RFI,_Economic_Restructuring_Activity_final.pdf

Request for Information USAID/Burma’s Economic Restructuring Activity

Background Information and Questions

Status of Economic Restructuring Undergoing profound and rapid change, Burma is now in the early stages of a historic transition: Military rule has given way to a more open society and a democratic leaning government; the previously closed economic system is being replaced with an open market economy; and, the once isolated country is now actively engaged in regional and global affairs. Suppression of freedom of association and expression has given way to a proliferation of politically and advocacy-focused organizations and a diverse media. After decades of internal conflict, a declared aim of the new government is to achieve peace and unity among the different peoples of the federal union. The implications of ongoing conflict, including the on-going crisis in Rahkine, will need to be considered in the future activity.

The National League for Democracy (NLD) came to power in 2016 with strong popular support and a promise of peace, unity, and inclusive economic growth. Expectations are extremely high that the government will deliver on the economic progress needed to enable political stability and development.1 Hope is tempered by the awareness that public institutions lack capacity; and there is risk that the reform process could be captured by crony capitalism and the return of the old political order.2

Burma’s challenge is to stimulate broad-based, sustained economic growth throughout the country focusing on policy reforms and investments in sectors that will have the greatest positive impact as quickly as possible. This will build broad political support for further reforms, ideally releasing a virtuous cycle that will be critical for sustaining democratic reforms and the peace process.

Illustrative Objective of a New Economic Reform Activity USAID/Burma is considering a new activity with the following Objective and Sub-Objectives:

Objective: Enabling Environment for Private Sector-led Growth Strengthened Sub-Objective 1: Increased Capacity to Manage Economic Reform Sub-Objective 2: Improved Policy, Legislative, and Regulatory Environment for Economic Reform Sub-Objective 3: Expanded Access to Finance

Sub-Objective 1: Increased Capacity to Manage Economic Reform

Illustrative Results:

● The Central Bank of Myanmar, Ministry of Planning and Finance, domestic think tanks and other key institutions shaping economic policy successfully advance economic reforms.

● Capacity to execute economic policy increased in government.

● Public access to reliable economic statistics increased.

● Public comment process improved for all segments of society.

Questions

1. What approaches should USAID consider to achieve this sub-objective?

1 A plurality of poll respondents cite the economy as the primary priority for the new government. International Republican Institute, 2017. http://www.iri.org/sites/default/files/2017-8-22_burma_poll_presentation.pdf 2 MYANMAR 2014: Civic Knowledge and Values in a Changing Society, The Asia Foundation, 2014.

2. What models for government capacity building have been most successful in transitional, complex environments similar to Burma? Please provide reference to specific studies to support any recommendations.

3. What assessments of government capacity and needs have already been conducted?

4. Which functions should be prioritized for capacity building?

5. Embedded Advisers

a. What are the pros and cons of using embedded advisers to increase capacity to manage economic reform?

b. What are the best approaches for managing potential communication problems between embedded advisers and the trainee staff?

6. Continuing Education Abroad

a. What are the pros and cons of building capacity by sponsoring education abroad?

b. What models for degree and non-degree education in the U.S. are most cost-effective?

c. What models are available to minimize the time trainees spend away from their home office?

Sub-Objective 2: Improved Policy, Legislative, and Regulatory Environment for Economic Reform

Illustrative Results:

● Business environment improves.

● Central Bank financed portion of government budget reduced.

● Milestones achieved in banking liberalization (market determined interest rate, etc).

● Quantity and quality of economic reporting improved.

● (Note: revision of this list is expected as government does or does not make progress against its current reform agenda.)

Questions

1. What approaches should USAID consider to achieve this sub-objective?

2. What policy reforms should be prioritized given the current state of economy and political feasibility?

Cite evidence.

3. What approaches to economic reform have been successful elsewhere in the world and are replicable in

Burma?

Sub-Objective 3: Expanded Access to Finance

Illustrative Results:

● Access to credit improved across all parts of the economy (households, enterprises of all sizes, government, agriculture sector, etc.).

● Savings increased.

● Mobile payment (mobile money) regulatory system implemented.

Questions

1. What approaches should USAID consider to achieve this sub-objective?

2. What approaches to increasing savings have been most successful around the world?

3. How could partnerships with banks and international financiers improve the effectiveness of USAID’s approach?

4. What approaches to increasing financial access have been successful elsewhere in the world and are replicable in Burma?

General Questions

1. What other considerations should USAID address in planning this activity?

2. Listing specific and practical actions, what could be done to design the activity to promote the democratic transition?

3. Listing specific and practical actions, what could be done to design the activity with awareness to the conflict dimensions of Burma?

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