Executed_RFI_(Notice,_ToC,_Results_Chain).pdf

Theory of Change - TOC

Section 1. ACTIVITY TITLE

The title of the anticipated activity is the Liberian Elections And Democracy (LEAD) Activity.

Section 2. THEORY OF CHANGE SUMMARY

By promoting increased leadership of marginalized groups in the political process, by supporting the institutionalization of civic education, and by building the capacity of the National Elections Commission and civil society organizations to independently manage and oversee all stages of the electoral cycle, the LEAD project will lay the foundation for a future in which elected representatives in Liberia increasingly govern in the interest of constituents.

Section 3. CONTEXT

Liberia experienced an historic democratic transition of power from President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, the continent’s first woman president, to Senator George Manneh Weah, on January 22, 2018. This was Liberia’s first peaceful transfer of presidential power through credible, democratic, free, and fair elections in over 70 years. The National Elections Commission (NEC) was, for the first time, fully in charge of managing the electoral process, with USAID and other international donors and partners playing a secondary role through technical and financial assistance. The NEC was widely commended by international and domestic observers for its administration of the elections. A USAID-funded study found that 94% of respondents considered the NEC’s performance organizing the 2017 elections as “fairly good” or “very good.”

Local civil society organization (CSO) networks fulfilled their critical role highlighting deficiencies during voter registration (VR) for the NEC to address and, following their observations at polling centers on election day, providing credibility for the final 2017 results.

In the wake of this critical milestone and despite marked improvements in the management of the electoral cycle over time, Liberia’s democracy remains fragile. According to a 2018 Afrobarometer study, while Liberians overwhelmingly support democratic elections as the best way to choose their leaders (84 percent prefer regular, open, and honest elections over other methods), they are increasingly dissatisfied with the way that democracy works for them. Six out of ten Liberians are dissatisfied with the way democracy is working in the country, a 38% increase from 2012.1

Two major factors contribute to the disconnect between voters and their elected representatives. First, some segments of the population are marginalized in the political process. For instance, despite having elected Africa’s first female president, Liberian women continue to remain underrepresented in political life in the legislature, political party leadership, senior ranks of the public service, and electoral administration. Youth were highly active in the campaign, turning out in large numbers at the major political rallies in Monrovia; however, youth who turned eighteen before the elections but after the registration period closed were not able to register or vote on elections day.

1 “AD257: Liberians endorse democracy but are dissatisfied with the way it’s working in their country.”

Afrobarometer. November 21, 2018, http://afrobarometer.org/publications/ad257-liberians-endorse-democracy-are-dissatisfied-way-its-working-their-country (accessed March 20, 2019) http://afrobarometer.org/publications/ad257-liberians-endorse-democracy-are-dissatisfied-way-its-working-their-country http://afrobarometer.org/publications/ad257-liberians-endorse-democracy-are-dissatisfied-way-its-working-their-country

Second, civic engagement is generally low, and there is widespread agreement on the need for expanding civic education in Liberia. Although the NEC is the clear lead and implementer of voter education, which typically occurs around the electoral period, there are different interpretations around how broad and continuous civic education should be provided to the citizens of Liberia, and who should be involved in this particular mandate. Elections observation reports from the Elections Coordinating Committee (ECC), Economic Community Of West African State (ECOWAS), and Electoral Institute Sustainable Democracy in Africa (EISA) following the 2017 elections all recommended that civic education should take place on a continual basis, and Liberian institutions should raise awareness of democratic norms and behavior among young people. Low civic education is evidenced when Liberians vote in return for short-term handouts instead of using their vote to hold elected representatives accountable for long-term performance.

Both the NEC’s administration of the elections and their transparency with the public was admirable during 2017 election and resulted in positive public opinion and confidence in the election results. However, the NEC must still continue striving to improve during future election cycles. Data collected internationally on elections and election management bodies shows that if improvements are not made in response to highlighted deficiencies, public opinion could backslide and trust in the electoral process could erode.2

In addition, the NEC and CSOs working in the elections space continue to rely on international donors to substantially support the administration and domestic observation of elections and to provide civic and voter education, including support from USAID and an ongoing United Nations Development Programme’s (UNDP) Liberian Electoral Cycle Project. NEC has improved in the areas of human resources, procurement processes, focusing on gender issues, and coordination with political parties, but there is room for additional capacity building. The NEC and CSOs must build on the progress they have made and continue to increase their organizational sustainability.

Section 4. KEY LEVERAGE POINTS

Long and established relationship with the NEC: USAID, other donors, and USAID implementing partners have positive working relationships with the NEC Board of Commissioners and NEC staff, which is key to successfully implementing any elections related activity. The NEC operates in a transparent manner that gives partners a good understanding of the agency’s strengths and weaknesses. The LEAD project will leverage that relationship in order to plan for targeted investments where they will be most cost effective.

Opportunity to Continue Civic Education Work in Progress: Liberians are broadly in favor of reintroducing civics into schools as evidenced by multiple election observation reports and post-election stakeholder dialogues and consultations for this TOC. The Government of Liberia (GOL) and international donors have already invested resources into developing a new civics curriculum. The Governance Commission and Ministry of Education (MOE) jointly produced a curriculum framework in 2014, fully funded by the GOL. The MOE leadership is in favor of further developing and introducing a new civic curriculum but they lack funding for this initiative, as their current budget only covers staff salaries.

2 Norris, Pippa and Alessandro Nai, eds. Election Watchdogs: Transparency, Accountability, and Integrity.

London: Oxford University Press. 2017.

Section 5. ANTICIPATED OUTCOMES

The purpose of the LEAD project is to support the deepening of democracy in Liberia so that elected representatives can increasingly govern in the interest of their constituents. Contributing to this purpose are three interrelated outcomes:

1. A reservoir of diverse, strong, forward thinking leaders with integrity develops: LEAD will build the skills of future leaders to run for office and work on campaigns. Skills will include fundraising, public speaking, and stakeholder engagement. Through LEAD, more first-time candidates will compete. The developing pool of leaders will include future elected representatives. Those who don’t immediately win office will join a growing cohort of emerging leaders working at the community level and within Government Ministries.

2. Citizens increasingly demand accountability: LEAD will support civic education in Liberia to teach future voters more about democractic processes and institutions in Liberia and their rights and responsibilities as a citizen of a democracy. This will lay the groundwork for a cultural shift so that future generations of Liberians will better understand the role of the government and what it means to be a good citizen, including voting and holding elected representatives accountable. Outcome 1 will also contribute to Outcome 2, as the developing pool of credible leaders will include civil society voices holding elected representatives accountable.

3. Liberian voters continue to trust the electoral process: The NEC will continue improving its performance in managing the 2020 and 2023 elections especially focusing on reducing errors and challenges during voter registration periods. CSOs will continue to perform election observation and reporting at a professional level. Both the NEC and CSOs will improve their organizational sustainability, reducing the need for donor support to execute daily tasks.

Section 6. MAJOR ASSUMPTIONS

Strong CSO engagement in the electoral processes will continue: Two existing domestic coalitions, the Elections Coordinating Committee and the Liberian Election Observation Network, observed the 2017 elections. Many community-based organizations participated in civic and/or voter education around the elections. Our TOC makes the assumption that these groups will continue their commitment to this critical work as a partner with the NEC, and that the enabling environment in Liberia will remain open to CSO activity in Liberia.

Good collaboration among International Donors will continue: Continued formal coordination through Elections Technical Working Group meetings (chaired by the NEC) and through the Democracy Working Group, plus additional informal coordination, will be critical to the success of the LEAD project.

The Government of Liberia (GOL) provides sufficient resources for election administration: The NEC received a higher proportion of funding through the Liberian government budgeting process to manage the 2017 electoral cycle compared to earlier cycles, an important step in Liberia’s journey away from dependency on international donors and towards self-reliance. Our TOC assumes that this positive trend continues so that donor support continues to decrease over time.

Beneficiaries of leadership training will become viable candidates and/or community leaders: Our TOC assumes that if proposed interventions cultivate more forward leaning leaders with integrity, skills gained during the project will contribute to graduates’ future success running as political candidates or acting as community leaders.

Increasing degree of civic knowledge will lead to behavior change: Our TOC assumes that if citizens have a higher degree of civic knowledge they will behave differently as participants in a democracy. Informed citizens will be more likely to support candidates with strong platforms and hold elected leaders to account for actions or inactions.

It is impossible to predict behaviors with certainty, so these assumptions must be monitored closely throughout and following the life of the project. The TOC will be revisited and adjusted as necessary.

Section 7. INTERVENTIONS

LEAD will implement interventions under three integrated strategic approaches, each contributing to one or more of the three results. See the accompanying Results Chain for a visual representation of how the approaches are integrated.

Strategic Approach 1: Promote increased accountable leadership of marginalized groups in the political process (TBD%)

The LEAD project will build the skills of women and youth to participate in the political process, including but not limited to working on campaigns and running for office. USAID seeks evidence-based input from stakeholders on interventions that would build these skills and contribute to the development of a new pool of leaders that will exhibit leadership with integrity in a variety of ways including holding office, working for government ministries, working in local government, working as a community leader, and/or working in advocacy.

LEAD will coordinate with other organizations working in this space and will consider leveraging synergies in terms of both time and money that would broaden LEAD’s interventions to additional marginalized groups.

Strategic Approach 2: Support the institutionalization of civic education (TBD%)

The LEAD project will contribute to the establishment in Liberia of a mechanism(s) delivering civic education as a continuous process, not tied to a particular point in the electoral cycle.

USAID seeks evidence-based input from stakeholders on interventions that can take place during a five-year timeline that would lay the groundwork for civic education to be integrated into Liberian institutions and society. Interventions could include supporting the Ministry of Education, working with civil society groups and or the media.

Strategic Approach 3: Build capacity of NEC and CSOs to independently manage and oversee all stages of the electoral cycle (TBD%)

LEAD intends to support the NEC to improve VR processes and to maintain a high level of performance on elections day for the 2020 senatorial and 2023 general electoral cycles. In consultations to date, stakeholders have identified communications, voter education, data management, monitoring and evaluation, gender, and IT as areas where improvements are needed.

LEAD intends to support CSOs monitoring and reporting on elections and delivering civic and/or voter education. Support will build organizational sustainability.

Support to the NEC and to CSOs will be targeted, focusing on areas where investments will have the highest impact. LEAD anticipates that this support will prioritize training of institutions over training of individuals, building on investments to date and preparing organizations to manage more processes without daily support from international partners and consultants.

Additional Interventions: Targets of Opportunity

During the life of the project several relevant developments may occur that would require increased support to the NEC to implement changes and to CSOs to monitor and advocate during the changes. To ensure that USAID does not provide funds for initiatives that do not materialize but to ensure flexibility to work towards LEAD project outcomes, USAID could consider provide funding for support in additional areas if opportunities arise.

● Redistricting: In early 2019 Liberia embarked on a new census process. If the census is completed during the life of the LEAD project the NEC will work to delineate new voting districts based on the new census data. Additional support may be needed.

● Implementing Electoral Reform: Today in Liberia there is momentum around electoral reform responding to issues and challenges raised by Liberians and international observers during the election. If reform takes place, additional support may be needed to implement (and monitor the implementation of) reforms.

● Biometric Voter Registration: The Government of Liberia is considering investing in migrating to a system that leverages biometric data collected for a national civil registry.

Stakeholders have shown interest hoping that using biometrics for VR will increase electoral integrity and will reduce costs of elections management in the long run. If the GOL finalizes a strategic plan and timeline and devotes resources to a migration, additional support may be needed during the transition.

● Future Electoral Reform: If the referendum does not occur and new issues are flagged during the 2020 elections additional support may be needed to implement and advocate for reform.

● Constitutional Referendum: There is a general consensus among Liberian stakeholders that a potential constitutional referendum on electoral reform proposals (for example, to change the election date) should be held concurrently with the 2020 senatorial elections to leverage the logistical operations already taking place. If the consensus shifts and Liberia holds a stand-alone referendum during the life of the project, additional support may be needed.

Figure 1: LEAD Results Framework, showing the LEAD TOC Purpose, Outcomes, and Strategic Approaches. To see an expansion of the Results Framework to include Results, Interventions, and how the three Strategic Approaches are integrated, please refer to the Results Chain on the next page (Figure 2)

Liberians understand role of the government and what it means to be a good citizen

Elected Representatives Increasingly Govern in the Interest of Constituents

Citizens increasingly demand accountability

Reservoir of diverse, strong, forward thinking leaders develops

Liberians voters continue to trust electoral process

More women serve in the Legislature i

More women with ties to rural communities run for office and work on campaigns i

More youth work on campaigns i

Support the institutionalization of civic education

Promote increased leadership of marginalized groups in the political process

Build capacity of NEC and CSOs to independently manage and oversee all stages of electoral cycle

Trained candidates present clear policy platforms

Provide training

Civic Education integrated into Liberian institutions and society

Rates of registration and voting: women stay high, youth increases i

Civic education curriculum established in lower and upper school i

Support MOE Establish civic ed youth clubs

Public trust in 2020 and 2023 election results and processes remains high

Domestic CSOs Increase Organizational sustainability

NEC increases organizational sustainability

Provide systems-focused trainings

Provide systems-focused trainings

Domestic Election Obervers monitor and accurately report on the electoral process

Critical Assumptions

Strong CSO engagement in the electoral processes continues

Collaboration among donors and partners continues

GOL provides sufficient resources so that NEC relies less on donor support

Citizens engage in political processes

Women and youth gain skills to run for office and work on campaigns i

Support civic ed radio programs

CSOs deliver voter education

NEC effectively administers 2020 and 2023 voter registration and election

More women and youth fill community leadership roles i i

Key

Strategic Approach

Intervention

Result

Outcome

Purpose

Indicator

Figure 2: LEAD Results Chain

Elections Design Results Chain 4.25.19