Satement of Work (SOW) - Economic Forecasting.docx

Section C – Description/Specifications/Work Statement

PART I - SECTION C DESCRIPTION/SPECIFICATIONS/WORK STATEMENT ECONOMIC FORECASTING SERVICES

C.1 Introduction The Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) Office of Aviation Policy and Plans requires economic data to forecast aviation activity and workload for manpower planning, regulatory analysis, and aviation trust fund analysis. These forecasts use econometric models and forecasts of economic activity in the U.S., including Territories, World, and U.S. metro areas as key inputs. The Office of Financial Analysis is responsible for evaluating procurements and conferences requiring approval from the Chief Financial Officer and making recommendations. This office receives cost estimates for various procurement requests covering up to 15 years and containing economic assumptions on labor, material, travel, and other direct costs (ODCs). ODCs can include but are not limited to: special tooling, travel expenses, relocation expenses, pre-production and start-up costs, packaging and transportation costs, royalties, spoilage and rework, computer expenses, federal excise taxes, and reproduction costs. Evaluation of these estimates requires historical and future escalation information that must include measures at the national, state, and metropolitan statistical area levels respectively. In addition, as a forecasting tool, the FAA will use it to test the reasonableness of procurement planning assumptions and to help develop federal government negotiation positions for multi-year and multiple-year contracts.

Overall, economic analyses provided by subscription service for historical and time-series cost services and labor and material escalation services can be used by the Office of Financial Analysis to examine major acquisition programs, resulting in significant procurement savings and efficient allocation of resources. The Contractor must provide these subscription services to the Office of Aviation Policy and Plans to meet short- and long-term forecast requirements.

C.2 Tasks The Contractor must perform the following tasks: Task Area 1 – Economic Services, Forecasts, and Access; Task Area 2 – Economic Service Scenarios; and Task Area 3 - Subscriptions.

C.2.1 Task Area 1 Task Area 1 consists of the following:

C.2.1.1 World Economic Service Subscription to index services must include the following:

a. Client Service and Support: The Contractor will provide access to its senior staff to discuss forecasts and related planning issues.

b. Forecast Reports:

1. Forecast Report for Medium-Term Economic Outlook for Developed Economies:

Medium-term (five-year) annual-frequency forecasts for developed economies with detailed forecast tables and analysis for each developed economy. The reports are to be issued quarterly. Developed economies include Canada, U.S., Japan, Germany, France, Italy, United Kingdom, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and Turkey. Forecast data are also shown quarterly for Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, and the U.S. for the first two years of the forecast.

2. Forecast Report for Medium-Term Economic Outlook for Developing Countries and Eurasia:

Medium-term forecast reports for less-developed countries with key macroeconomic indicators and an executive summary for each of the developing economies (approximately 60 countries) are issued on a quarterly basis. Less developed economies are grouped into various regions.

3. Forecast Report for Long-Term World Economic Outlook:

Annual forecast of the global economy on an annual basis out to 2050. Forecast offers a long-term projection on a country-by-country basis. It incorporates key supply factors, such as population growth, labor force participation, productivity growth, fiscal and monetary policies, as well as regional trade and economic cooperation. These factors would be used to provide a comprehensive view of long-term growth.

4. Forecast Reports for Monthly Outlooks:

These reports provide monthly updates to five-year forecasts of key macroeconomic variables for 120 countries worldwide. In addition, these monthly outlooks provide an assessment of recent trends based on the high-frequency economic data for each country.

c. Electronic access to all related publications.

d. Outlook Conference: Two invitations to Vendor Economic Outlook Conferences.

e. Database Access: Online access to World Historical and Forecast Databases. Historical data is available on an annual basis from 1990. Access available to users identified in C2.1.2 and Task Area 3.US Economic Service

C.2.1.2 US Economic Service

Subscription services must include the following:

a. Client Service: Access to senior staff to discuss forecasts and related planning issues.

b. U.S. Outlook Executive Summary: A synopsis of the short-term outlook includes forecast assumptions and risks. Issued monthly.

c. Short-Term U.S. Economic Outlook Report: A report containing the short-term outlook with full commentary. Issued monthly.

d. Long-Term U.S. Economic Outlook Report: A report containing forecasts out to 2050 with trend, high-growth, and low-growth forecast scenarios with full commentary. Issued quarterly.

e. Two invitations to Vendor Economic Outlook Conferences. Held twice per year. Invitations must be received by the FAA, Office of Aviation Policy and Plans within thirty (30) days of the conference.

f. Electronic access to quarterly frequency short-term forecast databases. Contains approximately 1,300 key macro and industry series. Baseline forecast plus two alternative scenarios are updated monthly.

g. Electronic access to annual-frequency long-term forecast databases. The 25-year trend, cycle, high growth, and low growth scenarios are updated quarterly.

h. Electronic access to quarterly-frequency long-term forecast databases. The 25-year trend, high growth, and low growth scenarios are updated quarterly, while the 10-year trend and 10-year cycle scenarios are updated monthly.

i. Electronic access to all related publications. Provide 2 accounts for users in C2.1.2 and Task Area 3.

j. Electronic access to annual Historical Data back to 1960.

C.2.1.3 US Regional Service

Subscription index services must include the following:

a. Economic coverage of all 50 states, territories & DC, all metro areas (approximately 365), and all metro divisions (approximately 30).

b. Forecasts every quarter out to 2050 for all 50 states, Territories & DC and all metro areas (approximately 365) as well as all metro divisions (approximately 30).

c. Forecasts of key variables, including population, employment, personal income, households, retail sales, and housing starts. US Regional forecasts are all completed in conjunction with US Economic forecasts to ensure consistency across forecasts and electronic access to all regional economic service databases, including historic data back to 1990.

C.2.2 Task Area 2

This task will be required on an ad hoc basis to provide alternate scenarios, which will be provided on request.

· The Contractor must provide alternate forecast scenarios for regional economic service only.

· The scenarios provided must include both an optimistic and a pessimistic forecast.

· No more than two requests for the scenario sets will be provided yearly.

· The scenarios will be included under this contract.

C.2.3 Task Area 3 The contractor must provide subscriptions to the following economic services:

C.2.3.1 Price and Purchasing Subscription services must include the following:

Client Service and Support:

a. Access to the Contractor’s senior staff to discuss forecasts and related planning issues. Senior staff must be available for discussion Monday through Friday (excluding holidays) between 7:30 am and 4 pm (Eastern Standard Time), and email requests must be answered within three days of request. This is access to senior-level technical assistance during normal five-day work week during regular business hours.

b. Annual and Quarterly Purchasing and Pricing data for a minimum of ten years forecast and five-year historical for the United States and Territories by national, state, and metropolitan level in the following categories:

· Labor

· Commodities

· Travel

· Housing

· Construction

c. Database: Provide electronic access to all data, both historical and forecast, and associated publications to at least five users.

d. Reports: Provide electronic access to all reports, both historical and forecast, to at least five users. These users are for the forecast access and are associated with the accounts for APO.

e. Electronic access to data and reports must be available upon contract award and remain available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, including holidays.

C.3 Deliverables