Scope or Work_GFA Economic Assessment.pdf

U.S. Strategy to Prevent Conflict and Promote Stability in Coastal Africa

Terms of Reference for an Economic Resilience Assessment for Conflict Prevention and Stability Promotion in Guinea

1. Introduction

In 2019, the United States Congress enacted the Global Fragility Act, which aims to redesign the way the U.S. government provides assistance for stabilization efforts. As mandated by this Act, the Administration developed the Strategy to Prevent Conflict and Promote Stability (SPCPS). The SPCPS outlines a comprehensive approach to prevent violence and advance stability in countries that are vulnerable to conflict. Under the Global Fragility Act, the U.S. government is implementing the SPCPS through 10-year plans that have been developed in consultation with local stakeholders in priority partner countries and regions. These priority countries include Haiti, Libya, Mozambique, Papua New Guinea, and the Coastal West African countries of Benin, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, and Togo. A key component of this strategy involves fostering economic growth through economic resilience projects, which are considered pivotal measures in averting conflict and countering violent extremism in these priority countries by strengthening social cohesion.

2. Context

Economic factors play a pivotal role in either fueling or mitigating the drivers of fragility, conflict, and violence, according to reports from the World Bank. A study conducted by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)1 revealed that the majority of youth who join extremist organizations cite a lack of economic opportunities as their primary motivation for doing so.

Recognizing this link, the Strategy to Prevent Conflict and Promote Stability (SPCPS) emphasizes the importance of fostering economic growth and resilience as a key component of conflict prevention efforts. The Coastal West African nations of Benin, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, and Togo face various economic challenges, such as poverty, unemployment, inequitable distribution of resources, and over-reliance on natural resource extraction, which can exacerbate grievances and create conditions for instability.

Guinea, as one of the priority countries, of the SPCPS has significant natural resource wealth, especially in minerals like bauxite, iron ore, gold and diamonds. However, it remains one of the poorest countries in the world due to sustained political instability, corruption, limited economic opportunities, underdeveloped infrastructure, etc. While the mining sector is a dominant force in Guinea's economy and exports, the wealth generated from it has not translated into broad-based

1 UNDP Journey to extremism in Africa, 2023

Page | 2 economic development for the population (World Bank)2. In the resource-rich Kankan and forest regions, where mining companies operate, there have been recurrent violent protests over the past years.

This social unrest stems from the frustration of local communities linked to an inadequate distribution of economic benefits derived from the mining operations which are taking place in their regions and communities. Despite the industrial-scale extraction of valuable minerals and substantial revenues mining companies and governments generate from it, many residents in these areas still grapple with widespread poverty, lack of job opportunities, and insufficient or lacking public services and infrastructure. As such, the inequitable distribution of these resources in these regions can fuel grievances and make people, especially the youth, more susceptible to joining violent extremist organizations. Additionally, these two regions possess considerable agricultural potential with abundant arable land, favorable climatic conditions, and access to regional markets. However, this potential remains largely untapped due to factors such as lack of infrastructure, outdated farming techniques, and limited investment in the sector. While commercial agriculture, particularly for cash crops such as coffee, palm oil, and fruits, has shown promise, subsistence farming still dominates, trapping many rural households in these regions in poverty - a key driver of fragility and instability.

Overcoming challenges such as poor rural road networks, lack of storage and processing facilities, land tenure issues, and environmental degradation is crucial for Guinea to harness its agricultural potential and turn it into the engine of inclusive economic growth and conflict prevention.

Furthermore, the uncertain political transition following the 2021 coup has exacerbated economic, political and social vulnerabilities in Guinea (World Bank 2023)3. Additionally, Guinea borders with Mali and the broader Sahel region where violent extremist organizations have gained a foothold. This raises concerns about potential spillover effects and recruitment by extremist groups in Guinea, especially in marginalized border communities with lack of economic opportunities.

Another driver of fragility and violent extremism is Guinea's political system that is characterized by ethnic divisions, corruption, and a lack of true democratic representation, fostering fragility and potential for future conflict reports the world bank4. Guinea’s political system has served as a vehicle for ethnicization, with political parties increasingly defined along ethnic lines and promising to redistribute spoils to their ethnic constituencies if elected, marginalizing other groups. There is a personalization of power, with strongman leaders portraying themselves as the only solution, undermining democratic consultation processes. Political parties lack substantive programs beyond getting their leader elected. While there is patience and goodwill among the populace currently, this is driven by pent-up frustrations with self-interested politicians. However, this patience is not infinite, especially among the youth who feel disenfranchised from the political system so far. Hence, the ethnic divisions fostered by the political system, lack of true representation, and exclusion of youth create fragilities that could spark future democratic backsliding or conflict if unaddressed.

In line with the SPCPS objective to prevent conflict and promote stability, USAID/Guinea will undertake a comprehensive economic assessment to guide programming efforts within this

2 World Bank, Risk and Assessment report, Guinea 2023 3 World Bank Guinea Risk and Resilience Assessment, 2023 4 World Bank Guinea Risk and Resilience Assessment, 2023

Page | 3 framework. The assessment will specifically target the Kankan and N’Zerekore regions, with a focus on uncovering the economic risk factors that may drive radicalization and violent extremism. The ultimate goal is to implement economic resilience projects tailored to these two regions' contexts in order to reduce the risk of radicalization or recruitment into violent extremist organizations. These projects may involve promoting inclusive economic growth, diversifying economies away from over-reliance on natural resources, partnering with private sector entities, mining companies to help create sustainable employment opportunities, improving access to markets and economic opportunities, investing in critical infrastructure, and attracting private investment. By addressing the economic drivers that contribute to the vulnerability of these regions to instability and conflict, the envisioned economic resilience project will seek to alleviate poverty, reduce inequalities, and provide viable tools to prevent violence and extremism, thereby fostering stability and social cohesion.

3. Objectives

The objective of this Terms of Reference is to conduct an assessment in the Kankan and N’Zerekore regions focusing on the following tasks/thematic areas:

● Identify the main economic risk factors for social unrest, ethnic tensions, radicalization, and potential violent extremism in these regions

● Gain a comprehensive understanding of the local economy, including key industries, employment rates, and income levels.

● Identify specific groups that are at higher risk due to economic instability, lack of employment opportunities, or poverty.

● Assess disparities in wealth distribution, access to resources, and economic opportunities within and between regions.

● Identify gaps in education and vocational training that could be addressed to improve employment prospects and economic resilience.

● Investigate the extent and impact of the issues listed above on youth, women, and vulnerable populations and how their access to economic livelihoods is being affected.

● Engage with local people and stakeholders to solicit ideas and explore economic opportunities that could address some of the underlying risk factors

● Research applicable and impactful approaches addressing these issues from other regions and countries

● Based on inputs from local communities and stakeholders, propose actionable strategies and interventions to mitigate the identified issues and improve the well-being of the targeted groups. These interventions must be conflict sensitive, specific, inclusive, innovative, market-driven and sustainable.

The overall aim is to identify economic opportunities that can create sustainable livelihoods, empower at-risk communities, promote socio-economic development, and reduce motivations for and drivers of civil unrest, ethnic tensions, radicalization, or joining extremist groups in these regions through economic empowerment and provision of economic opportunities.

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4. Scope of work

The assessment will focus on the Kankan and N’Zerekore regions and shall cover the following key tasks:

● Field research, data collection and stakeholder consultations in the capital and the targeted regions through surveys, interviews, focus groups covering:

A. General public (including women, youth, and other marginalized groups) B. Religious leaders, and Faith Based Organizations.

C. Civil society and community based organizations including the ones focused on economic issues, social cohesion, ethnic issues, and inequality.

D. Youth organizations, especially those focused on youth empowerment and engagement.

E. Workers, workers associations and unemployed individuals F. Government agencies, ministries, and local authorities including the police, security forces, etc.

G. Business owners and operators - formal and informal enterprises (of any size), industry associations H. Financial institutions, investors, donors I. Representatives from the mining sector J. Education institutions, healthcare providers K. Media organizations L. Agricultural cooperatives M. Other relevant stakeholders

● Research/assess and document other countries’ approach and/or successful and applicable interventions to prevent conflict and promote stability through economic empowerment in similar contexts, for illustrative purposes and potentially to serve as a benchmark

● Analyze the role of the mining sector and the distribution of benefits from extractive industries and how/if it connects with social unrest, radicalization, and terrorism

● Value chain analysis of key economic sectors and potential high growth industries in these regions and how/if it connects with social unrest, radicalization, and violent extremism

● Assessment of workforce skills, technical/vocational training needs and job creation initiatives in these regions (from both employer and employee perspective) and how/if it connects with social unrest, radicalization, and terrorism

● Analyze the effectiveness of existing social safety nets programs (if any) in mitigating economic hardship and reducing vulnerability to radicalization. Assess the coverage, accessibility, and adequacy of these programs in the targeted regions.

● Analysis of challenges faced by women, youth and other marginalized communities in accessing economic opportunities and how/if it connects with social unrest, radicalization, and terrorism

● Identification of geographic areas or specific population groups in these regions that face heightened economic hardship or lack of economic opportunities, as this could make them more vulnerable to recruitment by violent extremist organizations - The objective of this

Page | 5 exercise is to pinpoint which areas or population segments are struggling the most economically, with poverty, lack of jobs, economic marginalization, etc and document their situations and provide evidence of the economic challenges they face through data, reports, etc.

● Summary and evaluation of existing major economic initiatives, investments and international assistance programs and their impact on/connection to social unrest, ethnic tensions, radicalization, and terrorism

● Based on the stakeholder interviews and research, recommendations of three to five conflict sensitive, feasible, impactful, innovative, market driven,sustainable, and region-specific interventions to reduce social unrest, ethnic tensions, radicalization, and violent extremism through economic empowerment, increased inclusive economic opportunities, improved livelihoods

5. Methodology

This assessment must be carried out in a participatory manner by deeply engaging key stakeholders through deep and extensive field interviews, consultation workshops, surveys, etc. The field work/interviews should account for 90% of the effort. The assessment should utilize a mixed method approach combining quantitative and qualitative research techniques such as:

● Field visits, observations and primary data collection

● Key informant interviews

● Focus group discussions

● Surveys and questionnaires

● Stakeholder consultation workshops to engage community members in mapping, ranking, and charting exercises aimed at gathering localized insights and prioritize recommendations from their perspectives

● Research on other countries strategies/interventions to prevent conflict and promote stability and social cohesion

The assessment team must incorporate conflict sensitivity principles and research ethics throughout the assessment phases and processes, taking measures to protect participants and researchers and mitigate any unintended risks of harm. This includes, but is not limited to, seeking informed consent, ensuring that sensitivities associated with discussing conflict-related issues are considered from the outset and integrated into the assessment’s design and implementation, ensuring confidentiality, protecting participants' rights and well-being, and sharing the assessment process and results with participants in an accessible form.

6. Timeline

The assessment will be conducted over a 3-month period, commencing in October 2024 and concluding approximately in December 2024. Below is a proposed timeline

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Activities Timeline

Field research, data collection and stakeholder consultations in the capital and the targeted regions through surveys, interviews, focus groups covering

Weeks 1- 4

- General public (including women, youth, and other marginalized groups) Weeks 1- 4

- Religious Leaders; Civil Organizations including the ones focused on economic issues, social cohesion, ethnic issues, and inequality

Weeks 1- 4

- Workers and unemployed individuals Weeks 1- 4

- Government agencies, ministries, and local authorities including the police, security forces, etc.

Weeks 1- 4

- Business owners and operators - formal and informal enterprise (of any size), industry associations

Weeks 1- 4

- Financial institutions, investors, donors Weeks 1- 4

- Former or current members of extremist or radical groups (if applicable/available) Weeks 1- 4

- Other relevant stakeholders highlighted above Weeks 1- 4

Research/assess and document other countries’ approach and/or successful and applicable interventions to prevent conflict and promote stability through economic empowerment in similar contexts, for illustrative purposes and potentially to serve as a benchmark

Weeks 5 - 6

Analyze the role of the mining sector and the distribution of benefits from extractive industries and how/if it connects with social unrest, radicalization, and terrorism

Weeks 5 - 6

Value chain analysis of key economic sectors and potential high growth industries in these regions and how/if it connects with social unrest, radicalization, and violent extremism.

Assessment of workforce skills, technical/vocational training needs and job creation initiatives in these regions (from both employer and employee perspective) and how/if it connects with social unrest, radicalization, and terrorism

Weeks 7- 8

Assessment of workforce skills, technical/vocational training needs and job creation initiatives in these regions (from both employer and employee perspective) and how/if it connects with social unrest, radicalization, and terrorism

Analyze the effectiveness of existing social safety nets programs (if any) in mitigating economic hardship and reducing vulnerability to radicalization. Assess the coverage, accessibility, and adequacy of these programs in the targeted regions

Weeks 7- 8

Analysis of challenges faced by women, youth and other marginalized communities in accessing economic opportunities and how/if it connects with social unrest, radicalization, and terrorism

Weeks 7- 8

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7. Deliverables

The key deliverables of the assessment include:

● Work plan

● Data collection tools, surveys, questionnaires

● Draft assessment report for review and feedback

● Final assessment report with actionable recommendations. The recommendations should outline short-term and medium-term economic opportunities and, at a minimum, describe how each identified opportunity aligns with the SPCPS objectives, potential partners, and the respective roles and responsibilities, including those of USAID.

8. Skills and Competencies

Applicants should possess the following skills and competencies:

● Experience conducting assessments, field research, etc.

● Proven experience conducting economic/private sector assessments in fragile/conflict environments

● Multi-disciplinary team with relevant technical expertise areas required

● Understanding of Guinea’s context

Additionally, the following expertise is desired.

● Security/fragility/conflict economic impact

● Social cohesion/violent extremism

● Private sector development

● Value chain development (e.g. agriculture, fishery, etc.)

Identification of geographic areas or specific population groups in these regions that face heightened economic hardship or lack of economic opportunities, as this could make them more vulnerable to recruitment by violent extremist organizations - The objective of this exercise is to pinpoint which areas or population segments are struggling the most economically, with poverty, lack of jobs, economic marginalization, etc and document their situations and provide evidence of the economic challenges they face through data, reports, etc.

Week 9

Summary and evaluation of existing major economic initiatives, investments and international assistance programs and their impact on/connection to social unrest, ethnic tensions, radicalization, and terrorism

Week 9

Based on the stakeholder interviews and research, recommendations of three to five conflict sensitive, feasible, impactful, innovative, market driven,sustainable, and region-specific interventions to reduce social unrest, ethnic tensions, radicalization, and violent extremism through economic empowerment, increased inclusive economic opportunities, improved livelihoods

Weeks 10 -12

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● Livelihoods and inclusive growth

● Labor market and workforce development

● Trade and investment experts

9. Management and Coordination

The successful applicant will work under the guidance and supervision of the USAID/Guinea Economic Growth Office Private Sector Engagement Lead. The applicant should coordinate closely with the Guinean government's ministries and agencies dealing with economic issues and fragility, as well as other local and international implementers, donors and stakeholders. The applicant shall provide regular progress updates and share draft deliverables with the USAID Assessment Lead for review and feedback at agreed-upon intervals. Additionally, it is expected that a USAID representative may accompany the applicant during field interviews to ensure alignment with the assessment objectives and provide guidance as needed.