RFI - PBGC Longevity Risk Review.pdf

Request for Information

Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC)

Longevity Risk Review Project

Original Set Aside: N/A Product Service Code: B599- Special Studies/ Analysis- Other NAICS Code: 541611- Administrative Management and General Management Consulting Services Place of Performance: Washington, DC 20005, USA

1. Description

The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) is seeking information regarding potential contractor support services for developing assessment and measurement tools related to longevity risk in the Single- Employer and Multiemployer Insurance Programs for the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation’s (PBGC) Policy, Research, and Analysis Department (PRAD).

THIS IS A REQUEST FOR INFORMATION (RFI) ONLY. This RFI is issued solely for information and planning purposes – it does not constitute a solicitation or a promise to issue a solicitation in the future.

This request for information does not commit the Government to contract for any supplies or services whatsoever. Further, PBGC is not at this time seeking quotations or proposals and will not accept unsolicited quotations or proposals. Respondents are advised that the U.S. Government will not pay for any information or administrative costs incurred in response to this RFI; all costs associated with responding to this RFI will be solely at the interested party’s expense. Not responding to this RFI does not preclude participation in any future solicitation, if any is used.

2. Background

The PBGC is a Government-owned corporation, established under Title IV of Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) of 1974 as amended. Background and mission information is available at https://www.pbgc.gov/about. PRAD is developing methods for understanding and measuring key risks for the Single-Employer and Multiemployer Insurance Programs. The purpose of the Longevity Risk Review Project is to analyze and assess PBGC's longevity risk and help us develop tools to estimate longevity risk related to the liability for benefits payable to participants in plans that are trusteed by PBGC or are paid financial assistance under ERISA Section 4261.

PBGC currently assesses longevity risk by considering the rough impact of extreme scenarios such as:

Elimination of cancer or heart disease as causes of death; or An additional 1.0% reduction in mortality rate in every future year.

PBGC wants to consider the potential impact of extreme but plausible levels of improvement in longevity.

PRAD desires to draw on resources with deep expertise, research experience and data to support a view of longevity risk for its insurance programs. Changes in the longevity of PBGC's participant population could significantly change the liability for future benefits that the program is obligated to pay. The assessment of risk related to future changes in longevity is complex and requires specialized expertise and experience.

PBGC is seeking to contract with an organization with deep actuarial expertise in measuring mortality and longevity with the objective of identifying extreme but plausible scenarios and estimating their impact on PBGC’s Single Employer and Multiemployer Program liabilities. Any estimates and measurement tools would be based on potential future scenarios impacting longevity development in populations like the PBGC participant population.

Deliverables

Specific analyses would be discussed and agreed upon by PRAD and might include:

Splitting mortality uncertainty into random uncertainty, base rate uncertainty, and future trend uncertainty.

Quantifying the potential negative correlation between the economy and mortality in terms of impact on pension obligations – good economies might be correlated with longer life expectancy.

Identifying the different impacts of extending the maximum lifetime and increasing life expectancy relative to a constant maximum lifetime.

Developing a perspective on whether mortality improvement tends to mean revert – e.g. that mortality improvement may slow down for populations where it has recently improved faster.

Framing scenarios, like curing cancer, as a difference in the rate of improvement being assumed.

The Contractor will meet with PRAD staff to discuss and identify final project deliverables. The analysis will include formulation of scenarios and/or ways to model mortality uncertainty. Specific deliverables include:

Benchmarking PBGC’s annuitant population against standard mortality tables.

Reviewing a recent mortality experience study for completeness and identifying opportunities to enhance the analysis (i.e., using zip codes).

Assessing historical mortality improvement experience for PBGC’s population.

Developing scenarios and mortality modeling techniques for understanding and assessing PBGC risk.

Use of PBGC-specific data would be subject to PBGC’s data security requirements. The final deliverable will be a report that includes the findings of the analysis outlined in the objectives. It is anticipated that the project will be completed over a 6-month period.

PRAD is seeking information on how a qualified contractor could provide these services.

3. Responses

3.1. PBGC is seeking feedback on the following.

3.1.1. Is your company capable of performing the requirement?

3.1.2. Are the requirements clear and detailed enough to provide a reasonable proposal? If not, please indicate which requirements should be clarified.

3.2. Your company’s response should include:

3.2.1. Company name

3.2.2. Company point of contact, phone number, and email address.

3.2.3. Company’s socio-economic status under NAICS Code 541611- Administrative

Management and General Management Consulting Services.

3.2.4. A document including comments on the requirements and performance standards.

3.2.5. A brief, no more than two (2) pages, description of the capability of assessing and developing tools to measure longevity risk in the Single-Employer and Multiemployer Insurance Programs

3.2.6. Optional - Any other feedback to the Government.

4. Responses

Format-

The respondent shall submit its response via email, a Microsoft Word document, or an Adobe PDF document.

5. Questions

Questions regarding this Request for Information (RFI) shall be submitted in writing by email to the Contracting Officer, Carl Baldus at Baldus.Carl@pbgc.gov, and the contract specialists, Tre Brummell and Damian Bell at Brummell.Joseph@pbgc.gov and Bell.Damian@pbgc.gov, respectively, by 10:00 am on Wednesday, 06/12/2024.

6. Summary

This is a Request for Information (RFI) only to identify sources that can provide longevity risk assessment services to PBGC. The information provided in this RFI is subject to change and is not binding on the Government. PBGC has not made a commitment to procure any of the items discussed, and release of this RFI should not be construed as a such a commitment or authorization to incur cost for which reimbursement would be required or sought. All submissions become Government property and will not be returned.