SATPC0036715 TAB 04 4 SOW.pdf

STATEMENT OF WORK

Launch Vehicle Probabilistic Reliability Risk Analysis Services

Purpose

The purpose of this effort is to perform launch vehicle probabilistic reliability risk analysis to verify compliance with NASA's mission requirements, including nuclear mission launch vehicle risk analysis, earth orbit failure probabilities, and other relevant studies as required by the Government.

Scope

The contractor shall perform Bayesian statistical and probabilistic reliability analysis for the DragonFly mission and candidate launch vehicles in this statement of work utilizing launch vehicle design reliability models and mission trajectory timelines. The probabilistic risk analysis shall be developed to include basic initiating events, accident initial conditions, and partition mission time phases necessary to develop accident outcome conditions. The contractor shall compile and utilize all available worldwide launch systems flight data, test data, and failure history information of parts, sub-systems, and integrated systems to develop failure probabilities and failure modes in support of NASA's risk assessments. The contractor shall perform Bayesian updates for the compiled database and appropriate similarity mapping of components, sub-systems, and integrated systems for NASA's required launch vehicles and missions.

This effort is in support of the nuclear launch approval processes. In order to meet requirements for the Presidential Memorandum on Launch of Spacecraft Containing Space Nuclear Systems (NSPM-20), NASA produces a data book. The data book includes chapters from the launch vehicle provider, other Government contractors, spacecraft project and the awardee of this contract. Specifically, the awardee of this contract shall be required to produce a Chapter 8, Accident Probabilities.

Task Definitions

The project tasks are defined below in Table 1 as combinations of sub-tasks defined in Table 2, which are applicable to the Falcon Heavy launch vehicle and reflect the more detailed breakdown of topics to be documented in the mission specific databook for the DragonFly project. This databook is tailored to the DragonFly mission and serves as a starting point for the NSPM-20 process. The contractor shall develop accident scenarios, event sequence diagrams (ESDs)/event fault trees (FTs) and perform quantification of failure probabilities and uncertainties for all prelaunch and post-liftoff Accident Initial Conditions (AICs) and Accident Outcome Conditions (AOCs) required to support development and release of a SAR Nuclear Databook for the DragonFly mission and Falcon Heavy and Vulcan candidate vehicles. The tasks and sub-tasks identified in Table 1 are the baseline tasks. All the sub-tasks defined in Table 2, other than the subset included in Table 1, and all the corresponding sub-tasks identified in Table 3, which are applicable to the Vulcan launch vehicle, are to be considered options to be awarded at a future TBD date.

Table 1 – Baseline Project Tasks

Baseline Project Tasks Corresponding Sub-tasks from Table 2 Full Set Task 1 - Draft Methodology Description

1A-1.1 Draft Prelaunch Methodology Description

1A-1.3 Draft Post-Liftoff Methodology Description

1A-2.1 Draft Accident Sequence Model Description

Task 2 - Draft Uncertainty & Sensitivity Analysis Description / Preliminary Probability Quantification

1A-1.6 Draft Sensitivity Analysis Methodology Description

1A-1.7 Draft Uncertainty Analysis Methodology Description

1A-3.1 Draft Prelaunch Accident Probability Quantification

1A-3.2 Draft Post-Liftoff Accident Probability Quantification

Task 3 - Draft Uncertainty & Sensitivity Analysis Execution

1A-5.1 Draft Sensitivity Analysis

1A-5.2 Draft Uncertainty Analysis

Table 2 – Falcon Heavy Databook Reference Sub-Tasks

Table 3 – Vulcan Databook Reference Sub-Tasks

Deliverables and Schedule

The Government shall supply launch vehicle design reliability models (or best available information) and mission trajectories/timelines for applicable tasks prior to contract authority to proceed (ATP).

For each task, the contractor shall submit a draft report at the dates specified below:

• Task 1: ATP plus 1 month

• Task 2: ATP plus 2 months

• Task 3: ATP plus 3 months

• All option tasks: Option ATP (Date of LSC inputs/updates) plus “TBD” months

More specifically, the deliverables for Task 1, Task 2 and Task 3 will be reports in chart format or full-text documents as appropriate. The Government shall supply review comments on the draft report within 30 days of receipt of the draft report. The contractor shall incorporate review comments from the Government team and incorporate them into the final report.

For each final report deliverable, all analytical inputs and tools, including, but not limited to, failure databases, engineering judgment, information obtained from expert elicitations, computer models, spreadsheets, Event Sequence Diagrams, Fault-Trees, Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) models, supporting memoranda, and references shall be included in the delivery package and referenced in the appropriate final report. The contractor's final report shall include narrative descriptions of all steps taken to complete the tasks above, all analytical inputs, models, spreadsheets, and data required for the Government to reproduce the results in the final report, and shall be submitted with the final report deliverable. The Government will have the authority to use and disseminate all data provided to reproduce the results, if desired.

NASA Technical Contacts

David Piryk David.A.Piryk@nasa.gov 321-861-3508

Jacob Roth Jacob.Roth@nasa.gov 321-867-1979 mailto:David.A.Piryk@nasa.gov mailto:Jacob.Roth@nasa.gov