Attachment 1 - Sources Sought PWS Draft (1).pdf

Dr aft

Performance Work Statement

NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Project Title: California Drought Early Warning Dashboard: A web-based tool to identify multi-sectoral drought hazard indicators and expected impacts in California

1) Background

Drought early warning systems are essential to identify drought hazards and define response actions to minimize these risks. A key mandate of the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Public Law (NIDIS Act of 2006, P.L. 109-430; NIDIS Reauthorization Acts 2014, P.L. 113-86 and 2018, P.L.

115-423) is to provide drought early warning information to the nation. But identifying specific drought conditions in complex water systems—with multiple water users relying on different supply portfolios—that usually include water storage and conveyance systems with convoluted operations and regulatory frameworks, is a challenge. As a consequence, the link between specific hazards created by droughts, and the potential impacts, including economic, for different water-reliant sectors is poorly understood in these complex systems, which are common in the American West.

As a result of the 2019 NIDIS Coping with Drought Competition, a team including researchers from the Public Policy Institute of California, the University of California Berkeley, the University of California Merced, and the University of California Riverside—proposed to address this main issue by conducting a project to link indicators of drought hazard to multi-sectoral impacts in California. This first phase included an analysis of four sectors and development of a proof-of-concept deliverables such as 1) a framework to develop multi-sectoral drought hazard indicators taking into account the water grid, 2) an innovative methodology for linking drought hazard and impacts, 3) open access data and methods for drought hazard indicators and impacts, and 4) exploratory mapping tools, by using an extensive engagement process that helped co-developing these products. These deliverables set forth the foundations for estimating drought hazard indicators in highly-managed complex water systems and show how to link sector-specific drought hazard indicators with drought impacts in these systems.

To continue the development of a more comprehensive approach to drought hazard and expected impacts in complex water systems, NIDIS funded work for a one-year follow up project titled “Refining multi-sectoral drought hazard indicators oriented to assess drought impacts.” The overall objective of this one year project was to refine the sector-specific drought hazard indicators for four sectors (cities, small communities, agriculture and the environment) and all hydrologic regions in California, with the objective of linking drought hazard indicators with impacts. Specifically, this project would complete the statewide data gathering to refine and apply the framework to obtain multi-sectoral drought hazard indicators for all sectors and hydrologic regions in California, while defining relevant sectoral impacts that will orient the definition of the hazard indicators. Although the scope of this project was all hydrologic regions in California, the refinement https://www.drought.gov/drought-research/linking-indicators-drought-hazard-multi-sectoral-impacts-application-california https://www.drought.gov/drought-research/linking-indicators-drought-hazard-multi-sectoral-impacts-application-california of the sector-specific methodology for defining drought for users with complex portfolios focused on the Central Valley regions, and Southern California.

These previous projects have set forth the methodologies to define drought hazards for different users and sectors in California and link these hazards with expected impacts, but it cannot still be considered a final product to release to water users given the complexities of these methodologies. Therefore, there is a need to compile all this information in a format that can be useful for decision-making with the final goal of mitigating drought risks in California, while providing insights to other regions in the American West.

This broad goal is in alignment with NIDIS’s mission to improve the nation’s capacity to proactively manage drought-related risk by providing those affected with the best available information.

2) Objectives

The objective of this project is for the contractor to develop a web-based platform built on previous NOAA NIDIS investment to identify sector-specific drought hazard indicators and expected drought impacts for four sectors (cities, small communities, agriculture and the environment) and all hydrologic regions in California.

The project, that will build upon the results of the two completed projects “Linking Indicators of Drought Hazard to Multi-Sectoral Impacts: An Application to California” and “Refining multi-sectoral drought hazard indicators oriented to assess drought impacts”, will complete the data gathering to develop and apply the framework to obtain multi-sectoral drought hazard indicators and the methodology for linking drought hazards and impacts for all sectors at the hydrologic region scale, and in some cases at sub-regional scales, in California. With all sectoral results, the final goal of the project is for the contractor to develop a demonstration online web portal to compile all drought indicators and expected impacts to be updated monthly with readily available data for California. Given the interest in providing a useful tool for decision-making and policy, the contractor will rely heavily on input from state agency representatives and other relevant stakeholders to ground truth research questions and assumptions, and to co-produce the final products. Finally, the contractor will also be engaging with NOAA-NIDIS representatives to disseminate the methodologies and results, and to assess the scalability of this tool beyond California.

3) Scope

The project will complete the methodologies and gather statewide data for each sector to develop the sector-specific drought indicators and the expected drought impacts, to develop the demonstration web application.

The spatial scope will include all the hydrologic regions of the state of California, and in some cases sub-regional applications analysis will be developed. Although the application is oriented to California, the methods will be developed to be potentially scalable to other states or geographic regions.

The main limitations are related to the data requirements to produce the specific drought hazard indicators or impacts. For instance, to develop the drought hazards, state level water delivery information is scarce and not always accurate, while some other sources of state level data—such as groundwater levels—are not available at the desired temporal or spatial scales. State level drought impact data is also not available for most of the sectors, and has to be developed or estimated from other sources of information.

4) Tasks

To achieve the goal of the project, the team will develop four main activities, with their respective subtasks:

Task 1: Develop comprehensive statewide sector-specific drought hazard indicators

Under this task the contractor will refine the specific methodologies for each hydrological basin to develop sector-specific drought hazard indicators for cities, small communities, agriculture and freshwater ecosystems.

▪ Subtask 1.1: Contractor will develop user-specific (or sector-specific) drought indicators for all hydrologic regions, including sub-regional applications o Milestone 1.1.1: Sector-specific drought indicators for hydrologic regions: August 2026 o Milestone 1.1.2: Sub-regional applications of sector-specific drought indicators for cities, irrigation, groundwater dependent communities, and the environment: February 2027

▪ Subtask 1.2: Contractor will develop drought hazard visualizations incorporating feedback from stakeholders o Milestone 1.2.1: Drought initial hazard indicator visualizations: December 2026 o Milestone 1.2.2: Drought hazard indicator visualizations: August 2027

Task 2: Develop “real-time” estimations of drought impacts as a function of drought hazard indicators for different sectors

The contractor will gather comprehensive data at the state level for exposure and vulnerability metrics for each sector to link drought hazard with expected multi-sectoral impacts, and compute an estimation of drought impacts, using a risk framework and a combination of quantitative and qualitative approaches, associating drought hazards with expected impacts.

▪ Subtask 2.1: Contractor will gather relevant and comprehensive data of exposure and vulnerability for all sectors o Milestone 2.1.1: Exposure and vulnerability database: August 2026

▪ Subtask 2.2: Contract will provide an estimation of drought impact as a function of drought hazard for each sector at the hydrologic region scale, and at sub-regional level in some cases o Milestone 2.2.1: “Real-time” multi-sectoral drought impact estimation: March 2027

Task 3: Develop a demonstration web application for statewide multi-sectoral drought hazard indicators and expected impacts

The contractor will provide all the necessary work to develop the final demonstration web application. It will include web development. First, the contractor will develop a mock up, then develop the web application after incorporating feedback from relevant stakeholders.

▪ Subtask 3.1: Contractor will define an initial mock-up for review and gather feedback for development o Milestone 3.1.1: Web mock-up: August 2026

▪ Subtask 3.2: Contractor will provide final development of the publicly available demonstration web application o Milestone 3.2.1: Web application online: August 2027

Task 4: Use a collaborative process to develop these support decision tools

The contractor will seek out partnerships with relevant stakeholders for ground truthing assumptions and producing significant results. The Government will form an advisory group that will give feedback in different stages of the project, and will also look for other stakeholders to work closely in relevant case studies. Furthermore, the contractor will also disseminate the results by publishing results for non-technical audiences and convening public events.

▪ Subtask 4.1: Engagement and outreach o Define an advisory group of relevant stakeholders and perform an initial kick-off meeting

(year 1), one or more workshops to gather feedback on the project activities, and a final event to disseminate the final results of the project.

▪ Milestone 4.1.1: Advisory group kick-off meeting: January 2026

▪ Milestone 4.1.2: 2nd year workshop: October 2026

▪ Milestone 4.1.3: Final event: August 2027 o Produce research outcomes for non-technical audiences. The contractor will develop at least four policy briefs or blog posts (at least one for each sector) on relevant topics related to the development of drought indicators and impacts. These will be completed in coordination with NIDIS and its communications staff and Drought.gov.

▪ Milestone 4.1.4: Research outcomes: publications to be determined

Task 5: Analysis of scalability

The contractor will engage with NOAA/NIDIS staff to disseminate the methodologies and the results produced along the project, looking for feedback from other NOAA-NIDIS funded projects, but also to analyze the potential scalability of the project beyond California.

▪ Subtask 5.1: Workshops o Contractor will host two workshops that will be organized by the team members to engage with NOAA-NIDIS staff:

▪ Milestone 5.1.1: Workshop focused on methodologies and scalability: June 2026

▪ Milestone 5.1.2: Workshop #2 focused on visualization and scalability: June 2026

5) Deliverables/Milestones

The contractor commits to the following deliverables to achieve the project objectives:

Task 1: Develop comprehensive statewide sector-specific drought hazard indicators o Deliverable 1.1. An open-source repository with a summary of the methods, the code and the data to produce the sector specific drought hazard indicators for all hydrologic regions of California, including visualizations. This might be in draft form for review and posterior incorporation of feedback.

▪ Initial version delivered by August 2026

▪ Final version delivered by August 2027

Task 2: Develop “real-time” estimations of drought impacts as a function of drought hazard indicators for different sectors o Deliverable 2.1. An exposure and vulnerability state level database for all sectors to be included in the open-source repository. This might be in draft form for review and posterior incorporation of feedback. August 2026.

o Deliverable 2.2. An open-source repository with a summary of the methods, the code and the state level data to produce the multi-sectoral estimation of drought impacts as a function of drought hazard indicators, including visualizations. This might be in draft form for review and posterior incorporation of feedback. August 2027.

Task 3: Develop a web application for statewide multi-sectoral drought hazard indicators and expected impacts o Deliverable 3.1. A graphical mock-up of the different web pages proposed. This might be in draft form for review and posterior incorporation of feedback. August 2026.

o Deliverable 3.2. A publicly accessible online demonstration web platform developed. August

Task 4: Use a collaborative process to develop these support decision tools o Deliverable 4.1. A document describing the engagement process.

▪ Initial version delivered by August 2026

▪ Final version delivered by August 2027 o Deliverable 4.2. Publications with dates to be determined

Task 5: Analysis of scalability o Deliverable 5.1: Workshop focused on methodologies and scalability: June 2026 o Milestone 5.2: Workshop focused on visualization and scalability: June 2027

In terms of transferring all the information for the potential use of NIDIS after the finalization of the project, the contractor will ensure that all the data and code generated in the project associated with the deliverables will be stored in a public repository (such as the Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Science, CUAHSI, Hydroshare repository) and maintained for 3 years after the end of the project.

Please note, no government system will need to be accessed, no additional IT resources from an existing OAR FISMA system will be required, and there is no cloud or generative AI element that needs additional authorization.

6) Project Management

The project contractor will hold quarterly check-ins with NIDIS staff and monthly team check-ins to track progress on activities and tasks.

7) Assumptions, Dependencies and Constraints

The main assumption of this project is that drought impacts can be derived from well-defined drought indicators. Therefore, there are clear dependencies on the relationship between the definition of the drought indicators, the definition of the drought impacts, and the estimation of their linkages.

Consequently, the main constraints will be related to the availability of state level data on drought indicators and drought impacts to demonstrate workable methodologies. On the drought indicators side, the main constraints are related with the spatial and temporal availability of data: for instance, California groundwater level data is in most of the cases only available twice a year and with limited spatial resolution, and other indicators can have similar problems. Second, the approach to obtain state level drought indicators for users with a complex water portfolio relies on the availability of water deliveries for water users, and the delivery data is also constrained (for instance, DWR’s water balance data is only available for the 2002-2019 period).

Third, the definition of drought impacts is not consistent, so this will be one of the objectives of the project.

And finally, and as one of the main goals of the project, the relationships between drought indicators, water deliveries, and drought impacts is not simple, so there are obvious constraints on the ability to obtain meaningful relationships.

8) Government-Furnished Property, Material, Equipment, or Information (if applicable, e.g. GFP, GFM, GFE, or GFI)

Not applicable.

9) Travel

The project will involve some travel within the United States. Specifically, 2 trips from Davis-Sacramento to Denver to convene workshops, or to meet with relevant stakeholders. Domestic travel to present the results in technical conferences is also expected (e.g. 1 trip to the AGU Annual Fall Meeting in New Orleans).