Single Source Determination - Spaceflight Emissions Simulation_Redacted.pdf

Version 2.0

SINGLE SOURCE DETERMINATION USING

SIMPLIFIED ACQUISITION PROCEDURES (SAP)

FOR AN ACTION NOT EXCEEDING THE SIMPLIFIED ACQUISITION THRESHOLD

(AUTHORITY: FAR 13.106-1(b)(1))

Identification Number: 145044-25-0024

Project Name: Aerosol Emissions from the Global Space Industry – Future Scenarios of Launch and

Reentry Emissions to Support Modeling and Measurements

1. Agency and contracting activity. Department of Commerce (DOC), National Oceanic and

Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Acquisition and Grants Office (AGO), Western Acquisition Division (WAD) and the NOAA Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR), Climate Program Office (CPO).

2. Description of supplies or services required to meet agency needs (including the estimated value).

As part of the Earth’s Radiation Budget (ERB) Program, the proposed work addresses NOAA research goals to understand the impacts of human-caused aerosol injections by (1) creating an authoritative emissions database with widespread application to assessments of rocket and reentry emissions and (2) developing improved models of direct injections of aerosols into the atmosphere from future spaceflight operations, and (3) supporting analysis of model results and atmosphere measurements obtained during past and future NOAA research campaigns.

The scope of services include:

• Production of current and future inventories of global launches and reentries and associated emissions. The inventory will include gaseous (CO, CO2, OH, H2O, NO, N2O, unburned fuel) and particulate (BC, alumina, and other metallic compounds) emission components from current and proposed future space systems.

• Collaboration with NOAA researchers to formulate detailed descriptions of spaceflight emissions as inputs for global atmosphere models.

• Assist NOAA in the interpretation of global model simulations of the impacts of spaceflight emissions and of the data collected during airborne measurement campaigns that include air influenced by rocket or reentry emissions.

The total estimated value of this project is for a 12-month period of performance commencing on the date of award. The Government anticipates awarding a Firm-Fixed-Price (FFP) purchase order.

3. Identification of the single source or the brand name to be solicited.

The Aerospace Corporation 2310 E. El Segundo Blvd.

El Segundo, CA 90245 POC: Dr. Martin Ross

E-mail: martin.n.ross@aero.org

Identification Number: 145044-25-0024

4. Supporting rationale. Only one source or brand name is reasonably available as detailed below:

□ Other - Only one source is capable – It is essential to award this requirement to the

Aerospace Corporation in order to maintain and utilize an essential research capability.

Aerospace Corporation is a nonprofit corporation that operates the only Federally Funded Research and Development Center (FFRDC) exclusively dedicated to the space enterprise.

It is is a trusted agent that has the capabilities to provide independent and conflict-free analysis without concerns of profit and proprietary data, information, and products.

Aerospace provides technical guidance and advice on all aspects of space missions to military, civil, and commercial customers and as such provides unique capabilities not currently available in industry and cannot be easily duplicated. Specifically, Aerospace’s specialized and unique expertise in leading research concerning the effects of space systems on the stratosphere. Aerospace’s personnel serve as worldwide experts on space industry emissions in the stratosphere, and their contribution to the development and use of a spacecraft emissions inventory is critical to accomplishing the objectives of the NOAA ERB Program. At the direction of Congress in 2020, NOAA is leading a multi-year research initiative called the ERB to conduct fundamental research on the stratosphere, investigate natural and human activities that might alter the reflectivity and radiative balance of the atmosphere, and the potential impact of those activities on the Earth system.

Without Aerospace’s involvement, NOAA researchers will not have access to the expertise needed to develop the spacecraft emissions database and will be unable to carry out its project to investigate the stratospheric climate response to possible future spaceflight scenarios. NOAA does not have the specialized expertise to adequately simulate and explore future impacts without the emissions indices and spaceflight mission scenarios to categorize and describe past events. Furthermore, Aerospace’s personnel have advanced knowledge of this requirement and institutional knowledge as they recently supported NOAA’s Chemical Sciences Laboratory (CSL) in the interpretation of stratospheric aerosol particles collected the PALMS instruments carried by the NASA WB-57F (Murphy et al., 2023). CSL researchers continue to investigate these findings. Aerospace personnel’s institutional knowledge of this ongoing CSL research cannot be replicated.

This requirement also builds on the work completed by Aerospace under a previous NOAA purchase order. The scope of work under the previous purchase order included producing an initial spaceflight launch and reentry database and simulations of the global evolution and radiative impacts of (1) particles produced by reentering space debris, (2) BC and alumina and particles from rocket launches, and (3) possible future impacts of the overall space industry under different growth scenarios. This requirement requires drawing heavily on previous experience and background information that only Aerospace possesses.

In addition to institutional knowledge, Aerospace, as an FFRDC dedicated to the space enterprise, provides expertise across the U.S. Space Force, the intelligence community, and NASA; this expertise and unique reach back capability assures alignment of activity between NOAA and its partners (e.g., Aerospace can inform NOAA of activities that DoD and NASA are conducting that directly impact the mission) and facilitates the capturing and sharing of data, best practices, and lessons learned to support research into the impacts of space systems on the global atmosphere.