Presentation_on_the_Least_Cost_Energy_Plan,_LEDS,_November_2014.pptx

PPTX presentation 824 KB Posted Sep 14, 2017

Attached to: Market Liberalization & Electricity Trade Program (MLET) Federal contract opportunity
Solicitation number: SOL-111-17-000003
Issued by: US Agency for International Development

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7.8 Presentation on the Least Cost Energy Plan, LEDS, November 2014

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Prepared by: USAID/LEDS/Tetra Tech, USAID/SRIE

28 November 2014 Armenia Least Cost Energy Development Program

Content Project Description MARKAL Model Structure Objectives Primary data Macroeconomic development data Technical/technology data Reference scenario Considered sensitivity scenarios Results Conclusions

Project Description

The Project was developed within the scope of the USAID projects “Low Emissions Strategies and Clean Energy Development in E&E” led by Tetra Tech and USAID grant “Support to National and Regional Energy Planning and Capacity Building at the Scientific Research Institute of Energy“.

The MARKAL-Armenia model has been applied therein. The model was developed as a result of four-year research efforts of the SRIE team assisted by the USAID.

MARKAL model structure

Demand Sectors

Industry Commercial Residential Agriculture

National Model

Energy Service Demand Projections

Energy Balance

Planning Horizon & System Settings

Fuel and Market Share Limits Supply Sector Secondary Energy Resources Primary Local & Imported Resources

Transport*

Future Resource Supply and Technologies

Start with an initial energy balance along with the complete suite of existing power plants and an estimate of the current device stock.

Future resource supply and technology options are assembled by the model to meet demand projections at least cost Reflects anticipated economic and demographic activity, and environmental and policy constraints.

Selection of least-cost generation capacities till 2036, considering the following:

The principles specified in the officially approved documents, including:

Ensuring reasonable level of energy security and independence of the country Reliable supply of energy carriers to the local market consumers at the lowest price possible Realization of energy efficiency and renewable energy potential Expansion of regional cooperation Generation and consumption technologies available in the market Infrastructural and technological restrictions Sensitivity analysis Objectives

Official documents reflecting the RoA energy strategy:

The RoA Long-term Development Strategy Program for 2014-2025, the GoA, March 27, 2014 Energy Security Concept of the RoA, approved by the RoA President on October 29, 2013 Financial Cooperation Agreement between the GoA and Germany Renewable Energy Roadmap for Armenia, Renewable Resources and Energy Efficiency Fund, May 2011 Sustainable Development Program, approved by the GoA on October 30, 2008 Action Plan of the RoA Ministry of Energy stipulated by the RoA National Security Strategy provisions, the RoA Ministry of Energy, the GoA, November 01, 2007 The RoA Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy National Program, the GoA, January 18, 2007 Energy Sector Development Strategy within the Context of the RoA Economy Development, the GoA, June 23, 2005 Iran-Armenia Electricity-Gas Exchange Inter-State Agreements Memorandum of Partnership between the Ministries of Energy of Armenia, Iran and Georgia, September 29, 2006

Primary Data (Strategic Documents)

Macroeconomic data

Annual growth	2015	2018	2021	2024	2027	2030	2033	2036	Source
GDP	5.70%	5.70%	5.70%	5.70%	3.00%	3.00%	3.00%	3.00%	World Bank
Population	0.175%	0.024%	0.024%	-0.215%	-0.215%	-0.215%	-0.275%	-0.275%	GoA

Residential	203% (3.0%)
Commercial	201% (2.9%)
Industry	245% (3.8%)
Agriculture	173% (2.3%)

Transport

Passenger	161% (2.0%)
Freight	254% (4.0%)

Useful energy demand growth for whole planning period Change in Household conditions during planning period (24 years)

Number of persons per dwelling	-14% (3.76 –> 3.24)
Number of dwellings		+12%

Macroeconomic indicators

Residential 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 20.918733870352703 23.553480827500159 26.274929294900989 29.367893093567574 32.768812497064587 35.019598671988788 37.313661407328041 39.751237755692138 42.373851945520435 Commercial 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 9.816509895504554 11.143412396609953 12.657280071783866 14.376569745591242 16.017323828184004 16.960240817957033 17.859532648037241 18.774035884505139 19.706532765664129 Industry 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 11.274998562051838 13.063411024484983 15.135497060638214 17.53625227310178 20.317809355968468 21.944160108925129 23.700693044680282 25.597828671040908 27.646821611363688 Agriculture 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 1.8047336637239497 1.9789819466194121 2.1700540216911488 2.3795742377045372 2.6093237754212115 2.7285134453313198 2.8531475056797033 2.9834746473744587 3.1197549211202187

Technical/Technological Data

Swap levels	2015	2018	2021	2024	2027	2030	2033	2036
Electricity export (GWh)	1,200	6,000	6,900	6,900	6,900	6,900	6,900	6,900
Natural gas import (mln. cm)	405	2,000	2,300	2,300	2,300	2,300	2,300	2,300

Iran – Armenia Electricity - gas swap

Gas pipeline	Daily maximum capacity, mln. cm	Annual maximum capacity, bln. cm
North-South pipeline	10	3.65
Iran-Armenia pipeline	8	2.30
Total	18	5.95

European gas prices are based on World energy outlook 2013

Russian gas price stated according to Russian-Armenian Intergovernmental Agreement, which assumes 65% Russian wholesale gas price, and 35% CPI-U

Capacities of gas pipelines of RA

Natural Gas Import Prices, $/1000 cub.m European

2012	2015	2018	2021	2024	2027	2030	2033	2036	189	189	189	324	460	471	481	495	508	Russian
2012	2015	2018	2021	2024	2027	2030	2033	2036	189	189	189	243	274	297	315	335	355

Season/Time of day	Day	Night	Peak
Winter	0.047	0.030	0.047
Spring	0.023	0.011	0.023
Summer	0.044	0.023	0.044
Fall	0.047	0.030	0.047

Season	24 hour
Winter	0.053
Spring	0.034
Summer	0.045
Fall	0.055

Import price(EUR/kWh) Export price(EUR/kWh) Armenia-Georgia electricity exchange prices, 2012 Note:

Import prices are growing 2% annually.

Export prices are constant till 2021, afterwards 2% growth for each three years.

Indicator	PWR-1000	CANDU-6	SMR	ANPP life extension
Investment, Million €	4,073.19	1,622.21	1,633.20	227.38
Efficiency	0.342	0.332	0.340	0.300
Fixed O&M cost, Million €/year	54.70	38.46	24.83	25.44
Fresh fuel cost, €/MWh	5.23	2.21	5.88	8.97
Spent fuel cost, €/MWh	1.34	4.05	0.78	0.52
Variable O&M cost, €/MWh	0.51	0.55	0.66	0.43
Total variable O&M cost, €/MWh	1.85	4.60	1.44	0.94
Unit capacity, MW	1028	670	360	385
Specific investment cost per kW, €/kW	3,962.24	2,421.21	4,536.68	590.59
Specific fixed cost per kW, €/kW/year	53.21	57.41	68.97	66.08
Annual maximum generation, GWh/year	8,105	5,282	2,838	2,277
Construction period, years	6	6	4	1

Nuclear technologies

Indicator	Meghri HPP	Loriberd HPP	Shnokh HPP	Small HPPs
Capacity, MW	130	66	70	148
Efficiency	0.88	0.88	0.875	0.9
Specific investment cost, €/kW	0	1,620	1,810	910 (1,137 after 2021)
Specific fixed cost, €/kW/year	28.32	12.52	15.03	18.87 (23.59 after 2021)
Variable cost, €/MWh	0.57	0.433	0.433	0.2
Construction period, years	5	4	4	2
Annual maximum generation, GWh/year	800	212	270	527
Investment, Million €	0	106.9	126.7	134.7 - 168.2

Hydro technologies

Indicator	Geothermal	Solar PV	Wind
Maximum capacity, MW	30	up to 70	up to 200
Specific investment cost per kW, €/kW	2,335	2,037 [1000]	1,960 [1,400]
Specific fixed cost per kW, €/kW/year	194	29	40
Variable O&M cost, €/MWh	1.2	0	0
Annual maximum generation, GWh/year	194	145	527
Investment, Million €	70.1	153.6	392

Alternative technologies

Indicator	Natural gas CCGT
Unit capacity, MW	220/400
Efficiency	0.49
Specific investment cost per kW, €/kW	780
Specific fixed cost per kW, €/kW/year	30
Variable O&M cost, €/MWh	1.53
Annual maximum generation, GWh/year	1,760/3,200
Investment, Million €	171.6/312

Decommissioning of Hrazdan TPP’s 1-4 units in 2019 is planned according to “Action Plan” based on the “Concept of Ensuring Energy Security of RA”. Hrazdan 5 unit will remain in operation.

Thermal technologies

Reference Scenario

SWAP

Electricity import from Georgia

Nuclear

ANPP life time extension through 2026, construction of new nuclear unit in 2027

Reference

Gas price SWAP

International gas price

Forced till 2027 according to agreement, optional after 2027

Up to 2 billion kWh of power flow

CANDU - Excluded from Further Considerations Initial runs of Markal model demonstrate that CANDU 670 MW reactors are the least-cost option in all scenarios where the nuclear technology is selected.

However, the CANDU reactor is excluded from further consideration, since it is deemed technologically inacceptable for Armenia.

Main Results

Indicator	2012	2036	Annual growth (%)	Total growth (%)
Primary energy (ktoe)	3141	6116	2.81%	94.67%
Import (ktoe)	2930	5449	2.62%	85.96%
Primary energy consumption (ktoe)	1932	3534	2.55%	82.88%
Electricity consumption, GWh	5118	8317	2.04%	63.51%
Generation capacity (MW)	2589	3767	1.57%	45.46%
CO2 emissions (Gg)	5194	6919	1.20%	33.21%
GDP energy intensity (toe/€000 GDP)	0.25	0.16	-1.72%	-34.05%
Energy consumption per capita (toe/person)	0.59	1.12	2.71%	90.04%

Reference scenario

Final Energy Consumption Energy final consumption by energy carriers Energy final consumption by sectors

Biofuels 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 Reference 0 28.183142659246652 32.102510210418188 35.969332919343607 54.617975112851923 57.271489646277558 99.001647997324838 116.30323150779795 134.3858224462011 Biomass 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 Reference 11.9420096013757 11.9420096013757 11.9420096013757 11.9420096013757 11.9420096013757 11.9420096013757 11.9420096013757 11.9420096013757 11.9420096013757 Bunker Fuel 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 Reference 31.990255320165222 38.567914208602964 48.059423439776324 59.796030476008411 74.317514151281273 83.450763094413404 93.634908882466505 105.00370202297621 117.6956698273184 Coal 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 Reference 1.8701187035754345 1.4712555828894858 0.84549427977739955 0.56366285318493303 0.28183142659246652 0 0 0 0 Diesel 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 Reference 118.87076357209365 162.65733597649793 207.45659079509858 254.28121044209286 288.2466741503257 311.09890372351805 290.06902481549548 338.06873820726463 386.46253791587958 Electricity 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 Reference 440.03916979149164 462.99171224533563 501.10821849100665 541.82808282977771 589.59850963720112 618.40502519763891 643.17514151281318 672.44261864386397 715.09708853805841 Gas 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 Reference 1115.5676037163516 1209.9644128113846 1301.237192194701 1411.2278774272118 1514.574028517515 1573.7753469153754 1658.4203109699274 1710.4373163916 1763.3428073276143 Gasoline 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 Reference 190.75210776469441 189.41937949318071 211.79870548615875 233.64064104707501 253.83457928300135 266.83226253313887 308.4286703766503 354.64424753397458 404.46869999283399 Heat 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 Reference 10.258186247581726 8.1181781270151898 5.9757816045283993 3.8286082782010493 1.6838233537939729 0 0 0 0 LPG 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 Reference 10.941269196780413 7.2750722491580762 4.1582077431990188 1.0389548353196858 0 0 0 0 0 Oil (HFO, KER, AVF) 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 Reference 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Renewables (SOL, GEO) 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 Reference 0 5.8688910649884091E-5 2.8734669922854571E-2 5.7434605244930576E-2 8.6137648212281065E-2 0.11479652934151752 0.14344946377988477 0.17210804557070841 0.20077216348611118 ktoe

Agriculture 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 Reference 55.222240798681511 61.209964412811296 67.694475626358283 74.857292985263484 82.758126537533556 87.238768539969726 91.922424705629311 96.854474670997476 102.04686044567568 Commercial 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 Reference 239.73584274761717 266.71556153999336 296.31854653760473 331.26751060357253 363.97710122448524 381.4349518737007 397.06704244190149 414.61663860037191 431.20208268647372 Industrial 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 Reference 356.09400749958144 412.75375868145818 477.67147888853253 552.15486346074567 624.75916301571419 674.63441028739555 728.9402144947793 788.40439858470347 855.2556784255637 Residential 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 Reference 632.73685787167051 687.05089975050657 739.18031936542422 793.47650764204889 849.48275740597876 895.1925101736831 913.73403972695655 952.99624430826941 1003.6513666776121 Territories Electricity Demand 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 Reference 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Transportation 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 Reference 648.47978217774414 692.86284636408686 744.04885175903303 802.52215242780926 868.19842843153504 884.37985144139952 973.10898277962099 1056.1369987341452 1141.4531037282943 ktoe

Energy Intensity of GDP In 2036 by energy intensity of GDP Armenia will reach current levels of such countries as Czech Republic, Brazil, Poland, etc.

Reference 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 0.24959437824375066 0.23195281159478576 0.21533973829308359 0.20033674164352275 0.1852436285049594 0.17765065383371387 0.17269266395766045 0.16843421601916106 0.16460356342999577 ktoe/ M 2012Euro

Natural Gas Consumption Transmission capacity of existing gas pipelines is sufficient

Natural Gas Import

Availability of 1000 MW ANNU and Iran-Armenia electricity-gas swap brings to the drastic reduction of gas import from Russia The RoA Energy Sector significantly reduces gas price risks

Generation Capacities by Power Plant

Power plant, MW	2012	2015	2018	2021	2024	2027	2030	2033	2036
Armenian NPP	385	385	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Lifetime extension of existing plant	0	0	385	385	385	0	0	0	0
Geothermal power plant	0	0	0	30	30	30	30	30	30
Hrazdan 5 - CCGT	440	440	440	440	440	440	440	440	440
Hrazdan TPP	370	370	370	0	0	0	0	0	0
Lori Wind Farm	2.6	2.6	2.6	2.6	2.6	2.6	2.6	2.6	2.6
Loriberd HPP	0	0	0	66	66	66	66	66	66
Meghri HPP	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	130	130
New gas-fired power plant 220 MW	0	0	0	220	220	220	220	220	220
New gas-fired power plant 400 MW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
New Small HPPs	0	60	120	148.1	148.1	148.1	148.1	148.1	148.1
New Wind Farms	0	0	50	100	150	200	200	200	200
New NPP VVER 1000, AES-92	0	0	0	0	0	1028	1028	1028	1028
Sevan-Hrazdan HPP cascade	550	550	550	550	550	550	550	550	550
Shnokh HPP	0	0	0	70	70	70	70	70	70
Small HPPs	221.8	221.8	221.8	221.8	221.8	221.8	221.8	221.8	221.8
Solar PV	0	0	20	40	40	40	40	40	40
Vorotan HPP cascade	400	400	400	400	400	400	400	400	400
Yerevan CCGT	220	220	220	220	220	220	220	220	220
Total	2589	2649	2779	2894	2944	3637	3637	3767	3767
El. Import from Georgia (2 billion kWh)	11	125	250	250	250	250	250	250	250

Electricity Generation by Power Plant

Power plant, GWh	2012	2015	2018	2021	2024	2027	2030	2033	2036
Electricity exports	-1696	-1201	-6004	-6905	-6905	-6905	-6905	-6905	-6905
Electricity imports	98	1098	2190	2190	2190	2190	2190	2190	2190
Hrazdan 5 - CCGT	892	299	3276	2833	3307
Hrazdan TPP	722		839
New CCGT 220 MW				1754	1754
Yerevan CCGT	1614	1638	1638	1638	1638	1143	1434	1062	1582
Loriberd HPP				212	212	212	212	212	212
Meghri HPP								720	720
New Small HPPs		220	441	544	544	544	544	544	544
Sevan-Hrazdan HPP cascade	633	472	472	472	472	472	472	472	472
Shnokh HPP				270	270	270	270	270	270
Small HPPs	558	558	558	558	558	558	558	558	558
Vorotan HPP cascade	1119	1119	1119	1119	1119	1119	1119	1119	1119
Armenian NPP	2123	2123
Lifetime extension of ANPP			2123	2123	2123
New NPP PWR 1000						7895	7895	7895	7895
Geothermal power plant				194	194	194	194	194	194
Lori Wind Farm	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
New Wind Farms			132	264	395	527	527	527	527
Solar PV			41	83	83	83	83	83	83
Total	6067	6331	6830	7354	7959	8307	8598	8946	9466

Electricity Generation by Power Plant Type

Power Generation Structure During the period of observation the RoA Energy Sector changed from being mostly thermal (42%) to nuclear (48%)

Electricity Exports under the Swap Agreement Electricity exports to Georgia are not realized due to economic reasons Forced Proposed by model

Electricity exports 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 1696.1539325037584 1200.8046526069388 6003.8843774630304 6904.5017554754004 6904.4739783610676 6904.4739783610676 6904.5017554754004 6904.4462012467357 6904.4739783610676 GWh

Years	CCGT 220	PWR 1000	ANPP lifetime extension	Hydro	Renewables	Total
mln Euro
2014			50.0			50.0
2015			70.0		56.6	126.6
2016			107.4			107.4
2017						0.0
2018				39.2	195.4	234.5
2019	52.0			78.4		130.4
2020	103.3			91.4		194.8
2021	16.6			52.2	249.3	318.1
2022		737.7				737.7
2023		398.9				398.9
2024		1011.5			98.0	1109.5
2025		1229.1				1229.1
2026		820.4				820.4
2027		720.2			98.0	818.2
Total	172.0	4917.7	227.4	261.2	697.2	6275.5

For realization of the Least-Cost Strategy the country should invest € 6,275,500,000 within 13 years including the interest during construction (IDC) Investment requirements

Scenario Options EE promotion – Energy efficiency promotion via Hurdle rates

EE target – Target of final energy consumption reduction by 8 % in 2027

EE & RE

EE promotion

EE target of 8%

Gas price

Electricity imports from Georgia

Nuclear

No life extension of existing ANPP in 2017

No new nuclear unit

SWAP

Optional till 2036

No Swap after 2027

Russian low price

Limit up to 1000 GWh

No imports

RE promotion

Scenario Features

	Scenario
Sensitivity	No Swap after 2027	Flexible swap	No new NPP	No ANPP LTE	Russian gas	Limited imports	No imports	EE & RE Promotion
Reference
Flexible Swap		√
Flex Swap and no ANPP life ext.		√		√
Flex Swap and less import		√				√
Flex Swap and no imports			√				√
No Swap after 2027	√
No Swap after 2027 and no ANPP life ext	√			√
No New NPP			√
No ANPP life extension				√
No New NPP and no ANPP life extension			√	√
No New NPP and flex Swap		√	√
No New NPP, no ANPP Life Ext and flexible swap		√	√	√
Less electricity imports						√
No electricity imports							√
No imports and no ANPP life extension				√			√

Scenario Features

	Scenario
Sensitivity	No Swap after 2027	Flexible swap	No new NPP	No ANPP LTE	Russian gas	Limited imports	No imports	EE & RE Promotion
Russian gas at lower price					√
Russian gas and less imports					√	√
Russian gas with less imports and flex Swap		√			√	√
Russian gas and no swap after 2027	√				√
Russian gas and no imports					√		√
Russian gas and no imports and flex Swap			√		√		√
No ANPP life ext. with Russian gas				√	√
No New NPP with flex Swap and Russian gas		√	√		√
No New NPP, no ANPP Life Ext and Russian Gas			√	√	√
No New NPP, no ANPP Life Ext, flex Swap and Russian gas		√	√	√	√
EE Promotion								√
EE Target								√
EE Target+ Promotion								√
RE Promotion								√

	EU Gas Price
	Total energy system cost, M€	Total electricity production cost, M€	New generation investment requirements, M€	Average generation cost, €/MWh
Reference	33,666	17,850	6,275	56.3
Reference with flexible Swap	33,552	16,089	6,104	54.3
No ANPP Life extension (LTE)	34,229	19,212	6,391	60.6
No New NPP	34,734	21,699	1,742	68.4
No ANPP LTE, No New NPP	35,179	22,584	1,545	71.2
No ANPP LTE, No import	34,951	24,201	6,572	66.0
No New NPP, No import	35,506	26,886	1,944	73.4
No ANPP LTE, No New NPP, No import	35,928	27,573	1,655	75.4
No ANPP LTE, No New NPP, No import, No swap after 2027	36,203	21,123	1,655	69.6
No ANPP LTE, No New NPP, No import, flexible swap	35,732	24,894	1,655	76.0
No import	34,478	22,831	6,690	62.3

Scenario Results

	Russian Gas Price
	Total energy system cost, M€	Total electricity production cost, M€	New generation investment requirements, M€	Average generation cost, €/MWh
Reference	33,666	17,850	6,275	56.3
Reference with Russian gas	33,202	16,971	6,275	52.4
No ANPP LTE	33,617	17,895	6,262	55.4
No New NPP	33,552	18,141	1,669	56.8
No ANPP LTE, No New NPP	33,854	18,420	1,473	57.4
No ANPP LTE, No import	34,004	21,636	6,489	58.6
No New NPP, No import	33,979	21,771	1,841	59.2
No ANPP LTE, No New NPP, No import	34,258	22,284	1,614	60.6

Scenario Results

Capacity Changes Reference vs Scenarios

REFERENCE

CCGT_220

VVER_1000

Capacity Changes Reference vs Scenarios

CCGT_220

VVER_1000

Generation Cost Impacts by Scenarios

Generation cost Reference 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 37.299999999999997 33.5 43.8 57.2 70.7 60.7 62.6 59.2 60.4 No ANPP LTE 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 37.299999999999997 33.5 47.7 64.400000000000006 82.5 63.9 65.7 62.3 63.3 No new NPP 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 37.299999999999997 33.5 43.8 57.2 70.599999999999994 83.8 85.5 82.4 84.7 No import 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 37.299999999999997 35.700000000000003 46.7 61 76.8 69.099999999999994 70.099999999999994 67 68.599999999999994 €/MWh

Generation Cost Impacts by Technologies

Cost of ANPP & TPPs Generation

New Nuclear Unit Development Schedule

Start date Lining up Financing & Investors Selection of Technology & EPC Contractors Tendering & Selection of Suppliers Licensing & Permitting EPC Construction Schedule Commissioning & Startup Testing 2018.5 2018.5 2019.5 2020 2021 2024 Duration Lining up Financing & Investors Selection of Technology & EPC Contractors Tendering & Selection of Suppliers Licensing & Permitting EPC Construction Schedule Commissioning & Startup Testing 1 1 1 1.5 6.5 5 Start date Lining up Financing & Investors Selection of Technology & EPC Contractors Tendering & Selection of Suppliers Licensing & Permitting EPC Construction Schedule Commissioning & Startup Testing 2018.5 2018.5 2019.5 2020 2021 2024 Lining up Financing & Investors Selection of Technology & EPC Contractors Tendering & Selection of Suppliers Licensing & Permitting EPC Construction Schedule Commissioning & Startup Testing 1 1 1 1.5 6.5 5

Conclusions There is no economically justified alternative to the existing ANPP Life Time Extension (LTE). The ANPP’s generating capacity can be replaced with new thermal generation capacity; however, this approach would result in higher overall costs and higher gas price risk;

In case if the ANPP Life Time is not extended and electricity-gas exchange agreements (swap agreements) are maintained the aggregate system costs for the entire period of planning will increase by €563 mil. mainly due to construction and operation of new 400 MW thermal capacities operated on natural gas;

Maintaining swap agreement after 2027 will result in additional cost savings;

Development of new 1000 MW PWR nuclear unit in 2027 is cost-effective in all scenarios, except for scenario “no SWAP after 2027 and Russian gas”. In this case the cost-effective option is construction of SMR-360 MW in 2027;

Conclusions (cont-ed) Development of new HPPs (Shnokh, Loriberd, Meghri and Small HPPs) is cost-effective option in all considered scenarios;

Development of wind and geothermal energy sources is cost-effective in all scenarios. Solar energy can be developed only under stimulus measures.

To cover the current swap requirements there is a need for installation of 220 MW of additional thermal capacity in 2021. Considering the limited import levels from Georgia, additional 440 MW thermal capacities will be required;

Energy Efficiency Promotion demonstrates fuel and economic savings, but does not result in structural changes in the power sector;

Conclusions (cont-ed) To implement the Least Cost-Resource Strategy Armenia will have to invest EUR 6,275,000,000 over the next 13 years, including investments into the new nuclear unit;

To implement the strategy, Armenia will have to make important decisions and implement the identified steps in a timely manner:

ANPP Life Time Extension Implementation of Iran-Armenia Agreement and extension of the Agreement in 1:3 proportion. Construction of 400 kV Armenia-Iran line Reliable power flows with Georgia; construction of a 400 kV line and a B2B converter Construction of new CCGT Promotion of medium-size HPPs Development of alternative energy within a reasonable scope Ensuring consistency in the ANNU development process Otherwise an alternative strategy would have to be implemented and this will result in cost increase;

We recommend to analyze the CANDU suitability to Armenia.

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Microsoft_Excel_Worksheet1.xlsx Sheet1

Project Implementation Schedule

Task Start date Duration End date

Lining up Financing & Investors 2018.5 1.0 2019

Selection of Technology & EPC Contractors 2018.5 1.0 2019

Tendering & Selection of Suppliers 2019.5 1.0 2020

Licensing & Permitting 2020 1.5 2021

EPC Construction Schedule 2021 6.5 2027

Commissioning & Startup Testing 2024 5.0 2027

Task Start date Duration End date

Lining up Financing & Investors 2018 1.0 2019

Selection of Technology & EPC Contractors 2018 1.0 2019

Tendering & Selection of Suppliers 2019 1.0 2020

Licensing & Permitting 2019 1.5 2021

Project Execution 2020.5 6.5 2027

EPC Construction Schedule 2020.5 6.5 2027

Commissioning & Startup Testing 2022 5.0 2027

Project Implementation Schedule

Ծրագրի իրականացման ժամանակացույց

File details come from the government source that posted it. Updated Nov 14, 2017.