetables also because these crops are primarily grown for home consumption. In Urozgan horticulture is badly affected by cold weather during flowering stage. Almond trees are affected by soft scale; grapes have powdering mildew. Other fruit trees are in normal conditions.

Fruit and vegetables are in below normal conditions in Daikunde. Area under fruits is at par with last year but the production is going to be lower because about 50 ha of orchards and 40 ha of vegetable area have been damaged by recent floods.

8. Natural Resources

Afghanistan had 1.34 million hectares of forest and 29.2 million hectares of rangeland.24 The two tables below mirror efforts made by MAIL in the development and rehabilitation of forest nurseries.

Table 9: Development and rehabilitation of forest nurseries, 2010-2012

Activities Unit 2010 2011 2012 Plan Total Nurseries

New nurseries Technical operation in nurseries Rehabilitation of poplar gardens

Jerib

1,204

Management of water Building Check dams Establishing terraces

M3 M

1,700

210,000

1,570

333,300

3,270

543,300

Distribution of saplings Poplar saplings to farmers

Saplings in water-falls Other saplings

Pcs

3,040,131

1,000,000

70,000 3,046,647

111,100 40,011,000

1,000,000

181,100 46,097,778

24 Source: The 1990-93 Land Cover Dataset; latest data are unavailable

Table 10: Forests rehabilitation, 2006–2011

Detail Achievement Pistachio forests (hectare) 1,907 Pinenuts (Jalghoza) forest (hactare) 160

9. Research and Extension

MAIL conducts research trails on cereals, industrial crops, leguminous crops, vegetables, fruits, fodder and experiments in the fields of agronomy, irrigation, soil and crops pests and diseases. Of the current 103 research trails, 52 are conducted in the winter and 51 in spring. Wheat seed of more than 15 varieties are delivered each year. A few new varieties (2-3) of wheat, 3 new varieties of maize and 2 new varieties of mung beans are ready for release after years of adaptation, testing and screening.

10. Adverse Factors

Some provinces were struck by floods. At the national level, net damage caused by the floods to land planted with various crops is estimated at 15,000 ha and the total loss of cereals due to the floods damage is estimated at 20,000 tons. Data on adverse factors affecting crops and livestock production systems are shown in Annex 7. These data are indicative only and should be used with caution.

11. Remarks

11.1. Supply and price of wheat

Wheat harvest in 2011 was very…