Attachment_4_PEA_Framework_.pdf

Annex: PEA Framework for Country, Sector and Issue/Problem-level Data Collection and Analysis

PEA Focus Country-level

Key factors to consider Types of questions to ask, topics to explore and data to collect

Purpose identified

The purpose of the PEA and its scope will shape its methodology, questions, the report, the findings and their uses.

For which purposes will the PEA findings be used (e.g., CDCS)?

Are there issues in USAID’s existing country programme that the PEA is meant to explore?

Are there any particularly poor or good processes or outcomes that the PEA aims to explain?

Are there national structures/ changes that the PEA is meant to analyse?

Gather and read existing PEA reports, reviews, audits etc. to learn others’ explanations for good/poor outcomes, processes, key actors, etc.

Are their limitations on USAID’s programme (e.g., resources, timing, outside agendas, etc.) that will determine how the PEA findings will be used and on how many resources should be spent on the study?

Do those designing the programme agree on the value of PEA, local solutions, and other aspects of the operational theory of change?

Are there well-qualified staff/contractors to do the PEA study, and arrangements for ensuring Mission ownership of the findings?

Foundational Factors

Deeply embedded national and sub-national structures that shape the character and legitimacy of the state, the political system and economic choices. Many are slow to change.

Territorial control

Geostrategic position

Geography

Historical influences

Social and economic structures

Sources of revenue

Natural resource endowments

Economic structures and potential for surplus generation

Political settlement

Economic integration nationally and globally

Structural constraints to growth

Does government administer all of its population and territory, and does it have a monopoly of violence? Can it collect taxes everywhere?

Is the country in a ‘safe neighbourhood’, is it landlocked, is it dependent on outsiders (including aid), and is it vulnerable to attack or external pressures?

Are there natural features that affect national control, equity and unity? Is the country subject to climate stresses, population pressures or other natural restraints?

Past events that influence state formation and legitimacy, power relations and equity, civil society’s capacity, and economic structures.

Cultural and social imperatives Classes, groups, organisations and economic structures and interests that impact policy; the operation of ethnic/caste/ religious groupings and patronage and traditional networks.

The importance of aid and natural resource earnings compared to taxation; transparency and (ab)uses of any formal or ‘unearned’ revenues.

Major resources (e.g., oil, minerals, land, water) available and the level of their exploitation; benefits/damages they bring to which groups, national unity and progress, etc.

Significant economic organisations and processes that contribute to (pre)class and group formations, political/social power, and exploitable revenues.

The nature and stability of the political contract between the state and the elite, and the benefits derived by the elite and the nation.

The nature of the social contract between the state/elite and the citizenry; which groups its benefits and why?

Which economic sectors are vertically/horizontally integrated domestically? How is the national economy integrated into international economy?

What factors drive the main constraints to economic growth, equity, integration and stability?

What socio-cultural features are important determinants of behaviour and change, and what maintains/undermines their influence?

Rules of the Game

Formal and informal institutions (rules and norms) that influence actors’ behaviour, their incentives, relationships and their capacity for collective action.

Key rules-based (formal) or personalised (informal) institutions

Distribution of power between key actors/groups

Rules governing the competition for political power and relations

What legal ‘parchment’ (constitutional, legislative, regulatory) frameworks exist; are they stable and routinized, known and understood; are they implemented fully, equitably, transparently, and predictably; is their implementation and operation resourced (with funding and skilled staff)?

Does the formal framework as implemented reflect international agreements the government has signed (e.g., UN conventions)?

between political actors

Formal and Informal institutions shaping economic activity, tax, wealth and rents

Social networks and their influence; ideological and cultural forces.

Which ‘informal’ norms and (cultural/social) traditions have influence? Are they changing and why/not? How do they affect power distribution, social justice and equity, economic processes, service delivery, governance, etc.?

Are the political executive and powerful actors (e.g., the wealthy, military, MPs, economic or social elite, party officials, senior bureaucrats, traditional and religious leaders et al) constrained by the formal law and/or by informal norms? How?

Are political competition (including elections) and the distribution of power managed lawfully? What norms and rules govern how power is distributed and used?

Are civil society activism, the media, free expression and access to information protected by laws that are fairly implemented?

To whom are powerful actors accountable, how and why?

Do legal reforms promote the interests of certain groups or persons? Can entrepreneurs and workers depend on a fair and predictable rule-of-law?

Are key economic processes (property rights, tax collection, production, lending etc.) managed legally?

Are human rights abuses and corruption punished? Are ‘uncivil’ elements (terrorists and criminals) punished?

Are international relations (including debt, aid, investment, trade, ownership of property, immigration etc.) subject to the rule-of-law?

Here and now Current or recent behaviour of individuals and groups and their response to events (“games within the rules”) that provide opportunities for, or impediments to change.

Key actors/groups; any emerging and disappearing and their effect on decision-making and behaviours.

Current events, e.g., leadership, political or economic changes – and their impact on structures and institutions.

Nature of the political

Key leaders and elite coalitions/groups that make decisions and act on them; the roots and nature of their authority; and any recent changes that affect their power, legitimacy, and status, decisions and actions.

Significant, recent events; how they affect rules and norms, decision making, the distribution of power, stability, dominant ideologies and beliefs, group and class relations, development processes and progress, and foreign (aid) relations.

settlement (among the elite) and of the social contract (between the elite and citizens).

Global or regional forces that affect the private sector and public decision-making.

Domestic and international pressures that impact social, political and economic structures and processes.

Which issues, interests or individuals are key groups organising around? The structure of the groups (e.g., clientelist networks, political parties, CBOs, ethnic assemblies, etc.).

The relationships between government, the elite and society generally; how rents and patronage are created and allocated;

how citizens’ loyalty is obtained/retained by leaders; the impact these have on social and political stability, national economic processes and growth, and on service delivery across the sectors.

Major regional and global events and actors that impact national social, political and economic processes and outcomes.

New pressures (e.g., climate change, HIV/AIDS, refugees) and how they influence existing actors, structures and institutions.

Dynamics What features are in flux and may drive an opening or closing of space for change?

What foreign or domestic drivers of change are acting on society already?

What levels of complexity and uncertainty are there in any potential changes that are identified?

How the interaction of foundational factors, rules of the game and the here and now influence the scope for solving collective action problems

What may change the distribution of economic, political and social power?

What entry points or opportunities are likely to arise or close?

What factors noted above support or undermine coordinated action between multiple stakeholders towards a common goal, and are changes underway that would improve collective action favouring specific or general reform?

Which of the factors identified above are in flux and why? How likely will that impact the key determinants (e.g., leaders, resources, interests, institutions etc.) of national development and reform?

Which governance challenges inhibit reform, how and why?

Are key actors (groups, individuals and classes) emerging or disappearing, and are their relationships changing? How and why? Are changes linked to the economy, politics or other factors? What is the likely outcome of these changes?

Is the space for reform opening or closing? Why? How to assess and what determines the right time and best way to take advantage of opportunities?

Are reform champions, ‘development entrepreneurs’ or elite coalitions for reform identified? What are their interests and motivations? What constrains their action?

Has aid been transformative, which aid modalities work best

PEA Focus Sector-level

Key factors to consider Examples of questions, topics to explore and data to collect

Purpose identified

How will the PEA findings be used and by whom?

What is the recent performance in the sector (indicators) that has led to this study?

What sector or sub-sector is the PEA meant to cover?

Are particular problems or issues to be addressed or excluded?

How well has the sector performed in delivering public goods, and in contributing to growth and poverty reduction?

What are the main achievements and failings in the sector?

By whom and how will the PEA be used?

Collect and read donor/NGO/government/academic reports, PEAs, and audits/reviews about the sector. Interview sector specialists about stakeholders, performance, and outputs.

Profile and current status of the (sub)sector under study – e.g., structure and organisation; funds and aid flows; scale in relation to GDP and national budget; key state actors, staff and their capacities;

other actors and their inputs (e.g., NGOs, CBOs, religious groups, businesses); outputs and performance; legal and policy frameworks;

key institutions and processes, internal/external pressures and influences (e.g., partisan politics, population growth); space and opportunities for reform.

The sector’s contribution to poverty reduction and economic growth.

Do service delivery and performance differ by area/region, why?

Any significant, recent changes in sector performance, and why?

How is performance measured? Are data on inputs/outputs/ processes/performance and staffing accurate?

What constraints and problems undermine good performance? What are their (social/cultural, political, and economic) roots and characteristics? How and why do they persist?

Who are major donors in the sector, their modalities and inputs?

How will the PEA study be used, by whom, and is there a mechanism in place to ensure Mission ‘ownership’ of the findings? Funding availability, Mission capabilities, USAID’s influence, and the capacity of local reform leaders should be assessed when designing programmes from the PEA findings.

Foundational Historically rooted structures Key foundational factors that What impact on the sector have geography, historical legacies, social locally, and why?

Factors that shape the sector, its integration into the state, its outputs, and revenues.

affect the sector.

How do these shape the power and incentives of key actors, sector management, rents, etc?

Who have been the main actors and organisations in the sector, and how have they shaped the sector and its outputs?

What resources does the sector depend on, and are they available and well used?

and economic structures, national integration, state formation, government legitimacy, revenue sources, territorial control, trade links, ownership structures, institutions, legal and regulatory frameworks and other national structural features?

How does each of these affect sector services, processes, outputs, funding levels, and performance?

What is the organisational structure of the sector and the role of different layers of government in operations and service delivery?

Are individuals and specific interest groups identified with the sector?

How and why? What motivates them, why are they influential, and what forms do their actions take? What effect does each have on sector policy, processes and performance?

Are entrepreneurs and businesses, NGOs, CBOs, religious organisations, gender or ethnic groups, and other non-state actors particularly active in the (sub)sector? How and why? Try to gain access to their documents, reports, audits, and studies.

What are the sources of revenue for the sector (e.g., taxes, aid, donations, self-help, fees, etc.)? What percentage of the budget does the sector absorb, and what contribution to GDP does it provide? Are the figures to be trusted? Is funding sufficient and why?

How do the sources of revenue affect the public’s demand for (better) services? (e.g., paying fees might inspire demands for accountability).

Can the sector (or specific sub-sectors) absorb more funding?

What (staff) capacity constraints exist and why? Are sector (financial, management, human resource, etc.) systems operating well and why?

Are there reports of corruption, nepotism, clientelism, criminality, rights abuses, or partisan politics affecting the sector? Are these being addressed, by whom and how? What other problems in the sector have been identified, and what are their cause(s)?

Rules of the Game

Formal and informal institutions that shape behaviours, distribution of power, rents, policy-making, and management of the

What are the formal rules, public policies, laws and regulations governing the sector, and to what extent are they implemented in practice?

What informal norms and beliefs

What formal, legal and regulatory frameworks underpin sector operations? Are laws and rules well implemented? Do they reflect international norms and agreements?

What policies mould sector structures, operations, administration and funding? Is policy implementation predictable and transparent, and do the policies reinforce rules-based behaviour?

sector. effect the sector?

How do formal and informal institutions effect the interests, incentives, capacity and level of influence of key actors in the sector?

What economic institutions (ownership, management, property rights etc) affect the sector and its outputs?

Are policies translated into strategic plans that are funded, and into systems being operated by adequate numbers of skilled personnel?

Why?

What informal (unwritten, traditional or cultural) norms govern behaviours in this sector? Why and how do these retain influence?

Who enforces informal norms (e.g., chiefs, religious leaders), how?

What beliefs and ideologies guide actions? How do they impact sector activities and outputs? Are these ideas changing? How and why?

What interests, motivations, and incentives spur key actors and groups to behave as they do? Are these region-specific and do they change over time? How/why?

What rules govern economic assets and processes (e.g., property ownership, hiring, delivery of services)? Is competition allowed by the rules, and are there monopolies that impact the level and quality of service delivery?

Are there private businesses and entrepreneurs active in the sector/doing what? What legal and normative frameworks regulate their activities, transactions, and outputs? Are these rules applied equitably?

What political institutions govern decision making about sector policies and operations? Are these rules and norms publicly known, transparent, routinized and predictable?

Which key actors make decisions in this sector/why/how? (president, minister, MP, central or district bureaucrats, chiefs, et al?)

Are key actors held to account or not? How/why?

What rents are generated in the sector? Who controls and benefits from them? How are they used?

Is criminality or rights abuse an issue in the sector? Who benefits and how? Is it punished/why?

Does political competition (elections, partisan politics etc.) affect operations or outcomes in the sector?

Here and Now Current and recent events, actors and behaviours that affect the sector and its

How are current events, personalities, political and economic developments affecting the sector context and

Which significant events, actors and trends are currently affecting (sub) sector operations and the delivery of public goods? How/why?

Are political contests affecting the sector, how and why?

Is governance of the sector changing? Are structures and management outcomes. key actors?

Are new actors, networks and issues emerging as other disappear? What influence have they on sector performance, including rents, service provision, management etc?

How does the distribution of power between key actors explain the pattern of winners and losers in the sector?

processes stable or being reformed (how/why and the impact)?

Are there reform processes underway (or hindered), what are their goals, who is driving/blocking reform and why, and will reform affect sector operations and outcomes?

As change happens in the sector, are there distinct winners or losers?

Who, how and why?

Are there new actors (businesses, politicians, ministers, bureaucrats, NGOs et al) affecting the sector’s operations and outputs, how and why? What interests and motives drive their actions? Are old actors and interests being displaced/why?

Are the sector’s funding levels and human-resource capacity changing? What causes that and what is the impact?

Are there natural or man-made crises affecting the sector?

What specific issues are central to sector operations currently?

Are market conditions affecting sector performance?

Are global or regional events having an impact on the sector?

Dynamics Which political, social and economic processes are changing and how are they impacting the sector? Where is change likely to emerge in the sector?

What processes within or outside the sector have the potential to generate significant change?

Are benefits (public goods) being shared equitably and is this changing?

Where do economic rents arise in the sector, how are these captured and shared, and is this changing?

Who are the winners and losers of changing sector policies?

Which actors can influence policy outcomes in their favour, and which actors are marginalised?

How do the winners of public policy achieve and defend their political influence?

What are the key relationships sustaining their position?

What feasible options for policy

What benefits are being generated by the sector (services, rents, influence, votes, etc.) and are these changing in character or quantity?

How are benefits distributed and to whom? Are benefits subject to capture by special interests? Is this changing?

How are rents created and distributed? Does that affect services?

Is the diversion of resources or public goods common, and who benefits? Are there changes in the nature and amount of corruption, nepotism, criminality, and politicisation in sector operations or services? Are there improvements, how and why?

How are policy processes (i.e., making new policy and implementing it) changing, and why?

Which sector actors (ministers, NGOs, MPs et al) are most/least influential in the policy sphere, and why? How do they maintain their influence? What and whose interests do their policy inputs serve? Is this situation changing, and how?

How do the key sector actors and their interests align (or not) with national political, economic, or social forces? Is there a direct link between national-level and sector-level actors, interests and activities?

and institutional reform are there?

What is their likely impact of external and domestic drivers of change?

Explain if/why there are opportunities for reform in the sector, the nature of reform, and the best timing?

Who might best lead reform initiatives and why? What are their goals, motives, advantages, sources of influence, alliances, funding sources, etc.?

What impact can outsiders have on reform in the sector and why?

What is the best role for foreigners in support of sector-change?

PEA Focus Problem/Issue-level

Key factors to consider Examples of questions, topics to explore and data to collect

Purpose identified

The purpose of the issue or problem should be defined, and if there is more than one problem, they should be clearly distinguished and their indicators defined.

What poor process or outcome is this PE study mean to explain?

What data demonstrate poor performance and its cause(s)?

Is this PEA meant to explore previous aid interventions and their effectiveness?

Is there more than one issue or problem under study, and are they clearly differentiated and defined?

Define the problem or issue exactly, and collect and read reports, reviews, audits and other documents that provide details.

Explain any previous or current attempts to address the issue or fix the problem, including domestic reforms and foreign aid programmes.

What assumptions underpinned the previous reform-method(s)? Why were the assumptions valid or not? What processes and resources were used to promote reform? Were any successes registered? Why?

Explain any reluctance or intransigence to address the problem, and its roots.

How does the issue/problem and its causes and consequences relate to events and trends at national and sector levels?

Foundational Factors

How are deep-seated foundational factors affecting the issue or problem under study?

What broad factors (often at national or sector level) affect the problem?

How can the causes of the problem be addressed - through narrow issue-focussed, sector-level and/or nationwide interventions?

Which interests and actors are central to the issue/problem?

Is the state well-established and considered legitimate? Is civil society empowered? How do the state and citizenry and their relationship/interactions affect the problem?

Which national or sector-level ‘foundational factors’ affect this issue/problem, and how? Can they be addressed/how? e.g., geography, geostrategic position and neighbourhood, natural and human resources, historical legacies, state formation, regional or sectarian divisions, etc.

Which key socio-economic structures and constraints to economic growth impact this problem? How does the capacity to generate economic surpluses and ‘unearned’ revenues affect the issue?

Is the state unified and does it have authority over its population and territory? How does state formation impact this issue?

Who are the main actors of concern, and what motivates them? What is their relationship? What actions do they take regarding the issue?

What interest(s) do they have? Who benefits from reform or lack of reform, and how?

Which socio-political features affect the issue and how – e.g., loyalties, clientelist networks, ethnic or sectarian cohorts, party affiliations, regional identities, gender ties?

Who benefits from rents or diversions of resources, how and why?

Who and which interests oppose change(s), and why? How empowered are they, and how do they wield their influence?

Are there domestic stakeholders wanting change? Why? Are they organised, empowered and influential enough to drive reforms?

Why/not?

Are there citizen groups (CBOs, NGOs, religious or traditional organisations, et al) that are organised and empowered, and able/willing to demand and/or make change around this issue?

Does the national political settlement (between the elite and government); the nature of political contestation; and/or the distribution of political power affect the problem? How/why?

Is the government considered legitimate and does that influence the issue?

How functional is the state bureaucracy, and does civil service (in)capacity and/or resource constraints affect the problem?

Rules of the Game

What are the formal rules and laws bearing on the problem under question? To what extent are they adhered to and enforced?

What are the informal norms and ideologies relevant to the problem?

What is the constitutional, legal and regulatory framework of the problem?

Are there any important gaps not covered by legislation?

What are the intended and unintended consequences of legislation?

Are laws and regulations implemented? Why?

What informal rules and belief-systems (including tradition) affect behaviour?

What are their roots? How do they influence and impact the problem?

Is national policy on this issue accurately reflected in legislation and regulations?

How is the issue/problem nested in sector- and national-legal frameworks, and do any narrower formal (‘parchment’) laws and rules specifically address this issue? Do the formal legal frameworks reflect international norms?

Are the laws and regulations properly enforced? Are human/financial resources made available to ensure their proper implementation?

Which gaps in legislation or regulations exist and how do they affect this issue?

Which beliefs, traditions, cultural norms and other informal institutions affect this issue, and how? Where do these originate? Why and how do they remain influential?

Which actors personify and enforce the formal rules and which, the informal norms? Are they competitive or collaborative with regard to addressing this issue?

Are there behaviours around the issue that are based in party politics or political competition, patronage relations, criminality or corruption, rent-seeking, nepotism, social exclusion, or some sort of political arrangement?

Do norms or logics emerging from economic practices – trade, ownership, investment, loans, taxation, etc. – affecting this problem?

Is there evidence of collective action (collaborative and coordinated behaviour by multiple stakeholders aimed at achieving a goal) around this issue? Why/not?

Here and Now Who are the key actors and networks, how are they related, and how do they impact the problem?

What is the nature of political competition and does it affect the problem?

Who are the main stakeholders currently and what are their various interests in this issue?

What influence do they have and what characterises their actions?

Who benefits from the status quo and how?

Which actors are likely to be supportive or opposed to reform?

Does the issue have a high profile in national or local politics, and why? Is it affected by political competition?

How does the government view and react to the issue?

Which recent events and key trends are having an impact on the problem? How/why?

Which actors are central to the issue or problem at the moment?

Which interests do they represent? How do they derive their authority? How did they obtain/retain power?

How do the key actors use their influence? What influence have they (to do what)? Are they accountable to any one/group?

Which national- or sector-level actors take an interest in the issue?

How are those interests manifest? What influence have the actors, how do they behave, and what is their goal?

Do politicians influence the issue, how and why? What is their interest? How do they or their followers benefit?

Are major economic actors taking an interest? Who, why? And what is their involvement and their goals?

Are civic actors involved (e.g., religious leaders, chiefs, NGOs et al), how and why?

Has the problem become a partisan-political issue? Is it a campaign issue? How does that affect its resolution?

What is government’s involvement with the issue? Is it promoting reform or not, how and why?

Are donors or other foreigners involved? How/why? What influence have they to drive change?

Dynamics Which actors, networks, or socio-economic and political organisations and processes provide an avenue for change?

What other elements of dynamism, actual or

From which source might change logically emerge?

How is the nature, composition and strength of interest groups changing over time?

How can the influence of groups be expected to change in future and respond to particular events (e.g.

upcoming elections, possible policy initiatives)?

Which events are likely to create conditions within the existing context that are conducive of change? What will oppose this?

What are the likely pathways to change (e.g., economic growth, new leadership, institutionalisation of the law, collective action, etc.)?

Are there actors, reform coalitions or ‘development entrepreneurs’ interested in the issue? Are they empowered to act? Why/how?

Which interests oppose reform, and what benefits do those individuals/groups receive from the status quo? How empowered are they to resist change?

potential, are present in the context that impact the issue/problem being studied?

Are there any recent or current events that impact on the country’s political economy generally or more specifically on the position or interests of particular stakeholders?

Is the relationship between, and the influence of these pro- and anti-reform groups changing, how/why?

Are there likely future opportunities for reform? Why? Timing, actors, and openings?

Can foreigners (including USAID) contribute to changes with regard to this problem? How? What limits foreigners’ influence?

Are there reasons why foreigners are reluctant to invest in reform processes? Are there sufficient USAID resources, and what risks does the agency face by funding reform actors or processes?

Are there events in neighbouring countries, in the region or globally that will hinder or enhance the chances of reform?

What entry points for change are likely to open up (e.g., additional funding, civil society activism, more responsive government, legal reform, policy changes, better-trained civil servants, etc.)? How/why?

What is the potential of collective action among stakeholders?

Is there a credible commitment for reform by the authorities?

Where do uncertainty about fixing the problem and complexity surrounding the issue come from, and how can they be addressed to reduce risk?